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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Great advert for debt deflation,the bit I highlight and underline makes the point and that I and a few others have that raising IR's may not be necessary to pop this bubble.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/01/im-in-awe-of-how-fast-the-housing-markets-in-sydney-melbourne-come-unglued/

I’m in Awe of How Fast the Housing Markets in Sydney & Melbourne Are Coming Unglued

by Wolf Richter • Feb 1, 2019 • 41 Comments

The largest three-months fall “since at least the 80’s”: CoreLogic

“Can we still describe this as an orderly slowdown in housing conditions?” mused CoreLogic Asia Pacific’s head of research Tim Lawless about the Australian housing market today. Over the last three months, the index for Sydney dropped 4.5%, and the index for Melbourne 4.0%, the “largest rolling quarterly fall since at least the 80’s.”

Across the metro area of Sydney, prices of all types of homes combined, according to CoreLogic’s Daily Home Value Index, fell 1.35% in January from December, the third month in a row with a monthly decline of over 1%. The 4.5% decline over the past three months pencils out to an annual rate of decline of 17%. The index is now down about 12% from its peak in July 2017. Note the accelerating decline over the past three months:

Australia-home-prices-Sydney-2019-01-31.

The 12% drop from the peak in July 2017 pushed the index back where it been in July 2016 – which shows how crazy and unsustainable the price boom had been on the way up. Now it is getting unwound at a slightly slower pace on the way down.

Over the 12-month period through January, the index fell 9.7%, with house prices down 10.9% and condo prices down 6.9%. At the same time, the number of homes of all types listed for sale in the Sydney metro jumped by 24%.

Prices of more expensive homes are falling faster than the lower end of the market: In the top quartile of the market, prices fell 10.8% over the past 12 months and are down nearly 15% from the peak.

“Buyers are now in a position where they can negotiate harder, take their time in making a purchase decision and be selective in finding a home that is right for their budget and lifestyle,” the CoreLogic report said. “On the other hand, vendors are clearly facing more challenging selling conditions.”

In the Melbourne metro, the second largest market in Australia, the housing bust is also taking on momentum, instead of slowing down, but started about four months behind Sydney’s. According to the CoreLogic Daily Home Value Index, since the peak in November 2017, prices of all types of homes fell about 9%, which pushed prices back to January 2017 levels. Note the acceleration over the past three months:

Australia-home-prices-Melbourne-2019-01-

In Melbourne, too, the more expensive end of the market got hit the hardest: prices at the top quartile dropped 12.4% over the 12-month period and are down nearly 14% from their peak.

And supply is growing: the number of homes listed for sale in the metro jumped 34% from a year ago.

Across all capital cities, the picture is mixed, with some still booking year-over-year increases, such as Hobart, though its 7.4% rise is down from the double-digit increases last year. This list of the capital cities shows the percentage change of the CoreLogic Home Price Index for each city for the 12 months through January and the median “value” in Australian dollars:

  • Sydney: -9.7% ($795,509)
  • Melbourne: -8.3% ($636,048)
  • Brisbane: 0.0% ($494,345)
  • Adelaide: 0.9% ($430,711)
  • Perth: -5.6% ($441,920)
  • Hobart: 7.4% ($457,785)
  • Darwin: -3.5% ($412,940)
  • Canberra: 3.8% ($596,933)

The national CoreLogic index has dropped 6.1% from its peak in October 2017, largely driven by the vast Sydney and Melbourne markets. This pushed the index back to where it had been in October 2016.

But there are large differences, with prices in some sub-regions plunging, while rising in others. On CoreLogic’s list of the 10 weakest performing sub-regions of the capital cities, seven are in the Sydney metro and three are in the Melbourne metro (image via CoreLogic’s report):

Australia-home-prices-sub-regions-2019-0

In some other sub-regions of the capital cities, prices rose, but none of the top 10 are in the metros of Sydney and Melbourne (image via CoreLogic’s report):

Australia-home-prices-sub-regions-best-2

The report blames the “the worsening conditions” of the housing market primarily on these factors:

  • “Tight credit conditions”
  • “Weakening consumer sentiment”
  • “Less domestic and foreign investment”
  • “Higher levels of housing supply.”

Note the absence of interest rates on this list of factors. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate to a historic low of 1.5% in August 2016 and has kept it there. Mortgage rates are hovering near historic lows. This would normally stimulate a housing market. But no.

Sky-high prices that have become unaffordable are reason enough to prick a bubble. Part of the reason the bubble even inflated this far is the now widely disclosed scandal of banking and mortgage shenanigans, along with crazy levels of investor speculation, supported by the same banking and mortgage shenanigans. After a lot of media coverage of these shenanigans, and after continued revelations about them by the Royal Commission, there is now pressure on banks to clean up their act, and this results in — to use CoreLogic’s phrase — “tight credit conditions.”

And CoreLogic adds: “Housing finance conditions are likely to remain tight after the hand down of the Hayne Royal Commission report which is due on Monday.” Hence, more revelations and more pressures on the banks to clean up. 

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6 hours ago, Errol said:

Endeavour Silver has zero debt as well, which is an interesting feature (and highly unusual these days).

Indeed.They will need to issue debt for the next mine Terronera though,likely around £60million, followed by another £30mill if the ramp it up.Its a lovely ore body though with a lot of mine life extension upside.The Chile exploration projects could provide some great options going forward as well.Endeavour is almost a pure silver play.If we did get a PM/silver bubble they woul likely be one of the stocks that go parabolic.

https://s22.q4cdn.com/579360173/files/doc_presentations/2019/Chile-Webinar-Jan-31-final.pdf

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On 31/01/2019 at 18:21, Agent ZigZag said:

I am very tempted to take some profits from my miners but I need to step back and look at the bigger picture. I have bought so I will hold for the ten year time frame.  A pull back is fine following which I can add more if need be. After all as I work full time I can allocate £20k into my ISA and the same in my SIPP every year.

 

I think the hardest thing woth the PM miners will be holding for that timeframe.The volatility they kik off -both up/down-gives you plenty of reasons to sell.But like you,I think they're like a good wine that'll mature over the years
.

As I've said before,the PM minerts really feel like tech stocks mid 90's-unwanted,unloved and about to enter the biggest bull market of their lives.I'm not intending to trade my Pm miners as I'd hate to sell and watch them soar.The CB's have laid the basis of their boom.But I'm ready for severe downside like I've had in Eldorado/NewGold.

 

On 01/02/2019 at 08:16, A_P said:

It's not quite as simple as the OCF. You will want to look at the underlying transaction costs and compare tracking errors. Personally I don't hedge.

Are there any go to websites that compare ETF's? I'm interested in buying some PM miner ones.Thanks if you can help.

On 01/02/2019 at 10:35, DurhamBorn said:

Both,silver to $200 minimum,some of the miners will likely 100 bag.The key though is not all miners ,and some will go under.He thinks the miners will be to the next cylce what the .com's were to the last one.If i had £5k to invest id buy £1k in 5 silver miners.If i had £100k id buy £30k in silver and £70k in 10 to 12 silver/gold  miners.It all depends on peoples risk,portfolio,assets,time of life etc.Lots to consider,and the space can crush people quickly.If risk is too much then is simply buy silver and look to sell it around 2027.

It's going to be hard holding for the exponential phase,but I'm sure it'll come and I think it'll be hard holding on for it.

On 01/02/2019 at 11:06, A_P said:

 

After VOD paid out a div today, what are peoples thoughts on them paying out any further?

I think there could well be a Vod div cut,but these are a share that we have an i ital ladder in and I for one would have gladly taken £1.47 for our intial entry point last year.I'll be holding these for a looong time.A lot of the telecoms companies worldwide are cheap eg Telstra.Possibly going to get cheaper.I think staircasing in over time is my key aim with these.Great upside longer term

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont really want to give a straight buy these miners answer because a lot depends on time,laddering etc etc and im well up on some of these already.I also wouldnt want someone sticking their life savings into a portfolio of silver miners,as the whole sector could go down the pan if the silver call is wrong.

However i own these silver miners,

Alexco Resource Corp

Endeavour Silver Corp

Fortuna Silver Mines

Great Panther Silver

International Tower Hill Mines

Coeur Mining

Hecla Mining

First Majestic

 

I also like Mike Maloney.He is a PM seller of course,but i think his thoughts are genuine,his work has helped educate people and he isnt pushy on selling.He also buys lots of PMs for his own accounts.His videos are a nice starting point for people to understand how things tick.

 

 

Fair play for putting your balls in the vice DB

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14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

I think the hardest thing woth the PM miners will be holding for that timeframe.The volatility they kik off -both up/down-gives you plenty of reasons to sell.But like you,I think they're like a good wine that'll mature over the years
.

As I've said before,the PM minerts really feel like tech stocks mid 90's-unwanted,unloved and about to enter the biggest bull market of their lives.I'm not intending to trade my Pm miners as I'd hate to sell and watch them soar.The CB's have laid the basis of their boom.But I'm ready for severe downside like I've had in Eldorado/NewGold.

 

 

Tell me about it I have been buying physical gold since 1995 and got caught up in the 2010 mania from listening to forum internet bull shit  imerchants to Jim Sinclair. My fault my learning curve.  219 ounces later I’m-just above breakeven. Thank god I invested in properties as a hedge.  With respect to this forum topic the reflation cycle may take place but when is the all important trading point of entry that is very important. Government may tax the populace for an extended period of time before printing* direct into the economy to inflate the debt away. I think the novice investor reading this forum  needs to be fully aware of all the pit falls and understand that investing like all things in life has risk attached.

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16 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Tell me about it I have been buying physical gold since 1995 and got caught up in the 2010 mania from listening to forum internet bull shit  imerchants to Jim Sinclair. My fault my learning curve.  219 ounces later I’m-just above breakeven. Thank god I invested in properties as a hedge.  With respect to this forum topic the reflation cycle may take place but when is the all important trading point of entry that is very important. Government may tax the populace for an extended period of time before printing* direct into the economy to inflate the debt away. I think the novice investor reading this forum  needs to be fully aware of all the pit falls and understand that investing like all things in life has risk attached.

Absolutely.It's weird but even though my spread betting returns from 2019 put me in the top 20% of traders at IG (Apprently 80% of retial punters lose money),I still feel like a novice investor.Every day is a learning day.Lately I've had a cracking lesson in ETF's from @A_P , mining lessons from @DurhamBorn , @kibuc , @Majorpain , betting lessons from @Democorruptcy and so on and so on.

I've learned some hard lessons over the years and the main one is to srpead yourself across asset classes.

Must say,the cost of maintainging physical gold has always put me off owning it.

Have to say, some of the people on here plus Wolf Richter/Mish Shedlock/Shaun Richards make me feel thick as f***.Anopther twenty years I might finally understand things

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Democorruptcy
7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.It's weird but even though my spread betting returns from 2019 put me in the top 20% of traders at IG (Apprently 80% of retial punters lose money),I still feel like a novice investor.Every day is a learning day.Lately I've had a cracking lesson in ETF's from @A_P , mining lessons from @DurhamBorn , @kibuc , @Majorpain , betting lessons from @Democorruptcy and so on and so on.

I've learned some hard lessons over the years and the main one is to srpead yourself across asset classes.

Must say,the cost of maintainging physical gold has always put me off owning it.

Have to say, some of the people on here plus Wolf Richter/Mish Shedlock/Shaun Richards make me feel thick as f***.Anopther twenty years I might finally understand things

We will all be learning until the day we die (at least, there might be something after, that's another thing we don't yet!)

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Must say,the cost of maintainging physical gold has always put me off owning it.

Same for me.

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Are there any go to websites that compare ETF's? I'm interested in buying some PM miner ones.Thanks if you can help.

Morningstar.co.uk and some of the UK brokers have functionality too. My main one for example has inbuilt morningstar functionailty so I tend to just use that as my starting point. The one thing to note is they seperate ETF's and OEIC's/Funds. Personally I'm more of an UK dom OEIC guy where possible, rather than irish dom ETF for a few reasons. Although both my goldies are ETFs. One thing to consider is your broker fee structure, as some lend themselves to OEIC's and some don't. For example HL I would avoid OEIC's with their uncapped 0.45% fees, that could get expensive very quickly, where as their ETF fees are capped at £45 per annum iirc. Ill be opening up a new LISA this April with AJ Bell and will go with ETF's as they have a similar pricing structure where fees are capped at £25 per annum iirc.

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5 hours ago, A_P said:

Same for me.

Morningstar.co.uk and some of the UK brokers have functionality too. My main one for example has inbuilt morningstar functionailty so I tend to just use that as my starting point. The one thing to note is they seperate ETF's and OEIC's/Funds. Personally I'm more of an UK dom OEIC guy where possible, rather than irish dom ETF for a few reasons. Although both my goldies are ETFs. One thing to consider is your broker fee structure, as some lend themselves to OEIC's and some don't. For example HL I would avoid OEIC's with their uncapped 0.45% fees, that could get expensive very quickly, where as their ETF fees are capped at £45 per annum iirc. Ill be opening up a new LISA this April with AJ Bell and will go with ETF's as they have a similar pricing structure where fees are capped at £25 per annum iirc.

Forgive my ignorance but I'm looking to buy some PM ETF's for some family members I don't wish to expose to the risk of owning individual stocks.

With sya FTSE 100 ETF's the charges ar circa 0.06%,ergo paid out of dividends.HGow do you ETF's that track XAU/GDX cover costs of circa 0.4% if there's no dividend flow?

As for capping/uncapping fees-I am clueless.

Any chance of a layman's explanation A_P?

Or a link to an expalantion for dummies please?

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52 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Forgive my ignorance but I'm looking to buy some PM ETF's for some family members I don't wish to expose to the risk of owning individual stocks.

With sya FTSE 100 ETF's the charges ar circa 0.06%,ergo paid out of dividends.HGow do you ETF's that track XAU/GDX cover costs of circa 0.4% if there's no dividend flow?

As for capping/uncapping fees-I am clueless.

Any chance of a layman's explanation A_P?

Or a link to an expalantion for dummies please?

The OCF fee you mention eg the 0.06% is the cost of the ETF/Fund that the manager levies. Like you say that comes out of the divis but they will also sell holdings to pay for the fees if no divis. In the end you never see that fee/bill. So this is why it's important to dig a little further than just the headline OCF. Tracking error and transactional costs will shred a 0.05% OCF difference. From memory GDXJ has huge transaction costs.

The 0.45% I mention is a seperate custody brokerage fee, which youll be used to paying in some form with holding shares. Lets takes HL's for example:

image.thumb.png.69981dd237ec34b19d7a2e491e5963e2.png

Shares,ETF's etc are capped at £45 max per year. Funds are uncapped up to £2m, with the first £250k 0.45%. Anything more than a few thousand held you will be significantly overpaying than if you held the ETF counterpart. So one needs to know what they're going to buy and when because you have to consider not only the trading costs but the custody charges. But sounds like you're look at ETFs anyway so probably isn't going to be a big concern.

So If we take a Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF (VUKE) vs the Vanguard FTSE 100 OEIC, which have OCF's of 0.09% and 0.06% respectively, if you buy and hold these in HL it will have a big impact long term. Also worth noting there are other managers, VUKE isn't the cheapest FTSE 100 ETF out there. Why would one go for the OEIC over the ETF or vice versa? VUKE only comes in distributing, where as their OEIC comes in both income and accumlation. So by choosing the accumlation fund you can forgo any further trading costs reinvesting divis. For me personally I go for the funds mainly because they're in the UK (better compo), priced once a day so don't have to worry about trading/spread etc, and my broker doesn't charge me any extra (im on a quarterly fixed fee no matter what I hold). Few other reasons but you get the gist. Where as for my LISA only HL and AJ Bell offer the savings vehicle and because they're both on a similar pricing structure I will only be holding shares and ETF's in that vehicle/broker.

Brokers:

As far as finding which broker will be suitable it's worth using this broker comparision at least to get a starting idea before digging a bit further:

https://monevator.com/compare-the-brokers/

Also the monevator site is generally good for further reading on passive investing, ETF's and OEIC's in general.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Forgive my ignorance but I'm looking to buy some PM ETF's for some family members I don't wish to expose to the risk of owning individual stocks.

With sya FTSE 100 ETF's the charges ar circa 0.06%,ergo paid out of dividends.HGow do you ETF's that track XAU/GDX cover costs of circa 0.4% if there's no dividend flow?

As for capping/uncapping fees-I am clueless.

Any chance of a layman's explanation A_P?

Or a link to an expalantion for dummies please?

With a physical precious metal ETC fund the amount of the precious metal each unit buys will fall each year by the charge. So if when the fund launches each unit buys one ounce of metal, with a 0.4% charge after one year each unit will now only be worth 99.6% of one oz.

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Clueless Imbecile

Does anyone know:

Are GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) and GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS/JR GOLD MINERS ETF) available to buy & sell within the Hargreaves Lansdown ISA platform? When I looked on their website recently it seemed to indicate that they are available within their ISA, but I thought someone on here had said that they could not buy them? I don't have an ISA with Hargreaves Lansdown and therefore cannot log in to check.

Are they available on any other ISA platform?

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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Shatner's Bassoon
1 minute ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Does anyone know:

Are GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) and GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS/JR GOLD MINERS ETF) available to buy & sell within the Hargreaves Lansdown ISA platform? When I looked on their website recently it seemed to indicate that they are available within their ISA, but I thought someone on here had said that they could not buy them? I don't have an ISA with Hargreaves Lansdown and therefore cannot log in to check.

Are they available on any other ISA platform?

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Pretty sure you can buy GDXJ now - if you try to deal you get a 'Stock Market Closed' message, but if you try to buy GDX you get the standard message about the KIID document not being made available. 

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45 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Does anyone know:

Are GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) and GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS/JR GOLD MINERS ETF) available to buy & sell within the Hargreaves Lansdown ISA platform? When I looked on their website recently it seemed to indicate that they are available within their ISA, but I thought someone on here had said that they could not buy them? I don't have an ISA with Hargreaves Lansdown and therefore cannot log in to check.

Are they available on any other ISA platform?

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Yes you can now buy GDXJ and GDX on HL. I have them both but not in an ISA. Can't see why you wouldn't be able. Give it a go.

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1 hour ago, harp said:

Yes you can now buy GDXJ and GDX on HL. I have them both but not in an ISA. Can't see why you wouldn't be able. Give it a go.

 

1 hour ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Does anyone know:

Are GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) and GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS/JR GOLD MINERS ETF) available to buy & sell within the Hargreaves Lansdown ISA platform? When I looked on their website recently it seemed to indicate that they are available within their ISA, but I thought someone on here had said that they could not buy them? I don't have an ISA with Hargreaves Lansdown and therefore cannot log in to check.

Are they available on any other ISA platform?

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Yes they are - just not via the app or site so if you want some of them you just have to call so one of their brokers can record themselves reading out the KID info to you (which seems to focus a lot on the currency fluctuation risk).

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13 minutes ago, Thorn said:

 

Yes they are - just not via the app or site so if you want some of them you just have to call so one of their brokers can record themselves reading out the KID info to you (which seems to focus a lot on the currency fluctuation risk).

Nuts isnt it.The fact we cant buy US funds is a nightmare.They have fantastic funds for certain sectors/countries etc that you cant get anywhere near in the UK.It really does feel like a way for the EU to keep people out of dollar assets.You cant buy a US treasury ETF but you can buy Italian bank bonds.Hmm.

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5 hours ago, A_P said:

The OCF fee you mention eg the 0.06% is the cost of the ETF/Fund that the manager levies. Like you say that comes out of the divis but they will also sell holdings to pay for the fees if no divis. In the end you never see that fee/bill. So this is why it's important to dig a little further than just the headline OCF. Tracking error and transactional costs will shred a 0.05% OCF difference. From memory GDXJ has huge transaction costs.

The 0.45% I mention is a seperate custody brokerage fee, which youll be used to paying in some form with holding shares. Lets takes HL's for example:

image.thumb.png.69981dd237ec34b19d7a2e491e5963e2.png

Shares,ETF's etc are capped at £45 max per year. Funds are uncapped up to £2m, with the first £250k 0.45%. Anything more than a few thousand held you will be significantly overpaying than if you held the ETF counterpart. So one needs to know what they're going to buy and when because you have to consider not only the trading costs but the custody charges. But sounds like you're look at ETFs anyway so probably isn't going to be a big concern.

So If we take a Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF (VUKE) vs the Vanguard FTSE 100 OEIC, which have OCF's of 0.09% and 0.06% respectively, if you buy and hold these in HL it will have a big impact long term. Also worth noting there are other managers, VUKE isn't the cheapest FTSE 100 ETF out there. Why would one go for the OEIC over the ETF or vice versa? VUKE only comes in distributing, where as their OEIC comes in both income and accumlation. So by choosing the accumlation fund you can forgo any further trading costs reinvesting divis. For me personally I go for the funds mainly because they're in the UK (better compo), priced once a day so don't have to worry about trading/spread etc, and my broker doesn't charge me any extra (im on a quarterly fixed fee no matter what I hold). Few other reasons but you get the gist. Where as for my LISA only HL and AJ Bell offer the savings vehicle and because they're both on a similar pricing structure I will only be holding shares and ETF's in that vehicle/broker.

Brokers:

As far as finding which broker will be suitable it's worth using this broker comparision at least to get a starting idea before digging a bit further:

https://monevator.com/compare-the-brokers/

Also the monevator site is generally good for further reading on passive investing, ETF's and OEIC's in general.

Many many thanks A_P.I've only ever traded shares and options besides my spread betting.I held off years ago due to costs but I see it's still a big issue if you;re away from the divi paying indices trackers.

 

All this stuff is completely new to me.I'll have a chat with the brokers but forewarned is forearmed.Those charges with the Trusts are cheeky but easy money for the Brokers.

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

With a physical precious metal ETC fund the amount of the precious metal each unit buys will fall each year by the charge. So if when the fund launches each unit buys one ounce of metal, with a 0.4% charge after one year each unit will now only be worth 99.6% of one oz.

Which makes sense and explains why I've never bothered ETC's.At least with owning the physical you can limit storage costs.

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1 hour ago, Thorn said:

 

Yes they are - just not via the app or site so if you want some of them you just have to call so one of their brokers can record themselves reading out the KID info to you (which seems to focus a lot on the currency fluctuation risk).

I’ve bought GDXJ on both HL and Interactive Investor since the beginning of January via their websites without any problem. The spread on II seemed to be bigger but I’m not absolutely sure. The one concern I have is that it seems to be a separate fund based in London which might be a problem for liquidity. 

I’m leaning more towards the iShares gold producers fund (SPGP) as the costs seem a bit lower without any explicit currency costs (it’s quoted in pence on HL).

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Many many thanks A_P.I've only ever traded shares and options besides my spread betting.I held off years ago due to costs but I see it's still a big issue if you;re away from the divi paying indices trackers.

 

All this stuff is completely new to me.I'll have a chat with the brokers but forewarned is forearmed.Those charges with the Trusts are cheeky but easy money for the Brokers.

Which makes sense and explains why I've never bothered ETC's.At least with owning the physical you can limit storage costs.

Ultimately will depend on the size of tracker and what they're tracking. But you can get a good spread of global asset classes for under 0.25% ocf when combining it all. its just how far you want to take it and how much manual/automatic intervention is needed.

With the gold it's a tough one when considering the hassles of buying, selling, storage, security etc. I would probably say a combination of physical, bullionvault and an etc is a decent middle ground. Personally I sided with an etc for now, costing me £25 per annum for £10k. I'll check the performance against the others in a few months as coming up to my first year with it then.  Thus far my etc is up nearly 9% or perhaps is the £ worth 9% less in that time 🤔.

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53 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I’ve bought GDXJ on both HL and Interactive Investor since the beginning of January via their websites without any problem. The spread on II seemed to be bigger but I’m not absolutely sure. The one concern I have is that it seems to be a separate fund based in London which might be a problem for liquidity. 

I’m leaning more towards the iShares gold producers fund (SPGP) as the costs seem a bit lower without any explicit currency costs (it’s quoted in pence on HL).

I went with SPGP. No currency costs when buying but obviously performance/value is subject to currency fluctuations. No complaints with the performance thus far

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Many many thanks A_P.I've only ever traded shares and options besides my spread betting.I held off years ago due to costs but I see it's still a big issue if you;re away from the divi paying indices trackers.

 

All this stuff is completely new to me.I'll have a chat with the brokers but forewarned is forearmed.Those charges with the Trusts are cheeky but easy money for the Brokers.

Which makes sense and explains why I've never bothered ETC's.At least with owning the physical you can limit storage costs.

But you have the risk of someone stealing it (they can't steal your ETCs), and you also have the minting costs...unless you are buying bars!....

Whilst we are talking gold/pm (obviously we all informed watched the Maloney `Hidden secrets of money` videos this weekend!), has anyone `run a sliderule` over the costs of owning gold ETC vs Bullion vault trading account/Royal Mint signature account (these last two offer ownership/trading of partial bars)?...from what I can see they offer the same advantages but the former has more counterparty risk...and you never physically`own` in either!

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11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nuts isnt it.The fact we cant buy US funds is a nightmare.They have fantastic funds for certain sectors/countries etc that you cant get anywhere near in the UK.It really does feel like a way for the EU to keep people out of dollar assets.You cant buy a US treasury ETF but you can buy Italian bank bonds.Hmm.

`A means to an end`?...an attempt to usurp the $ from its position on world trading currency?...hence why a number of reserves have used swaps of their currencies/bonds?

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UnconventionalWisdom
On 03/02/2019 at 00:12, sancho panza said:

Have to say, some of the people on here plus Wolf Richter/Mish Shedlock/Shaun Richards make me feel thick as f***.Anopther twenty years I might finally understand things

I feel the same. I'm wondering whether I should get a job in finance just to speed up the learning. I have a physics/engineering background so tick a lot of the boxes.

I know a couple of tech guys who work at an investment bank and a hedge fund. They know Jack about finance-one didn't know how to buy a share and the other about treasuries. Their decision guys want to educate the tech guys but they don't want to listen. 

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10 hours ago, Wheeler said:

I’ve bought GDXJ on both HL and Interactive Investor since the beginning of January via their websites without any problem. The spread on II seemed to be bigger but I’m not absolutely sure. The one concern I have is that it seems to be a separate fund based in London which might be a problem for liquidity. 

I’m leaning more towards the iShares gold producers fund (SPGP) as the costs seem a bit lower without any explicit currency costs (it’s quoted in pence on HL).

But where do their custodians hold the gold (New York, London) and how `free` is this if there was a currency run?...If the $ `tits up` I can't see you keeping access (or ownership) of your gold for very long in NY, and if it's in London the US lapdog (UK) will `look after it` the same way they are doing for Venezuela!

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