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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont tend to focus on the route of my roadmap but thought id share the exact numbers on it just in case it carries on as its showing and so people arent shaken out.

Its showing as gold topping between $1315 and $1350,then dropping to the $1240/1260 region into May,then starting to trend much higher into the end of the year ($1570).

GDX on the roadmap goes $23 down to $19.50 area then up to $34 by year end.

I always focus on where we are going,not the bumps and turns,but just wanted to put it out there.If gold did fall into May then i think it will provide the last buying chance before it trends.Those are just what might be the route,not what will be of course.If we fall $19.50/$20.00 is the area in the GDX to be buying more miners or average any already owned.

We could already be trending of course towards the $1500+ mark.

The roadmaps are showing clear that gold compared to houses and gold compared to the S+P speeds up going forward and doesnt stop doing so until around 2027.The inflation cycle is nearly upon us.

 

 

 

Thanks as always db, still time for us minions to cross to the dark side 😀

remind me how does physical silver likely behave in the coming years, more risk but more upswing potential than physical gold?

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Talking Monkey
7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont tend to focus on the route of my roadmap but thought id share the exact numbers on it just in case it carries on as its showing and so people arent shaken out.

Its showing as gold topping between $1315 and $1350,then dropping to the $1240/1260 region into May,then starting to trend much higher into the end of the year ($1570).

GDX on the roadmap goes $23 down to $19.50 area then up to $34 by year end.

I always focus on where we are going,not the bumps and turns,but just wanted to put it out there.If gold did fall into May then i think it will provide the last buying chance before it trends.Those are just what might be the route,not what will be of course.If we fall $19.50/$20.00 is the area in the GDX to be buying more miners or average any already owned.

We could already be trending of course towards the $1500+ mark.

The roadmaps are showing clear that gold compared to houses and gold compared to the S+P speeds up going forward and doesnt stop doing so until around 2027.The inflation cycle is nearly upon us.

 

 

 

Great post DB one of the things I think you mentioned is that Gold may be down to the 8-900 area post hitting 1500 as everything sells off, does the roadmap still hint at that

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its showing as gold topping between $1315 and $1350,then dropping to the $1240/1260 region into May,then starting to trend much higher into the end of the year ($1570).

Hochschild has been grinding out a Cup and handle pattern since July 18, its completion would match up uncannily with what you have just suggested might happen! 

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14 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Sibanye continuing to give it some welly.

 

I bought about £2500 worth Sibanye a while back last year currently up 75.9% thought about selling but may just continue holding 

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16 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I bought about £2500 worth Sibanye a while back last year currently up 75.9% thought about selling but may just continue holding 

Congrats to everyone who made profit. I had to pick between HMY and SBGL for my senior miner and in the end went with the former. I don't get why SBGL got such a boost and because I don't get it, I'm not gonna buy it, but it's poised to open today at +50% compared to Jan 16th and there's no arguing with such numbers.

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6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Congrats to everyone who made profit. I had to pick between HMY and SBGL for my senior miner and in the end went with the former. I don't get why SBGL got such a boost and because I don't get it, I'm not gonna buy it, but it's poised to open today at +50% compared to Jan 16th and there's no arguing with such numbers. 

Sibanye (Stillwater) has a load of Platinum/Palladium in the US, Harmony doesn't in a nutshell.

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9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Sibanye (Stillwater) has a load of Platinum/Palladium in the US, Harmony doesn't in a nutshell.

With their gold operations hamstrung by strike action since Nov, with possible contagion to Platinium operations and with Lonmin takeover delayed it has to be Palladium, doesn't it. Is it big enough part of their business to justify +50%  in less tham a month and +70% in less than two? Clearly,  the market thinks it is.

Palladium price is driven mostly by the car industry and I don't think thats a particularly enticing prospect. I think they should use whatever money they made on palladium rally to get their gold house in order.

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Sibanye always seems so appealing and I do track it but I don’t think it’s currently anymore than a spectator sport for me. It feels like they’re never far away from a health and safety incident or something similar wiping out any gains. The whole PM miners sector feels Wild West enough already without adding that in.

Or maybe I have a false perception based on the shortish length of time I’ve followed them. I dunno.

+75% gains though. That’s what it’s all about. Well done.

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36 minutes ago, kibuc said:

With their gold operations hamstrung by strike action since Nov, with possible contagion to Platinium operations and with Lonmin takeover delayed it has to be Palladium, doesn't it. Is it big enough part of their business to justify +50%  in less tham a month and +70% in less than two? Clearly,  the market thinks it is.

Palladium price is driven mostly by the car industry and I don't think thats a particularly enticing prospect. I think they should use whatever money they made on palladium rally to get their gold house in order. 

 

28 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Sibanye always seems so appealing and I do track it but I don’t think it’s currently no more than a spectator sport for me. It feels like they’re never far away from a health and safety incident or something similar wiping out any gains. The whole PM miners sector feels Wild West enough already without adding that in.

Or maybe I have a false perception based on the shortish length of time I’ve followed them. I dunno.

+75% gains though. That’s what it’s all about. Well done. 

Completely agree with both, whilst I missed out on about £10k of profit at this moment in time, I really don't regret selling and limiting my risk.  Its getting very dangerous out there with the reduction in liquidity, in particular anyone reliant on banks for trading cash is going to have a very bad wake up call one day soon.  It will be either massive reduction in the amount they can borrow, large increases in interest rate, or both.

If you cant trade its game over.

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5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Great post DB one of the things I think you mentioned is that Gold may be down to the 8-900 area post hitting 1500 as everything sells off, does the roadmap still hint at that

Yes,we still see sub $1000 gold (actual price $827) and sub $10 silver (actual price $8.21),however we also see gold at $6000+ and silver at $200+ minimum by 2028 .Its likely i would top slice 30% out of my miners if gold does hit $1500 and ride the rest.If they did fall average at sub $1000 gold,if not ride the 70% until at least 2025.

My friend still expects a big debt deflation,but he also think inflation might show up in the US around May and he thinks TIPs and the miners (and PMs) will then start to trend through the year.At this stage in the cycle,the first whiff that CBs have topped out the tightening,but inflation is stoking will get things moving.

Iv taken out a few ladders on my miners already where bottom runs were up 30% and i actually sold all my Anglogold Ashanti and i have new ladders set up in my silver miner plays from where they are now and in -8% x 3 ladders.Il be very happy if we keep running now,but il also be very happy if we pull back into early May and pick up more silver miners,then trend.

On Sibanye,iv made a lot of money over the years on them,and would of bought a big chunk when they were down,but i only bought a few,reason being i had too many SA miners.Id introduce a 12% stop under them if i had a big holding probably and spread the profit among the silver miners.Really pleased people have done so well on them on here.

 

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On a separate note, if a $100/oz price increase in Palladium can lift such troubled Behemoth as SBGL +50%, it makes one wonder what $1500/oz gold would do to pure gold plays.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

I bought about £2500 worth Sibanye a while back last year currently up 75.9% thought about selling but may just continue holding 

I put in around a grand, and currently 63% up. I understand the temptation to sell! Not really enough profit (in pounds) to bother selling yet tbh, but I'm still sore at missing out on around £20k crypto profits. Greed versus fear, as always.

If they really do go mental, I'd hate to miss that!

FWIW, I'm up 17% on FRES, 25% on HMY, 13% on HOC, 30% on POLY too, but down 10% on SIL, 3% on GDXJ and 12% on YRI. Win some, you lose some. Would be nice to get them all pop up tbh.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,we still see sub $1000 gold (actual price $827) and sub $10 silver (actual price $8.21),however we also see gold at $6000+ and silver at $200+ minimum by 2028 .Its likely i would top slice 30% out of my miners if gold does hit $1500 and ride the rest.If they did fall average at sub $1000 gold,if not ride the 70% until at least 2025.

 

I 've just bought some GDX and would like some SIL but the broker (AJ Bell) doesn't sell it as they don't have a KID for it.  I remember there was some discussion about this many pages back and I'm just wondering where it can be bought.  Otherwise I shall just have to take the plunge into individual silver miners.:)

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Inoperational Bumblebee
14 minutes ago, janch said:

I 've just bought some GDX and would like some SIL but the broker (AJ Bell) doesn't sell it as they don't have a KID for it.  I remember there was some discussion about this many pages back and I'm just wondering where it can be bought.  Otherwise I shall just have to take the plunge into individual silver miners.:)

I'm pretty sure you won't be able to buy SIL as a retail investor anywhere in the EU now. Just take a look at its holdings and go from there. Many have been mentioned as individual shares here.

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4 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I'm pretty sure you won't be able to buy SIL as a retail investor anywhere in the EU now. Just take a look at its holdings and go from there. Many have been mentioned as individual shares here.

The other option could be a physical silver fund/etf

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Inoperational Bumblebee
4 minutes ago, A_P said:

The other option could be a physical silver fund/etf

Wouldn't get the leverage though, which I understood is the point of buying miners rather than physical or equivalent.

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Just now, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Wouldn't get the leverage though, which I understood is the point of buying miners rather than physical or equivalent.

Naturally. Was just a suggestion on a way getting some cheap silver exposure. Which, considering DB's roadmap, a physical fund wouldn't do too bad at all. Where as cherry picking the correct miner(s) is a different ball game. Horses for courses though

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Inoperational Bumblebee
3 minutes ago, A_P said:

Naturally. Was just a suggestion on a way getting some cheap silver exposure. Which, considering DB's roadmap, a physical fund wouldn't do too bad at all. Where as cherry picking the correct miner(s) is a different ball game. Horses for courses though

Agreed.

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1 hour ago, janch said:

I 've just bought some GDX and would like some SIL but the broker (AJ Bell) doesn't sell it as they don't have a KID for it.  I remember there was some discussion about this many pages back and I'm just wondering where it can be bought.  Otherwise I shall just have to take the plunge into individual silver miners.:)

If you scroll back through the thread i gave a list of silver miners i own.They are all the best plays on silver in the market and the most pure plays there are.Instead of SIL id buy them all (say 6) and spread the money.Not advice,widows and orphans etc etc

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28 minutes ago, A_P said:

Naturally. Was just a suggestion on a way getting some cheap silver exposure. Which, considering DB's roadmap, a physical fund wouldn't do too bad at all. Where as cherry picking the correct miner(s) is a different ball game. Horses for courses though

I like both.Physical for the insurance,miners so i can surround myself with the trappings of wealth later in the cycle.Or in my case buy the yellow sticker reductions with only 50% off instead of 75% and take my partner out to sit down for her fish and chips rather than on a tartan ground sheet in a pull in on a local A road.xD

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2 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I'm pretty sure you won't be able to buy SIL as a retail investor anywhere in the EU now. Just take a look at its holdings and go from there. Many have been mentioned as individual shares here.

why is the EU preventing so many investment opportunities.  Is it just a way of forcing money to stay invested in EU companies?

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Bobthebuilder
1 minute ago, wherebee said:

why is the EU preventing so many investment opportunities.  Is it just a way of forcing money to stay invested in EU companies?

It smells like capital control to me.

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its teen spirit.

Cant have all them plebs making money (or losing it since they need to tax it to zero and beyond).

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