Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[SpectrumFX]

26 minutes ago, billfunk said:

I read the Turtle Trader's book. I noted that the main chap busted out!

The thing I have found most difficult as noob investor is that every theory or truism seems to have its exact opposite. You are supposed to have stops and to honour them, but at the same time you have to give your investments time to work, have conviction in them and not bail on them early. You are supposed to find a trend and follow it to the end, don't be afraid of buying in at the 52 week high because it's going to go higher, but also you have to avoid buying overbought companies. Basically there is a million and one ways to theorise the basic aim of investing - "Buy this if you think it's price is going to go up" - with the riders "soon" and "a lot". "Sell this when you think the price is going to go down". I love all the theories and investing styles but at the end of the day I always return to those fundamental questions.

That said I like the idea of scaling/laddering especially for large positions (that I will hopefully have in a few years!)

In truth it's probably a random walk.

But it feels comforting to have theories that seem to make sense of what's happening, and drawing lines on charts is a pleasant enough way to pass the time while you wait to find out whether you got lucky or not.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis

[Don Coglione]

32 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If it was that easy they wouldn’t be flogging books; newsletters and seminars.

Anyhow, the only advice that I have which tends to go against popular wisdom (diversify) if you think something is seriously under priced, fill your boots. 

I like this advice (but what do I know...?).

[Calcutta]

What's on my mind now is how an industrial, reflation cycle will effect China and Australia. As we can see Australia is in a little trouble now, any problems in China and Oz is going to suffer. In the long term, if China survives in its current form - as far as I can understand - they'll print a load of money and use it to finance the silk road and colonisation of Africa. Australia with all it's issues does still have some useful crap they can dig up, if the World is using more of said crap then Oz stands to profit and pump house prices up all over again....

I don't know, just can't seem to get my head round how those two are going to play out long term.

[deathfunk]

59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If it was that easy they wouldn’t be flogging books; newsletters and seminars.

Anyhow, the only advice that I have which tends to go against popular wisdom (diversify) if you think something is seriously under priced, fill your boots. 

I have read: "Diversification for wealth preservation. Concentration for wealth creation."

[harp]

59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If it was that easy they wouldn’t be flogging books; newsletters and seminars.

Anyhow, the only advice that I have which tends to go against popular wisdom (diversify) if you think something is seriously under priced, fill your boots. 

1

Well that's a buy on CNA (Centrica) then. 120.15 Hasn't been that low for 20 years

[Harley]

2 hours ago, billfunk said:

That said I like the idea of scaling/laddering especially for large positions (that I will hopefully have in a few years!)

All the pros I know do that, in and out.  It's called fading in and out. 

The system is ultimately the easiest and most insignificant part.  Discipline, consistency, and risk/money management are all more important.

That's why it's so hard and few make money, apart from the loud ones here today but gone tomorrow.

Trading essentially is a probability game where you try and tilt the odds slightly in your favour, like the casino does.

You can (and I did) model it, working out what return you could get based on various win rates, losses (how much you loose before pulling a trade) and profits (how long you let a trade run).

It really teaches you the dynamics and re-inforces the consistency and money management aspects, especially if you then compound the returns over say 5 years.

If the system can add an even better edge, all the better but it really doesn't have to be fantastic.

But expensive practice makes almost perfect.  That could easily take two years from initial training and setup.

And it's pretty boring and souless TBH.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, harp said:

Well that's a buy on CNA (Centrica) then. 120.15 Hasn't been that low for 20 years

I hold some but at even 9.99% yield, am hoping for some more falls.  And such a yield means something (div or price) has to give as it's the third highest yielding stock in the FTSE250.  I last bought early 2018 so am currently sitting on a loss.  As a trade I would have sold it at a profit by about mid 2018 but it was a buy and hold, hence the loss.  One of my worst performers but compensated by others which is fine as the portfolio objective is dividends with capital neutrality.  But does highlight the debate between targeting yield or total return.

[Harley]

FYI, my setup if of interest (and for comment):

High Yield (Upside Fund)

- Here is my go to source for FTSE yield information:  https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividendyield.py?market=ftse100&sort=yield&order=1

- I start here and do regular deep dives on anything appearing over 4% to 5% to check out their fundamentals (hence my keeness for screening ideas).

- I end up with a watchlist, ideally of 2 shares per sector (I only focus on macro friendly sectors per this thread and others).

- The list is mostly a focussed subset of the usual suspects you see in any fund.  About 26 shares.

- I then patiently wait for buy signals, laddering in over about three signals.

- I have no idea when to sell a buy and hold!  It would have to be a serious event, but then I have found markets often over-react and then correct (BATS?).

- I'm investigating a deviation to goose returns where I flip flop a sum between an FTSE short and a long ETF depending on buy signals.

- I look at weekly data on a Sunday evening and just poke around doing research and keeping close during the week (mostly evenings).

- I may branch out to international stocks but the FTSE feels so beaten down ATM (Brexit!), it's too tempting to stay.

- I'm winding down an ETF/IT high yield fund as the stock one has a better overall return and less counterparty risk.

Trading Fund

- I just have a screener running (TradingView) for certain technical setups and then investigate for trading possibilities. 

- I trade weekly or daily buy signals depending on how busy I am.  But I always monitor on an end of day basis.  I prefer daily trades to be with the weekly trend.

- I may go back to spread betting to short, etc when I really have the time.

- I also used to be an active and profitable (but with hindsight clueless!) part-time warrants trader and am now cautious with derivatives.

Other (Floor Fund)

- Capital accumulation and preservation (net of inflation) fund (ETFS and ITs), using the Permenant Portfolio asset allocation model (with a reluctance to buy normal bonds!)

All a bit boring really, hence I read and post here, as well as walk the dog, etc.  I do have other work to do though but am my own boss.

And I have taken up yoga as things have been especially dull since the year-end, although a few stocks are now coming into range.

TBH, I missed the year-end low what with the hols which was unforgivable as consistency rules.  Costly, but at least I didn't chase things.  Another bus will be along.

I wish I had set things up this way 10 years ago!

Any other setups?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, billfunk said:

You are supposed to have stops and to honour them, but at the same time you have to give your investments time to work,

That one bugged me for a long time.  And your right about the other stuff in a similar vein.  Set your stop too tight and you'll get stopped out only for it to take off.  That's because a common buy signal includes a subsequently small confirmatory retracement before take off (kiss and go).  Stops have to be set according to what's being traded but my trading model has a set % loss rate which I adhere to regardless because not to means I'm trading blind (off piste) and that never works in the long run.  It has to stay a controlled percentages game.  The cost is I may miss some (take, with hindsight, unecessary losses) but the game is not about being perfect.  I just view every loss as one more necessary stepping stone closer to a profit.  But then most of my few trades work, it's just the degree of profit that varies (from zero onwards).  The key is to refine the entry point (e.g. wait for the confirming retracement).  Also, a very pro trader once explained how to set stops and avoid having stops taken out ("run") by the commercial boys and girls.  Same with targets.  I never understood those.  I let things run until technical setups are met, not when £x or x% is met.  I just fade out on triggers.

[Bear Hug]

3 hours ago, harp said:

Well that's a buy on CNA (Centrica) then. 120.15 Hasn't been that low for 20 years

 

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I hold some but at even 9.99% yield, am hoping for some more falls.  And such a yield means something (div or price) has to give as it's the third highest yielding stock in the FTSE250.  I last bought early 2018 so am currently sitting on a loss.  As a trade I would have sold it at a profit by about mid 2018 but it was a buy and hold, hence the loss.  One of my worst performers but compensated by others which is fine as the portfolio objective is dividends with capital neutrality.  But does highlight the debate between targeting yield or total return.

I hold some but I am worried that there is an ongoing issue with subsidies to small (under 250,000) suppliers, i.e. they don't have to pay for Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme. The thresholds are however being lowered:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-programmes/eco/energy-suppliers

Quote

Domestic customer number and supply volume thresholds for ECO3:

	3 December 2018 to 31 March 2019	1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020	1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021	1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022
Number of domestic customers	>250,000	>200,000	>150,000	>150,000
Electricity supply to domestic customers	500GWh	400GWh	300GWh	300GWh
Gas supply to domestic customers	1400GWh	1100GWh	700GWh	700GWh

In addition, Ofgem is about to tighten licensing for new entrants:

https://www.choose.co.uk/news/2019/brilliant-energy-collapses/

Quote

Following a large number of energy provider collapses in 2018, Ofgem are expected to introduce new rules on supplier licensing next month following a consultation.

These are designed to ensure financial competence ahead of entering the energy market and check compliance with complaint handling standards among other measures.

Ofgem are also hoping to introduce new reporting requirements for suppliers already operating in the domestic energy market to limit problems in the future.

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Hi DB. I like to read this from afar. It's very interesting. 

Some alluded to the thing I just don't. 

I've said a few times... Are you sure we've not already had the credit deflation and the inflation has already been kicked off. 

Someone asked if you're expected the credit deflation, and surely a stock market crash, why the hell are you buying into it now?

It makes no sense. 

 

You can make a fortune just by sitting on your hands, that's if your right about the credit deflation to come. 

 

So are you expecting a credit deflation or not? 

 

Or are we already on a hyper inflation course., looking at house prices hyper inflation is what I see. 

 

Money's pretty much (relatively) worthless when in cones to houses now. 

 

Confused. 

 

Yes im expecting a credit deflation,but i think we are already in it.The stocks im buying are down 50%,some 80% from their highs and i am buying them in ladders.If i get all 5 ladders into all i want they will all be down 80% from highs.I dont expect they will all hit that.You have to remember i also own a lot of PMs/PM miners.I would be very happy if i ended up fully invested at any bottom -20%.I fully expect we will see big falls in the markets,but that doesnt say all stocks will go down by large amounts.For instance i bought back into BAT and thats up 25% in a very short time period.I dont try to time the market,i had price points i start buying at and then i introduce the ladders and follow them.

There will be no hyperinflation,just high inflation.The end of the next cycle could be the danger point for that.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I see Panther is back to this level, are you still interested?

Great thread BTW peeps.

My other silver miners doing very well (Endeavour up 50%) so il not be buying Panther back unless it goes down 25%.I wouldnt put anyone else off though.

[Harley]

.

 

[MrXxx]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

I hold some but at even 9.99% yield, am hoping for some more falls.  And such a yield means something (div or price) has to give as it's the third highest yielding stock in the FTSE250.  I last bought early 2018 so am currently sitting on a loss.  As a trade I would have sold it at a profit by about mid 2018 but it was a buy and hold, hence the loss.  One of my worst performers but compensated by others which is fine as the portfolio objective is dividends with capital neutrality.  But does highlight the debate between targeting yield or total return.

But it's not a loss until you sell it, in the same way that a house price gain is not one until it is sold...difference is thought that you can sell immediately and get dividends on it; don't think housing offers that at the moment but give the Government time and I am sure they will come up with some harebrained scheme!

[MrXxx]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

FYI, my setup if of interest (and for comment):

High Yield (Upside Fund)

- Here is my go to source for FTSE yield information:  https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividendyield.py?market=ftse100&sort=yield&order=1

- I start here and do regular deep dives on anything appearing over 4% to 5% to check out their fundamentals (hence my keeness for screening ideas).

- I end up with a watchlist, ideally of 2 shares per sector (I only focus on macro friendly sectors per this thread and others).

- The list is mostly a focussed subset of the usual suspects you see in any fund.  About 26 shares.

- I then patiently wait for buy signals, laddering in over about three signals.

- I have no idea when to sell a buy and hold!  It would have to be a serious event, but then I have found markets often over-react and then correct (BATS?).

- I'm investigating a deviation to goose returns where I flip flop a sum between an FTSE short and a long ETF depending on buy signals.

- I look at weekly data on a Sunday evening and just poke around doing research and keeping close during the week (mostly evenings).

- I may branch out to international stocks but the FTSE feels so beaten down ATM (Brexit!), it's too tempting to stay.

- I'm winding down an ETF/IT high yield fund as the stock one has a better overall return and less counterparty risk.

Trading Fund

- I just have a screener running (TradingView) for certain technical setups and then investigate for trading possibilities. 

- I trade weekly or daily buy signals depending on how busy I am.  But I always monitor on an end of day basis.  I prefer daily trades to be with the weekly trend.

- I may go back to spread betting to short, etc when I really have the time.

- I also used to be an active and profitable (but with hindsight clueless!) part-time warrants trader and am now cautious with derivatives.

Other (Floor Fund)

- Capital accumulation and preservation (net of inflation) fund (ETFS and ITs), using the Permenant Portfolio asset allocation model (with a reluctance to buy normal bonds!)

All a bit boring really, hence I read and post here, as well as walk the dog, etc.  I do have other work to do though but am my own boss.

And I have taken up yoga as things have been especially dull since the year-end, although a few stocks are now coming into range.

TBH, I missed the year-end low what with the hols which was unforgivable as consistency rules.  Costly, but at least I didn't chase things.  Another bus will be along.

I wish I had set things up this way 10 years ago!

Any other setups?

Thanks for this Harley, as a new (yet to take the leap) investor I find these insights on how others approach investment (with links to their resources) real useful...hopefully I will soon have my own system so that I can take the leap.

[BearyBear]

IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®

Output growth at near six-year low as manufacturing downturn deepens

Key findings: ▪

Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.5 (52.8 in Feb). 69-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 54.9 (55.3 in Feb). 2-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 44.7 (47.6 in Feb). 79-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 45.0 (47.9 in Feb). 79-month low.

 

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5b44eec864a24ca29ecd317e65e22ac8

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®

Output growth at near six-year low as manufacturing downturn deepens

Key findings: ▪

Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.5 (52.8 in Feb). 69-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 54.9 (55.3 in Feb). 2-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 44.7 (47.6 in Feb). 79-month low. ▪

Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 45.0 (47.9 in Feb). 79-month low.

 

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5b44eec864a24ca29ecd317e65e22ac8

 

It gets better:

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/21/finance-insurance-hits-it-out-of-the-ballpark-no-slowdown-in-the-huge-services-sector/

US Services 2017-2018 total revenue in US$ Bn's then YOY % increase:

Finance & insurance     4,839      6%

Banks & Nonbanks         1,355     9.7%

financial investments     684         7.7%

Insurance                         2,687        7.0%

The service sector is the US economy.  That sector is hooked on cheap fed money.  Ergo, the fed can never stop the cheap money without wiping out the US economy.

I should have noticed this sooner, its obvious that if 70%+ of your GDP is based off services then that's the only thing that the CB's are going to be interested in.

Arguably services are also more tolerant of QE (for a while), manufacturing and retail has a more instant response to FX impacts for raw materials etc. whereas typical service industries are affected longer term when rents/wages get renegotiated.

[Noallegiance]

But will we see unimaginable collapse?

Even if services is the bulk of western economies, it's still built upon digging stuff up, shipping raw materials and making stuff.

PMIs are on the way down and, according to reports today, company bad debts are on the rise.

With the number of companies already in trouble I fail to see how things can simply go on as they are.

It's like the entire leadership (gov+banks) of the west are asleep at the wheel/unwilling to admit the problems because they are the cause.

Some people think a no deal Brexit will be catastrophic. If so, what's worse than catastrophic? Because that's what the world is headed dead into at ramming speed. IMO.

[DoINeedOne]

Royal Mail Plc said Deputy Chairman Keith Williams will replace Les Owen as chairman, becoming the third person to hold the role in the past year.

Williams, former chief executive officer and chairman of British Airways, takes over as the 500-year-old post and parcels company struggles with weaker results, a shareholder revolt over pay packages and a slew of management changes.

The company said Owen, who took over from Peter Long in September, will retire.

Long stepped down to focus on his role as executive chairman at British estate agent Countrywide Plc after he faced shareholder pressure at Royal Mail for taking on too many jobs.

Two months ago, Royal Mail was forced to lower its full-year profit forecast amid larger-than-expected decline in letter volumes.

Williams, who will take over in May, climbed his way to the top of International Consolidated Airline Group's British Airways over 18 years, becoming its CEO and chairman.

During his tenure at the helm of British Airways, parent ICAG's shares nearly doubled.

Williams, who was appointed to the Royal Mail board in January last year, will step down as non-executive director of British insurer Aviva Plc.

 

 

[deathfunk]

I have stumbled across the Eschler Recovery Fund, a contrarian fund of resource and non-correlated shares with good management. Some information on the site which fits with the thesis of this thread. It may prove useful to folks here.

 https://eschlerasset.com/

[Harley]

20 hours ago, billfunk said:

I read the Turtle Trader's book. I noted that the main chap busted out!

The thing I have found most difficult as noob investor is that every theory or truism seems to have its exact opposite. You are supposed to have stops and to honour them, but at the same time you have to give your investments time to work, have conviction in them and not bail on them early. You are supposed to find a trend and follow it to the end, don't be afraid of buying in at the 52 week high because it's going to go higher, but also you have to avoid buying overbought companies. Basically there is a million and one ways to theorise the basic aim of investing - "Buy this if you think it's price is going to go up" - with the riders "soon" and "a lot". "Sell this when you think the price is going to go down". I love all the theories and investing styles but at the end of the day I always return to those fundamental questions.

That said I like the idea of scaling/laddering especially for large positions (that I will hopefully have in a few years!)

Talking of BATS elsewhere, it currently provides a great example of one way to play a momentum trade.  The weekly candles chart is below.  The stochastic broke through the 20% line in January, then breaking through the 80% line some 4 weeks later.  It's now going sideways.  Price followed and has continued to go up as the stochastic stays elevated (often happens).  A 32% pop in price!  Now the question is what will the price do next?  We can look at the MACD to help guess.  It's weakening (the bars levelling off) but is still quite strong.  So probably not a place to put new money down after such a run up, but if you had bought at the low, maybe sell a third when the stochastic first broke 80%, a third when MACD may have peaked, and a final third when MACD turns down, or some variation, maybe using identified resistance levels. 

Another thing to note is this big price move may be partly due to the big sell off in November on bad news (I mentioned before how sell offs are often overdone and there is sometimes a bounce back).  Also note the gap down in November, for as the saying goes, price often goes back to fill a gap, as it appears to be doing now.  This also shows the benefit of patience and waiting for the market to come to you.  Also shows how you can trade on a more relaxed weekly basis rather than frantic day trading (even if you had the time).  There may also have been a compelling fundamental story to this move which would have alternatively triggered a trade.  Horses for courses.  Personally, I trade price not research reports!  I research fundamentals but use these sort of technicals to time my purchases.  Others may be just as successful averaging in or whatever.  Each to their own and respect to all.

I missed this unusually good trade because I was asleep at the wheel in January (for which I've had a good spanking!), but I won't chase it, just watch and learn!  The trick with this sort of momentum trade (others available!) is to spot when a rising stochastic is truely in a breakout.  This is hard and never guaranteed.  As you can see, there have been some false starts in the past.  This is not trading advice (it's history) and for illustrative purposes only of one of many ways this could have been played for a trade (or even a buy and hold purchase).  Please don't try and trade this on the basis of what's written and such an approach is not guaranteed to work all the time!  DYOR! 

 

[deathfunk]

53 minutes ago, Harley said:

Talking of BATS elsewhere, it currently provides a great example of one way to play a momentum trade.  The weekly candles chart is below.  The stochastic broke through the 20% line in January, then breaking through the 80% line some 4 weeks later.  It's now going sideways.  Price followed and has continued to go up as the stochastic stays elevated (often happens).  A 32% pop in price!  Now the question is what will the price do next?  We can look at the MACD to help guess.  It's weakening (the bars levelling off) but is still quite strong.  So probably not a place to put new money down after such a run up, but if you had bought at the low, maybe sell a third when the stochastic first broke 80%, a third when MACD may have peaked, and a final third when MACD turns down, or some variation, maybe using identified resistance levels. 

Another thing to note is this big price move may be partly due to the big sell off in November on bad news (I mentioned before how sell offs are often overdone and there is sometimes a bounce back).  Also note the gap down in November, for as the saying goes, price often goes back to fill a gap, as it appears to be doing now.  This also shows the benefit of patience and waiting for the market to come to you.  Also shows how you can trade on a more relaxed weekly basis rather than frantic day trading (even if you had the time).  There may also have been a compelling fundamental story to this move which would have alternatively triggered a trade.  Horses for courses.  Personally, I trade price not research reports!  I research fundamentals but use these sort of technicals to time my purchases.  Others may be just as successful averaging in or whatever.  Each to their own and respect to all.

I missed this unusually good trade because I was asleep at the wheel in January (for which I've had a good spanking!), but I won't chase it, just watch and learn!  The trick with this sort of momentum trade (others available!) is to spot when a rising stochastic is truely in a breakout.  This is hard and never guaranteed.  As you can see, there have been some false starts in the past.  This is not trading advice (it's history) and for illustrative purposes only of one of many ways this could have been played for a trade (or even a buy and hold purchase).  Please don't try and trade this on the basis of what's written and such an approach is not guaranteed to work all the time!  DYOR! 

 

Check out this Momentum guy's set up. RSI, stochastic, Accum/Dist, CMF, SAR, MAs and volume. All bases covered?

 

 

 

[Majorpain]

http://www.onlypricesmatter.com/2019/03/22/global-commodities-continue-to-flirt-with-85-yr-support/

I'm no chartist, but an 85 year trend line is pretty tasty.

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Harley said:

FYI, my setup if of interest (and for comment):

High Yield (Upside Fund)

- Here is my go to source for FTSE yield information:  https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividendyield.py?market=ftse100&sort=yield&order=1

- I start here and do regular deep dives on anything appearing over 4% to 5% to check out their fundamentals (hence my keeness for screening ideas).

- I end up with a watchlist, ideally of 2 shares per sector (I only focus on macro friendly sectors per this thread and others).

- The list is mostly a focussed subset of the usual suspects you see in any fund.  About 26 shares.

- I then patiently wait for buy signals, laddering in over about three signals.

- I have no idea when to sell a buy and hold!  It would have to be a serious event, but then I have found markets often over-react and then correct (BATS?).

- I'm investigating a deviation to goose returns where I flip flop a sum between an FTSE short and a long ETF depending on buy signals.

- I look at weekly data on a Sunday evening and just poke around doing research and keeping close during the week (mostly evenings).

- I may branch out to international stocks but the FTSE feels so beaten down ATM (Brexit!), it's too tempting to stay.

- I'm winding down an ETF/IT high yield fund as the stock one has a better overall return and less counterparty risk.

Trading Fund

- I just have a screener running (TradingView) for certain technical setups and then investigate for trading possibilities. 

- I trade weekly or daily buy signals depending on how busy I am.  But I always monitor on an end of day basis.  I prefer daily trades to be with the weekly trend.

- I may go back to spread betting to short, etc when I really have the time.

- I also used to be an active and profitable (but with hindsight clueless!) part-time warrants trader and am now cautious with derivatives.

Other (Floor Fund)

- Capital accumulation and preservation (net of inflation) fund (ETFS and ITs), using the Permenant Portfolio asset allocation model (with a reluctance to buy normal bonds!)

All a bit boring really, hence I read and post here, as well as walk the dog, etc.  I do have other work to do though but am my own boss.

And I have taken up yoga as things have been especially dull since the year-end, although a few stocks are now coming into range.

TBH, I missed the year-end low what with the hols which was unforgivable as consistency rules.  Costly, but at least I didn't chase things.  Another bus will be along.

I wish I had set things up this way 10 years ago!

Any other setups?

Thanks Harley for providing this. It is very useful as I am still fine tuning my strategy. So in particular, any insights for running a balanced and well diversified, low volatile portfolio would be very welcome - as from what i've read this is the main way for keeping funds invested/deployed and therefore increasing returns. 

As I posted few days back I have recently decided on running 3 portfolios - momentum fund system; long-term buy-and-hold index/etf/fund/PM's/reflation shares (as per reflation cycle strategy); and the third to be - though not 100% certain yet - income funds/divi shares. My total portfolio value is currently 300k held in isa's/money purchase type pension. I would seek to divide into three equal portfolio amounts and rebalance yearly so each remained equal. I unfortunately don't have the skills to 'trade' but instead would be on the lookout for adding value/growth or income/divi investments over time.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, billfunk said:

Check out this Momentum guy's set up. RSI, stochastic, Accum/Dist, CMF, SAR, MAs and volume. All bases covered?

I think so!  I think I would have forgotten what the question was after all that!