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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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11 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Miners are on fire today :D

 

Central banks fingers are hovering over Ctrl + P, China printed 5% of its GDP in January.  QE to infinity and beyond!

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Miners are on fire today :D

Been looking at technical charts this afternoon for all my target buy and holds.  Almost nada, certainly no new buys.  More the market looks like topping at least short term.  Stock technicals are weakening and my canary FTSE short ETF may start turning up soon.  Bought in March, October and December and now just going to the gym a lot!  BUT the miners have been doing well (I just look at the aggregates like GDX).  Trouble is my system just doesn't work for this market!  The GDX run up from 11 Sep 18 was impressive since the SPX, FTSE, etc were in decline.  But they seem to be moving in lockstep since these markets turned.  And given my caution on those markets, I'll think I'll wait and spend the time trying (again!) to come up with a custom trading system for them!  I'm a bit bummed I'd didn't get in more in Dec 18 but I was distracted, plus I still expect this year to be up and down so hopefully another opportunity will be along soon! 

PS: Think I might have a lead on a system for the miners - use the gold price (which does seem to behave) as a proxy and buy say GDX on buy signals for gold.  Bit obvious really.  The big issue though is selling early enough (if sensible) 'cause GDX certainly undershoots gold which would cause me to miss a large part of a later run up!

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

 

I hope some of you purchased some of this. I'm up around 67% so far.

I wish.  So far, AngloGold Ashanti is a leader in a race to double for me.   That would be a massive....

...£100 profit

 

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Clueless Imbecile

Hi Guys. Thanks for your replies to my recent post.

Just thought I'd tell you about an intensely annoying experience I have just had...

I just tried to sell some of my SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS this evening whilst the NYSE was open. My holding was up about 55 percent at one point.

However, my online share dealing ISA (Lloyds Bank) would not allow me to trade them. Long story short... after calling them and waiting on hold for a while they told me that the stock is no longer ISA eligible (you what?!!). That's even though I was able to buy them through my online ISA last year.

They said I can phone them tomorrow and get them to carry out a trade for me over the phone, but obviously the share price could have moved by then. This has really given me cold feet. My current thinking (which could change) is that if the stock is still showing a good profit for me tomorrow then I might call them and ask them to sell all of my Sibanye Gold Ltd shares (rather than just top-slicing). It's not much good to me if I can't trade online as & when I want to. It's hard enough making money from the stock market as it is, without having my hands tied like that. I asked about my other NYSE listed stocks and they seemed to think that I would still be ok to trade them online in my ISA.

I was all set to top-slice and make a decent profit tonight. Well pissed-off now...!


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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9 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I just tried to sell some of my SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS this evening whilst the NYSE was open. My holding was up about 55 percent at one point.

However, my online share dealing ISA (Lloyds Bank) would not allow me to trade them. Long story short... after calling them and waiting on hold for a while they told me that the stock is no longer ISA eligible (you what?!!). That's even though I was able to buy them through my online ISA last year.

I just put in a test order below market price to buy it in my IG ISA account and the order was accepted without problems.  It sounds like an issue with Lloyds.

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47 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Hi Guys. Thanks for your replies to my recent post.

Just thought I'd tell you about an intensely annoying experience I have just had...

I just tried to sell some of my SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS this evening whilst the NYSE was open. My holding was up about 55 percent at one point.

However, my online share dealing ISA (Lloyds Bank) would not allow me to trade them. Long story short... after calling them and waiting on hold for a while they told me that the stock is no longer ISA eligible (you what?!!). That's even though I was able to buy them through my online ISA last year.

They said I can phone them tomorrow and get them to carry out a trade for me over the phone, but obviously the share price could have moved by then. This has really given me cold feet. My current thinking (which could change) is that if the stock is still showing a good profit for me tomorrow then I might call them and ask them to sell all of my Sibanye Gold Ltd shares (rather than just top-slicing). It's not much good to me if I can't trade online as & when I want to. It's hard enough making money from the stock market as it is, without having my hands tied like that. I asked about my other NYSE listed stocks and they seemed to think that I would still be ok to trade them online in my ISA.

I was all set to top-slice and make a decent profit tonight. Well pissed-off now...!


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

The problem is you have your ISA with Lloyds, in my experience their customer service is shit, and product knowledge non-existent. I would transfer the ISA sharpish to another provider come April if I were you.

My experience was not ISA related however, but Avios credit card (back when I was manufactured spending to rack up points) but it angered me enough to never had anything to do with Lloyds again.

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Bit late now but I did the front discs and pads on my Mk3 Mondeo for 70 quid, and even then was slightly aggrieved at the cost of the parts (Pagid, from ECP). Took me a leisurely 90 minutes a side from sticking the jack under the car to dropping it again, and that included greasing the slider pins and taking the rust off the carriers with a wire brush. Dead easy job.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
7 hours ago, A_P said:

Nah...its only on that pleb rag DM :ph34r: however if that news was on the front page of:  The Economist Magazine ...YEAH SELL!

Still i like one of the comments on the DM article...

"I've bought gold recently, mainly as a hedge against Jeremy Corbyn..!" xD

0395502B0000044D-0-image-a-16_1550576301

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Talking Monkey
On ‎18‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 12:21, DurhamBorn said:

Trusts are your friend for this,and pensions.

Hi DB we have talked extensively on this thread about pensions and the advantages of SIPPs etc. However I don't recall much discussion about Trusts, would you be able to elaborate a little on the topic, I'm sure many of us reading would benefit from understanding some of the concepts and practicalities involved in using Trusts

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8 hours ago, Sideysid said:

The problem is you have your ISA with Lloyds, in my experience their customer service is shit, and product knowledge non-existent. I would transfer the ISA sharpish to another provider come April if I were you.

My experience was not ISA related however, but Avios credit card (back when I was manufactured spending to rack up points) but it angered me enough to never had anything to do with Lloyds again.

Ditto HSBC....I sometimes wonder if they are incompetent on purpose I.e. when it suits them, to maximize their profits!

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4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Nah...its only on that pleb rag DM :ph34r: however if that news was on the front page of:  The Economist Magazine ...YEAH SELL!

Still i like one of the comments on the DM article...

"I've bought gold recently, mainly as a hedge against Jeremy Corbyn..!" xD

0395502B0000044D-0-image-a-16_1550576301

Indeed. It's a good forewarning though, miners now entered into the sights of the MSM. Buy the rumour sell the news. It served me well. I significantly reduced my crypto holdings when it was plastered all over the DM and subsequently had a colleague who was terrible with money and complete technophobe asking me about it.

I'll keep my physical etf as it's part of my constant portfolio allocation but will likely be bowing out of my miners etf shortly. Happy with the return

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48 minutes ago, A_P said:

Indeed. It's a good forewarning though, miners now entered into the sights of the MSM. Buy the rumour sell the news. It served me well. I significantly reduced my crypto holdings when it was plastered all over the DM and subsequently had a colleague who was terrible with money and complete technophobe asking me about it.

I'll keep my physical etf as it's part of my constant portfolio allocation but will likely be bowing out of my miners etf shortly. Happy with the return

It's worth rememebring that from the moment Bitcoin entered the MSM (which I believe was when it surpassed the price of gold) it still managed to almost 20-bag in a proper mania phase. In gold we have merely bounced off the bottom.

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1 minute ago, kibuc said:

It's worth rememebring that from the moment Bitcoin entered the MSM (which I believe was when it surpassed the price of gold) it still managed to almost 20-bag in a proper mania phase. In gold we have merely bounced off the bottom.

It's also worth noting bitcoin didn't bag as much as other coins ;) nor did it 20 bag once it was hitting the mail every day, it was closer to 2x-4x depending when you want to go from and the headline position. But from my personal experience it was almost at peak when normies were asking. I'm not saying miners are going to have the same journey (aka this thread),  just once it hits somewhere like the DM it's worth taking stock. One thing that could be certain is that you're definitely behind the curve if DM/Thismoney is ones source of buying info. For me I'm happy with the performance to close/significantly reduce my gold miner position shortly. I went for a larger single position than multiple small positions in single miners looking for ten baggers.

Have we bounced of the bottom with gold? You might want to look at golds performance as an asset over the years

bofa-asset-quilt-returns-1.jpg&f=1

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17 minutes ago, kibuc said:

It's worth rememebring that from the moment Bitcoin entered the MSM (which I believe was when it surpassed the price of gold) it still managed to almost 20-bag in a proper mania phase. In gold we have merely bounced off the bottom.

Had great fun drawing charts in the condensation of our work smoking shelter when bitcoin was in the news. 10,000 and everybody wanted to pile in and drag eacother to the cliffedge. Brilliant. Felt like a proper smartarse.

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36 minutes ago, A_P said:

It's also worth noting bitcoin didn't bag as much as other coins ;) nor did it 20 bag once it was hitting the mail every day, it was closer to 2x-4x depending when you want to go from and the headline position. But from my personal experience it was almost at peak when normies were asking. I'm not saying miners are going to have the same journey (aka this thread),  just once it hits somewhere like the DM it's worth taking stock. One thing that could be certain is that you're definitely behind the curve if DM/Thismoney is ones source of buying info. For me I'm happy with the performance to close/significantly reduce my gold miner position shortly. I went for a larger single position than multiple small positions in single miners looking for ten baggers.

Have we bounced of the bottom with gold? You might want to look at golds performance as an asset over the years

You do have a point, but if you look at the 10 year Gold chart it really hasn't been a good investment!  Silver is even worse.

So in that respect I don't agree, the attached picture explains much better than I could.

psychology-of-asset-bubbles.jpg

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18 minutes ago, kibuc said:

@A_P when looking at gold in your table, it's also worth taking a peek at SP 500. For me it's clear that in relative terms gold is near the bottom.

Capture.PNG

Is looking at it against the SP or another index a fallacy? As Major says it's not been a good investment for the last five or six years. With that said if you go back to the beginning of the quilt and your graph its had more days in the sun than not. Perhaps a bit of shortermitus going on? Is gold an investment or a source of capital/wealth preservation? Are you looking for a quick trade of gold to ten bag it? Holding a set amount within a portfolio it will do it's job over time for me.

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Bricks & Mortar

I don't see this entry in the mail as sustained media coverage.  They'll print this story every so often, and if it goes big they'll come back and say, "told you so."
I'll be sitting up when they run it outside of the investing page.

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10 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I don't see this entry in the mail as sustained media coverage.  They'll print this story every so often, and if it goes big they'll come back and say, "told you so."
I'll be sitting up when they run it outside of the investing page.

It was half way down on the main DM website where I saw it, not the thisismoney where it was the lead story :D

On a more serious note as my original post was more in a lightheartedness manner as a single article is hardly getting pump going. However, does the article tie in with DB's timeframe of the miners surging then pulling back? Is this the start? The smart money will need/want an exit. IMO watch this space :ph34r:

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On 19/02/2019 at 01:08, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Are they Nutrien now? Was having a look at them today, along with Paladin uranium miners. Considering putting a bit into each at some point.

Yep that's now Nutrien. Have no idea if it's a decent buy now. 

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

It was half way down on the main DM website where I saw it, not the thisismoney where it was the lead story :D

On a more serious note as my original post was more in a lightheartedness manner as a single article is hardly getting pump going. However, does the article tie in with DB's timeframe of the miners surging then pulling back? Is this the start? The smart money will need/want an exit. IMO watch this space :ph34r:

I'm open to a possibility of a pullback and I understand your inclination to cut exposure via ETFs. Personally, I'm invested mostly in juniors/explorers that should be a bit more agnostic to the price of gold (WDO/AXR) but I'm also considering taking some profits after PDAC in early March and looking at some FTSE reflation stocks for the first time, or maybe upping my stake in INFA. But quite frankly, I don't see a pump in gold going on, rather a start of a long-term uptrend with possible corrections on the way.

 

Edit: FED minutes are relased today and they might reverse or reinforce the move.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-20/tesla-general-counsel-quits-after-just-two-months

Tesla saga rumbles on. Musk desperately needs to ramp the share price up above the convertible warrants price but is going through attorneys at an alarming rate as a consequence. 

Interesting as IMO they are likely to be one of the first casualties of a deflation, expensive luxury product and lots of debt to refinance.

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