Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, Gin said:

I read somewhere, that the future for electric cars will be the charging points located in supermarket car parks and the like as you mention. People will shop while at garages/supermarkets. The original petrol only garages are morphing into supermarkets already...So that people can keep their car batteries topped up during their every day routines rather than only when their car is parked up at home.

IMO we're going to have a 'first adopter tragedy' -- we're currently putting in all this charging infrastructure, then all of a sudden the tech requirements will change and we'll be left with a malinvestment.

[IMOthe future of electric cars is metal-air batteries.  This would throw the current e-car experience 'upside down' -- a cheap battery with frequent replacement (as they're probably going to be non-rechargeable), compared with an expensive battery fitted-for-life.  The initial benefit for the user would be vastly increased range for lower capital cost (even if the lifetime costs might be similar to Li-ion), but the main reason for the companies going all in would be because the 'replace battery monthly' model is compatible with a subscription model for pricing (rather than the capital model we've got now) -- the car companies get ongoing and reliable income on ownership rather than one-off income + a bit of maintenance.]

[hence the charging infrastructure becomes pointless -- there are no requirements for overnight charging if the ownership model is monthly battery replacement at the 'depot']

[leonardratso]

24 minutes ago, dgul said:

IMO we're going to have a 'first adopter tragedy' -- we're currently putting in all this charging infrastructure, then all of a sudden the tech requirements will change and we'll be left with a malinvestment.

[IMOthe future of electric cars is metal-air batteries.  This would throw the current e-car experience 'upside down' -- a cheap battery with frequent replacement (as they're probably going to be non-rechargeable), compared with an expensive battery fitted-for-life.  The initial benefit for the user would be vastly increased range for lower capital cost (even if the lifetime costs might be similar to Li-ion), but the main reason for the companies going all in would be because the 'replace battery monthly' model is compatible with a subscription model for pricing (rather than the capital model we've got now) -- the car companies get ongoing and reliable income on ownership rather than one-off income + a bit of maintenance.]

[hence the charging infrastructure becomes pointless -- there are no requirements for overnight charging if the ownership model is monthly battery replacement at the 'depot']

like a pcp car but for the battery only? I could go for that if the monthly/<insert life expectancy> was reasonable enough.

At work i see 2 tesla charge points across the road in a hotel, both are in constant use (probably 24/7) so obviously somewhere theres a lot of teslas (maybe a hire company or are they company cars? i dunno), but anyway, they spend a lot of time being charged and then rotated constantly looks laborious.

[dgul]

18 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

like a pcp car but for the battery only? I could go for that if the monthly/<insert life expectancy> was reasonable enough.

At work i see 2 tesla charge points across the road in a hotel, both are in constant use (probably 24/7) so obviously somewhere theres a lot of teslas (maybe a hire company or are they company cars? i dunno), but anyway, they spend a lot of time being charged and then rotated constantly looks laborious.

If they went for a metal-air battery model, I'd say we'd end up with the car being free and you purchase a miles-per-month commitment for x years.

 

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, dgul said:

If they went for a metal-air battery model, I'd say we'd end up with the car being free and you purchase a miles-per-month commitment for x years.

 

id pcp now but i do a lot of mileage and the cost doesnt work for me, plus as ive got older i no longer really care about what car im driving or how old/fast it is. Its just transport A to B to be honest, reliability is all i need, im never in a rush anymore and dont really GAFF what the neighbours think.

[RickyBacker]

Quote

the main reason for the companies going all in would be because the 'replace battery monthly' model is compatible with a subscription model for pricing (rather than the capital model we've got now) -- the car companies get ongoing and reliable income on ownership rather than one-off income + a bit of maintenance.]

I live in Taiwan and over here there everyone rides scooters. There is a relatively new electric scooter company that is doing really well (Gogoro). They use this switch out the battery method. The batteries are stored at the petrol station and it takes about ten seconds replace your battery with one of the fully charged ones. Subscription with maintenance, exactly as you described.

[Gin]

..

[Gin]

If the weight of batteries can be brought down drastically then the idea that they could be swapped in between charges surely is the way to go. Battery technology is advancing quickly. At the moment for example Tesla batteries weigh just over half a Ton, so at the moment no way can anyone consider it being done at home....

[DoINeedOne]

 

51 minutes ago, RickyBacker said:

I live in Taiwan and over here there everyone rides scooters. There is a relatively new electric scooter company that is doing really well (Gogoro). They use this switch out the battery method. The batteries are stored at the petrol station and it takes about ten seconds replace your battery with one of the fully charged ones. Subscription with maintenance, exactly as you described.

Sounds interesting 

 

[DoINeedOne]

The final demise of South Africa’s gold industry came a step nearer on Wednesday with the announcement that Sibanye Gold Ltd. won’t extend the life of Driefontein, once the biggest mine on the continent.

Last year the mine, more than 2 miles (3,200 meters) deep, produced about 300,000 ounces of gold, just a fifth of its peak output two decades ago.

[Majorpain]

54 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The final demise of South Africa’s gold industry came a step nearer on Wednesday with the announcement that Sibanye Gold Ltd. won’t extend the life of Driefontein, once the biggest mine on the continent.

Last year the mine, more than 2 miles (3,200 meters) deep, produced about 300,000 ounces of gold, just a fifth of its peak output two decades ago. 

Actual mines are redundant these days, its much easier trading paper gold which can be conjured from thin air

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Look up thread, they're buying, mostly. They have such cashflow they can buy what they like, and thats how big oil will transition from fossil only. They could buy Centrica with no debt with a few months free cash in a good year. @DurhamBorn has mentioned the likes of Centrica being taken out before realising it's full value as a concern. I think it's a realistic scenario and I noted defensiveness in Centrica CEO comment recently "Big oil don't want to be messing around with retail, it's difficult you know"

Exactly CP and i just hope they dont get taken out before about £4 a share minimum is in.Like you say big oil will have massive free cash flow in the next cycle and will simply buy up what they need.If i was BP i would be taking out Centrica now before things heat up,there are only so many key players.I dont think people understand how well Centrica have done in getting the tech in for the economy going more electric.The Spirit spin off was obvious and i think once/if they unload the nuclear power stations they will be in play.Centrica have stakes in world leader companies in electric car charging apps and blockchain distributed energy etc.Those will be key to getting customers for electric cars.The market is looking backward in the space as usual at key inflection points for me.As a long term contrarian thats fine by me though.

Oil will be $200 minimum in the next cycle.Only question is when for me,not if.

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

I live in Taiwan and over here there everyone rides scooters. There is a relatively new electric scooter company that is doing really well (Gogoro). They use this switch out the battery method. The batteries are stored at the petrol station and it takes about ten seconds replace your battery with one of the fully charged ones. Subscription with maintenance, exactly as you described.

Mod scooters

Or kids scooters

/

[JMD]

9

7 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Harry Dent seems aligned to your thoughts DB (first para) but he sees gold at 700 but 2022, appreciate he’s been wrong on more than he’s been right recently but his thinking is gold only goes up in inflation eras and were about to see the biggest deflation era in 90 years..

 

Anyone here want to contribute their thoughts re. Harry's 'Sun Spot cycle'... (perhaps contrarians could short the lunar cycle!)

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

I live in Taiwan and over here there everyone rides scooters. There is a relatively new electric scooter company that is doing really well (Gogoro). They use this switch out the battery method. The batteries are stored at the petrol station and it takes about ten seconds replace your battery with one of the fully charged ones. Subscription with maintenance, exactly as you described.

That would be the most obvious answer to limited range on a battery, question is, can the car manufacturers agree on a battery design? money on vhs or betamax?

[Innkeeper]

Until batteries become portable for cars (and bikes) then it seems to me that electric vehicles will remain a niche product.  Once you can charge batteries inside your home or at the 'energy station' then the move off petrol and diesel will be rapid (not so sure about HGVs though).

Big Oil has to be looking at this....

[dgul]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm sure they are, but so far nothing outside nuclear comes close to the energy density of hydrocarbons. It really is a one off gift, and we need to use it more wisely to change our world.

Aluminium-air batteries have a higher energy density than hydrocarbons.

[Bobthebuilder]

45 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm sure they are, but so far nothing outside nuclear comes close to the energy density of hydrocarbons. It really is a one off gift, and we need to use it more wisely to change our world.

One thing about big oil and utilities struck me. The financial people in oil companies love shale resources as much as geologists hate it, for one reason: no exploration risk and low uncertainty. Easy economic modelling, no surprises, steady if unspectacular earner. The same could be said for a well positioned electricity business.

I am often asked if  there's a electric equivalent of a gas powered combi boiler. Minimum 24kw, no such thing exists that can be run of a standard domestic fuse board. The whole system needs uprating.

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am often asked if  there's a electric equivalent of a gas powered combi boiler. Minimum 24kw, no such thing exists that can be run of a standard domestic fuse board. The whole system needs uprating.

This reminded me of https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6804685/Fossil-fuel-heating-systems-BANNED-new-build-houses.html

Quote

The installation of new gas boilers to provide heating and hot water is set to banned for new homes from 2025 in a move that could add £5,000 to the average price, Chancellor Philip Hammond revealed today.

The Government's advisory Committee on Climate Change recommended ending the connection of new homes to the gas grid by 2025 in a report last month, with properties heated with low-carbon energy instead.

The Chancellor announced new standards 'mandating the end of fossil fuel heating systems in new homes from 2025 delivering lower carbon, and lower fuel bills too'.

But the government have not specified exactly what will replace the traditional boiler - with concerns about how long high-tech low carbon heaters can take to warm a room and cost implications for taxpayers.

I know it's Daily Fail but it has been covered elsewhere too.  As if newbuilds needed any help with making them even less attractive.

[reformed nice guy]

I hope I am not being a bore with these pictures of the US treasury yield curve but I find them fascinating. If the big players are buying bonds, what should we be doing?

 

[Calcutta]

When i was a kid we had coal fired to heat the water, no waiting for the landlord to fix the boiler, made the streets smell beautiful, easy way to get rid of rubbish. I miss it everytime the poxy boiler bugs out.

[Bobthebuilder]

Right on que.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47728548

[Majorpain]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Right on que.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47728548

Morons.

Nat Grid - £30Bn

Water - £69Bn +

The shareholders of the above will be the only ones to benefit, as night turns into day if they go after National Grid the Water companies will be next.  Taxpayers/savers rinsed for £100Bn so Labour can get its trainset back.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Right on que.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47728548

that link doesnt work here? is it c+p wrong

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

that link doesnt work here? is it c+p wrong

Haven't got a clue, know nothing about computers.

It,s a report about how the Labour government wants to nationalize National Grid, to install car charging points etc, etc. 

[leonardratso]

get this when you click on it, doesnt matter, youve nicely precis'd it there.

Ill bet he never produces a detailed report on how this would work though, just pissing in the wind to be honest (gonna get covered in blown back piss).