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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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30 minutes ago, billfunk said:

Would you mind explaining to a noob what you mean by "Ladders" in this context?

Thank you in advance.

DB means he is buying in at various price points. I think he stated with every 8% decrease in price. No idea at what point he calls it a day if it keeps falling though.

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Just now, A_P said:

DB means he is buying in at various price points. I think he stated with every 8% decrease in price. No idea at what point he calls it a day if it keeps falling though.

I see thanks. I have heard this referred to as "scaling in" from some traders. I only wish I had enough money to scale my positions like this! 

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11 minutes ago, A_P said:

Just logged into II, GDX and GDXJ in both ISA and SIPP present me with cost disclosure, KIID and prospectus documents.

Yep. Just tried Interactive Investor (ii) and GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, SIL, RSX etc etc all untradeable due to no KIID. I get the following red message:

 

We are unable to provide you with a cost disclosure document at the moment. By regulation, we are unable to allow purchases in this instrument.

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2 minutes ago, billfunk said:

I see thanks. I have heard this referred to as "scaling in" from some traders. I only wish I had enough money to scale my positions like this! 

No problem.

Well there are arguments/data to suggest scaling in/dollar cost averaging don't win in the long run as often as time in the market. But you're trading rather than longer term holds aren't you? Can you not split your positions even though they may be small so you can ladder? Personally I tend to split my buys into three but again depends onthe size of the position.

1 minute ago, Errol said:

Yep. Just tried Interactive Investor (ii) and GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, SIL, RSX etc etc all untradeable due to no KIID. I get the following red message:

 

We are unable to provide you with a cost disclosure document at the moment. By regulation, we are unable to allow purchases in this instrument.

Are you trying under UK Equities or International? SIL shouldn't even be listed as it's not on the LSE so I can only assume the latter.

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7 minutes ago, Errol said:

I'm trying by clicking Trade (buy) on things I already own!

That's why then as they will be the US listed one. You can now buy GDX and GDXJ on the LSE. You can probably buy the others on IB if you really want them. TBH II's FX rate is terrible, not ideal to be buying international stocks through them imo. IB will do you FX at spot

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14 minutes ago, A_P said:

No problem.

Well there are arguments/data to suggest scaling in/dollar cost averaging don't win in the long run as often as time in the market. But you're trading rather than longer term holds aren't you? Can you not split your positions even though they may be small so you can ladder? Personally I tend to split my buys into three but again depends onthe size of the position.

Are you trying under UK Equities or International? SIL shouldn't even be listed as it's not on the LSE so I can only assume the latter.

I have bought a few UK shares but am more attracted to US shares as they are more volatile and liquid. There seems to be more multi-baggers in the US and the price action appears to be more conducive to swing trading, particularly in tech. I am looking to swing trade however if I got to know the personality of a stock over the medium term and adopted a long term bullish view I would look to scale out part of my holding during swing highs and buy back in at swing lows. Obviously if I am lucky enough to get into a rocket stock I don't want to dogmatically sell my position because I am a swing trader. I notice a number of NakedTrader's swing trades have become very profitable long term investments and, as I understand, this is a critical aspect of any investors success.

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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/09/carmageddon-for-tesla-model-3-us-deliveries-plunge-55-to-60-from-q4-laid-off-delivery-employees-tell-reuters/

Quote

Musk shed some light on part of the reasons: “The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It’s just like people literally don’t have the money to buy the car.”

There are no words....

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24 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

hehehe, did it just click with him? he might as well say 'why isnt everyone a billionaire like me?' ridiculous twonk.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
7 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Are you trying to buy the LSE listed one or the NYSEARCA listed one?

@Errol, it sounds like you're trying to buy the US version.

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One of the big themes so far this year has been Modern Monetary Theory or MMT for short. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-31/eveything-you-wanted-know-about-mmt-were-afraid-ask

My take on it is that it essentially advocates what @DurhamBornpredicts in that in the next downturn central banks will print money and give it straight to government to spend.

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8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Tesla is one that I just don't get, how can it have such heady valuations. I guess its coming up to crunch time when Q1 numbers get posted

Mortgage Backed Digital Clicks. Companies in the tech or digital sectors, which Tesla have positioned themselves (rather than a car manufactuer lolz) in are pulling all kinds of stunts to woo investors. Please see what happened to the Buzzfeed et al.

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This might be a useful read for those picking divi stocks (hhtps://www.ukinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Master-Investor-Magazine-Issue-46-Free-cash-flow.pdf).

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17 hours ago, billfunk said:

Would you mind explaining to a noob what you mean by "Ladders" in this context?

Thank you in advance.

Playtech i bought some shares at £4.20 and i have "ladders" to buy if their shares hit £3.70,£3.30,£2.90.If they dont il only own one amount.I always use ladders in anything i buy,though not always equal amounts.If i want £10k in a stock i might go £4k,£2k,£2k,£2k etc.

I tend to do my buying at what i consider cycle turns,and i have no way of timing buys and find ladder buying in stocks i already consider cheap works out best for me.Of course if someone was putting £1k into each stock then laddering isnt worth it really due to costs.

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19 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

If your road map is as reliable as you state, then there should be no need for concern. It doesn't matter that PMs drop significantly when followed by a vast bull run.

If you trust it that much then just sit on it, surely? Is the concern with selling into the dip and then getting back in before the run?

Yes thats the concern,selling and then getting back in.Im more bothered about being out of the space though,so its very likely if gold goes to $1500 il simply top slice my miners by 30%.If they do fall that 30% and anything else iv earned in the time will go back in,if not the 70% will carry on and be kept until at least 2025.

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21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Playtech i bought some shares at £4.20 and i have "ladders" to buy if their shares hit £3.70,£3.30,£2.90.If they dont il only own one amount.I always use ladders in anything i buy,though not always equal amounts.If i want £10k in a stock i might go £4k,£2k,£2k,£2k etc.

I tend to do my buying at what i consider cycle turns,and i have no way of timing buys and find ladder buying in stocks i already consider cheap works out best for me.Of course if someone was putting £1k into each stock then laddering isnt worth it really due to costs.

A way round laddering in smaller amounts is regular investing. Obviously exchnge the £10 trading fee for some timing contraints though but might strike a balance for some. Also as we've mentioned before freetrade could prove useful for people wanting to build positions in smaller amounts.

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Bobthebuilder
Just now, A_P said:

A way round laddering in smaller amounts is regular investing. Obviously exchnge the £10 trading fee for some timing contraints though but might strike a balance for some. Also as we've mentioned before freetrade could proove useful for people wanting to build positions in smaller amounts.

Some platforms offer a stock builder type account with monthly fees of £2 per trade. Might be good for smaller amounts.

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Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Some platforms offer a stock builder type account with monthly fees of £2 per trade. Might be good for smaller amounts.

Yeah that's what I mean, they seem to range from £1-£2 depending on your broker. THe only downside is you're restricted to a specific day of the month. Which could easily move against you as much as it could go in your favour. I could envisage Freetrade being a good middle ground for people too. Once positions become sizeable can then transfer to another broker if they want.

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in case you dont subscribe to moneyvator, an OCF breakdown including some of the mentioned gold ETC's are listed hither;

https://monevator.com/low-cost-index-trackers/

tel's latest thoughts also, i know it contains pretty much unloved stocks on this forum, but it has performed pretty well, the future is however where it will die unless old tel switches it about, highly unlikely though.

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/docs/default-source/analysis---annual-letters/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=8

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Interesting tweet the other day from Christians Against Poverty (free debt advice charity), saying they've had their busiest few days in 22 years! We're extremely close to the edge folks, brace positions!

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15 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Interesting tweet the other day from Christians Against Poverty (free debt advice charity), saying they've had their busiest few days in 22 years! We're extremely close to the edge folks, brace positions!

 

 

 

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