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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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33 minutes ago, A_P said:

I don't know Sp, it feels pretty echoey around here. I don't recall much converstaion on alternative theses.

Perhaps Bill is the chap to follow as well xD

I know what you mean, but this thread has got a pretty clear premise which people can buy into or not. I don’t know if a lack of debate automatically equates to echoey. A lot of the discussion was done in the early days and people just seem to agree now. I guess the danger comes if people become dogmatic about it in the face of evidence to the contrary, or if people get shouted down for having an alternate thesis. Everyone is free to say what they like and start new threads accordingly. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though.

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

Having now followed this thread and the original for 18 months or so I do wonder what kind of portfolio sizes people are really playing with. I think this thread would get a lot more interesting and clearer if people actually posted screenshots of said portfolios and their trades (although I would never expect people to or really care for that matter). Kudos to @longtomsilver though!

Which post are you giving kudos for, can’t see one that fits the bill or is it something historic from ToS?

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Going off on a tangent once things go tits up are there any curve balls the system can throw at the much vaulted reflationary stocks or some of your silver plays ie nationalisation or conforscation

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52 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Which post are you giving kudos for, can’t see one that fits the bill or is it something historic from ToS?

No posts specifically in this thread or on TOS. The poster in question has shared the portfolio(s) he is in control of on the forum in other threads. I think the only user I've seen on this forum to do so in such a manner. Like he mentions above it provides substance to what he posts, which I appreciate. 

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Castlevania
1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

Which post are you giving kudos for, can’t see one that fits the bill or is it something historic from ToS?

He’s posted screenshots of his portfolio in the last share you bought and quite probably @201p‘s epic thread. Both threads especially the latter are well worth a read and contributing to.

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Castlevania
20 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Going off on a tangent once things go tits up are there any curve balls the system can throw at the much vaulted reflationary stocks or some of your silver plays ie nationalisation or conforscation

Tax rises are more likely. Gordon Brown famously charged the utilities a windfall tax back in the day. My shares in Fresnillo are currently not doing very well due to the perceived threat of tax rises from the new left wing Mexican president.

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19 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Going off on a tangent once things go tits up are there any curve balls the system can throw at the much vaulted reflationary stocks or some of your silver plays ie nationalisation or conforscation 

Confiscation is quite difficult for silver due to it being coins, bars and cutlery so do you get the police to go round peoples houses raiding for hidden dinnerware?  Since i dont have any in my posession, and lost any i did have in that unfortunate boating accident, its not a problem for me.

Mines are much harder to hide however, Mexico is up on my list of concerns if the new socialists decide they need some quick cash and go after the PM miners (snap Castlevania!)

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Tax rises are more likely. Gordon Brown famously charged the utilities a windfall tax back in the day. My shares in Fresnillo are currently not doing very well due to the perceived threat of tax rises from the new left wing Mexican president.

They will go to town on people with more than one house labour could romp it if they promise another referendum on Europe that’s if we actually get out which I doubt but the Tory’s might offer another to counter this threat

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4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Confiscation is quite difficult for silver due to it being coins, bars and cutlery so do you get the police to go round peoples houses raiding for hidden dinnerware?  Since i dont have any in my posession, and lost any i did have in that unfortunate boating accident, its not a problem for me.

Mines are much harder to hide however, Mexico is up on my list of concerns if the new socialists decide they need some quick cash and go after the PM miners (snap Castlevania!)

The yanks did indeed go after private bullion in the Great Depression true you can stash silver and even eat with it but it’s  not much good if you can’t easily sell it just playing devils advocat btw

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13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

The yanks did indeed go after private bullion in the Great Depression true you can stash silver and even eat with it but it’s  not much good if you can’t easily sell it just playing devils advocat btw

I completely agree that nothing is guaranteed, thats why diversification into as many different forms of wealth is never a bad thing.  If you have a massively underwater mortgage then you couldnt easily sell for example, that will be much more common IMO than the government coming after 10 oz of PM's.

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3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

I predict in a years time that some stocks will have gone up and some will have gone down.

Ah, a passive investor that is deep into index ETFs then?! :-)

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I remember a punter on ToS who used to bang on about his $1.7mn and it reminded me of all those youthful conversations about shagging and penis size.

 

What matters to me far more than the size of the portfolio is what it means to people.

I have a small willie and an even smaller bank account...fortunately I get more interest with one than I do with the other at the present time! :-)

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21 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Ah, a passive investor that is deep into index ETFs then?! :-)

BTFD mate!

Sheep have been well conditioned over the last 10 years, watch them go straight over the cliff....

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longtomsilver
1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

Going off on a tangent once things go tits up are there any curve balls the system can throw at the much vaulted reflationary stocks or some of your silver plays ie nationalisation or conforscation

That's where percentages come in to play for me re. the ownership. If I own 0.0000004753% of a blue chip company today then in theory I'll still own 0.0000004753% monetary value doesn't matter so much to me it's more to do with the long term survival of said company 5, 10 and 30 years henceforth.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
6 hours ago, Lavalas said:

I know what you mean, but this thread has got a pretty clear premise which people can buy into or not. I don’t know if a lack of debate automatically equates to echoey. A lot of the discussion was done in the early days and people just seem to agree now. I guess the danger comes if people become dogmatic about it in the face of evidence to the contrary, or if people get shouted down for having an alternate thesis. Everyone is free to say what they like and start new threads accordingly. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though.

Agreed. This thread is specifically about the belief something in particular is coming, and how people intend to act or are acting in response. @201p's thread is quite different, as an example.

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My portfolio is about £380k,my house is paid for (about £130k) i own another house paid for (about £80k),i have about £62k in a SIPP (growing by £2k a month) and i have a £360 a month final salary pension at 57.Im far from rich,but im very happy with where im at as i live a simple/frugal life.

Nobody has ever given me any money (apart from my parents two 2nd hand cars) and iv always worked in factories as a production worker or ran my own business.I also had 8 years off work after cancer and ran my portfolio down by about £60k over those 10 years + the income.Most of my capital has come from investing.

I spend between £600 and £800 a month all in and that includes having 2 cars and a van.

I agree people have different needs depending on portfolio size,age,wants etc,but its really outside the remit of anyone here to consider such things.Its more a friendly place where people can air their views and experience on whats going on etc.My aim is to compound at around 8% or 4% above RPI as iv done the heavy lifting in the past and capital preservation is more important.Others will no doubt have different aims.

Iv found over a long career investing and many mistakes that you create wealth slowly,and above all buy value and hated sectors,but in ladders and a broad spread.

At the very least i hope the thread has got people thinking about the macro picture underneath the headlines,because its that driving,Brexit,Trump,Italy etc etc and hopefully when people look back on this down the line the long term calls will prove right in direction if not extremes.

If its an echo chamber at the moment its perhaps because not much has changed and there are plenty of different views on here,especially around the PM sector.Of course if the thread has ran its course we could always re-visit in the future and see how accurate some of the calls were,for me that means when gold hits $1450+. and the GDX gets above $27.

 

 

 

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Democorruptcy
16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Maybe because it's invite only?

The next big crash will be in the next year or 2020 imho.

Calls change on the basis of what you see in front of you and on your charts.I don;t know about you Dm but I'm trying hard to be much less firm on timing than I was ten years ago.Experience teaches you there are myriad of things that can intervene in a common sense call.

Being less firm on the timing of a crash is a plan. If in 2014 I thought it was 2016, if in 2016 it was 2018, in 2018 it's 2020! It definitely will come, they always do, eventually. At what point it's worth not being invested waiting for it is the issue.

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Thank you for the mentions. 

Every 1-3 years there is a big trend you should look out for, and using a mechanical system, pyramiding as the trade goes your way without leverage, and looking at round numbers, you "should" be able to get something out of the market. You have to pay the tuition fee to the market first to learn (this is variable for each player).

This can mean waiting for a long time for a trend to appear - On my long blog type thread, at the start of it we saw the tail end of the growth of the growth stocks - BOO, PURP etc. Then along came the Bitcoin run, and we saw how Litecoin trebled.

Notable trends - Debtfree direct and the other CVA type stocks on the ToS, Junior miners such as AGQ (during the Jim Rogers Years), Gold (the metal $500--> $1400), The UK Growth Stocks FEVR, BOO, G4M etc.

My biggest regrets of selling too early - Medusa mining went from 20p to something like £4, Asos went from under 10p to £80 (but I am not into fashion, so I can't dwell on that)

Failures - TLW (oil), FRES (Silver) No trend happened in oil (as yet), and it's still early days for a bull market in gold and silver, although we are due for a new cycle. Blockchain stocks - they tried to catch the Bitcoin wave, but the train had already departed.

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OK, just to show that this space is not an echo chambers and that we do have a variety of investing viewpoints I would like to put this out for discussion...to save time I will not be taking anything you say as financial advice!...

So, I know the majority here are mainly active, single stock investors but I have yet to be convinced by any real argument that for the majority (who do not have hours to spare researching) that a passive, index ETF approach (as per Lars Krojer) is not the way to go...in fact I have heard a lot of dogma repeated without any real support...

Now whilst I appreciate it is `not your job` to convince/educate me to the `error of my ways`, I have often found this forum useful to `sound out` my own thoughts, and their strengths/weaknesses...

...a passive investors awaiting a Damascine conversion.

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Castlevania
10 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

OK, just to show that this space is not an echo chambers and that we do have a variety of investing viewpoints I would like to put this out for discussion...to save time I will not be taking anything you say as financial advice!...

So, I know the majority here are mainly active, single stock investors but I have yet to be convinced by any real argument that for the majority (who do not have hours to spare researching) that a passive, index ETF approach (as per Lars Krojer) is not the way to go...in fact I have heard a lot of dogma repeated without any real support...

Now whilst I appreciate it is `not your job` to convince/educate me to the `error of my ways`, I have often found this forum useful to `sound out` my own thoughts, and their strengths/weaknesses...

...a passive investors awaiting a Damascine conversion.

Surely you still have to decide which indexes to buy and in what amounts?

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5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Surely you still have to decide which indexes to buy and in what amounts?

Well according to my mate Lars is simple, a World index and a broad Gilt/Treasury in proportions to satisfy your risk profile...and then sit back and let the market wax and wane...with this `World` -approach when one equity sector/country is down another will be up..the ultimate balanced portfolio...better than having your `feet in the wrong camp` but obviously not a optimal as being all in the winning team if/when it wins!

Just to add to my post above, can anyone explain the impending negatives that some are espousing for index ETFs, as I have seen little convincing evidence for this apart from oft repeated dogma of `Index ETFs are bad, avoid!`

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8 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Agreed. This thread is specifically about the belief something in particular is coming, and how people intend to act or are acting in response. @201p's thread is quite different, as an example.

Rather than referring to the premise of the thread or any one particular thing which could be coming, my echoey comment was was more a flippant/light-hearded remakr towards general critical thinking, sharing of articles, challenging one's own beliefs etc. Afterall if you're inferring the above then that would kind of defeat the object of forums, which wasn't my purpose. It is interesting, however, it was that comment of mine that seemed to get peoples attention the most, and appears to have ruffled a few feathers. o.O xD

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4 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Just to add to my post above, can anyone explain the impending negatives that some are espousing for index ETFs, as I have seen little convincing evidence for this apart from oft repeated dogma of `Index ETFs are bad, avoid!` 

I don't think that avoid all ETF is the correct terminology, GDX and GDXJ are held by a lot of people here I imagine.  Its just watch out what they actually contain, you could be getting too much exposure to one sector (looking at you FANG's) as the fund managers all pile in to juice their returns and avoid underperforming.  Even Terry Smith of Fundsmith is guilty of this IMO when he bought Facebook (although he has claimed otherwise!). 

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