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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Meanwhile GOLD is trading at levels not seen since Apr 2018, if it stays over 1325, 1365-1375 area is the next target and that would be the multi year high.

$1500 is my target Bear and then decide what to do.

In other news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

Demand is going to collapse for big ticket items for the consumer.At the same time public transport will expand.

Scrap yards are going to be doing very well going forward as cars are kept on the road much longer and the small local mechanics will be doing very nicely.

 

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28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

$1500 is my target Bear and then decide what to do.

In other news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

Demand is going to collapse for big ticket items for the consumer.At the same time public transport will expand.

Scrap yards are going to be doing very well going forward as cars are kept on the road much longer and the small local mechanics will be doing very nicely.

 

They'll make up for it somewhere else, primarily consumables. I got my car into MOT this morning and I just received a call for £600 in repairs (front pads, disks and and roll bar links). The car might be 11 years old but new parts and labour always cost the same!

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

$1500 is my target Bear and then decide what to do.

If we take 1365-1375 zone then 1490-1530 is within easy reach as there is very little resistance in between.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

They'll make up for it somewhere else, primarily consumables. I got my car into MOT this morning and I just received a call for £600 in repairs (front pads, disks and and roll bar links). The car might be 11 years old but new parts and labour always cost the same!

Thats a £200 job kibuc,£280 max,dont let them do the job,take it to a small independant to do then take back for the retest.That garage is having a laugh with you.(unless you have some real high end car of course).

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26 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

If we take 1365-1375 zone then 1490-1530 is within easy reach as there is very little resistance in between.

I think May/June is when we start to trend Bear,im expecting inflation to tick up in the US then and TIPs to start to head higher that will give PMs the kick to trend.

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17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats a £200 job kibuc,£280 max,dont let them do the job,take it to a small independant to do then take back for the retest.That garage is having a laugh with you.(unless you have some real high end car of course).

Nah, a 2008 Hyundai i30, a rather basic but serviceable chariot. A quick check online returns a ballpark figure of £150 per disk+pad and similar for roll links, so very much in line with what the garage charged. However, I might go around local indy shops and check how much I could have saved. I walk and talk like an absolute automotive ignorant that I am so I'll probably get milked wherever I go.

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48 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Nah, a 2008 Hyundai i30, a rather basic but serviceable chariot. A quick check online returns a ballpark figure of £150 per disk+pad and similar for roll links, so very much in line with what the garage charged. However, I might go around local indy shops and check how much I could have saved. I walk and talk like an absolute automotive ignorant that I am so I'll probably get milked wherever I go.

anti roll bar links? is it just the rubbers, if so its much cheaper to just change the rubbers, a lot of places wont change them because they dont have a press to put new ones on, so they change the whole assembly which is easier and much more expensive, you may well find that dealer can actually press new rubbers on and can therefore be cheaper, ive seen this with my vw, unbelievably the main dealer was cheaper than my usualy corner knocker because they had the press.

NB. at £150 for each disk and pad they better by 20 inch drilled vented high end disks, ive just asked mycorner knocker to my back disks and pads and he wants £135 the lot, those are solid disks, but i wouldnt expect to be paying more than £180 for the fronts all in and those are larger vented disks.

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6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Well, I guess I got shafted. Nothing new :) Still less expensive than my trade in New Gold :P

New Gold may actually recover once Gold itself breaks the 1365-1375 resistance which should then get enough media attention to add fuel to anything with "Gold" in its name xD

 

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think May/June is when we start to trend Bear,im expecting inflation to tick up in the US then and TIPs to start to head higher that will give PMs the kick to trend.

Hard to say I'm not good at timing, but I expect an attack on the 2018 highs sooner than later.

btw. Yes, I do hold some Gold ETFs and a few miners so I'm biased.

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1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

New Gold may actually recover once Gold itself breaks the 1365-1375 resistance which should then get enough media attention to add fuel to anything with "Gold" in its name xD

If I told anyone in the office that I invested in 'new gold' they would probably think Bitcoin.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Nah, a 2008 Hyundai i30, a rather basic but serviceable chariot. A quick check online returns a ballpark figure of £150 per disk+pad and similar for roll links, so very much in line with what the garage charged. However, I might go around local indy shops and check how much I could have saved. I walk and talk like an absolute automotive ignorant that I am so I'll probably get milked wherever I go.

I work for Cummins Engines kibuc and would expect to pay about £250 for front and back brakes discs and pads and shoes.Its often best to find a small garage with a couple of lads,no reception etc,just them.Some of them will give you a price to fit parts and you can buy them yourself from a local motor factors or scrappy.For an example my son needed a new gearbox and clutch.I got the gearbox from a scrappy for £220,a new clutch for £90 and the lads did the job for £200.So £510 to change a gearbox and clutch,a big job.Worth finding an indy place and taking all family cars there.Usually they are spot on once you become a regular.

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44 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

anti roll bar links? is it just the rubbers, if so its much cheaper to just change the rubbers, a lot of places wont change them because they dont have a press to put new ones on, so they change the whole assembly which is easier and much more expensive, you may well find that dealer can actually press new rubbers on and can therefore be cheaper, ive seen this with my vw, unbelievably the main dealer was cheaper than my usualy corner knocker because they had the press.

NB. at £150 for each disk and pad they better by 20 inch drilled vented high end disks, ive just asked mycorner knocker to my back disks and pads and he wants £135 the lot, those are solid disks, but i wouldnt expect to be paying more than £180 for the fronts all in and those are larger vented disks.

Yeah agree,id expect around £250/280 for front and back,maximum for front like you say £180 for top notch disks.

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12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think there is planning in it yes.I think its more to do with government understanding 20%/30% of the population are unemployable in the modern age and another 20% cant earn anywhere near whats needed.The only way the government can pay for these is by keeping those who do work hard working.The best way to do that is trap in long term housing debt.People hate losing their homes,its in our DNA and we will do everything to stop that.That means 35 years of debt minimum now.The government also needs to stop people growing capital outside of a pension,or at least to any scale needed.Thats why you see very little about building dividend portfolios etc from government or investing in equity.The only equity they mention is housing,and thats the easiest equity to eliminate if needed.

My friend put it in simple terms.The people who own the grouse moors need to stop the low IQ people stealing their wealth.To do that they tax the middle to give them generous benefits.The added bonus is that tax goes into benefits,through the "poor" and ends up with the grouse moor owners.Its a perfect system for keeping the "poor" in their little lives,taking away middle class wealth and moving it to the said asset owners.The middle class then blame the "poor".

The middle class have built up wealth in housing mostly this cycle (1979 until 2018) and that is where the most wealth will be stripped away.In 10 years nobody will see their house as their pension,and leveraged BTL wont exist for anyone with ideas of one to five properties.

Sad but true.

A great analogy from your friend.

And strangely,even amongst my middle class circle of acqauintance,teh only invesmtent anyone champions is property.Even the ones in finance,which shows how badly most pensions are managed.

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3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Well, I guess I got shafted. Nothing new :) Still less expensive than my trade in New Gold :P

Overshcarged,maybe.Shafted is getting charged for an air filter and they don't even lift the cover.

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6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

$1500 is my target Bear and then decide what to do.

In other news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

Demand is going to collapse for big ticket items for the consumer.At the same time public transport will expand.

Scrap yards are going to be doing very well going forward as cars are kept on the road much longer and the small local mechanics will be doing very nicely.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/17/the-wolf-street-report-whats-causing-the-subprime-auto-loan-fiasco/

 

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Not sure on the significance

 

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/redbook-retail-index-confirms-commerce-department-december-retail-collapse-37vfi1tFgkm79UuqJrEXCQ/

Some economists were in disbelief regarding the huge collapse in retail sales in December. Other indicators now confirm.

That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn't posted.

Redbook

The Johnson Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales, and provides advanced estimates of trends in retail sales ahead of official releases and company reports in an easy-to-read four-page report. The weekly indicator is made public every Tuesday morning, with clients receiving notice via conference call, e-mail or fax prior to public release.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Monthly is a comprehensive report of same-store sales data reported monthly by general merchandise and apparel retailers. Analysis is given on current month sales, year-on-year, quarterly and annual sales, historical sales data and company rankings. Retailers are tracked across categories: Apparel Specialty, Books, Toy & Hobby, Department, Discount, Footwear, Furniture, Drug, Home Improvement, Home Furnishings, Electronic, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index (SSI), an index of year-on-year same-store sales growth is reported in each edition.

Shockingly Weak Retail Sales

And its not just retail sales either.

Other Confirming Indicators

Very Recessionary

Add it all up and it looks very recessionary. And the EU is already there. Eurozone Recession: Right Here, Right Now!

There is no reason to believe the US will be immune to a global slowdown. People thought that China would decouple in 2008. It didn't. The US won't either.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
15 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Any thoughts on commodity securities ETFs? The price of food is going to go up, bit macabre but finding a way - other than Saskatchewan potash - to profit from it seems sensible.

Are they Nutrien now? Was having a look at them today, along with Paladin uranium miners. Considering putting a bit into each at some point.

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@sancho panza leads and lags.Once you cut liquidity its only a question of when.If you turn off the engines on a ship it keeps moving forward for quite a while,slowly stops,then goes backwards as the tide turns.Now we see the slowdown the leveraged start to go down,and those who are facing the consumer full force.Iv been buying more quality clothes this week on Ebay auctions.A couple of lovely Next coats won for 99p and £2.99 and a £250 pair of hardly used Barker shoes for £12.50.Iv spent around £500 all in now.Il need no new clothes for a good few years.Im sure the prices will start to go up a lot as people give less away to charity,the middle class women have less empty the hubbies wardrobe once a year so they can order him new clothes etc.I noticed a new hobby spreading is clubs where people meet up and help each other fix things.All tiny examples of things changing.

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14 hours ago, kibuc said:

They'll make up for it somewhere else, primarily consumables. I got my car into MOT this morning and I just received a call for £600 in repairs (front pads, disks and and roll bar links). The car might be 11 years old but new parts and labour always cost the same!

Jesus what are you driving, Hamilton's `hand me down` or Vettel`s latest model?!...even in the SE at a local/independent garage that  should be £300 max.

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Jesus what are you driving, Hamilton's `hand me down` or Vettel`s latest model?!...even in the SE at a local/independent garage that  should be £300 max.

As a guide i paid £600 for new front discs and pads (vented), full service, valet, wheel alignment,mot, pick up and drop off for a 2lt Mazda at main dealer in London.

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Bobthebuilder
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza leads and lags.Once you cut liquidity its only a question of when.If you turn off the engines on a ship it keeps moving forward for quite a while,slowly stops,then goes backwards as the tide turns.Now we see the slowdown the leveraged start to go down,and those who are facing the consumer full force.Iv been buying more quality clothes this week on Ebay auctions.A couple of lovely Next coats won for 99p and £2.99 and a £250 pair of hardly used Barker shoes for £12.50.Iv spent around £500 all in now.Il need no new clothes for a good few years.Im sure the prices will start to go up a lot as people give less away to charity,the middle class women have less empty the hubbies wardrobe once a year so they can order him new clothes etc.I noticed a new hobby spreading is clubs where people meet up and help each other fix things.All tiny examples of things changing.

Sorry to link the Guardian but it seems to be becoming trendy.

https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2019/feb/19/dont-feed-monster-the-people-who-have-stopped-buying-new-clothes

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Peter Schiff agrees with durhamborn about the coming inflationary depression, interesting 35 min video which gives a short history of how we got to the edge of the abyss too:P

 

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