Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/23/countries-with-most-monstrous-corporate-debt-pileup-u-s-wimps-out-in-25th-place-debt-to-gdp/

If you dont read Wolf's website you are really missing out.

Comments are good, lots of interesting data is better.

I once heard Luxembourg is a tax/regulatory haven for the EU elites.  Small enough to bail (them) out!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
21 minutes ago, Harley said:

I once heard Luxembourg is a tax/regulatory haven for the EU elites.  Small enough to bail (them) out!

Per capita GDP makes it very obvious, Luxembourg makes ireland look like a bunch of amateurs!  EU corporate shenanigans has made them very rich. 

I had to seach for China, it was two places below Iraq.  :o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little chart I made comparing UK CPI from 1960-2018 with the bank savings account  rates available at the time ( which looks a little high for recent years to me).  The banking system and regulatory framework is different now of course, so I'm not sure they'd have the same need to raise savings rates to attract deposits as they used to.  This means the picture may look even worse for cash savers going into the next bout of inflation.

Based on these figures, and assuming my spreadsheet-fu is correct,  100k put in a savings account in 1960 was worth a mere 2.3% more, inflation adjusted, by 1970,  but had lost 55% of its buying power by 1980, and only recovered its original buying power in 2004.  By 2018, it was worth £116k in 1960 pounds, a mere 16% real terms gain over 58 years!

1669969848_Screenshot2019-03-24at18_09_16.thumb.png.2992a8ee06bd7ae9689475df4f36e6f8.png

Data from here :-

http://www.swanlowpark.co.uk/savings-interest-annual

https://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/great-britain/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-great-britain.aspx

And a CSV for anyone who wants to check my working..

Year,UK CPI,UK Savings Rate
1960,1.81%,3.38%
1961,4.37%,3.56%
1962,2.65%,3.75%
1963,1.86%,3.56%
1964,4.8%,3.5%
1965,4.49%,3.85%
1966,3.68%,4%
1967,2.45%,4.25%
1968,5.94%,4.42%
1969,4.67%,4.88%
1970,7.89%,5%
1971,9.03%,5%
1972,7.65%,4.88%
1973,10.58%,6.58%
1974,19.14%,7.5%
1975,24.89%,7.21%
1976,15.07%,6.88%
1977,12.14%,7%
1978,8.39%,6.25%
1979,17.24%,8.31%
1980,15.12%,10.5%
1981,12.05%,8.9%
1982,5.41%,8.54%
1983,5.31%,6.75%
1984,4.58%,7%
1985,5.64%,7.57%
1986,3.75%,8.65%
1987,3.71%,9.83%
1988,4.55%,9.31%
1989,5.53%,11.96%
1990,7.49%,13.56%
1991,7.32%,10.57%
1992,2.6%,8.19%
1993,2.37%,5.66%
1994,2.01%,5.36%
1995,3.03%,5.6%
1996,2.21%,4.54%
1997,1.73%,5.45%
1998,1.56%,6.33%
1999,1.11%,4.71%
2000,0.83%,5.47%
2001,1.09%,4.64%
2002,1.62%,3.68%
2003,1.33%,3.73%
2004,1.57%,4.56%
2005,2.02%,4.92%
2006,2.86%,4.68%
2007,2.3%,5.55%
2008,3.08%,5.09%
2009,2.07%,2.21%
2010,3.15%,2.8%
2011,3.6%,2.75%
2012,2.42%,2.8%
2013,1.95%,1.77%
2014,0.71%,1.48%
2015,0.5%,1.4%
2016,1.79%,1.23%
2017,2.74%,1%
2018,2%,1.18%

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, stockton said:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-shell-power/shell-goes-green-as-it-rebrands-uk-household-power-supplier-idUKKCN1R50OL

Shell rebranding First Utility and offering 100% renewable electricity.

Is this the start of the oil majors moving in to the renewables?

Yes,and lots to come.Big oil needs route to market for electricity.They need to get people going to their stations to charge etc.Distributed energy is going to pull the rug from under the big suppliers at the back end of the next cycle.They will see huge gains as fossil fuels have one last bull market though.We dont know how the sector will farm out,but car and home will become one.I expect Centrica to expand their offering to take in all small charging places.Homes,workplaces etc and big oil to try to get people onto their petrol station assets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,and lots to come.Big oil needs route to market for electricity.They need to get people going to their stations to charge etc.Distributed energy is going to pull the rug from under the big suppliers at the back end of the next cycle.They will see huge gains as fossil fuels have one last bull market though.We dont know how the sector will farm out,but car and home will become one.I expect Centrica to expand their offering to take in all small charging places.Homes,workplaces etc and big oil to try to get people onto their petrol station assets.

I recall you see oil going very low DB sub 20 dollars, do you still see that happening. I'm guessing once the reflation infrastructure building got going oil would rocket upwards

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ordered some silver coins from Coininvest as stated before taking advantage of the VAT free whilst we are still in the EU

Eldorado Gold finailly in the green today for me hopefully it will continue along with Yamana

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass

Interesting little snippet here, looks like Volkswagen is fucked as a European manufacturer, cheap labour elsewhere will ultimately win.

As a business the margins are too small and the risk of failure too high.

Hard working post-war Germans are all retiring, the grafters have gone, investment in automation is cheaper elsewhere as an automated factory can be built anywhere, cheap still wins.

Volkswagen has struggled in terms of profitability. Last year, the operating margin for the brand dropped to 3.8 percent. For 2022, VW is estimating a 6 percent margin. The brand is funnelling resources into a host of EVs under the ID label, including a hatchback, crossover, sedan, and a reinterpretation of the Microbus. The Group aims to build 22 million electric vehicles in the next 10 years.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/volkswagen-boss-vw-needs-earn-significantly-money-cars/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Queasing said:

Recent (24/03/19) update from the true contrarian Kaplan blog - not seen it mentioned on here yet 

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-intelligent-investor-is-realist-who.html?m=1

 

 

Classic Kaplan right there,

"The ratio of housing prices to average household incomes has been 3:1 for millennia and accurately tells you not only what a house cost a century ago but also what Julius Caesar would have paid for his Roman pad.Going from 9:1 to 3:1 is going to be very painful since housing owners today, just like those in several U.S. states in 2006 or Japan in 1989, are not prepared to see their house lose over half of its value. And that is assuming that prices don't go below fair value."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Interesting little snippet here, looks like Volkswagen is fucked as a European manufacturer, cheap labour elsewhere will ultimately win.

As a business the margins are too small and the risk of failure too high.

Hard working post-war Germans are all retiring, the grafters have gone, investment in automation is cheaper elsewhere as an automated factory can be built anywhere, cheap still wins.

Volkswagen has struggled in terms of profitability. Last year, the operating margin for the brand dropped to 3.8 percent. For 2022, VW is estimating a 6 percent margin. The brand is funnelling resources into a host of EVs under the ID label, including a hatchback, crossover, sedan, and a reinterpretation of the Microbus. The Group aims to build 22 million electric vehicles in the next 10 years.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/volkswagen-boss-vw-needs-earn-significantly-money-cars/

Didn't they recently import 1M of the brightest engineers from Africa? I am sure they will be the future of German engineering excellence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 24/03/2019 at 10:46, Castlevania said:

I once viewed a flat owned by Grainger. It’s one of the worst flats I’ve ever seen. They converted a school into flats, but due to the layout and their greed they took what should have been a really nice one bed and turned it into a three bed. Two of the bedrooms were in frosted glass capsules overlooking the reception room and the third had no natural light. None of them had windows. Definitely a candidate for Vice’s shit flats feature that they used to do.

Why do we not need anymore schools.. 😂

its a worry how often they do that.. where I live we struggle to get our kids a place in school.. they are all oversubscribed, we got non of our top 5 school choices.. ended up with some rubbish school miles away.. had to wait for the shuffle to slide into one a bit closer.. but still not what we wanted.. 

my daughter is at church every other Sunday now just so we can get her into a decent school.. we are atheists.. 😂 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Article 11/13 passed today, the consequences could be interesting to say the least.

Its worth reading up on it, at best they will ban people from linking other sites on social media, at worst social media (FB) will cease operating in EU countries lest they be sued for copyright infringement.

This might be something the EU regrets if young people find out they suddenly cant share/access content online.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
29 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks. And thanks @sancho panza fir endorsing his newsletter, I've just subscribed. I've read him long enough now to see a track record, and Ill save his fee straight away by selling my IBTL :-) (for now...)

Interesting stuff coming out of big oil lately in the utility space. I'm going to buy a chunk of Shell once thing sells off. I won't have to worry about it till the day I die.

This is something i think about a lot as i own a chunk of Shell. Will buy more in a sell off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

StrugglingMillennial
On 25/03/2019 at 20:08, DoINeedOne said:

Ordered some silver coins from Coininvest as stated before taking advantage of the VAT free whilst we are still in the EU

Eldorado Gold finailly in the green today for me hopefully it will continue along with Yamana

Any particular coin or did you go for the low priced stuff.

I forgot that leaving the EU will effect the VAT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
21 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Interesting, so what is shell up to these days with electricity, are they building wind/solar farms?

They bought First Utility and have rebranded it Shell Energy. They’re also installing electric car charging points at their service stations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They bought First Utility and have rebranded it Shell Energy. They’re also installing electric car charging points at their service stations. 

I noticed that I thought it was a scam at first lol but I noticed the web site was down all weekend for the rebranding

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They bought First Utility and have rebranded it Shell Energy. They’re also installing electric car charging points at their service stations. 

I read somewhere, that the future for electric cars will be the charging points located in supermarket car parks and the like as you mention. People will shop while at garages/supermarkets. The original petrol only garages are morphing into supermarkets already...So that people can keep their car batteries topped up during their every day routines rather than only when their car is parked up at home.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Any particular coin or did you go for the low priced stuff.

I forgot that leaving the EU will effect the VAT.

Britannia's 2019 mostly because there CGT (Capital Gains Tax Free) but that could always change in the fututre...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 23/03/2019 at 07:21, DurhamBorn said:

I took some profits off the table Thorn in a few PMs  mainly selling a silver miner and top slicing a few goldies,but holding most.I still think May/June might see them start to trend.The Fed is trapped,they tightened too much already and if inflation does nudge higher they are goosed,tighten into a depression or sit tight and see a massive debt deflation speed up.My guess is they will wake up to their mistakes pretty quickly,but wont act until its too late.The worse part is i think we might be about to go into a "normal" business cycle recession  at the same time as a credit event.Thats as dangerous as it gets and it was similar in the late 20s.

The equity markets might run higher yet if they smell QE from the CBs,but its too late,they will be firefighting soon enough i think.The question is do all equity markets go down together,or have some seen a big chunk of the falls.Many UK stocks look dirt cheap on a discounted cash flow if we assume CB money flooding the downturn lifts things back.Looking at the growth shares/momentum i reckon most are in for 80% falls,some 90%+.Once they cant fund growth from equity and debt the market will discount them to 15 times free cash flow at best,and thats if they have free cash flow.

Harry Dent seems aligned to your thoughts DB (first para) but he sees gold at 700 but 2022, appreciate he’s been wrong on more than he’s been right recently but his thinking is gold only goes up in inflation eras and were about to see the biggest deflation era in 90 years..

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Gin said:

I read somewhere, that the future for electric cars will be the charging points located in supermarket car parks and the like as you mention. People will shop while at garages/supermarkets. The original petrol only garages are morphing into supermarkets already...So that people can keep their car batteries topped up during their every day routines rather than only when their car is parked up at home.

It’s got to be that way. So many people don’t have a drive way or garage to facilitate charging. Cables trailing out of terraced house windows across the pavement isn’t going to work. Need charging points everywhere a car will park off road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso

i left first utility last year, they were creeping prices up to almost british gas levels who i came from to join FU a few years ago, i wonder if they will be worth going back to once shell has done with them, its unlikely but theyll have to position i suppose.

Just did a quick unscientific quote @ shell energy (nee FU) - £80  amonth was their lowest, bulb currently charge me £63 a month, ill pass for now.

But ill watch the SP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...