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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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3 hours ago, Moonraker said:

Hello Durhamborn,  In the media one reads that  JP Morgan are in possession of 750 million ounces of silver. Do you think this is real and if so, would when JP Morgan sell have an effect on your silver roadmap?

It would have no affect.Silver is all about inflation in the next cycle.Inflation in energy that drives green investment and investment demand.Who owns what in the space is always smoke and mirrors.I fully expect $150 silver minimum in the next cycle.Time will tell.

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friends view,

 a melt-up in coming months that will take the S&P to 3500-4000 . This will be followed by the biggest bear market since 1929 with the potential for an 80% drop in the bust. We will not revisit the bull market highs again for decades.My gold and silver targets remain unchanged. I continue to expect $1550 gold & $26 silver by late summer. My GDX & GDXJ targets remain the same at $40 & $70, respectively. 
I continue to expect the dollar to decline to 85-86 in coming months (months not month). Current pullback could take GDXJ back below $30 before the march to $70 resumes

This is not trading advice,just putting it out there,these are macro calls based on extremes of the liquidity and debt profiles he sees.

I actually took my profits on Great Panther Silver on friday.I had a 70% profit on it and although i would like to hold until silver hits targets,i have lots of silver positions.Im going to use the profits to buy some physical silver i think and if it pulls back to $1.05 re-enter.

I'd agree with the 80% off peak call,personally going for 75% but we're splitting hairs.I think this debt deflation has already started and the canaries are dropping in the Ozzie/Candaian housing markets.No rate rsies and yet prices and volumes are dropping.Classic Fisher Debt deflation to my untrained eye.It'll be interesting to watch Oz/Canuck credit availability going forward

I think the stock bear market has started and I think the peak is in.I'd be incredibly surprised if the S&P took out it's Sept high but two or more views is what makes markets.I'm weigihng an intial ladder short S&P on my monthly, still long on a daily /short term basis.DYOR even thougb I know you do....B|

Longer term, the momomentum started petering out nsome time back.I think they'll get some retail traders buying the S&P from here but I think the inside money won't go back on.Maybe that's what behing your mans call ie he knows the inside money is going back on for another dib.

5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

But would we get the melt up from here, I see how the Fed signalling huge liquidity via rate cuts and QE would cause a meltup, but wouldn't we need a significant pull back first for the Fed to get going with rate cuts and reducing QT starting QE, if the stockmarket is marching higher and inflation likely to pick up in May June I can't see the Fed cutting/reducing QT unless we have a significant pullback like before Christmas.

I don't doubt your call DB at all that we get a meltup, its just I would expect a significant pullback before the conditions are in place for that final meltup

I think you're right.

 

 

 

 

On 16/03/2019 at 14:43, billfunk said:

 Attached is my toplist going into the new ISA year. I will be looking for two shares initially for my LISA allowance. 

I would like one dividend payer and one potential multibagger. At the moment I am veering toward CHK - historically very cheap, directors have recently signed new 3 year contracts and bought stock. Also, TSG - read lots of positives about this miner, it fits the whole late-cycle resource thesis, has a 14% dividend and has recently been given a target of 97p by one stockbroker.

Others:

ARS - resources again, great management apparently and they are seeking to do the whole shebang themselves - aquisition, exploration and development - of their assets so the theory is they are willing and able to capture all the profits.

SNG - DOSBODS pick with a great stocko score. Recently spiked upwards. Would consider buying when it comes back and touches a few moving averages, perhaps.

YCA - uranium investment company, currently 231p, NAV gives a share price of 255p. 

CCJ - big, US uranium producer, the other half of any uranium bet, for me.

OZSC - probably shouldn't be on the toplist (my lists are all bollocks anyway - noob) but this one intrigues me. Biotech in the "Minimally Invasive Spinal" surgery sector. Big sector which they seek to disrupt through combining keyhole surgery and 3d printing type tech. Interesting but a dearth of info online.

XLM - materially oversold, online marketing (gambling) company. Great value and a well covered 8% dividend. Talk of US states legalising online gambling. Consistent profits.

RMG - on here as a "safe" dividend payer. Some early evidence to suggest recent decline is flattening so may be time now to get the 9% dividend?

 

Would welcome any thoughts.

toplist.PNG

Own Cameco,quality asset in the space imho.Less risk with URA but more upside with CCJ

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sancho panza

France must be booming....

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/paris-burning-luxury-stores-looted-and-burned-in-latest-yellow-vest-uprising-VmqoSAQPvEmo-FNSPMm0Ag/

image.png.e33046c24dbc3d1821ebf0f4e47eff65.png

Rioters looted and torched shops and businesses on the famed Champs-Elysees avenue in Paris on Saturday, on the 18th weekend of French "yellow vest" protests, characterised by a sharp increase in violence after weeks of dwindling turnout.

President Emmanuel Macron cut short a skiing trip in the Pyrenees to return to Paris for a crisis meeting, as hooded protesters went on the rampage in Paris, leaving a trail of destruction in the touristic heart of the city.

The police appeared overrun as protesters swarmed the Champs-Elysees, vandalising and later setting fire to Fouquet's brasserie, a favourite hangout of the rich and famous for the past century -- as well as luxury handbag store Longchamp, a bank, another restaurant and several news stands.

The rioters also looted several clothing stores and set fire to barricades in scenes reminiscent of the worst yellow-vest riots in Paris in December. Saturday's protests were markedly more violent than in recent weeks. Police said close to 240 people were arrested, while prosecutors said more than 100 had been taken into custody.

The bank set alight was on the ground floor of an apartment building, and fire firefighters had to quickly evacuate the residents, including a nine-month-old baby.

French Protesters Riot in Paris, Accuse Macron of “Hot Air”

French yellow vest protesters set life-threatening fires, smashed up luxury stores in Paris and clashed with police Saturday in the 18th straight weekend of demonstrations against President Emmanuel Macron. Large plumes of smoke rose above the rioting on Paris’ landmark Champs-Elysees avenue, and a mother and her child were just barely saved from a building blaze.

Cobblestones flew in the air and smoke from fires set by protesters mingled with clouds of tear gas sprayed by police, as tensions continued for hours along the Champs-Elysees. By dusk, as the demonstrators had dispersed, the famed avenue was a blackened expanse.

The resurgent violence comes at a watershed moment for a movement, which had been fizzling in recent weeks, and at the end of a two-month-long national debate called by Macron that protesters say failed to answer their demands for economic justice.

One arson fire targeted a bank near the Champs-Elysees on the ground floor of a seven-story residential building. A mother and her child had to be rescued just as the fire threatened to engulf their floor, Paris’ fire service told The Associated Press. Eleven people in the building, including two firefighters, sustained light injuries.

A 43-year-old German factory worker who identified himself only as Peter had traveled to Paris to show solidarity with yellow vest protesters. Standing Saturday outside the burned-out bank, he said he agreed with the destruction, calling banks “the biggest problem in the world.”

Riots for 18 Weeks

What kind of twisted mind agrees with violent protests that threatens innocent persons including babies?

I really thought the worst of these protests were over.

For those new to the story, these riots started 18 weeks ago in response to Macron's ill-advised gas tax hike to save the planet from CO2.

In recent weeks the crowds diminished from hundreds of thousands to the low tens of thousands. The violence tapered off as well, until today.

This is inexcusable, and so is gloating about it.

I am totally disgusted. Condolences and best wishes to those hurt by these unjustified actions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont really bother with housing mainly as il die in the one i already own outright though i do have some interest in that my son hasnt bought yet (my daughters will be mortgage free by 30 and 33 in 3 bed semis).

However i see a down 15%,small flat line or perhaps 3% increase,then slow falls in nominal and bigger in real terms.By 2028 i expect southern house prices to be down inflation adjusted by around 70%,45% minimum.

Here in the north i expect maybe 25% down inflation adjusted in some areas,nominal perhaps very small falls.Iv seen lots of southerners moving here the last year to get away from the immigration and crime in other southern areas.Never seen that before.

In short i wouldnt touch a southern house,i would buy a northern one as a home and aim to pay it off quickly before rates really jack up towards the end of the next cycle,say 2027.

If i was buying a southern house,it would be around 2028/29 as rates top out prices likely bottom inflation adjusted.

@DurhamBorn Thank You very much for your reply!:Beer:

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Democorruptcy
19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friends view,

 a melt-up in coming months that will take the S&P to 3500-4000 . This will be followed by the biggest bear market since 1929 with the potential for an 80% drop in the bust. We will not revisit the bull market highs again for decades.My gold and silver targets remain unchanged. I continue to expect $1550 gold & $26 silver by late summer. My GDX & GDXJ targets remain the same at $40 & $70, respectively. 
I continue to expect the dollar to decline to 85-86 in coming months (months not month). Current pullback could take GDXJ back below $30 before the march to $70 resumes

This is not trading advice,just putting it out there,these are macro calls based on extremes of the liquidity and debt profiles he sees.

I actually took my profits on Great Panther Silver on friday.I had a 70% profit on it and although i would like to hold until silver hits targets,i have lots of silver positions.Im going to use the profits to buy some physical silver i think and if it pulls back to $1.05 re-enter.

4000! I see that S&P blow off top keeps going up and up. I'm beginning to wonder if this next big crash will be in my lifetime!

David Hunter's twitter post over 5 years ago and he was expecting it then.

David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian 4 Feb 2014

@traderxaspenI So many are calling this a healthy correction. I see this as the start of a historic decline, swifter & steeper than 2008/9.

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"Author of an investment letter entitled the Contrarian Value Advisor which is in its fourteenth year of publication". Invite only? I can't find any record of it or how to gain access to it.

I think this is the chaps seeking alpha profile https://seekingalpha.com/user/8405611/comments

Some articles and a recent video:

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/a-bear-market-has-begun/

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/be-a-contrarian-or-be-a-victim/

 

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sancho panza
5 hours ago, A_P said:

"Author of an investment letter entitled the Contrarian Value Advisor which is in its fourteenth year of publication". Invite only? I can't find any record of it or how to gain access to it.

 

 

 

Maybe because it's invite only?

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

4000! I see that S&P blow off top keeps going up and up. I'm beginning to wonder if this next big crash will be in my lifetime!

David Hunter's twitter post over 5 years ago and he was expecting it then.

David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian 4 Feb 2014

@traderxaspenI So many are calling this a healthy correction. I see this as the start of a historic decline, swifter & steeper than 2008/9.

The next big crash will be in the next year or 2020 imho.

Calls change on the basis of what you see in front of you and on your charts.I don;t know about you Dm but I'm trying hard to be much less firm on timing than I was ten years ago.Experience teaches you there are myriad of things that can intervene in a common sense call.

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41 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Maybe because it's invite only?

The next big crash will be in the next year or 2020 imho.

Calls change on the basis of what you see in front of you and on your charts.I don;t know about you Dm but I'm trying hard to be much less firm on timing than I was ten years ago.Experience teaches you there are myriad of things that can intervene in a common sense call.

I must have not realised that and didn't write it ¬¬

With that said the chaps work history is there to be seen/not seen as are his calls. Worth looking into.

Yeah why be firm on calls, that way one can continually make them until they fit xD Go for the Schiff school of thought

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Having now followed this thread and the original for 18 months or so I do wonder what kind of portfolio sizes people are really playing with. I think this thread would get a lot more interesting and clearer if people actually posted screenshots of said portfolios and their trades (although I would never expect people to or really care for that matter). Kudos to @longtomsilver though!

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sancho panza
31 minutes ago, A_P said:

I must have not realised that and didn't write it ¬¬xD

With that said the chaps work history is there to be seen/not seen as are his calls. Worth looking into.

Yeah why be firm on calls, that way one can continually make them until they fit xD Go for the Schiff school of thought

Yeah Schiff I remember the internet flame war when Shedlock got hold of the trades Schiff had oput someone into that had got hosed.... ....I tend not to read too much into anyone's firm calls particularly on things like indices levels.It's quite simply always a stab in the dark given there are five hundred components in the S&P or the 40 in the CAC.If people and compouters can't even predict the CAC then how can they predict the S&P?

 

I mainly stick to thinking whethr somehting will go higher or lower from where we are.Just shut a long on the S&p,opened short FTSE 100 and Dax.I've no idea what particualr point I'll shut at but likely within the next two weeks and hopefully in profit....:ph34r:

I also think relative assessments on value are easier to make althoiugh I've been consistenetly wrong on UK HPI for twenty years.That's another :ph34r::ph34r:

I do have some sympathy for people who put firm calls out there for history to judge them.Fair play.The internet ensures you can't erase them.

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2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I do have some sympathy for people who put firm calls out there for history to judge them.Fair play.The internet ensures you can't erase them. 

I predict in a years time that some stocks will have gone up and some will have gone down.

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sancho panza
21 minutes ago, A_P said:

Having now followed this thread and the original for 18 months or so I do wonder what kind of portfolio sizes people are really playing with. I think this thread would get a lot more interesting and clearer if people actually posted screenshots of said portfolios and their trades (although I would never expect people to or really care for that matter). Kudos to @longtomsilver though!

I remember a punter on ToS who used to bang on about his $1.7mn and it reminded me of all those youthful conversations about shagging and penis size.

 

What matters to me far more than the size of the portfolio is what it means to people.If you're punting £1.7mn and it's 10% of your asset base and it's spread around 40 ETF's,then  specific calls aren't really that interesting..On the other hand if someone's punting £100 into a miner and it's 50% of their wealth,then that call becomes intriguing

 

What I've enjoyed in this thread is the sincerity of the contributions and the tenacity/intelligence with which people defend positions. I think thats what makes it so enjoyable to me.

6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I predict in a years time that some stocks will have gone up and some will have gone down.

I'll raise you a prediction the S&P will be lower than today but I have no idea on the level.

FTSE/DAX/CAC lower too.

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I only care about the data in front of me but like to muse about the future else things get boring.  Individual stock calls, trades, and portfolios are pretty meaningless without context.  I have several portfolios doing different things so just showing them?  Disclosing numbers is plain stupid.  Same with trade lists.  I'm certainly not dicking around!

I would like more discussion about process, like what criteria constitute a good reflation stock.  Even happy to share watchlists for illustrative purposes.  But really the biggest bang is to build rods to fish with rather than a temporary basket of fish.

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17 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah Schiff I remember the internet flame war when Shedlock got hold of the trades Schiff had oput someone into that had got hosed.... ....I tend not to read too much into anyone's firm calls particularly on things like indices levels.It's quite simply always a stab in the dark given there are five hundred components in the S&P or the 40 in the CAC.If people and compouters can't even predict the CAC then how can they predict the S&P?

 

I mainly stick to thinking whethr somehting will go higher or lower from where we are.Just shut a long on the S&p,opened short FTSE 100 and Dax.I've no idea what particualr point I'll shut at but likely within the next two weeks and hopefully in profit....:ph34r:

I also think relative assessments on value are easier to make althoiugh I've been consistenetly wrong on UK HPI for twenty years.That's another :ph34r::ph34r:

I do have some sympathy for people who put firm calls out there for history to judge them.Fair play.The internet ensures you can't erase them.

Resonable people don't expect someone to be correct all the time. Or expect them to hit their marks exactly. However, contiunally making outlandish and wild claims one could should be held to that and even be called up on it. Hard to take some of thse figureheads seriously. The chap above left SA because he couldn't handle the heat. Did anyone here yet read that first casey link I posted?

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I remember a punter on ToS who used to bang on about his $1.7mn and it reminded me of all those youthful conversations about shagging and penis size.

 

What matters to me far more than the size of the portfolio is what it means to people.If you're punting £1.7mn and it's 10% of your asset base and it's spread around 40 ETF's,then  specific calls aren't really that interesting..On the other hand if someone's punting £100 into a miner and it's 50% of their wealth,then that call becomes intriguing

To some extent I agree. However I see it differently. £100 is a gamble. They've got little to lose from that punt in the grand scheme of things. Someone investing 7 figures could easily go from living the playboy lifestyle to working in Mcdonalds to put food on the table. Which brings me to my point. There is quite a diverse range of people investing/trading here both in terms of net worth and ages. £100 trades to perhaps the odd 7 figure. It puts a different spin on their post imho

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sancho panza
1 minute ago, A_P said:

Resonable people don't expect someone to be correct all the time. Or expect them to hit their marks exactly. However, contiunally making outlandish and wild claims one could should be held to that and even be called up on it. Hard to take some of thse figureheads seriously. The chap above left SA because he couldn't handle the heat. Did anyone here yet read that first casey link I posted?

To some extent I agree. However I see it differently. £100 is a gamble. They've got nothing to lose from that punt. Someone investing 7 figures could easily go from living the playboy lifestyle to working in Mcdonalds to put food on the table. Which brings me to my point. There is quite a diverse range of people investing/trading here both in terms of net worth and ages. £100 trades to perhaps the odd 7 figure. It puts a different spin on their post imho

Agreed on point one.I think it's good that people who shill can held to account.You're dead right.

 

On two,I take your various points point and there is a diverse group on here.One of the reasons it's enjoyable and not jsut an echo chamber.

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10 minutes ago, A_P said:

There is quite a diverse range of people investing/trading here both in terms of net worth and ages. £100 trades to perhaps the odd 7 figure. It puts a different spin on their post imho.

Indeed.  Therefore helpful to provide some context when making certain posts.  I try to do this, being clear if I'm talking about a trade or say a buy and hold high yield portfolio.  Not that I want to get into the inane old chestnuts about say high yield v total return.  Things should be taken in the context and for the purpose given, assuming these are duly explained.  Readers can accept, adapt, ignore as they wish and leave it there.

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11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Agreed on point one.I think it's good that people who shill can held to account.You're dead right.

 

On two,I take your various points point and there is a diverse group on here.One of the reasons it's enjoyable and not jsut an echo chamber.

I don't know Sp, it feels pretty echoey around here. I don't recall much converstaion on alternative theses.

Perhaps Bill is the chap to follow as well xD

image.png.e2aaf4e89b6b37ac0a40d4d8cb4c0311.png

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longtomsilver
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I remember a punter on ToS who used to bang on about his $1.7mn and it reminded me of all those youthful conversations about shagging and penis size.

 

What matters to me far more than the size of the portfolio is what it means to people.If you're punting £1.7mn and it's 10% of your asset base and it's spread around 40 ETF's,then  specific calls aren't really that interesting..On the other hand if someone's punting £100 into a miner and it's 50% of their wealth,then that call becomes intriguing

 

What I've enjoyed in this thread is the sincerity of the contributions and the tenacity/intelligence with which people defend positions. I think thats what makes it so enjoyable to me.

I'll raise you a prediction the S&P will be lower than today but I have no idea on the level.

FTSE/DAX/CAC lower too.

I'm not bragging, firstly and most importantly, it's not my pot so that doesn't really matter. While on paper it looks a tidy sum - if it's to last and if we were to preserve capital then what exMrsLTS equates to a monthly income of ~£600 from 57. She's bloody lucky but not rich far from it.

I think showing the weight behind  investments highlights my conviction for a particular trade and leaves me open for constructive critiscim when they go up in smoke. 

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3 minutes ago, longtomsilver said:

I think showing the weight behind  investments highlights my conviction for a particular trade and leaves me open for constructive critiscim

True.  What they do (%) on Lemonfool.

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