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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, janch said:

Do people have any thoughts on investing in renewables?  Is it worth taking a punt on small companies or stick with the likes of SSE and Centrica?  There's a lot going on with regard to storage of renewable energy too eg vanadium flow storage system.  This is going to be huge I should think since the main drawback with renewables is they only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. 

I know of a small company involved with a vanadium flow system and it has the advantage of being usable for 25 years+ ie not like a normal battery with limited life.  However the system is cumbersome so not suited to domestic use.  At the moment their stock is in pennies but if it were to take off could become huge.

is it redt? They been going for a while havent they, used to be 80p back in the day, 3.5p now.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Does anyone know what’s going on with Shanta Gold? It’s a small AIM listed miner, so open to some pretty wild swings, but it’s up 30% today and I can’t fathom why?

News said two days ago it found ore at its Tanzania mine 3 months earlier than expected.  Maybe that news was only picked up in other more widely viewed channels this morning. It's a small stock with 1.7m daily volume usually, but nearly 20m today.  Sounds like a crowd is piling in.  No idea wether it'll carry on rising or settle back.  

Purely from a technical perspective, it's forming a "lift-off-blow-off" pattern on the 15 minute chart.... straight up by X, diagonal up for a short period as some buyers wait for a pullback but others keep buying, and then, if it plays out, straight up again by X as those on the sidelines think "sod it, it's not pulling back".

If that's the case, it would likely peak around 7.60-7:70 for the day, then roll over and fall back a bit to put the late buyers underwater.  JMHO though.  Short term technical trading calls are hard.

 I've no idea of it's a decent longer term play.. Any thoughts DB / SP / others? 

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Castlevania

Thanks @MvR

I regard them as a recovery play, which got oversold due to the perceived risks of doing business in Tanzania after what happened to Acacia. Risky, but a calculated one.

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9 hours ago, MrXxx said:

...and why £250 a week?...as it's just about the personal tax allowance, very clever! :-)

Pretty much yes.I plan to run my SIPP down from 57 to 67 at the tax allowance every year and for it to run out at 67.I have a final salary pension for £80 a week from then and full state pension that will skim me just under the tax allowance.All my other assets are in ISAs that can easily get me about £12k a year in dividends now once invested.So if i retired tomorrow my income should go £250 a week until 57.£500 a week 57 until death assuming everything steady state (SIPP run down to zero then state pension/final salary kick in).My household bills all in excluding food are £280 a month and a car roughly £18 week excluding fuel.

The only reason im back at work for a bit is the chance to add what i think are very cheap assets,and it also gives me a year to position my portfolio where im not now taking anything out of it in income.The salary in the job i took is £36k a year and im saving £31k of it + £3k they chuck in a pension (that will be moved to my SIPP the day i leave).

 

 

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2 hours ago, janch said:

Do people have any thoughts on investing in renewables?  Is it worth taking a punt on small companies or stick with the likes of SSE and Centrica?  There's a lot going on with regard to storage of renewable energy too eg vanadium flow storage system.  This is going to be huge I should think since the main drawback with renewables is they only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. 

I know of a small company involved with a vanadium flow system and it has the advantage of being usable for 25 years+ ie not like a normal battery with limited life.  However the system is cumbersome so not suited to domestic use.  At the moment their stock is in pennies but if it were to take off could become huge.

Just my opinion,but i think the way to play the energy cycle is silver and silver miners and the bigger energy players who are putting the right parts into their portfolio now.Remember SSE doesnt need to sun to shine or wind to blow all the time.It has hydro and will use wind power over night to pump water back into its reservoirs.It has the biggest battery storage in the UK.Water.

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NogintheNog
4 hours ago, janch said:

Do people have any thoughts on investing in renewables?  Is it worth taking a punt on small companies or stick with the likes of SSE and Centrica?  There's a lot going on with regard to storage of renewable energy too eg vanadium flow storage system.  This is going to be huge I should think since the main drawback with renewables is they only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. 

I know of a small company involved with a vanadium flow system and it has the advantage of being usable for 25 years+ ie not like a normal battery with limited life.  However the system is cumbersome so not suited to domestic use.  At the moment their stock is in pennies but if it were to take off could become huge.

I have Bluefield Solar Income Fund and Greencoat UK Wind in my portfolio. The dividends are 4-5% and they are up about 15% since I bought them. However they are relatively small chunks of my portfolio.

 

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Worth a punt in my opinion. But I do mean a punt, only invest what you can lose.

I think that is good advice!

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From the spring statement today.

the largest ever investment in England’s strategic roads;

the biggest rail investment programme since Victorian times;

and a strategy for delivering a nationwide full fibre network by 2033

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1 minute ago, Agent ZigZag said:

77 ounces above ground, the rest has yet to be dug

True. Canada is a big resource producer so they can find more.  I found it amusing though, and reminded me of the Brown Bottom when we sold off a lot of our gold just before a huge bull market.  

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6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Does anyone know what’s going on with Shanta Gold? It’s a small AIM listed miner, so open to some pretty wild swings, but it’s up 30% today and I can’t fathom why?

Rumours re ACA.

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sancho panza
8 hours ago, JMD said:

Is peak retirement a 'thing'?

To be honest i used to hold the same opinion over pension age, but my take on things now is that more and more people will be put on a 'universal basic income' scheme in near future (after all isn't this what universal credit will morph into?) as jobs get automated. For example the transport/supply chain and retail sectors will be hardest hit.

My prediction is part-time work becoming the norm within 25 years with all adults receiving £1000/month top up, pre/post 'retirement age'.   

 

Peak oil,peak credit,peak retirement.....

 

What I mean is that the demogrpahics that will expereince the best retirement have already retired.In no particualr order

1)The finanaical position of many retirees will worsen either via the failure of state funded pensions to keep pace with inflation or private pensions to provide the returns to match their liabilities

2) healthwise,broadly speaking,healthcare will become more unaffordable both for nation states and for individuals.The number of treatments is expanding and the ability of ANY  healthcare system to handle the complex comorbities that are now presenting has to be called into question.At some pioint younger demogrpahics will realise that they're paying for healthcare and pension benefits they will never enjoy.

 

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Talking Monkey
21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Peak oil,peak credit,peak retirement.....

 

What I mean is that the demogrpahics that will expereince the best retirement have already retired.In no particualr order

1)The finanaical position of many retirees will worsen either via the failure of state funded pensions to keep pace with inflation or private pensions to provide the returns to match their liabilities

2) healthwise,broadly speaking,healthcare will become more unaffordable both for nation states and for individuals.The number of treatments is expanding and the ability of ANY  healthcare system to handle the complex comorbities that are now presenting has to be called into question.At some pioint younger demogrpahics will realise that they're paying for healthcare and pension benefits they will never enjoy.

 

Why are these complex comorbities presenting now, is it lifestyle

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sancho panza

Vix near a 6 month low

https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500

some great wolf st pieces over the weekend

 

 

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/13/e-commerce-is-wiping-out-mall-retailers-one-by-one-heres-the-data/

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

by Wolf Richter • Mar 13, 2019 • 14 Comments • Email to a friend

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/13/video-game-industry-stalls-stocks-plunge-whats-going-on/

Video games have become the largest entertainment industry worldwide by revenue: $138 billion in 2018 – beating TV ($105 billion), film box office ($41 billion), and digital music ($17 billion). But in 2019, after two decades of incessant growth, something unthinkable is lining up to happen: Sales are projected to decline, according to analysts at Pelham Smithers, cited by Bloomberg:

 

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/11/demand-for-helocs-collapses-to-15-year-low/

Demand for HELOCs Collapses to 15-Year Low

At the end of February, outstanding HELOC balances at all commercial banks in the US fell to $346 billion, according to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. They’re down 43% from the peak in April 2009 – and now back where they’d been in July 2004 on the way up. This marks a decline that has now lasted 10 years:

US-HELOCs-2019-03-11.png

 

 

 

Finally there's his now traditoanl weekend youtube vide on the truth behind the headlines of the aggregate debt figures

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/10/the-wolf-street-report-american-consumer-debt-sliced-diced-and-risky/

The Risks of American Consumer Debt Hide Beneath the Averages

On the surface, consumer debt is a smaller risk factor than it was before the Financial Crisis. But the averages conceal the reality that income & wealth disparities leave in their tracks (11 minutes):

 

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sancho panza

Vix near a 6 month low

https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500

some great wolf st pieces over the weekend

 

 

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/13/e-commerce-is-wiping-out-mall-retailers-one-by-one-heres-the-data/

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

by Wolf Richter • Mar 13, 2019 • 14 Comments • Email to a friend

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/13/video-game-industry-stalls-stocks-plunge-whats-going-on/

Video games have become the largest entertainment industry worldwide by revenue: $138 billion in 2018 – beating TV ($105 billion), film box office ($41 billion), and digital music ($17 billion). But in 2019, after two decades of incessant growth, something unthinkable is lining up to happen: Sales are projected to decline, according to analysts at Pelham Smithers, cited by Bloomberg:

 

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/11/demand-for-helocs-collapses-to-15-year-low/

Demand for HELOCs Collapses to 15-Year Low

At the end of February, outstanding HELOC balances at all commercial banks in the US fell to $346 billion, according to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. They’re down 43% from the peak in April 2009 – and now back where they’d been in July 2004 on the way up. This marks a decline that has now lasted 10 years:

US-HELOCs-2019-03-11.png

 

 

 

Finally there's his now traditoanl weekend youtube vide on the truth behind the headlines of the aggregate debt figures

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/10/the-wolf-street-report-american-consumer-debt-sliced-diced-and-risky/

The Risks of American Consumer Debt Hide Beneath the Averages

On the surface, consumer debt is a smaller risk factor than it was before the Financial Crisis. But the averages conceal the reality that income & wealth disparities leave in their tracks (11 minutes):

 

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sancho panza
49 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Why are these complex comorbities presenting now, is it lifestyle

Diabetes type 2 is going to be huge in the not too distant.Long term complications may include cardiac problems, stroke, neuropathy(loss of nervous sensation),problems with eyes and kidneys.

Also,put simply,better management of cardiac issues (such as hypertension) and respiratory conditions like COPD means that people are living longer and as they live longer,they're more likely to develop other illnessess like dementia which in itself means patients are likely to have more comorbidites than non dementia patients( I think it's circa 4 comobidities compared to 2 for the average Joe).Each comorbidity obviously carries an increased cost of care.

 

So in answer to your question,just age and diet on their own will cause Wesern societies problems that will likely sink healthcare systems as we know them.That;s before we even consider things like antibiotic resistance (which may well lead to a rise in sepsis related hospital admissions),the cost of social care and the provision of nursing homes to free hospital beds

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13 hours ago, janch said:

Do people have any thoughts on investing in renewables?  Is it worth taking a punt on small companies or stick with the likes of SSE and Centrica?  There's a lot going on with regard to storage of renewable energy too eg vanadium flow storage system.  This is going to be huge I should think since the main drawback with renewables is they only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. 

I know of a small company involved with a vanadium flow system and it has the advantage of being usable for 25 years+ ie not like a normal battery with limited life.  However the system is cumbersome so not suited to domestic use.  At the moment their stock is in pennies but if it were to take off could become huge.

I've got Siemens shares, They are very expensive but are hugely diversified across many sectors, they pay good divi's

Trains

Hospital 3D body scanners

Turbines/wind/hydro dam

in fact Siemens are the worlds largest producer of energy saving technologies, power generation, transmission and medical diagnosis tech, They work in building automation also and have a place called the crystal opposite the millennium dome where they show off their green technology

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Diabetes type 2 is going to be huge in the not too distant.Long term complications may include cardiac problems, stroke, neuropathy(loss of nervous sensation),problems with eyes and kidneys.

Also,put simply,better management of cardiac issues (such as hypertension) and respiratory conditions like COPD means that people are living longer and as they live longer,they're more likely to develop other illnessess like dementia which in itself means patients are likely to have more comorbidites than non dementia patients( I think it's circa 4 comobidities compared to 2 for the average Joe).Each comorbidity obviously carries an increased cost of care.

 

So in answer to your question,just age and diet on their own will cause Wesern societies problems that will likely sink healthcare systems as we know them.That;s before we even consider things like antibiotic resistance (which may well lead to a rise in sepsis related hospital admissions),the cost of social care and the provision of nursing homes to free hospital beds

well thanks to steroids and antibiotics we now have supersized chickens that cant walk,,, similar problems with most live stock

higher the population, quicker they knock the food out and the worse the toxins we ingest..

That's before we even start talking about micro plastics in the water we drink, including bottled spring water according to some studies I read.. Which can sit in the gut as cant be digested.

Ive said it many times, for humans to survive the greed has to stop and the population has to fall.. naturally of course not by mass hangings but with education..

We don't need more people to run the country.. we can automate all the pointless jobs fruit picking, trains, car washes, bankers.. etc As for stupid jobs like deliveroo and uber eats.. how can people be so lazy they cant get themselves to Mcdonalds.. These people doing these service jobs have to be claiming in work benefits.. You cant pay London rent prices delivering Mcdonalds? No wonder we are getting fatter and deeper in debt..

 

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Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, macca said:

well thanks to steroids and antibiotics we now have supersized chickens that cant walk,,, similar problems with most live stock

higher the population, quicker they knock the food out and the worse the toxins we ingest..

That's before we even start talking about micro plastics in the water we drink, including bottled spring water according to some studies I read.. Which can sit in the gut as cant be digested.

Ive said it many times, for humans to survive the greed has to stop and the population has to fall.. naturally of course not by mass hangings but with education..

We don't need more people to run the country.. we can automate all the pointless jobs fruit picking, trains, car washes, bankers.. etc As for stupid jobs like deliveroo and uber eats.. how can people be so lazy they cant get themselves to Mcdonalds.. These people doing these service jobs have to be claiming in work benefits.. You cant pay London rent prices delivering Mcdonalds? No wonder we are getting fatter and deeper in debt..

 

One can reduce ingesting the toxins in chicken, meat by going vegetarian, but how do you avoid the microplastic in the water

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Diabetes type 2 is going to be huge in the not too distant.Long term complications may include cardiac problems, stroke, neuropathy(loss of nervous sensation),problems with eyes and kidneys.

Also,put simply,better management of cardiac issues (such as hypertension) and respiratory conditions like COPD means that people are living longer and as they live longer,they're more likely to develop other illnessess like dementia which in itself means patients are likely to have more comorbidites than non dementia patients( I think it's circa 4 comobidities compared to 2 for the average Joe).Each comorbidity obviously carries an increased cost of care.

 

So in answer to your question,just age and diet on their own will cause Wesern societies problems that will likely sink healthcare systems as we know them.That;s before we even consider things like antibiotic resistance (which may well lead to a rise in sepsis related hospital admissions),the cost of social care and the provision of nursing homes to free hospital beds

.....and when the Health Service is privatized many will forsake a visit to the doctor until its serious, thus lessening their life expectancy, and ,`Bingo` pension crisis resolved!

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3 hours ago, macca said:

I've got Siemens shares, They are very expensive but are hugely diversified across many sectors, they pay good divi's

Trains

Hospital 3D body scanners

Turbines/wind/hydro dam

in fact Siemens are the worlds largest producer of energy saving technologies, power generation, transmission and medical diagnosis tech, They work in building automation also and have a place called the crystal opposite the millennium dome where they show off their green technology

I travel on Siemens trains for a portion of my journey to work. Pretty impressive (although I don’t think I’m a converted train spotter just yet).

I’ve been watching the share price for some time. As you say hugely expensive and included in lots of pension funds. I think that in a market crash, Siemens may be hit hard along with other big players once the trading algos sell off. It’s one on my list for after that event.

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23 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

.....and when the Health Service is privatized many will forsake a visit to the doctor until its serious, thus lessening their life expectancy, and ,`Bingo` pension crisis resolved!

You may wonder why the councils give licences to so many chicken shops. I see a majority of some schools kids eating £1.99 lunch time wing and chips deals queuing out the door. Then broken family parents picking there kids up and going into the same chicken shops for dinner.

By killing our younger potential benefit claimers off earlier, and getting as much tax back from cigarettes and alcohol from the benefit claiming parents, it almost seems like it’s planned.

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That Royal Mail chart how low will you go O.o

182506689_2019-03-1408_07_07am.png.d5341ca42eb7185a59c5fa933cf2ceb1.png

Also was reading another story the other day about Hermes will now be offering drivers self employed plus contracts which included holiday pay and a minimum wage wonder how that will start effecting there prices 

 

Also what @sancho panza link to here

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter soared 12.1% from a year ago to a new record of $132.8 billion 

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10 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter soared 12.1% from a year ago to a new record of $132.8 billion 

Just musing but from an efficiency point of view its a lot cheaper and easier to bulk ship in goods to a central location and have customers come to you than to send out and deliver 1000 low value parcels.

Mike Ashley is no mug, i'm interested to see if he is right down the line and something happens to even the score between online and the high street.

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