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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Apologies I've not been very active here for a while but very much appreciate the blog, how its run and the quality of opinions and insight here.

A quick question for those who understand markets better than me. I've noticed recently with a number of shares i own a trend where the price appreciates over a month or so prior to results then falls significantly on the day of results having fallen a little the day before results. I've noted this recently for example for CNA, FRES and IGG. I am holding LGEN which announces on Wednesday and am considering selling today/tomorrow and then buying back after results have been announced when the share hits technical support. I appreciate this may be the market we are in with profits falling short of expectations or is it an acknowledged trend of capital riding the share price in the build up to results and then selling/shorting around results day? Appreciate any insight anyone can offer.

 

 

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8 hours ago, sam1994 said:

@Hardhat do you just have a single vanguard holding or are you spread across the platform?

Most in LS100 but also emerging markets and ftse. I couldn't find a PM fund available in the UK on there 

I will most likely leave the current money invested, just stop adding more due to the ISA rules (only pay in to one of each type of ISA per year) and wanting to pick stocks with the tax free benefit. That said if we do get a big recession it could be a buying opportunity for passive funds. If money floods out of the passive sector that will then become the new contrarian play...

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55 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

An awful lot of PM miners are struggling to stay profitable at current prices, HOC/FRES/CEY all had terrible results with prices where there are.  Im starting to think that there are not too many more people to be shook out of the sector.

Then there is mining higher grade areas for short term gain long term pain, cutting back on exploration, closing mines, AISC not being all in and the financial results showing a lot less profit than there should be as a result etc....

Its all shaping up to be one hell of a ride, if there is significant manipulation in PM's to cap the price its irrelevant in the long run, you need to make profit to mine the stuff and if the world cant mine enough you end up with what's happening with palladium.

I think HOC putting the Arcata mine on maintenance was a good move at current prices, the drop in production was obvious. I think they’re one of the ones in better shape going forward, especially as they are still reducing their debt (which has been cut down already)

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5 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

I think HOC putting the Arcata mine on maintenance was a good move at current prices, the drop in production was obvious. I think they’re one of the ones in better shape going forward, especially as they are still reducing their debt (which has been cut down already) 

Yeah, they didn't have much choice since it has been cashflow negative for a year now.

Its a sign of the times when a mine going for 50+ years, which still has a whopping resource base, cant produce cheaply enough to stay in operation.  It will be interesting to see if they do manage to shut it down, if silver starts to run in May/June (TM Durhamborn) it will be back up to 100% pronto.

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2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

An awful lot of PM miners are struggling to stay profitable at current prices, HOC/FRES/CEY all had terrible results with prices where there are.  Im starting to think that there are not too many more people to be shook out of the sector.

Then there is mining higher grade areas for short term gain long term pain, cutting back on exploration, closing mines, AISC not being all in and the financial results showing a lot less profit than there should be as a result etc....

Its all shaping up to be one hell of a ride, if there is significant manipulation in PM's to cap the price its irrelevant in the long run, you need to make profit to mine the stuff and if the world cant mine enough you end up with what's happening with palladium.

Lots of issues there which sometimes make me wonder if ETFs and Physical are more suited to some over the 8/9/10 year timescale we’re talking about on this thread. It’s a volatile industry, as we know, even if you pick a company that doesn’t suffer from terrible management and find a great Junior... it may well get bought out early in the cycle.

Not a problem personally as I enjoy these aspects and look forward to semi-actively investing. Not sure how well it lends itself to passive investing though? Maybe the Tier 1 miners are more suited to purely passive than the juniors?

I dunno, just musing really.

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1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

Lots of issues there which sometimes make me wonder if ETFs and Physical are more suited to some over the 8/9/10 year timescale we’re talking about on this thread. It’s a volatile industry, as we know, even if you pick a company that doesn’t suffer from terrible management and find a great Junior... it may well get bought out early in the cycle.

Not a problem personally as I enjoy these aspects and look forward to semi-actively investing. Not sure how well it lends itself to passive investing though? Maybe the Tier 1 miners are more suited to purely passive than the juniors?

I dunno, just musing really. 

I would rather take my chances with nominee shares/ownership of a company than an ETF to be honest!

IMO its a good time to invest in PM's, 10 years on from 2018 means we are due a recession which should at very least be mildly positive for gold/silver.  Additionally if the PM prices decrease by too much from these levels then junior miners will start going bust.  Personal preference for how much risk/reward you are willing to tolerate.

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

That's what I find most worrying about RM...and after costs they are more expensive than BV (I assume you have their Signature products).

I do.   And I suppose it depends on your view of the government.  I know I'm paying a premium, and sort of have this, (perhaps rose tinted), view that Royal Mint won't be going out of business, or skipping off with my cash.  I even imagine I'm underwritten by the taxpayer to an extent.
Of course, on the other side, there's always a more negative view of government, and if you think there's a higher chance of them taking your metal, or taxing it, or otherwise appropriating it, then the higher fees start to look a lot less attractive.  I guess I've made my bet on the former.

 

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UnconventionalWisdom
8 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I do.   And I suppose it depends on your view of the government.  I know I'm paying a premium, and sort of have this, (perhaps rose tinted), view that Royal Mint won't be going out of business, or skipping off with my cash.  I even imagine I'm underwritten by the taxpayer to an extent.
Of course, on the other side, there's always a more negative view of government, and if you think there's a higher chance of them taking your metal, or taxing it, or otherwise appropriating it, then the higher fees start to look a lot less attractive.  I guess I've made my bet on the former.

 

Bullion vault is good for this reason, you can keep it in a foreign vault and hopefully mitigate somewhat against confiscation. 

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16 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

What are folks' thoughts on Bullionvault and the likes? 

I just opened an account with them. :) validated my acct but yet to move funds into it. 

I've never bought any metals before so it'll be a learning curve for me. 

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On 26/12/2018 at 17:25, Barnsey said:

By far the best pressie I got was the following book:

https://wordery.com/the-end-of-indexing-niels-jensen-9780857195494

Have mentioned him before on here but would highly recommend picking this up to give you some more food for thought on the end of the debt supercycle, very much ties in with what we've discussed on here, 10/10 

sorry to bump an old post but i just finished this book very interesting and certainly made me think about alot well worth a read

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19 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Luckily you can buy 8 avocados for 2.5 quid at Aldi ;).

I'm interested that there have been a lot of new posters on this thread recently (at least it seems so to me). Are people looking around for answers as they feel "something is coming" perhaps?

This April for me is when I stop paying into my Vanguard ISA, consolidate the gains, and deploy into miners and other deflation stocks we've talked about in a separate S&S ISA.

The way I see it - I have nothing to lose. I can't afford a house as it is, which is the only other thing I might want to spend a huge chunk of money on, and the advice which I've picked up on this thread over the last couple of years has played into the way I've always felt about the modern economy - unproductive things get rewarded, whereas fundamental businesses and sectors we need to keep the country running are undervalued.

Fundamentally, if Facebook and 99% of the other consumer tech companies shut down tomorrow, it wouldn't make a huge difference to the world. However if power plants, trains and telecommunications networks went down, chaos would follow. I know which side I'd want my money in if the shtf.

The PM side is more is a gamble in my opinion, but it does look historically undervalued. My worry with it is whether people of the generations that came after the gold standard was abandoned will still see it as something with an intrinsic monetary value?

I have recently joined because although I am mainly a passive investor, I do want to take full advantage of the coming reflation cycle. So I have begun rebalancing my portfolio, but really want to take advantage of reflation stocks/etf opportunities after any market crash later this year, and also the silver/gold dip we might - hopefully - get within the next 9-18 months.

As for whether 'something is coming' - yes, I believe something is, lets hope its an improvement on what we currently have - but using your Farcebook/Twatter reference I think it will certainly be an improvement from the world we currently inhabit of 'terminological inexactitudes' as Chruchill once remarked.     

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On ‎02‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 13:24, Barnsey said:

Without wanting to get too caught up on Brexit, worth knowing that if we want more than a 2 month extension, we need to elect new MEPs. 

Barnsey, rumour is EU will only allow us a 19-month extension in order that new referendums/general elections can further disrupt the whole Brexit project.  

btw, on a separate topic any chance of releasing your latest summary-thoughts on how the cycle is unfolding, you have done several of these in the past and found very them very usefull... absolutely not seeking advice but all the same far more credible than any of Mark Carney's so called 'forward guidance'?...not a high bar I know!

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50 minutes ago, Errol said:

F88k the EU. We don't want an extension.

I totally agree. We crash out we may see some problems unless they implement the 2 year free trade agreement through the WTO terms that has been outlined (and then buried very quickly by  remainers) it’s section ‘24 I think they call it.. 

But if we crashed out just on WTO my feeling is the end of the EU in 12 months.. They are in so much trouble.. 

Germany is a manufacturing economy and everyone is skint and up to their eyeballs in debt.. Germany is also one of the only bright lights in a failing Euro economy.. If they go into recession with the economic Armageddon coming for Italy and unrest in France and Greece still in its 100 years of debt repayments..  I can’t see how they can hold it all together.. 

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3 hours ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, rumour is EU will only allow us a 19-month extension in order that new referendums/general elections can further disrupt the whole Brexit project.  

btw, on a separate topic any chance of releasing your latest summary-thoughts on how the cycle is unfolding, you have done several of these in the past and found very them very usefull... absolutely not seeking advice but all the same far more credible than any of Mark Carney's so called 'forward guidance'?...not a high bar I know!

Apologies for not contributing much lately, not making any criticisms whatsoever but the thread has focused greatly on gold stocks of late, not something I dare dabble in until we enter a clear uptrend and I don't think we're there yet as see it's liquidity as key in the deflationary bust as folks find their ETFs enter a coordinated algo driven death spiral.

As for where I think we are right now (ALWAYS focused on U.S.), well we've clearly seen the melt up in US stocks take place (and is as of today creaking), almost unprecedented in it's pace of recovery. We're just 3 months away now from seeing the longest growth cycle in recorded history. Recession probability for 2019 now stands at 80% (Ned Davis at 96%). Strangely, despite the incredible dovishness from the Fed which largely served to spur the rally, we're now hearing commentary suggesting we may NOT have seen the last Fed hike, well done @spygirl 🏆 for predicting this.  What's crucial to think about is that unemployment turned upwards in Sept, so must pay close attention going forward. DXY likely to strengthen given relative strength of U.S. vs rest of the world, acting as temporary safe haven status, but this could/will turn on a dime once CLOs explode. Narrative already priming a swift return to QE.

So if things snap prior then it's a severe 180, otherwise 1 more hike quite possible, TLT has pulled back from 121 to 119. Pay little attention to the trade war progress as has very little to do with global synchronised downturn now underway, despite the rhetoric. In the UK, manufacturing PMI was positive at 52.0, but don't be misled by this apparent strength vs EU manufacturing PMI in contraction as this is due to historically/RIDICULOUSLY high stockpiling in UK. £ little too optimistic at moment, don't think there's much headroom unless May's vote goes through next week, anything else and I think we're heading back down.

I could go on for hours, but to summarise, we are seriously f*****g close now, so position defensively (I'm a coward so all in premium bonds, waiting patiently) :Old:

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3 hours ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, rumour is EU will only allow us a 19-month extension in order that new referendums/general elections can further disrupt the whole Brexit project.  

btw, on a separate topic any chance of releasing your latest summary-thoughts on how the cycle is unfolding, you have done several of these in the past and found very them very usefull... absolutely not seeking advice but all the same far more credible than any of Mark Carney's so called 'forward guidance'?...not a high bar I know!

Whatever the EU thought it had, it doesnt.

Europes economy, what little growth it has, is all centred on Germany. Sure tgeres bits of utaly and nland and odd bit of france but, outside of that, its shit.

Germany has had a fantastic 15 years - Euro being relatively wesk to DM, Hartz reform giving massive boost and China buying machine tools n cars.

Now chinese demand is weaking. Germany thinks its ip has been stolen - it has.

Germany is really shitting itself of Trump putting european level tarrifs on eu i.e german goods.

The Euro will not fall agsindt tge dollar - germany is too shit scared of angering us trade hawks. So, the euro will rise against dollar, even if the ecb has to raise rstes, no matter how fucked tge rest of europe is.

Demand in rest of europe is shit - resukt of german i inspired cuts  etc.

Germany really needs uk trade to offset turbulence. German centrql banks and trade body lobbies will be screaming at ecb and eurocrats.

The uk compromise will come via micron, as a pretend fig leaf.

Carneys a useless fuck. Canada does not want him. GS will be in jail soon. Maybe hell be parachuted back to GS as it board gets jailed for 1Mdb.

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14 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I've mentioned him before but Ray Dalio's books have helped me understand what's discussed here. Here's a good intro to debt cycles and the economy. 

 

Never realized why the US stood on the sidelines doing nothing in WW2 for so long, this video explains it. Whilst selling products to the UK (via credit) they were reducing their debt burden from The Depression, and moving into a reflationary phase. At this point they could then become involved, thus saving `face` whilst saving their economy...very clever!

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StrugglingMillennial

Ive managed to squirrel away some silver for the rainy day that should soon be upon us but does anyone know of any solid silver miners that would be a good buy when things wobble?

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sancho panza
On 03/03/2019 at 17:37, Cattle Prod said:

Its likeky the current reservoirs are being damaged (you open tge taps if you're desperate which sucks in more water), and wont get back to previous levels. Venezuela as a whole could possibly get back to previous levels with massive outside investment. But its NOT a Saudi Arabia, despite the numbers you see quoted, most of the oil is heavy and unproducible. Its a very mature industry, so it would be something like the north sea: massive investment -> small uptick to arrest decline -> resumption of long slow structural decline.

The only other country (now that Iraq has 'fulfilled it's potential') with significant upside is Iran. Which is why, of course, it's getting so much 'attention'.

I've heard this before-prpob most likely from you but also from my Dad who nused tomwork for a big US multinational-it's something that gets lost when people jsut read the barrel count.

On 03/03/2019 at 18:30, Democorruptcy said:

Regional program and results so far https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Italian_regional_elections

In the good old days we would have bond yields spiking.

Apologies DM,I posted but forgot a link.

It;s these regionals that are key.Showing a huge shoift right.They've smashed- and I mean smashed- the incumbent centre left.The margins are moving In Italian society and by imoplication for the EU too.

I know you're a fellow specualtor but a year or two back before my effective Betfair 'Premium' ban-I traded the Italian referendum when the centre left got smashed by five star.I think five star are fading now,the only play to economic security concersn and rather neglect border security/cultural security issues that the Lega cover.Hence, it hink the lega will continue to grow.Five star will fade with the centre left.

 


Very interesting times.

13 hours ago, Majorpain said:

An awful lot of PM miners are struggling to stay profitable at current prices, HOC/FRES/CEY all had terrible results with prices where there are.  Im starting to think that there are not too many more people to be shook out of the sector.

Then there is mining higher grade areas for short term gain long term pain, cutting back on exploration, closing mines, AISC not being all in and the financial results showing a lot less profit than there should be as a result etc....

Its all shaping up to be one hell of a ride, if there is significant manipulation in PM's to cap the price its irrelevant in the long run, you need to make profit to mine the stuff and if the world cant mine enough you end up with what's happening with palladium.

MP I think you're line of thinking is spot on.Some will mpanies and some will rise.Hence the need to srpead your bets.

 

If a few go under the rpice will startrising and once it rises the momos will come in.

13 hours ago, Festival said:

Apologies I've not been very active here for a while but very much appreciate the blog, how its run and the quality of opinions and insight here.

A quick question for those who understand markets better than me. I've noticed recently with a number of shares i own a trend where the price appreciates over a month or so prior to results then falls significantly on the day of results having fallen a little the day before results. I've noted this recently for example for CNA, FRES and IGG. I am holding LGEN which announces on Wednesday and am considering selling today/tomorrow and then buying back after results have been announced when the share hits technical support. I appreciate this may be the market we are in with profits falling short of expectations or is it an acknowledged trend of capital riding the share price in the build up to results and then selling/shorting around results day? Appreciate any insight anyone can offer.

 

 

'Buy the rumour sell the news.' or 'Pump and dump' as per Kibuc recent post

 

 

9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

sorry to bump an old post but i just finished this book very interesting and certainly made me think about alot well worth a read

Interesting precy

'

Product Description

Index-tracking is the flavour of the day - it accounts for around one-third of the total US mutual fund market, and is still growing rapidly. Indexing appears to be unstoppable.But, in The End of Indexing, investment veteran Niels Jensen presents a different vision. In a forthright and compelling examination of the investment landscape, Jensen argues that the economic environment we are entering will be unsuited to index-tracking strategies.Jensen identifies six structural mega-trends that are set to disrupt investors around the globe:1. End of the debt super-cycle2. Retirement of the baby boomers3. Declining spending power of the middle classes4. Rise of the East5. Death of fossil fuels6. Mean reversion of wealth-to-GDPIn conjunction, these six themes have the potential to create conditions resembling a perfect storm that will result in low economic growth for decades to come. Investment techniques and methodologies - including passive investing strategies - that have worked so well in the bull market of the last 35 years will no longer deliver acceptable results.As a new investment approach is called for, The End of Indexing provides investors with a guide to the challenging environment ahead and a warning about the future decline of index-tracking.

The End of Indexing Hardback edition by Niels Jensen'

2 hours ago, macca said:

I totally agree. We crash out we may see some problems unless they implement the 2 year free trade agreement through the WTO terms that has been outlined (and then buried very quickly by  remainers) it’s section ‘24 I think they call it.. 

But if we crashed out just on WTO my feeling is the end of the EU in 12 months.. They are in so much trouble.. 

Germany is a manufacturing economy and everyone is skint and up to their eyeballs in debt.. Germany is also one of the only bright lights in a failing Euro economy.. If they go into recession with the economic Armageddon coming for Italy and unrest in France and Greece still in its 100 years of debt repayments..  I can’t see how they can hold it all together.. 

HArd to argue with that logic.{Particualrly ref Italy who are to big too bail)

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Apologies for not contributing much lately, not making any criticisms whatsoever but the thread has focused greatly on gold stocks of late, not something I dare dabble in until we enter a clear uptrend and I don't think we're there yet as see it's liquidity as key in the deflationary bust as folks find their ETFs enter a coordinated algo driven death spiral.

As for where I think we are right now (ALWAYS focused on U.S.), well we've clearly seen the melt up in US stocks take place (and is as of today creaking), almost unprecedented in it's pace of recovery. We're just 3 months away now from seeing the longest growth cycle in recorded history. Recession probability for 2019 now stands at 80% (Ned Davis at 96%). Strangely, despite the incredible dovishness from the Fed which largely served to spur the rally, we're now hearing commentary suggesting we may NOT have seen the last Fed hike, well done @spygirl 🏆 for predicting this.  What's crucial to think about is that unemployment turned upwards in Sept, so must pay close attention going forward. DXY likely to strengthen given relative strength of U.S. vs rest of the world, acting as temporary safe haven status, but this could/will turn on a dime once CLOs explode. Narrative already priming a swift return to QE.

So if things snap prior then it's a severe 180, otherwise 1 more hike quite possible, TLT has pulled back from 121 to 119. Pay little attention to the trade war progress as has very little to do with global synchronised downturn now underway, despite the rhetoric. In the UK, manufacturing PMI was positive at 52.0, but don't be misled by this apparent strength vs EU manufacturing PMI in contraction as this is due to historically/RIDICULOUSLY high stockpiling in UK. £ little too optimistic at moment, don't think there's much headroom unless May's vote goes through next week, anything else and I think we're heading back down.

I could go on for hours, but to summarise, we are seriously f*****g close now, so position defensively (I'm a coward so all in premium bonds, waiting patiently) :Old:

I'm currently short a couple of choice US stocks but looking to shrot their indices as per your view.2019/20 will see a large dopwntrun in stocks i suspect but I'm not sure which year.Previoous recessions hav played out with diffferent kinks in the curves.I've been on nights so aside from scannign the odd post on here,have read,researched little over the weekend.Looking forward to soem time this week to reassess where we are.

 

Like you Im looking for those first proper chinks in the Chrsitmas rally we were discussing early Dec time-ok it turned out to eb a New Year rally-but still be long and strong and taken out a couple of my ladders in my Boeing shorts.

Like you were; holding the bulk with NS&I ,not prepared to gamble on metor bank coming out the other side of the wave lol

 

Ref QE,I'm not sure it'll come as before,they may try another more Keynesian route but the last ten years of monetary policy is now accepted as poor value politically,.

2 hours ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

Whatever the EU thought it had, it doesnt.

Europes economy, what little growth it has, is all centred on Germany. Sure tgeres bits of utaly and nland and odd bit of france but, outside of that, its shit.

Germany has had a fantastic 15 years - Euro being relatively wesk to DM, Hartz reform giving massive boost and China buying machine tools n cars.

Now chinese demand is weaking. Germany thinks its ip has been stolen - it has.

Germany is really shitting itself of Trump putting european level tarrifs on eu i.e german goods.

The Euro will not fall agsindt tge dollar - germany is too shit scared of angering us trade hawks. So, the euro will rise against dollar, even if the ecb has to raise rstes, no matter how fucked tge rest of europe is.

Demand in rest of europe is shit - resukt of german i inspired cuts  etc.

Germany really needs uk trade to offset turbulence. German centrql banks and trade body lobbies will be screaming at ecb and eurocrats.

The uk compromise will come via micron, as a pretend fig leaf.

Carneys a useless fuck. Canada does not want him. GS will be in jail soon. Maybe hell be parachuted back to GS as it board gets jailed for 1Mdb.

I would wet myself laughing if Trump did start an EU trade war, it would be the end.I think the Krauts are poop creek sans paddle,

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Apologies for not contributing much lately, not making any criticisms whatsoever but the thread has focused greatly on gold stocks of late, not something I dare dabble in until we enter a clear uptrend and I don't think we're there yet as see it's liquidity as key in the deflationary bust as folks find their ETFs enter a coordinated algo driven death spiral.

As for where I think we are right now (ALWAYS focused on U.S.), well we've clearly seen the melt up in US stocks take place (and is as of today creaking), almost unprecedented in it's pace of recovery. We're just 3 months away now from seeing the longest growth cycle in recorded history. Recession probability for 2019 now stands at 80% (Ned Davis at 96%). Strangely, despite the incredible dovishness from the Fed which largely served to spur the rally, we're now hearing commentary suggesting we may NOT have seen the last Fed hike, well done @spygirl 🏆 for predicting this.  What's crucial to think about is that unemployment turned upwards in Sept, so must pay close attention going forward. DXY likely to strengthen given relative strength of U.S. vs rest of the world, acting as temporary safe haven status, but this could/will turn on a dime once CLOs explode. Narrative already priming a swift return to QE.

So if things snap prior then it's a severe 180, otherwise 1 more hike quite possible, TLT has pulled back from 121 to 119. Pay little attention to the trade war progress as has very little to do with global synchronised downturn now underway, despite the rhetoric. In the UK, manufacturing PMI was positive at 52.0, but don't be misled by this apparent strength vs EU manufacturing PMI in contraction as this is due to historically/RIDICULOUSLY high stockpiling in UK. £ little too optimistic at moment, don't think there's much headroom unless May's vote goes through next week, anything else and I think we're heading back down.

I could go on for hours, but to summarise, we are seriously f*****g close now, so position defensively (I'm a coward so all in premium bonds, waiting patiently) :Old:

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/03/us-manufacturing-growth-slowing-as-exporters-china-japan-germany-sink/

 

These PMIs are a quantified boots-on-the-ground view by panelists who see how their company are being impacted by economic developments. They can get outright gloomy in the run-up to a crisis, such as the European Debt crisis from 2010-2012, and have proven to be fairly accurate predictors of manufacturing data coming down the pike.

These PMIs are a scale for global demand and regional within the goods-based economy, giving an advance glimpse of official manufacturing data one or two months later. And for now, the US manufacturing sector is hanging on, even as manufacturers in China, Japan, and Germany are losing grip.

image.png.bb898ca84c26dca419d8bce9b59aab40.png

image.png.fbfbd5f2c6100fbb126aab36406e6535.png

image.png.5ea9723dcb1b00f1dde722f98d409a7d.png

image.png.92764fde709e5b0573e30982fd00b727.png

image.png.9a4f914906dc741f20fdfbd682cf9f1e.png

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The Eurozone will likely suffer the most going forward.They are pretty much the USSR with worse leadership.Germany has raped the whole continent with the Euro.I still think May/June is the time the US smells inflation and the Fed will have that and a slowing economy on its hands.Inflation or rates up have the same affect on the over leveraged with poor free cash flow.

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7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm currently short a couple of choice US stocks but looking to shrot their indices as per your view.2019/20 will see a large dopwntrun in stocks i suspect but I'm not sure which year.Previoous recessions hav played out with diffferent kinks in the curves.I've been on nights so aside from scannign the odd post on here,have read,researched little over the weekend.Looking forward to soem time this week to reassess where we are.

 

Like you Im looking for those first proper chinks in the Chrsitmas rally we were discussing early Dec time-ok it turned out to eb a New Year rally-but still be long and strong and taken out a couple of my ladders in my Boeing shorts.

Like you were; holding the bulk with NS&I ,not prepared to gamble on metor bank coming out the other side of the wave lol

 

Ref QE,I'm not sure it'll come as before,they may try another more Keynesian route but the last ten years of monetary policy is now accepted as poor value politically,.

I would wet myself laughing if Trump did start an EU trade war, it would be the end.I think the Krauts are poop creek sans paddle,

Europe has created a hnumber of distractions - the whole Euro debt fiasco, Brexit. The EU has spent all its effort mopping up messes its created.

And all the time, not concentrating on the two massive threats - Russia and China. Although Russia is a border security issue rather than the hue rolling fuck thats China.

 

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The Eurozone will likely suffer the most going forward.They are pretty much the USSR with worse leadership.Germany has raped the whole continent with the Euro.I still think May/June is the time the US smells inflation and the Fed will have that and a slowing economy on its hands.Inflation or rates up have the same affect on the over leveraged with poor free cash flow.

Most folks would scream STAGFLATION but I take it we're still expecting a deflationary bust and then reflationary policy? And just to clarify, are you thinking we're now looking at a slightly postponed deflationary bust toward year end?

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