Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,its exactly what we expected,though much sooner.We thought it would take 18 months to 30 months from tightening to real problems showing,so the fact the EU cant even get past 3 months shows what a basket case it is.It gets interesting though when they start to push the money direct to government instead of banks.

Since more money is being pumped, do you still think there will be a collapse in asset prices or will this serve to keep them inflated?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza

? peak Buffet

@DurhamBorn

Is this the sort of part of the disinflation cycle where branded goods makers take big hits.Certainly appears so.Was searching for an article that peaked my interest yesterday but couldn't find it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-loses-more-than-3-billion-in-single-day-on-kraft-heinz-plunge.html

 

export-uzvX7 (2).1550870166274.png

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway lost more than $4.3 billion in a single day after shares of Kraft Heinz — one of the investor's largest holdings — plunged on slew of bad news including a dividend cut and a government investigation.

Stock of the packaged food giant, whose products include Heinz Tomato Ketchup, Jell-O and Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, plunged more than 27 percent Friday to close at $34.95. And for Berkshire — which owned more than 325 million shares at the end of 2018 — the losses were steep.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

? peak Buffet

@DurhamBorn

Is this the sort of part of the disinflation cycle where branded goods makers take big hits.Certainly appears so.Was searching for an article that peaked my interest yesterday but couldn't find it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-loses-more-than-3-billion-in-single-day-on-kraft-heinz-plunge.html

 

export-uzvX7 (2).1550870166274.png

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway lost more than $4.3 billion in a single day after shares of Kraft Heinz — one of the investor's largest holdings — plunged on slew of bad news including a dividend cut and a government investigation.

Stock of the packaged food giant, whose products include Heinz Tomato Ketchup, Jell-O and Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, plunged more than 27 percent Friday to close at $34.95. And for Berkshire — which owned more than 325 million shares at the end of 2018 — the losses were steep.

 

Peak leverage PE deals ....

Or peak US branded processed food.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Non Farm payrolls were pretty horrid. Could just be an outlier but a huge miss. 

They are where we thought they would be about 6 months ago.Road map is proving correct,just timing out a bit.

This is what we have been saying as well

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47492397

Not just exports getting slaughtered as we expected,but imports as well.Our road maps pointed to the end of the consumer cycle and thats what that does to China exports,-20%.

We just need to see inflation tick up in the US in May/June to box the Fed in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Yamana Gold to develop Argentina mine with Glencore, Goldcorp

(Reuters) - Miners Yamana Gold Inc, Glencore and Goldcorp Inc said on Thursday they signed an agreement to develop and operate Yamana’s Agua Rica gold and copper mine in Argentina using infrastructure and facilities of the three companies’ existing venture in the country.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yamana-gold-argentina-deals-idUSKCN1QP04K

Yamana should be a huge winner in the next cycle.They have too much debt,but some fantastic assets.I think thats a great long term deal for them.It lowers the risk on Aqua Rica,but keeps most of the upside in place.It would likely end up a Tier 1 mine.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Non Farm payrolls were pretty horrid. Could just be an outlier but a huge miss. 

I read it differently.

Jobs growth has slowed, massively.

Hardly surprising as the US ran out of surplus employable 18 months ago.

Wages are rising - which points to running out of workers to be true.

US is also in peak boomer retirement year now.

US pension - and health benefits - are generous.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

Peak leverage PE deals ....

Or peak US branded processed food.

Or both, although PE seems very active right now.  Last cashing in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@sancho panza exactly it is.Consumers will be looking to save money and trading down just as input costs are going up.Most will still be around,just at much lower profits and share prices.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza exactly it is.Consumers will be looking to save money and trading down just as input costs are going up.Most will still be around,just at much lower profits and share prices.

My family have proven to be early adopters on many things.  We've shopped in Aldi for many years!

Co-incidentally, just been to Cotswold Camping for a fleeced hiking jacket, etc and loved the brands.  Then thought I'd look on line at Decathlon...........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Harley said:

My family have proven to be early adopters on many things.  We've shopped in Aldi for many years!

I got my son a job in their warehouse,my mate is the boss at one of their big ones.Hes got £7k+ saved in silver so far and zero student debt as no uni.xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I got my son a job in their warehouse,my mate is the boss at one of their big ones.Hes got £7k+ saved in silver so far and zero student debt as no uni.xD

Makes me feel even better shopping there!

I reckon you're doing a cracking job, as are many others despite the press.  No better gift!

Going into Tescos and Morissions, let alone the others, is quite a price shock!

Just done the Aldi weekly shop - £72 but that includes four plants (rhodos) at a good price of £7.99 each and some treats for the poorly dog.

Mind you, that £40 food cost would have been maybe £30 a year or so ago.

I used to be able to do a bag full "skint shop" for £25!

And I'm just finding yoga helps remove the ego and the need for brands!

Not spending (or spending wisely) is the easiest way to make money, as long as your head's in the right place!

I do like my tools though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agent ZigZag
23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

Sadly Im not one of them

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso

yar, me niether, mind you i made good cash on yamana last year, the only green ive got now is swreso, and thats gone down from +12% to +3%, mind my other gold plays are very small amounts, something like £150 each (ego+hmy) both are down, portfolio is messy at the moment, no real direction in it, been preoccupied elsewhere, only a small amount in the whole lot to be honest so im not surprised really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza exactly it is.Consumers will be looking to save money and trading down just as input costs are going up.Most will still be around,just at much lower profits and share prices.

As you know I'm a big fan of footfall reseach.Have to say this chimes with what I'm seeing on the ground.Both top and bottom lines are masking a sismic shift in buying habits.Talking tio Mrs P jsut now and she was saying that virtually every mum of young kids she meets has Aldi/Lidl nappies.What I'm reading into this -and my own vists to Sains/Tesco -is that younger demograhics are incresingly likely to shop at the discounters.Not everyone obviously, but whilst this isn't a major problem now,in ten years it's going to be.

 

These younger demogrpahics are getting used to buying own brand ketchups and once the line gets crossed ,it's going to take some significant margin comoression to get them back.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

I'm about 10% up overall even with my ELD being > 20% down still. Have to hold my hands up though, despite all the warnings of being whipsawed (sawn?) out.....I got it wrong on the pull back to 1285 and sold off half of my position in the hope of buying them back at better prices. I had EDR at £3.00, Yamana at $3.20ish and some Harmony at about $1.75, as well as some others. Not the greatest prices but they were in the green. Based on the pull back end of January I thought I'd try to be clever.

Rookie mistake. Or to be less polite.....I got greedy and it bit me on the arse.

Anyway, I've filled part of the gap with some Fortuna, Couer and McEwan all of which looked relatively cheap today. I've got the funds ready if the suggested pull back to circa1250 materialises. Will just have to wait and see.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Green Devil
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

My Ego is my star performer of the portfolio, about 100% now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Points taken on driverless buses. I certainly wouldnt trust a neural network, I perhaps see it as a function of hundreds of sensors. But I'm old enough to still be awed by parking sensors so maybe I'm using the wrong heuristic :-)

Don't know much about that crowd but I can tell you there is no 16bn barrels of oil under the Bahamas. You can look at the size of the trap (and they are huge folds there), stuff it full of oil, and sell the story, but its...just a story. Probably has about a 15% chance of success, so 85% likely to be a fairytale. However, a couple of points to help you exit:

1. Farm in activity is increasing generally, bigger companies are short on opportunities. I haven't looked at this one but I'll have a quick look on Monday if I remember and tell you what I think

2. There is a well going down in Cuba later this year into a similar structure (thrust fold), seemingly under the radar. They secured themselves a very nice farm in deal. It's got a much higher chance of success and if it works I'm sure the Bahamas crowd will ramp the shit of of their shares! Sell to cost at that point if you can, and leave the remainder for a free ride?!

DYODD, and with Junior oilies, don't believe a word!

CP

 

Thanks a lot! The shares have been 25p before (a decade back) and went to 7p when they entered a period of exclusive negotiations with a major last year (which came to nothing), so I figure they should go to at least 20p if they manage to do a deal. At that price I could sell up and have 75% of my shares left for a free ride, but TBH for the sake of a grand I'd still be tempted to leave it all on the table. My thinking is that if they manage to find 1bn barrels and keep $5 a barrel that ought to value the company at $5bn, which would be a near 50-bag for me, or doesn't it work like that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Damn

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

I am up today but last 2 weeks have been pretty stressful.  Learnt a painful lesson in benefits of diversification with my Fresnillo shares..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
19 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Damn

I am up today but last 2 weeks have been pretty stressful.  Learnt a painful lesson in benefits of diversification with my Fresnillo shares..

The key is not only diversification, but to average in (or ladders as DB refers to). We all know the direction things are going, and we know they’ll keep the plates spinning until they can’t.

Central banks are like drunks desperately windmilling telegraphed punches, I think there’s plenty of time to position accordingly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

The key is not only diversification, but to average in (or ladders as DB refers to). We all know the direction things are going, and we know they’ll keep the plates spinning until they can’t.

Central banks are like drunks desperately windmilling telegraphed punches, I think there’s plenty of time to position accordingly.

It's my largest PM holding and in hindsight, I should have placed an early sell order for a large chunk of it once I realised in the morning the results were poor.  Didn't want to lose £10 in selling fees )  It's really hard to judge when the markets initially over-react or under-react on bad news.  Sometimes it looks like a big drop but it bounces back, others - falls and just keeps on falling for a while.  Guess general silver weakness didn't help things.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...