Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Thorn]

China just bought some more gold.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/a-little-tick-on-the-chart-has-gold-bugs-buzzing-20190206

[Democorruptcy]

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont tend to focus on the route of my roadmap but thought id share the exact numbers on it just in case it carries on as its showing and so people arent shaken out.

Its showing as gold topping between $1315 and $1350,then dropping to the $1240/1260 region into May,then starting to trend much higher into the end of the year ($1570).

GDX on the roadmap goes $23 down to $19.50 area then up to $34 by year end.

I always focus on where we are going,not the bumps and turns,but just wanted to put it out there.If gold did fall into May then i think it will provide the last buying chance before it trends.Those are just what might be the route,not what will be of course.If we fall $19.50/$20.00 is the area in the GDX to be buying more miners or average any already owned.

We could already be trending of course towards the $1500+ mark.

The roadmaps are showing clear that gold compared to houses and gold compared to the S+P speeds up going forward and doesnt stop doing so until around 2027.The inflation cycle is nearly upon us.

 

Though later in the thread you suggest

Quote

Yes,we still see sub $1000 gold (actual price $827) and sub $10 silver (actual price $8.21),

I think I would always add the second bit to the first bit, as a possibility. If you are correct about both, someone just reading the first quote would be near 50% down at the 2nd quote, you wouldn't want them to panic sell and not buy back in!

Have you got a timescale for this near $8 silver?

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Though later in the thread you suggest

I think I would always add the second bit to the first bit, as a possibility. If you are correct about both, someone just reading the first quote would be near 50% down at the 2nd quote, you wouldn't want them to panic sell and not buy back in!

Have you got a timescale for this near $8 silver?

Silver to $24+ then down to sub $10.No timescale,its cycle based though id expect within 18 months if it happens.To be honest people have to make their own choices in how to invest.These are roadmaps not trading calls.I dont know myself how il trade this yet,though likely id top slice by 30%.My eye is really on 2025/28.Main point like you say though is not to panic on any falls and to use to top up.The next cycle is looking fantastic for PMs,only the scale is in doubt.

Most PM investors should be up at least 30% now in most stocks from their bottoms,and if they used ladders they could take out the first one now.Apart from that timing is very difficult.I have some miner investments that have taken until today to be up 1%,up 35% from their bottoms.

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver to $24+ then down to sub $10.No timescale,its cycle based though id expect within 18 months if it happens.To be honest people have to make their own choices in how to invest.These are roadmaps not trading calls.I dont know myself how il trade this yet,though likely id top slice by 30%.My eye is really on 2025/28.Main point like you say though is not to panic on any falls and to use to top up.The next cycle is lo0oking fantastic for PMs,only the scale is in doubt.

Most PM investors should be up at least 30% now in most stocks from their bottoms,and if they used ladders they could take out the first one now.Apart from that timing is very difficult.I have some miner investments that have taken until today to be up 1%,up 35% from their bottoms.

yes, im seeing this in my miniscule harmony buy, its been down red as far as like 16-20%, last couple of days its been +1 or +2% green, mind ego the old dog is still @ -28% even though its had a decent run last few days, Im not worried about these since theyve only got about £150 ea in them, i put £100 a month into fundsmith t class fund and thats like 45% up since mar last year, it still hasnt got much in it 1850 i paid in, current value 2687. Ill take a look at your silver miners list, i think i might already be in some of them via swreso fund, have to recheck.

[MrXxx]

7 hours ago, kibuc said:

Congrats to everyone who made profit. I had to pick between HMY and SBGL for my senior miner and in the end went with the former. I don't get why SBGL got such a boost and because I don't get it, I'm not gonna buy it, but it's poised to open today at +50% compared to Jan 16th and there's no arguing with such numbers.

I stood on the side trying to understand what I was buying...and by the time I did I had missed the bus :{ ...but if DBs charts are correct I may get a sec chance :-)

[harp]

Guys just to be clear. GDXJ and GDX on Hargreaves Lansdown (via their app) is available to buy without any restrictions as of late last year. No need to call them or go to their website anymore. I've been buying with no issues since they lifted whatever restrictions they had in place. 

[Calcutta]

Been watching this thread for nearly two years and it is very interesting to see how it's panning out.

When DB first started the thread googling deflation, reflation, etc etc gave me nothing. Now you stick the same ideas into YouTube or Google there's hundreds of people making the same calls.

I have no money in any of this, premium bonds and my own warped little system I think will pay out in the football accumulators.

[Straingone]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Been watching this thread for nearly two years and it is very interesting to see how it's panning out.

When DB first started the thread googling deflation, reflation, etc etc gave me nothing. Now you stick the same ideas into YouTube or Google there's hundreds of people making the same calls.

I have no money in any of this, premium bonds and my own warped little system I think will pay out in the football accumulators.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like both.Physical for the insurance,miners so i can surround myself with the trappings of wealth later in the cycle.Or in my case buy the yellow sticker reductions with only 50% off instead of 75% and take my partner out to sit down for her fish and chips rather than on a tartan ground sheet in a pull in on a local A road.

Just loving this,  I'm sure ya words above reflect the 99% of us on this board...well they sure do for me!

DB, my portfolio is only down now -2%  (was -30%) at one point ha-ha...main profit on Sibanye & Harmony...Sibanye has gone up almost in a straight line in the last few days, this alone should tell me to sell, whoever said this was an EASY business...!

For those asking about DB's sliver PM's list, here it is below re-printed to save ya time looking back...

REMEMBER folks *DO YA OWN RESEARCH* AND...if they go to zero YOU only blame yourself ....BUT if ya get a 100 bagger... BEERS all round sitting in DB's back garden on a tartan ground sheet, i may even bring my folding fishing seat that i got from the boot-sale for £1.50, btw ...if me portfolio does really good, i'll even pay for the fish&chips!

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

I dont really want to give a straight buy these miners answer because a lot depends on time,laddering etc etc and im well up on some of these already.I also wouldnt want someone sticking their life savings into a portfolio of silver miners,as the whole sector could go down the pan if the silver call is wrong.

However i own these silver miners,

Alexco Resource Corp

Endeavour Silver Corp

Fortuna Silver Mines

Great Panther Silver

International Tower Hill Mines

Coeur Mining

Hecla Mining

First Majestic

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

                                                                                                               

[Democorruptcy]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver to $24+ then down to sub $10.No timescale,its cycle based though id expect within 18 months if it happens.To be honest people have to make their own choices in how to invest.These are roadmaps not trading calls.I dont know myself how il trade this yet,though likely id top slice by 30%.My eye is really on 2025/28.Main point like you say though is not to panic on any falls and to use to top up.The next cycle is looking fantastic for PMs,only the scale is in doubt.

Most PM investors should be up at least 30% now in most stocks from their bottoms,and if they used ladders they could take out the first one now.Apart from that timing is very difficult.I have some miner investments that have taken until today to be up 1%,up 35% from their bottoms.

I understand you don't want to be thought of as responsible for trading calls, it's up everyone what they decide.

I was thinking about what I said about if there is a deflationary crash. Errol would probably say the price doesn't doesn't matter it's the number ounces you hold. It's not 50% down it's potentially being able to buy double the amount of ounces. Though of course willing buyers need willing or forced sellers.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I understand you don't want to be thought of as responsible for trading calls, it's up everyone what they decide.

I was thinking about what I said about if there is a deflationary crash. Errol would probably say the price doesn't doesn't matter it's the number ounces you hold. It's not 50% down it's potentially being able to buy double the amount of ounces. Though of course willing buyers need willing or forced sellers.

Its the one area iv spent most time thinking about and being torn.I trust my roadmaps and always follow them over a cycle.However this up down up down up i see in the PMs keeps me awake.Its not a little wobble,it shows a big fall,although it then shows new highs within 12 months.The roadmaps are very good at direction and im very confident that silver for instance will go along past $100 at least (though fully expect $200 minimum).Not all calls reach the end of the map,some (like this last cycle) go past.Our dis-inflation calls had rates going down to 2% from 22%,not zero.

My friend uses the same macro indicators he has always used,but i introduced lots of sentiment indicators,momentum etc on top.

Two years ago when i started to sell my portfolio the plan was to slowly re-base into reflation companies through the cycle turn and ladder into those and hope when they turned as a unit i would be down at most 15%.The other part was the PM miners and that they would run and make up for any fall in my reflation stocks.So far that is working very well,some of my reflation stocks are actually up a lot (mainly the transports),some are down on average around 8%-15% before dividends,happy with that as only halfway through the ladders on some and iv been able to get back into the likes of BAT -53% from where i sold.Everything extra i earn now though is for PM miners, mainly silver.I wont be adding to them where they are at the moment,but i will if they do fall into May.

For people who mention HMY/SBGL and the fact HMY hasnt done as well,its up 45% from its lows.It was top 3 on my rubber band list when i ran it.Id say thats a superb performance.If you used a ladder you should be up 32% on it.HMY is a play on gold,not palladium.They have 90 million oz in the ground at least.IF we get a bull run (and its IF) and people start to value miners on $ per oz in the ground as often happens in PM bulls HMY is a potential 20 bagger.It could also go down 75% if PMs stall,or to nothing if SA went all commie.

The rubber band list has done very very well,and what i would expect.Gold turns they snap back hard due to trapped energy,gold doesnt turn they continue to inflict pain.

[Castlevania]

I sold half my Sibanye holding yesterday. I had more than I realistically wanted long term and I’ve made a very nice profit which I can now recycle into gambling companies and utilities. Never be scared to take a profit or something.

Anyhow Sibanye and Harmony charts are looking very similar at the moment to their charts in late 2015 and into 2016 where they flew. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I sold half my Sibanye holding yesterday. I had more than I realistically wanted long term and I’ve made a very nice profit which I can now recycle into gambling companies and utilities. Never be scared to take a profit or something.

Anyhow Sibanye and Harmony charts are looking very similar at the moment to their charts in late 2015 and into 2016 where they flew. 

Agreed on that,if the holding is above comfort size and a very nice profit take some.I sold all my Anglogold Ashanti and my bottom ladder in Harmony.

I like gambling companies and have ladders in them myself.Industry ripe to consolidate in the next cycle.

[Errol]

15 hours ago, harp said:

Guys just to be clear. GDXJ and GDX on Hargreaves Lansdown (via their app) is available to buy without any restrictions as of late last year. No need to call them or go to their website anymore. I've been buying with no issues since they lifted whatever restrictions they had in place. 

Shame you still can't buy these on Interactive Investor (ii). They are still claiming there is no KIID for nearly all the gold/silver etf products. Not sure what is going on.

[A_P]

17 minutes ago, Errol said:

Shame you still can't buy these on Interactive Investor (ii). They are still claiming there is no KIID for nearly all the gold/silver etf products. Not sure what is going on.

I use II and thought you could? I've definitely got through to preview buying and had the extended costs paperwork which put me off buying GDX and GDXJ. I never went through with confirming the deal though. I've did have success buying ishares gold producers on there and a physical gold etf too.

[Wheeler]

53 minutes ago, Errol said:

Shame you still can't buy these on Interactive Investor (ii). They are still claiming there is no KIID for nearly all the gold/silver etf products. Not sure what is going on.

You can definitely buy GDXJ on ii; I bought some in January. That’s via the website so I don’t know if the app is different.

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

Shame you still can't buy these on Interactive Investor (ii). They are still claiming there is no KIID for nearly all the gold/silver etf products. Not sure what is going on.

I will try on Monday out of interest, i suspect they have different tiers of investor so if it goes wrong they can say they have done due dilligence.  I had to fill out a trading experience form a while back and ive not have any problems buying anything i wanted.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

I will try on Monday out of interest, i suspect they have different tiers of investor so if it goes wrong they can say they have done due dilligence.  I had to fill out a trading experience form a while back and ive not have any problems buying anything i wanted.

That would make sense. If you qualify as a professional investor under the ESMA ruling then in theory you can buy anything.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Wheeler said:

You can definitely buy GDXJ on ii; I bought some in January. That’s via the website so I don’t know if the app is different.

Website still says no KIID for me. Are you straight trading or buying through some kind of vehicle - like an ISA?

[Wheeler]

25 minutes ago, Errol said:

Website still says no KIID for me. Are you straight trading or buying through some kind of vehicle - like an ISA?

It’s in a straight trading account, not in an ISA or SIPP. The website is undergoing maintenance at the moment - usual for a Saturday - but when it’s back I’ll log in and check.

[Wheeler]

38 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I will try on Monday out of interest, i suspect they have different tiers of investor so if it goes wrong they can say they have done due dilligence.  I had to fill out a trading experience form a while back and ive not have any problems buying anything i wanted.

I think I filled something in before when I was with TDDI before it was taken over by ii, and I used to do mainly US stocks through it. 

[Noallegiance]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its the one area iv spent most time thinking about and being torn.I trust my roadmaps and always follow them over a cycle.However this up down up down up i see in the PMs keeps me awake.Its not a little wobble,it shows a big fall,although it then shows new highs within 12 months.The roadmaps are very good at direction and im very confident that silver for instance will go along past $100 at least (though fully expect $200 minimum).Not all calls reach the end of the map,some (like this last cycle) go past.Our dis-inflation calls had rates going down to 2% from 22%,not zero.

 

If your road map is as reliable as you state, then there should be no need for concern. It doesn't matter that PMs drop significantly when followed by a vast bull run.

If you trust it that much then just sit on it, surely? Is the concern with selling into the dip and then getting back in before the run?

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Website still says no KIID for me. Are you straight trading or buying through some kind of vehicle - like an ISA?

Are you trying to buy the LSE listed one or the NYSEARCA listed one?

[deathfunk]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agreed on that,if the holding is above comfort size and a very nice profit take some.I sold all my Anglogold Ashanti and my bottom ladder in Harmony.

I like gambling companies and have ladders in them myself.Industry ripe to consolidate in the next cycle.

Would you mind explaining to a noob what you mean by "Ladders" in this context?

Thank you in advance.

[A_P]

Just logged into II, GDX and GDXJ in both ISA and SIPP present me with cost disclosure, KIID and prospectus documents.