Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, A_P said:

Sigh. I don't buy crisps although I will eat them if they're about. I don't buy any junk food for that matter. I was making a point inflation is being hidden through every facet. I do buy their steaks though when they've been double/triple reduced. I don't have a decent butchers in town to buy their steaks or support sadly. I know they're made up the reason for seeking clarification from DB what his figures relate to. Genuine inflation or the made up numbers so much worse. Yes I know they're personal that's why I said I'm nearly at double.

It was tongue in cheek, i was agreeing with you.

I did buy a packet of crisps recently, the contents are shocking and the bloody size of mars bars these days. still. i can't eat them anymore, make me teeth hurt.

[Bobthebuilder]

Anecdotal on the credit deflation.

My wife was turned down for a 0% credit card balance transfer last week. No mortgage, ok wage job, first time in her life. Crikey.

[leonardratso]

she obviously wont go delinquent, cant be having that.

its the batman H&S;

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, A_P said:

Just to confirm with your figures do you mean these will be the published CPI figures or genuine inflation numbers. Seems to me from my own tracking I'm nearly at double figures already this year. This doesn't even count for the shrinkflation/crapflation going on. Crisps are mostly air now  Anyone checked out how thin a waitrose sirloin steak is these days? Not much thicker than what you find in a wafer thin sandwich meat packets

US official inflation numbers.I agree there is already a lot of inflation around,food has been going up a lot lately etc,but across the whole economy.Most people forget it but inflation actually becomes a loss of faith in the currency hence why certain assets run hot when inflation spikes.I also think most pensions will be destroyed by the inflation in the next cycle,most have uplifts of 5% max and 15% inflation will destroy the value over just a few years.

I use the public transport sector as tracking stocks for when we are seeing a turn,and they have been doing very well the last month or so.Telcos etc are spluttering down still as people worry about debt,classic end of dis-inflation stuff as they miss the huge free cash increases as price start to move higher across the sector.Very happy with how things are going so far,just need the PMs to run hot.

[Democorruptcy]

25 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Vodafone down 4.3% today is everyone just overreacting

Vodafone is the latest business concerned about the security of the smartphone maker after several foreign governments, including America and Australia, have considered banning or already banned Huawei’s devices to fend off possible leaks, cyberattacks and spying.

Vodafone will only stop buying new equipment at the “core” — a critical part of its network — where it uses just a “small amount” of Huawei devices.

Carriers are reluctant to pivot away from Huawei unless they are forced to. It has spurred competition, driving down equipment costs, and its equipment has become deeply enmeshed in networks in many big markets. Vodafone uses Huawei in the core of its Spanish network and some other smaller markets, but most of its spending with the Chinese vendor has been radio-access network gear.

Is Brexit, EU problems playing a part?

HL suggest Europe is 75%+ of their profits

Quote

 

Vodafone used to be more about the growth potential of India and emerging markets than its European operations.

Recent deals, to buy Central and Eastern European assets from Liberty Global and deconsolidate the Indian business, change all that. The Liberty deal is Vodafone's biggest for 18 years, and, should it go through, would mean Europe becomes responsible for over 75% of group profits.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vodafone-group-plc-usd0.20-2021/share-research

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

13 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

she obviously wont go delinquent, cant be having that.

its the batman H&S;

The daily swings have been incredible lately after mentioning them the other day, I wished I'd stepped in after the +60% day. Would I have taken the profit or greed raised it's head.

Barnsey it wasn't me who mentioned them this time.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

The daily swings have been incredible lately after mentioning them the other day, I wished I'd stepped in after the +60% day. Would I have taken the profit or greed raised it's head.

Barnsey it wasn't me who mentioned them this time.

Sold for 2.10 at market open on the RNS release day, note to self, setting stop losses will NOT save your ass in a panic!

[leonardratso]

54 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Sold for 2.10 at market open on the RNS release day, note to self, setting stop losses will NOT save your ass in a panic!

i wouldnt worry too much about it, i jumped into irv with a coupla hundred when it tanked, was supposed to catch the bounce, never came, so am holding on for a slow trickle up to my target of 18-20p if it makes it, good, if not fuck it. Didnt want to hold it for more than a couple of days, now a month, pah, greedy. No worries it isnt much down yet, dont want to hang about in shit like that for too long, esp if its long term 3-5 p a share. just wanted to raise some beer money really.

[MrXxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

US official inflation numbers.I agree there is already a lot of inflation around,food has been going up a lot lately etc,but across the whole economy.Most people forget it but inflation actually becomes a loss of faith in the currency hence why certain assets run hot when inflation spikes.I also think most pensions will be destroyed by the inflation in the next cycle,most have uplifts of 5% max and 15% inflation will destroy the value over just a few years.

I use the public transport sector as tracking stocks for when we are seeing a turn,and they have been doing very well the last month or so.Telcos etc are spluttering down still as people worry about debt,classic end of dis-inflation stuff as they miss the huge free cash increases as price start to move higher across the sector.Very happy with how things are going so far,just need the PMs to run hot.

Interesting point about the uplift...so if you have a DB pension and the provider offers you a buy out (as per your friend the other week), then in the situation you are describing it would make sense to take it and invest yourself?!

[invalid]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anecdotal on the credit deflation.

My wife was turned down for a 0% credit card balance transfer last week. No mortgage, ok wage job, first time in her life. Crikey.

I'll add to that with 0% on purchases cards for me having completely dried up despite an excellent credit score. There is one that popped up the other day but its for a card I already have and is only 0% for purchases within the first 60 days. My score will update at the end of the month and should improve a touch as I've cancelled off some older cards.

Does anyone know of a good source for stats on consumer unsecured credit?

[Majorpain]

29 minutes ago, null; said:

I'll add to that with 0% on purchases cards for me having completely dried up despite an excellent credit score. There is one that popped up the other day but its for a card I already have and is only 0% for purchases within the first 60 days.

The fed floated the idea of halting QT today, dollar dumped and PM's jumped instantly.  I imaging that cheap and plentiful liquidity in the financial system is essential for 0% cards, if that dries up the issuers just wont make any money.

If the indebted cant roll over their balance onto another 0% card, i image things would get interesting very quick for a lot of people.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/consumer-credit

Its quite difficult to get the unsecured credit stats (wonder why...), but the total is widely availiable and the end of last year interesting in itself.

[Talking Monkey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The debt deflation is already happening so no i dont think we will get much inflation,it might spike slightly.I expect inflation to start to run around 2021 give or take 12 months,then end up in low to mid double figures by 2027/2028.My road map says minimum 11% inflation by 2027,maximum 23%.As always it will build through the cycle.Its key to remember a roadmap isnt a trading call.Its simply why im positioning my portfolio to stocks that can front run inflation to a high,or even small degree.Most cant.

Hi DB if QT is stopped I assume it would temporarily halt the deflation, in your opinion how long for, or are things too far gone and there is not much that tptb can do.

[invalid]

22 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

The fed floated the idea of halting QT today, dollar dumped and PM's jumped instantly.  I imaging that cheap and plentiful liquidity in the financial system is essential for 0% cards, if that dries up the issuers just wont make any money.

If the indebted cant roll over their balance onto another 0% card, i image things would get interesting very quick for a lot of people.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/consumer-credit

Its quite difficult to get the unsecured credit stats (wonder why...), but the total is widely availiable and the end of last year interesting in itself.

Thanks that's an interesting chart. How comes it goes negative at times?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Interesting point about the uplift...so if you have a DB pension and the provider offers you a buy out (as per your friend the other week), then in the situation you are describing it would make sense to take it and invest yourself?!

Well if you could get a better return than RPI inflation yes.Lots more to it than that of course depending on the benefits given up.

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Hi DB if QT is stopped I assume it would temporarily halt the deflation, in your opinion how long for, or are things too far gone and there is not much that tptb can do.

They tightened too much 18 months ago.Too late now,we expected them to see they had gone to far a few months ago.They are talking about halting QT at the moment,not going loose.That will be next.

[A_P]

1 hour ago, null; said:

I'll add to that with 0% on purchases cards for me having completely dried up despite an excellent credit score. There is one that popped up the other day but its for a card I already have and is only 0% for purchases within the first 60 days. My score will update at the end of the month and should improve a touch as I've cancelled off some older cards.

Does anyone know of a good source for stats on consumer unsecured credit?

Are these tailored offers specific to you and being declined or just in general? Seems there's at least seven on Martin's website offering 0% on purchases card all with over two years interest free. Now whether one can get them or not is another thing. My gut feeling is they are happy to lend money just not to people with good credit scores who likely will be paying off.

[Majorpain]

25 minutes ago, null; said:

Thanks that's an interesting chart. How comes it goes negative at times?

I suspect its month on month increases or decreases, 1-2bn ish a month increase for an economy the size of the UK sounds right to me.

[invalid]

1 minute ago, A_P said:

Are these tailored offers specific to you and being declined or just in general? Seems there's at least seven on Martin's website offering 0% on purchases card all with over two years interest free. Now whether one can get them or not is another thing. My gut feeling is they are happy to lend money just not to people with good credit scores who likely will be paying off.

The ones on MSE you can use the eligibility check for (most of them anyway). I don't want to risk applying for one and getting a decline on my credit score. My credit score is excellent.

I've been running 0% cards for many years. Use it for normal expenditure and keep an equal amount in premium bonds. Get the odd £25 win which I think of as money for nothing and get some satisfaction from effectively borrowing at 0%. When interest rates were better (long time ago) I used to put the money into a savings account.

Lately I use the MSE credit club/experian credit score website. It does what they call soft searches and lists cards you will get or a percentage chance. It's completely dried up despite my balance reducing as I've not been able to get any more and the older ones come to the end of the term and get repaid.

I had put it down to getting flagged up as a card whore who never pays them any interest. Not so sure now.

6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I suspect its month on month increases or decreases, 1-2bn ish a month increase for an economy the size of the UK sounds right to me.

Ok, that makes sense. Would be interesting to see the total credit as well as the change.

[A_P]

3 minutes ago, null; said:

The ones on MSE you can use the eligibility check for (most of them anyway). I don't want to risk applying for one and getting a decline on my credit score. My credit score is excellent. 

I've been running 0% cards for many years. Use it for normal expenditure and keep an equal amount in premium bonds. Get the odd £25 win which I think of as money for nothing and get some satisfaction from effectively borrowing at 0%. When interest rates were better (long time ago) I used to put the money into a savings account.

Lately I use the MSE credit club/experian credit score website. It does what they call soft searches and lists cards you will get or a percentage chance. It's completely dried up despite my balance reducing as I've not been able to get any more and the older ones come to the end of the term and get repaid.

I had put it down to getting flagged up as a card whore who never pays them any interest. Not so sure now.

Interesting. Thanks for the info. I'm an amex guy myself atm, howver have been meaning to do some 0% stoozing but can't be dinging myself with credit at moment as in the processing of buying. Once the house is sorted i intend to start rinsing a 0% or two . I've been debt free way too long. Time to start playing the game

[invalid]

8 minutes ago, A_P said:

Interesting. Thanks for the info. I'm an amex guy myself atm, howver have been meaning to do some 0% stoozing but can't be dinging myself with credit at moment as in the processing of buying. Once the house is sorted i intend to start rinsing a 0% or two . I've been debt free way too long. Time to start playing the game

I have one core card that I've had for around 25 years. The others come and go. I've not paid a penny interest on credit cards in the last 20 years.

[Green Devil]

Its amazing that people would buy gold and store in somewhere out of arms reach 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold?srnd=premium-europe

[Thorn]

GCG19.CMX gold futures just hit 1301

[Dogtania]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Currently in SA, and the price of food is really high especially compared to the local minimum wage of 20 rand an hour.Unemployment is 25% but probably even higher due to poor data caollction.

20 rand gets you a decent loaf of bread

When I was in SA in 2013 food was amazingly cheap, granted the exchange was very favourable and I was made to feel like Mr moneybags.  I think a glass of wine was like 8 Rand though could be mistaken, could have been 12 Rand but £1 gave 20 Rand plus at the time.  

The thing was inflation was quite high at the time and I'm assuming has continued.  The standard rate I was told for savings accounts was 7%( or easily found) where we were at 1.  Strange how things develop but I've been aware the 20 Rand to £1 has slipped and even though I've not kept check on their inflation I've guessed it has continually got worse from a GBP -R perspective (as in we've had low inflation if that).

Possibly planning a trip later in the year for a wedding but don't think it'll be Mr moneybags visiting the colony this time!

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Its amazing that people would buy gold and store in somewhere out of arms reach 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold?srnd=premium-europe

Carney could catch a bullet for that.

Fingers crossed.

[zugzwang]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

10 hours ago, A_P said:

 

US official inflation numbers.I agree there is already a lot of inflation around,food has been going up a lot lately etc,but across the whole economy.Most people forget it but inflation actually becomes a loss of faith in the currency hence why certain assets run hot when inflation spikes.I also think most pensions will be destroyed by the inflation in the next cycle,most have uplifts of 5% max and 15% inflation will destroy the value over just a few years.

Explains Drumpf's cratering approval ratings. The 'let 'em eat cake' shit got old real quick.

'Try working something out with the grocery store'? WTF??