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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Did you manage to cash out early enough? 

And many, many thanks for the heads up.  I managed to sell my small holding (bought some near the bottom, and more after you mentioned them few weeks ago) for a £100 profit which would have turned into a loss by about mid- (American) day.

Who knew that occasional sneaky look at my phone at work would eventually payoff!

I wanted to listen to the call before pulling the trigger and it dragged for about an hour into the trading day. Got out @1.30cad so just about break even, as I had bought @1 and doubled down @1.6.

I'm currently without pure gold price play and need to decide whether I want one or if I'm better off sticking to WDO plus my triplet of silver plays (Alexco, Endeavour and First Majestic). 

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Hochschild nudged up to 200, so sold about 20% of my holding that I accumulated at 149 in November. The plan is to sell another 20% if we continue to see the initial PM run at around 250.

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19 hours ago, subutai80 said:

Looking at the weekly FTSE 100 chart. RSI doesn't go below 30 often. Does this make it a buy now (or on the next little dip)?

LCG_Trader.thumb.png.d2df6bf3e18b7c3ded06dcb120aeb7a6.png

If you look more closely,you'll see the low was 31.67 on 16/12,FTSE was at 6721.

There was a debate on here at the time about a Santa rally ref   @Barnsey   FTSE now at 7249.Everyone's been buying for a few weeks.I'd be selective.I think UK shares(that don't have a globallly demanded commodity product,) could be starting to top out.S&P may have more room on a technical basis but is only 150 odd points off peak.

 

Decl:have a few shorts out there.(and a few longs)

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7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

China getting ready to export deflation to the World again, PPI YoY just 0.1% and on a downward trend.

Data is irrelevant, the only thing these junkie stock markets are interested in is when there going to get there next fix of QE heroin.  Good news is good news, Bad news is even better!

TSF%202.2019.jpg?itok=sm-PkI3Z

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Some crazy things going on with the weekly Fed nowcasts over in the States this past week, sharp revisions downward, NY Fed just revised down GDP from 2.17% to 1.08% IN ONE WEEK :ph34r:

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19 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Some crazy things going on with the weekly Fed nowcasts over in the States this past week, sharp revisions downward, NY Fed just revised down GDP from 2.17% to 1.08% IN ONE WEEK :ph34r:

That'll make the front page.... not.

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Clueless Imbecile

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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1 hour ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

It's a funny little place, that mining space. When the real bull market hits I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the worst managed or dishonest companies do best. Sibanye, Yamana, Pretium, First Majestic, you probably have your own list. You know, the big guys. Those guys that would overmine just to get annual production numbers in range while cutting life of mine by a third. Guy who will book their assets at 3x real value. Gold hits 1500 and everything is forgotten, everything is forgiven because they're making tons of money thanks to the sheer size of their operation and 2mln oz per year at $1400 AISC is suddenly a winning proposition. I have simplified my portfolio today to stay with classy explorecos because I don't like supporting bullshiters but from your list pretty much all of them can benefit greatly from a bull run, even NGD to some extent although I'd prepare myself for a lot of short-term pain with that one.

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On 14/02/2019 at 22:04, kibuc said:

I'm shit at trading, but last time they impaired like that (or nothing like that actually, a mere 300mil in July) they dropped 20% on the day but sunk another 13% on the next two trading days and only found the bottom at -60% six weeks later.

I listened to second half of the call and while Adams was quick to stress that share dilution would be considered last resort, I don't know how they're going to proceed without it. With projected AISC around $1400/oz (net of Afton copper, no less!) and half of their production locked under $1300 they are heading for operational loss, and let's not forget over 50mil in debt interest. They'll have to re-finance 500mil in 2022, and 2019 can already be put in the bin. Nah, it doesn't add up. They'll ask the market for lots of money in 2021 or 2022.

I'm probably even worse with the PM miners......thanks for the analysis.

As you predicted they got smashed.

I'm staying in. I've taken a bigger hit with this one as it was part of my first tranche of goldies and I hadn't learned to spread myself thinly.Stock picking in these is an incredibly tough business.

14 hours ago, kibuc said:

I wanted to listen to the call before pulling the trigger and it dragged for about an hour into the trading day. Got out @1.30cad so just about break even, as I had bought @1 and doubled down @1.6.

I'm currently without pure gold price play and need to decide whether I want one or if I'm better off sticking to WDO plus my triplet of silver plays (Alexco, Endeavour and First Majestic). 

I personally woild stay widely spread

1 hour ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

It's the asset class you're investing primarily not the individual stocks from the sounds of it.My lesson as abopve is staying sporead thinly across it.A rising tide does lift most boats but expereicne as we've both had shows there are a lot more pit falls to buying PM miners than you get buying big oil companies.

47 minutes ago, kibuc said:

It's a funny little place, that mining space. When the real bull market hits I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the worst managed or dishonest companies do best. Sibanye, Yamana, Pretium, First Majestic, you probably have your own list. You know, the big guys. Those guys that would overmine just to get annual production numbers in range while cutting life of mine by a third. Guy who will book their assets at 3x real value. Gold hits 1500 and everything is forgotten, everything is forgiven because they're making tons of money thanks to the sheer size of their operation and 2mln oz per year at $1400 AISC is suddenly a winning proposition. I have simplified my portfolio today to stay with classy explorecos because I don't like supporting bullshiters but from your list pretty much all of them can benefit greatly from a bull run, even NGD to some extent although I'd prepare myself for a lot of short-term pain with that one.

I agree,I don't have your specific knowledge but if it goes like the tech bubble,some proper fraudsters will get out before the top.

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2 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

I’m equally clueless but I think DB would be ‘top slicing’ the ones that are in the black ie sell about 30% of the ones that have done rather well 

not sure if you have the stomach to then use the profits to double down on the losers given a rising tide should float all boats..?

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im just trickling into funds, some are silver, some gold, some other (none PM) wont be as violent and trickling means averaging slowly if up/down, best performer is still FUNDSMITH T acc, up 50% since march 2018.

Possibly get smashed, but has to lose 50% to go back to break even.

Invesco Income Fund (UK) (Inc)
Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Res B
SCHRODER UNIT TST TOKYO Z ACC
Investec Global Gold I Acc GBP
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11 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

It's interesting that your natural inclination is to sell the shares that have done well, and keep the shares that have done badly.

I tend to fall into the same thought pattern. Whether it's the right or wrong thing to do in an individual trading decision I don't know (sometimes it will be, and sometimes it won't), but as a strategy I worry that it leads you to limit the potential of your good trades while extending the bad ones. 

For that reason I try to set up the conditions that will lead me to sell before I buy. That way I don't have to worry about it, I can just stick to the plan. 

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after holding some lloyds shares for 5 or 6 years after the gfc thinking they'd recover;

1.the never did.

2.taking the loss by selling took the angst out of it, i never bothered to look at lloyds shares again after that, and eventually made up the loss elsewhere.

3.and as always, dont bet the farm, even on a sure fire winner.

Im not saying the PM shares are the same and wont recover, but with NGD youve got to take the hint at some point that there isnt really any good news for them on the horizon unless they get bought out, but theres better out there for buying up than them.

as ever: anecdotal.

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I take losses when my criteria are met and quite happily, posting them to my training expense account or general trading account depending on the cause, which in turn depends on my degree of honesty.  With frequent trades, losses are the stepping stones to the profits, providing you take them early enough to stay in the game.  Plus, taking losses exercises that contra psycho muscle you need, normal behaviour being to cut profits and run losses. 

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I try to base my loss/profit taking decisions on fundamentals, not on share price movements. NGD story changed significantly with the latest news release and I decided to close my position. If they dropped like they just did with the story unchanged I would have backed up the truck instead. 

Shares can move on variety of non-story related factors, like being removed from a particual index, long outstanding warrants getting executed, big players taking their profits etc. If you believe in the story and you're in it for a long haul, it's just another buying opportunity.

I backed WDO at 2.50cad and went all-in at 2.75cad but that story just keeps getting better and I see no reason to sell at 5cad. In fact, I wouldn't sell at 10cad either. 

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3 hours ago, Harley said:

I take losses when my criteria are met and quite happily, posting them to my training expense account or general trading account depending on the cause, which in turn depends on my degree of honesty.  With frequent trades, losses are the stepping stones to the profits, providing you take them early enough to stay in the game.  Plus, taking losses exercises that contra psycho muscle you need, normal behaviour being to cut profits and run losses. 

Number 1 nail hit on number 1 head.

Beautifully put

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

after holding some lloyds shares for 5 or 6 years after the gfc thinking they'd recover;

1.the never did.

2.taking the loss by selling took the angst out of it, i never bothered to look at lloyds shares again after that, and eventually made up the loss elsewhere.

3.and as always, dont bet the farm, even on a sure fire winner.

Im not saying the PM shares are the same and wont recover, but with NGD youve got to take the hint at some point that there isnt really any good news for them on the horizon unless they get bought out, but theres better out there for buying up than them.

as ever: anecdotal.

I'll hold my NGD, as we're down circa 75% and I remember some of my tech stocks eg geo Interactive media dropping from £1.30 buy price to £0.15 and then going to £36 briefly-my mum refused to sell because she didn't want to pay any capital gains.I well remember it.....

Across the board purchases from 17/18, I reckon we're even or up slightly,but these are going to be long term holds.When we stepped into this asset class,we knew it was going to be volatile-just not as volatile as it has been.

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ok, all fair points, to each their own.

Ill agree with the long term points, you never know whats going to happen, but im definately feeling a 2nd chance coming after dot com mania and death, lets home this bastard has some legs this time, im definately not missing this one.

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11 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ok, all fair points, to each their own.

Ill agree with the long term points, you never know whats going to happen, but im definately feeling a 2nd chance coming after dot com mania and death, lets home this bastard has some legs this time, im definately not missing this one.

If I was down 50% then I might sell but at 75% I'm stuggling to see the point lol.Our Eldorado are hugely down as well......

Like I say,don't take my advice on the miners lol

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20 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

What to do... what to do...?

My PM mining stocks are as follows when I checked recently:

ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV  -26.02%

HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50  25.70%

NEW GOLD INC COM NPV  -57.35% (ouch!!)

SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS  46.21% (cool!!)

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV  -12.01%

I invested similar amounts in each stock. I haven't done the calculation but I guess it probably works out at a small loss.

It crossed my mind to sell the Sibanye (and maybe also the Harmony) to get a decent profit while I can, and hold the others in the hope that they recover. However... if there was to be a bull market in PMs & PM miners, then what if Sibanye and Harmony ended up rising the most (after I'd sold them)?

My current thinking is that I'll just hold for a while in the hope that a future bull market might lift at least one of the stocks enough to get me a decent profit overall.

What does the panel think? (I know it's not advice!)


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Sell the top slice in Sibanye and use to keep buying those silver miners like Endeavour,im up 14% on Endeavour and some of my Harmony were up 45% when i top sliced.The key to buying a spread is that one of them might 10 bag and im pretty sure a few will 5 bag minimum going forward.

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UnconventionalWisdom

Another mainstream article describing what @DurhamBorn has been talking about for a couple of years. Interesting times over the next 6 months. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/-land-of-confusion-as-junk-defies-wall-street-recession-signal

“Debt costs are likely to rise as credit spreads expand to price in the higher default risk as we move to the end of the economic cycle,” Park said. “If flows were to reverse liquidity could become squeezed quite rapidly.”

 

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Hi all,

First post after lurking for some time and reading through everything in this thread.

Firstly thank you all for sharing this knowledge.

I think someone else made a thread "for newbies" on this topic on how to respond to the deflation/reflation roadmap/ideas discussed elsewhere but has gone a bit quiet.

A lot to take in for a relative novice investor - don't worry I'm not about to go and put everything into PM miners.

Just thinking what I can do in my situation as a 34 year old to best position myself for all this

No property and working in mechanical engineering (although not infrastructure based, more product development), looking to move around the north east/yorkshire area if I can find the right job but getting paid a better contract rate to live in the east midlands...for now, although I don't like the place. The bulk of my earnings is going into cash as a house deposit, small amount into a Lifestrategy 100 SIPP each month (£300) and some left over to potentially to take advantage of this information here.

Not wanting to make the thread about me or go and do something crazy based on forum advice - but any ideas on where to start in my situation in the light of this thread??

Thank you

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On 15/02/2019 at 14:01, sancho panza said:

If you look more closely,you'll see the low was 31.67 on 16/12,FTSE was at 6721.

There was a debate on here at the time about a Santa rally ref   @Barnsey   FTSE now at 7249.Everyone's been buying for a few weeks.I'd be selective.I think UK shares(that don't have a globallly demanded commodity product,) could be starting to top out.S&P may have more room on a technical basis but is only 150 odd points off peak.

 

Decl:have a few shorts out there.(and a few longs)

Thanks @sancho panza

Any thoughts on the effects of the increased pension contributions might or might not have on the market?

Quote

Since 2012, 10 million eligible workers have been automatically signed up to workplace pensions.

From April, their contribution will rise from 3% of their salary to 5%.

Plus 1% increase employer contribution. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47269042

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Democorruptcy
On 16/02/2019 at 10:23, Harley said:

I take losses when my criteria are met and quite happily, posting them to my training expense account or general trading account depending on the cause, which in turn depends on my degree of honesty.  With frequent trades, losses are the stepping stones to the profits, providing you take them early enough to stay in the game.  Plus, taking losses exercises that contra psycho muscle you need, normal behaviour being to cut profits and run losses. 

It's all about doing whatever it takes to stay in the game.  The main part of that for me is taking big losses out of the equation. Nobody is perfect and we all make mistakes, the thing is to make sure you don't turn a small mistake into a large one. This might mean taking an annoying loss but it's something you can forget about and you know it will come back later. I've worked behind the counter at a bookies and I've often seen the 'red mist' descend. A lot of people are clearly unable to take a loss so they chase it, having bets completely out of character, throwing away winnings accrued over a long period of time, in one day. Take a loss and don't let it fester.

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