Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[King Penda]

R k h are about 23p   They were one of the old falklands 4 which I think is 5 now they all shared an oil rig to reduce costs I chose them on aim has they had the best logo I sold mine for about 150 each on news of a strike I bet it was 8 years ago the charts only go back 5 years yes it’s production cost worry’s that saw there slow decline another one I had was Gkp wish I had kept those they hit 40 quid each I heard in 2012 sure I paid about 2 quid each ffs 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Festool or aldi diy range?

Crikey, not that much of a fan!  Makita for me except I admit to using Ryobi too given the range,  value for money, and no sweat if pinched.  Big reductions in Homebase ATM.  Festool?  In my dreams!

[Harley]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf/norway-fund-to-sell-exploration-production-firms-keep-integrated-energy-stocks-idUSKCN1QP14L

Makes sense.  Decided in the end to keep the majors as they could shift to renewables.  What do they know?  Shame I didn't snap up more majors intraday.

[Castlevania]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

As you know I'm a big fan of footfall reseach.Have to say this chimes with what I'm seeing on the ground.Both top and bottom lines are masking a sismic shift in buying habits.Talking tio Mrs P jsut now and she was saying that virtually every mum of young kids she meets has Aldi/Lidl nappies.What I'm reading into this -and my own vists to Sains/Tesco -is that younger demograhics are incresingly likely to shop at the discounters.Not everyone obviously, but whilst this isn't a major problem now,in ten years it's going to be.

 

These younger demogrpahics are getting used to buying own brand ketchups and once the line gets crossed ,it's going to take some significant margin comoression to get them back.

 

Aldi own brand nappies are the best selling nappies in the U.K. 

I buy own brand ketchup. Heinz for example have been over reliant on an older demographic who grew up with the product who perceive it as being superior. It doesn’t help that since the Brazilian cost cutters took over they’ve slashed the quality of the ingredients.

[Castlevania]

8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Damn

I am up today but last 2 weeks have been pretty stressful.  Learnt a painful lesson in benefits of diversification with my Fresnillo shares..

Same here. I’ve learnt that with the PM miners diversifying is a good strategy. I don’t like that approach - I prefer to buy large stakes in a few carefully selected companies, but here it’s worth making an exception

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, sam1994 said:

Currently my exports are going crazy. Selling more to Netherlands and Germany than anywhere else. Scandinavian countries also doing well (Norway, Denmark, Sweden). Handling VAT in all of these regions is bollocks. 

I have noticed our China suppliers are pressuring us to make deals in March. Managed to shave off 8% off current order price without even increasing any commitment in volume, which was surprising. Interested in Tuesday and hoping GBP will rise so I can get a good deal on USD and bring forward some orders.

So 6th April is coming up, but hoping not to miss things in between then. Not sure whether to crystallise my Vanguard LS100 ACC (up in ISA and LISA) down in SIPP but only by 5% so tax saving has offset that

One for @DurhamBorn re miners. Looks like a lot of miners have Canadian ties. I saw a lot of criticism in the media about the sustainability of these mines and damage they are causing in Africa. Trudeau seems to be in a lot of shit at the moment. While this is an old news article, I wonder if this may come up again soon? https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/yves-engler/canada-just-cant-quit-its-most-abusive-mining-company_a_23060899/. Could politics stifle the rise of gold?

S

I wouldn’t read anything into that “article”. They clearly have it in for the Canadian government and have taken everything the Tanzanian government have accused Acacia of doing as fact. 

Barrick have since come to an agreement with the Tanzanian government to sort out the issues.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

39 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Aldi own brand nappies are the best selling nappies in the U.K. 

I buy own brand ketchup. Heinz for example have been over reliant on an older demographic who grew up with the product who perceive it as being superior. It doesn’t help that since the Brazilian cost cutters took over they’ve slashed the quality of the ingredients.

 

Nah...to EXPENSIVE for me,  here's my CHEAPO  HEALTHY home-made ketchup...

Takes 3 minutes to make...Mix all the ingredients in a bowl.

BTW, all the ingredients are really easy to get. Try the ketchup and adjust if you want.

Once you get it right ya'll NEVER buy a store ketchup again...always keep it in the fridge.

Ingredients:

• 1 cup tomato paste (270 g)
• 4 tbsp maple syrup
• 2 tbsp apple cider vinegar
• 1 tsp onion powder
• 1 tsp oregano
• Sea salt to taste (optional)

 

 

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Nah...to EXPENSIVE for me,  here's my CHEAPO  HEALTHY home-made ketchup...

Takes 3 minutes to make...Mix all the ingredients in a bowl.

BTW, all the ingredients are really easy to get. Try the ketchup and adjust if you want.

Once you get it right ya'll NEVER buy a store ketchup again...always keep it in the fridge.

Ingredients:

• 1 cup tomato paste (270 g)
• 4 tbsp maple syrup
• 2 tbsp apple cider vinegar
• 1 tsp onion powder
• 1 tsp oregano
• Sea salt to taste (optional)

 

 

Tomato paste? I’m disappointed in you. I reckon you could make your own and save even more money!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Tomato paste? I’m disappointed in you. I reckon you could make your own and save even more money!

Yeah really depressing when i can't pick-up a bag of REDUCED tomatoes at Tescos AND splash out on Tomato paste!

[Bricks & Mortar]

26 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 CHEAPO  HEALTHY home-made ketchup...

• 1 cup tomato paste (270 g)
• 4 tbsp maple syrup
• 2 tbsp apple cider vinegar
• 1 tsp onion powder
• 1 tsp oregano
• Sea salt to taste (optional)

I fear the ingredient list would cost considerably more than Aldi's tomato ketchup, on a ml-for-ml basis. 
Is it a stronger taste?  Allowing a smaller portion to achieve the same 'zing'?
Have you managed to find reduced maple syrup and other ingredients?
I'm resolved to try it anyway - soon as I can get maple syrup.   Made rhubarb ketchup last year with some 'found' rhubarb.  That was a stovetop boiling vinegar affair and well worth my time .  Recipe would have been a combination of 2 or 3 that can be found via google.
 

[Agent ZigZag]

At present I find there is a very fine line between buying ingredients and home made produce or buying the final product at the shops unless you get a heavy discount. One trend worth while watching though

[Rave]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

No, unfortunately. If they get a farm in they'll be left with say 20%. 1bn barrels stooip will be reckoned at 25-30% recoverable, which is valued at c. $1 a bbl for exploration (depending on fiscal terms. Prob more generous). It wont go up till its appraised and tested, and then only to 2 or 3. So you're looking at $50-$60m to the market cap (if not already priced in). Of course people will go crazy, and exceed this, and itll come back down. If you want to play thst game its just gambling on other peoples stupidity. 

Edit:

See rockhopper for reference. 100m market cap with producting assets and booked reserves (after appraisal) on sea lion, a high quality 200-500mbbl recoverable field. I dont know what their share is, but the market clearly doesnt believe it can be produced. 

OK thanks a lot for the reality check, I guess I'll stop daydreaming about all the easy money coming my way if it almost certainly isn't. Back to checking the bitcoin price every couple of hours and buying lottery tickets  . Meanwhile if the chap with the link to the £200 a day driving job happens to read this, then it looks like I'm available...

The chairman (and possibly some of the other directors) of BPC have a load of stock options exercisable at 18p, so they clearly think there's a good chance they'll exceed that, at least.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

@Bricks & Mortar

53 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I fear the ingredient list would cost considerably more than Aldi's tomato ketchup, on a ml-for-ml basis. 
Is it a stronger taste?  Allowing a smaller portion to achieve the same 'zing'?
Have you managed to find reduced maple syrup and other ingredients?
I'm resolved to try it anyway - soon as I can get maple syrup.   Made rhubarb ketchup last year with some 'found' rhubarb.  That was a stovetop boiling vinegar affair and well worth my time .  Recipe would have been a combination of 2 or 3 that can be found via google.
 

Yeah of course i get all my ingredients REDUCED!!!

however i've dropped the maple syrup  (as run out of the reduced bottle! ) and replaced it with Thai coconut palm sugar. i get it as I'm out here nearly every year..

its MEGA CHEAP 45p a bag!

I'm out here now, and where I'm staying is near a Tesco Express...for some odd reason i found out what time they do the REDUCTIONS!

Here's a sample of yesterdays bargains...no doubt the foxy Thai girl till cashier looks forward to seeing me every day   !!!

 

[Bear Hug]

18 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@Bricks & Mortar

Yeah of course i get all my ingredients REDUCED!!!

however i've dropped the maple syrup  (as run out of the reduced bottle! ) and replaced it with Thai coconut palm sugar. i get it as I'm out here nearly every year..

its MEGA CHEAP 45p a bag!

 

I'm out here now, and where I'm staying is near a Tesco Express...for some odd reason i found out what time they do the REDUCTIONS!

Here's a sample of yesterdays bargains...no doubt the foxy Thai girl till cashier looks forward to seeing me every day   !!!

Are you pricing the costs of flights in that?  I went to both Tesco and Ikea in Phuket.  Tesco was the only shop with yellow (and some orange) stickers

[Bear Hug]

On 17/11/2018 at 16:35, DurhamBorn said:

Royal Mail for me,ladder set from here to 2.50p.Very happy if i got to the 2.50p price.I noticed they put prices up 9% to lots of business customers.Key to them is letters will make parcels profitable where other delivery companies dont have that luxury.Centrica and SSE will be down on political worries,the more Brexit trouble the more likely a Labour government etc.Centrica im full,SSE id buy another tranche at £10.30 though they are and would remain a small holding as i prefer Centrica.Im also watching the gambling sector,William Hill and Playtech.Not reflation stocks of course,but a sector that will pick up inflation sloshing around.Iv nibbled some of both and happy to increase going forward.

 

I know this is from a while back but, are you still buying Royal Mail?  It's getting pretty close to that 2.50 target.  It's that (AJ Bell's regular investment) time of the month for me, so looking for some cheap FTSE350 ideas (already have some BT, Vod, CNA, Fres).  

[DurhamBorn]

12 hours ago, 0x80 said:

I'm about 10% up overall even with my ELD being > 20% down still. Have to hold my hands up though, despite all the warnings of being whipsawed (sawn?) out.....I got it wrong on the pull back to 1285 and sold off half of my position in the hope of buying them back at better prices. I had EDR at £3.00, Yamana at $3.20ish and some Harmony at about $1.75, as well as some others. Not the greatest prices but they were in the green. Based on the pull back end of January I thought I'd try to be clever.

Rookie mistake. Or to be less polite.....I got greedy and it bit me on the arse.

Anyway, I've filled part of the gap with some Fortuna, Couer and McEwan all of which looked relatively cheap today. I've got the funds ready if the suggested pull back to circa1250 materialises. Will just have to wait and see.

 

I use McEwan as a tracking stock in the sector.We use them as they tend to lead and lag the complex.Fortuna is the only silver miner that hasnt really shot up.If there is a big sell off id add McEwan to my portfolio.Im really pleased with Endeavour Silver.They were in the top two of my rubber band stocks and i got my last ladder at the bottom.The complex is very difficult and it does throw you all over.I tend to use the GDXJ as the trigger point for buys and sell,not the individual stocks.

 

6 hours ago, sam1994 said:

Currently my exports are going crazy. Selling more to Netherlands and Germany than anywhere else. Scandinavian countries also doing well (Norway, Denmark, Sweden). Handling VAT in all of these regions is bollocks. 

I have noticed our China suppliers are pressuring us to make deals in March. Managed to shave off 8% off current order price without even increasing any commitment in volume, which was surprising. Interested in Tuesday and hoping GBP will rise so I can get a good deal on USD and bring forward some orders.

So 6th April is coming up, but hoping not to miss things in between then. Not sure whether to crystallise my Vanguard LS100 ACC (up in ISA and LISA) down in SIPP but only by 5% so tax saving has offset that

One for @DurhamBorn re miners. Looks like a lot of miners have Canadian ties. I saw a lot of criticism in the media about the sustainability of these mines and damage they are causing in Africa. Trudeau seems to be in a lot of shit at the moment. While this is an old news article, I wonder if this may come up again soon? https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/yves-engler/canada-just-cant-quit-its-most-abusive-mining-company_a_23060899/. Could politics stifle the rise of gold?

S

No mines are sustainable long term and there will always be political pressure,thats why its best to own a portfolio of miners.I try to ignore the political side to things as its very hard to judge affects.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

I know this is from a while back but, are you still buying Royal Mail?  It's getting pretty close to that 2.50 target.  It's that (AJ Bell's regular investment) time of the month for me, so looking for some cheap FTSE350 ideas (already have some BT, Vod, CNA, Fres).  

Im buying around 15 companies in ladders at the moment and Royal Mail is one of them.Im down on them as a portfolio after divis by around 6% (some like BAT are up 23%,Go Ahead +37%,some like Centrica down 24%).Iv added the likes of Standard Life Aberdeen to my ladders lately as well.Id be very happy if they turned as a portfolio at around 15% down.Iv also added small ladders into a few gambling stocks,Playtech and William Hill.These will be smaller holdings than others,but i like the sector in a reflation,though tax is a big risk.Iv also added Babcock Engineering and BAE to my ladders.Babcock just below the present price and BAE 7% below it.

I will slowly skim profits from my PM miners and fund lower ladder buys going foward.

My aim is to get roughly 72% into my ladder stocks,and 23% into PM miners (mostly silver) and some physical PMs.

BAT wasnt a reflation stock,but i sold a huge holding above £50 id had for decades,and the drop to £24 was a great chance to add back an old friend.They are up 20%+,but i wont be selling them.Il keep them for good now probably (i only bought back around 20% of what i sold at £50+)

Il also start to slowly buy things like the Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 fund in any big sell off.

[Agent ZigZag]

Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 - I never really thought about or knew which sector was best for agriculture investing. Inflation and weather cycles I consider will play an important role in this sector.

Agriculture related products I hold are The Mosaic Company. Yara and Nutrien. So far to date I am down and have remained generally flat. Whilst I only hold a small position any whiff of inflation I will add

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Rave said:

OK thanks a lot for the reality check, I guess I'll stop daydreaming about all the easy money coming my way if it almost certainly isn't. Back to checking the bitcoin price every couple of hours and buying lottery tickets  . Meanwhile if the chap with the link to the £200 a day driving job happens to read this, then it looks like I'm available...

The chairman (and possibly some of the other directors) of BPC have a load of stock options exercisable at 18p, so they clearly think there's a good chance they'll exceed that, at least.

the junior oilers on aim was where i started out and i managed to acumilate 12.5k and clear 12k of debt in just over 18/20 months,id invest 300 a month typicaly.in fact my first 2 months were wasted has i bought certificated shares i didnt know any better and both were bought around the 30p mark and id always go for 1000 of them.i still hold the first 2 which were tw. at 32p and rbs (no laughing at the back regarding rbs since diluted) think they were 34p.

big duds included pci part of the celtic tiger,i got very lucky with the first rockhopper which gave me a much larger pot to play with.matd the mongolian oiler was another,i sold around 45/50p .bowleven and quite a few other.sometimes id bung 2k in once my pot was bigger and flee with any profit above 100-200 quid.often achived in well under a month .sometimes very easy to achieve has antisipation pre spud built.

i even managed to buy one firm has it released an rns it had hit oil that was the easiest 400 quid profit id ever made,i bought them and sold about 3 minnutes later.

id be in the comunity has a carer litteraly with my lap top and dongle watch the aim market all day,i did lose a lot on some but generaly id go for 10% on anything and not get greedy.i even bought a brick firm shares has the housebuilders shares went up .one that i held was an enginering firm either tws or tsw id love to know where it vanished to im sure they built train wheels or similar.

once i got my deposit for my house i sold everything i figured id been very lucky and had a good run,my mother wanted me to carry on and try and buy one out right but i realised much of it was pure luck so i cut and ran,i surpose i was what you would call a cross between a swing trader is there such a thing has a momentum trader ? i was never a real invester never used leverage and never had my eggs in one basket.i was there like a pirate just happy to take my 1-200 quid has i was able to invest larger amounts ie 1k in a share.good fun very risky but it kept my busy all day and a lot of the clients i visited would love watching my adventures has id sit in some of there houses drinking coffee with my laptop after my visit has ended (its bloody cold up the staffs moorlands in winter )they got company for free and i got somewhere warm to stay in between visits.

[Lightscribe]

Thanks for reminding me about BAE DB. I sold all mine in 2017 and hadn’t thought to look since so didn’t know the current price. I shall certainly be adding it to the allocation this month.

Similar to you I’ve been averaging in on RMG and WMH at these current prices, but also increasing my VOD and Centrica as they are my only negative holdings at the moment (not taking dividends into consideration)

There’s a lot of value appearing but unfortunately not enough spare money for me to invest.

[Bear Hug]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im buying around 15 companies in ladders at the moment and Royal Mail is one of them.Im down on them as a portfolio after divis by around 6% (some like BAT are up 23%,Go Ahead +37%,some like Centrica down 24%).Iv added the likes of Standard Life Aberdeen to my ladders lately as well.Id be very happy if they turned as a portfolio at around 15% down.Iv also added small ladders into a few gambling stocks,Playtech and William Hill.These will be smaller holdings than others,but i like the sector in a reflation,though tax is a big risk.Iv also added Babcock Engineering and BAE to my ladders.Babcock just below the present price and BAE 7% below it.

I will slowly skim profits from my PM miners and fund lower ladder buys going foward.

My aim is to get roughly 72% into my ladder stocks,and 23% into PM miners (mostly silver) and some physical PMs.

BAT wasnt a reflation stock,but i sold a huge holding above £50 id had for decades,and the drop to £24 was a great chance to add back an old friend.They are up 20%+,but i wont be selling them.Il keep them for good now probably (i only bought back around 20% of what i sold at £50+)

Il also start to slowly buy things like the Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 fund in any big sell off.

Many thanks, this is exactly the kind of ideas I was hoping for. 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my silver miners approached +50% today.Interesting to see if the dip from $1350+ to $1285ish in gold was it or if $1250 comes into play.Hopefully everyone who bought into the sector on here is up now.

I bought in late (January this year, as i'm newbie and playing catchup) and so overall i'm unfortunately 5% down on my portfolio of silver/gold miners. I've been slowly (too slowly perhaps!) rebalancing my portfolio - but which in my case does involve first doing research/reading first before acting. In addition to my company pension, which I have mentioned here in regards to possible transfer-out opportunity, I also have approx. 100k in a money-purchase type pension and approx. 100k in isa's. So far, i've sold out of US/Europe, but still hold world equity funds and asia equity funds. I have bought some reflation stocks, gold/silver etf's, gold/silver miners, holding rest in cash. 

DurhamBorn, do you still see Gold down to $1250, then up to $1500 by year end, then down to $800-1000, before trending up long term? 

[JMD]

I should mention that the reason I quote my isa/pension figures above is to attempt to show - that although I do definitely wish  to take full advantage of the coming reflation cycle - that also for me, because of the stated large amounts involved - I am probably at risk of being too conservative and too deliberative in my decisions.... so any advise would be very welcome.

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 - I never really thought about or knew which sector was best for agriculture investing. Inflation and weather cycles I consider will play an important role in this sector.

Agriculture related products I hold are The Mosaic Company. Yara and Nutrien. So far to date I am down and have remained generally flat. Whilst I only hold a small position any whiff of inflation I will add

ETF SOIL is a decent proxy as I udnerstand it.We hold 1 and 3 and I've no desire to sell.Shame Potash merged with Agrium really.

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im buying around 15 companies in ladders at the moment and Royal Mail is one of them.Im down on them as a portfolio after divis by around 6% (some like BAT are up 23%,Go Ahead +37%,some like Centrica down 24%).Iv added the likes of Standard Life Aberdeen to my ladders lately as well.Id be very happy if they turned as a portfolio at around 15% down.Iv also added small ladders into a few gambling stocks,Playtech and William Hill.These will be smaller holdings than others,but i like the sector in a reflation,though tax is a big risk.Iv also added Babcock Engineering and BAE to my ladders.Babcock just below the present price and BAE 7% below it.

I will slowly skim profits from my PM miners and fund lower ladder buys going foward.

My aim is to get roughly 72% into my ladder stocks,and 23% into PM miners (mostly silver) and some physical PMs.

Il also start to slowly buy things like the Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 fund in any big sell off.

I  was looking at XAU the other day and it's interesting to see how some stocks are around where they were or actually lower than when Dec eg Gold resource corp,Freeport,PAAS,Hecla.

Yeserday was a bumper up day,but looking at some two year charts(the timeframes I've been buying over) and the volatility in most stocks has been incredible eg

[DurhamBorn]

I really like the look of SOIL SP.It has some of my favourite stocks in the sector in it like K+S AG and il have a look at some of the others they own.The Barings global owns a lot of things like tractor makers etc.I think the two would give very nice exposure to the sector for the next cycle.Can we still buy SOIL in the UK?