Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

that link doesnt work here? is it c+p wrong

The article has been removed for some reason.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

The article has been removed for some reason.

maybe it was unresearched unadulterated shite.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

On 26/03/2019 at 18:34, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks. And thanks @sancho panza fir endorsing his newsletter, I've just subscribed. I've read him long enough now to see a track record, and Ill save his fee straight away by selling my IBTL :-) (for now...)

Interesting stuff coming out of big oil lately in the utility space. I'm going to buy a chunk of Shell once thing sells off. I won't have to worry about it till the day I die.

Selling IBTL because long-dated treasuries are in favour? What was your reason for buying them in the first place? Not criticising, just interested as selling now seems contrary to why I bought mine. When do you intend to get back in?

I bought as a hedge against Sterling devaluation, and as a safe haven in crashy times.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Sorry, I've read the article now. Have you swapped to short-dated ones?

[BearyBear]

Wow...!

https://wowair.com/travel-alert

End of Operation of WOW AIR

 

Information for WOW AIR passengers

WOW AIR has ceased operation. All WOW AIR flights have been cancelled.

 

How will I reach my destination?

Passengers are advised to check available flights with other airlines.

Some airlines may offer flights at a reduced rate, so-called rescue fares, in light of the circumstances. Information on those airlines will be published, when it becomes available.

What are my rights?

Passengers whose ticket was paid with a credit card are advised to contact their credit card company to check whether a refund of the ticket cost will be issued.

 

Passengers who bought their ticket from a European travel agent (within the European Economic Area) as a part of a package tour (a package which includes flights and accommodation or other services) are protected by the Package Travel Directive. Those passengers are advised to contact their travel agent to arrange an alternative flight.

Passengers who may have bought travel protection, or those passengers whose credit card terms may include such protection, may be entitled to claim compensation and assistance due to delays or travel disruption. However, such compensation is often limited.

Passengers may also be entitled to compensation from WOW AIR, including in accordance with European regulation on Air Passenger Rights. In case of a bankruptcy, claims should be filed to the administrator / liquidator.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Ta for the response. I must admit I was hovering over the sell button today.

Sold half my SBGL yesterday at $4.78 as I'd doubled my money. What incredible timing that turned out to be! Down around 14% since then.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I might sell some, had a nice little run. I sold a chunk of miners a few weeks ago as were all oversold. Im hoping this is the correction as forecast by DB. I'm a big buyer @ gdxj c. 30. I only have a hokding position at the moment and am itchy. I think he's absolutely right about a run up to the end of summer, just in time for a black October in the markets. I think itll be my last trade before going to cash to sit out the crash and buy toward the bottom. Things are getting a bit crazy, my palladium short closed on the limit side without me noticing, I expected a severe correction, not 15% straight down in two days. Nuts. Still, can't complain. My S&P short is refusing to budge, and I'm starting to worry about a final parabolic there so have reduced my short. You cannot account for mass stupidity, which makes gold a much higher probability trade. Stupid isnt in gold yet. Last time they were I was getting £10 premiums plus VAT on my silver coins.

I just cant understand how some are predicting the S&P to go parabolic and up t 3500-4000 that would be a nuts move s late on with the recession alarm bells starting to sound

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

59 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just cant understand how some are predicting the S&P to go parabolic and up t 3500-4000 that would be a nuts move s late on with the recession alarm bells starting to sound

I guess the clever money is out and retail Joe Public might pile in just in time to lose a fat wad, much like bitcoin's run up to $20k. You'll never make your fortune if you take your investment cues from the MSM.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I might sell some, had a nice little run. I sold a chunk of miners a few weeks ago as were all oversold. Im hoping this is the correction as forecast by DB. I'm a big buyer @ gdxj c. 30. I only have a hokding position at the moment and am itchy. I think he's absolutely right about a run up to the end of summer, just in time for a black October in the markets. I think itll be my last trade before going to cash to sit out the crash and buy toward the bottom. Things are getting a bit crazy, my palladium short closed on the limit side without me noticing, I expected a severe correction, not 15% straight down in two days. Nuts. Still, can't complain. My S&P short is refusing to budge, and I'm starting to worry about a final parabolic there so have reduced my short. You cannot account for mass stupidity, which makes gold a much higher probability trade. Stupid isnt in gold yet. Last time they were I was getting £10 premiums plus VAT on my silver coins.

I took a lot of money out of the miners,top sliced some and sold of a couple that had nearly doubled (anglogold and Panther silver) as i expected a sell off,though i kept a lot invested.

Iv been using AG as my tracking stock for the silver miners and would like to see it fall to $5.50 or less going into May and i would then be going full tilt again into it,Endeavour Silver,maybe Panther again etc.I think the May/June time is crucial because i expect we might see a small stirring in inflation then in the US and with the Fed boxed in that might see the complex start to trend.If GDX gets under $21 again id consider that time to fully commit again.The complex might remain choppy so anyone holding without taking some profits needs to accept the wild swings.

[Thorn]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I took a lot of money out of the miners,top sliced some and sold of a couple that had nearly doubled (anglogold and Panther silver) as i expected a sell off,though i kept a lot invested.

Iv been using AG as my tracking stock for the silver miners and would like to see it fall to $5.50 or less going into May and i would then be going full tilt again into it,Endeavour Silver,maybe Panther again etc.I think the May/June time is crucial because i expect we might see a small stirring in inflation then in the US and with the Fed boxed in that might see the complex start to trend.If GDX gets under $21 again id consider that time to fully commit again.The complex might remain choppy so anyone holding without taking some profits needs to accept the wild swings.

DYOR etc and interesting to wonder what might happen out there from now til then DB. In the meantime if the FAANGs lead things into a meltup til then Scottish Mortgage Trust has good exposure. Just checking it out now. 

[DoINeedOne]

Still holding SBGL up around 85% with the drop over the last few days, today was a bad day, and my silver coins i ordered are stuck in Germany delayed apparently they have gone on union strike 

A weird day might sell SBGL tomorrow and take the profit 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, DoINeedOne said:

Still holding SBGL up around 85% with the drop over the last few days, today was a bad day, and my silver coins i ordered are stuck in Germany delayed apparently they have gone on union strike 

A weird day might sell SBGL tomorrow and take the profit 

Nothing wrong with 85% profit banked.If we do see a good pullback it would be firepower to deploy into some silver miners.I missed the rally in SBGL this time as i didnt re-buy them due to the fact id owned them several times and they have been very king to me over the years and didnt want to tempt fate one last time 

 

[MvR]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just cant understand how some are predicting the S&P to go parabolic and up t 3500-4000 that would be a nuts move s late on with the recession alarm bells starting to sound

Martin Armstrong is suggesting a looming crisis around May with the European elections, fear of capital controls in emerging markets, etc. causing a flight to quality, notably the US dollar and the short term treasury bills. He says this is the main driver of the inverted yield curve, rather than the threat of recession in the US.  

If there is a flight to quality without the threat of recession, I can see how this could push US equites higher as some investors go to US equities instead. Add an equity short squeeze and capitulating bears who've been on the sidelines, and a final run to 3500-4000 sounds at least possible.

Personally I've decided to make a small bet on it happening with 10 far out-of-the-money Jan 17 2020 SPY 350 call options. A total outlay ( and max loss ) of $270 with a  potential 20x - 200x payout if we do get to 3500-4000 by mid autumn this year.

I've also been inching into a similar silver position with a spread of options from 25 down to 20 strike prices, only expiring January 2021, for $35 a contract. Aiming to take a profit on these, or cover them with short calls if gold hits 1500+

This definitely falls under "gambling", but I'm hedging with a limited risk short gold combination going into May that so far has covered 1/2 of my outlay on the SPY calls, and could cover most of the silver calls too. 

This is totally opposite to my normal options selling strategy. The market odds are telling me it won't work out, but this feels like one of those years the markets get it wrong. Either way, I'm not confident selling options to bet against large moves this year, so I might as well take a measured punt.  

It's unlikely I'd have the nerve to hold for the big payouts, but if I can fund next year's ISA allowance with any profits, I'll be a happy man indeed.  If that happens and I've enough left over to play SPY the same way back down, I'll do the same in reverse.

 

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

I wish I knew how to do that @MvR...

[MvR]

54 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I wish I knew how to do that @MvR...

You can learn everything you need to know here : - https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/.  It takes some time commitment to watch enough content to pick everything up, but much of the content is aimed at beginners. 

You can trade in their brokerage here :- https://tastyworks.com

$5000 is plenty big enough to fund a starter account.  

Don't start with gambles like the one I'm making.  You'll either lose money quickly, or make money quickly, get over-confident, and then lose it all again.  Start with their recommended options selling strategies.  Like a casino, the odds are against buyers of options in the long run. Selling works in the long run because of this statistical imbalance, but requires very careful risk management.

So, you're best starting as a seller, but limiting your exposure with very small, fixed risk trades, where you won't make or lose much money overall, and you'd be incredibly unlucky to make a large loss in the long run if you stick to their advice, place lots of small diversified trades etc.  After a few months you'll get the hang of how everything works.  

And keep detailed records of all your trades in a spreadsheet, or on index cards, including the dollar / sterling exchange rates when you enter or exit a trade. Otherwise you'll have a nightmare sorting your tax out.. their reporting isn't good for UK traders.

 

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Thank you. Without a chart ticker to watch I reckon I'm far more likely to stay the course with my risk management. I'm a sucker for watching live feeds on trades I have open in crypto and forex. I've been at the latter for nearly 15 years for entertainment purposes and I'm slightly up, so it would be nice to find something to trade that was easier not to get emotionally involved in!

Much appreciated @MvR. You deserve multiple reps.

[MvR]

17 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Thank you. Without a chart ticker to watch I reckon I'm far more likely to stay the course with my risk management. I'm a sucker for watching live feeds on trades I have open in crypto and forex. I've been at the latter for nearly 15 years for entertainment purposes and I'm slightly up, so it would be nice to find something to trade that was easier not to get emotionally involved in!

Much appreciated @MvR. You deserve multiple reps.

No problem.  I'm the same when it comes to regular trading.  The potential for lots of small losses adding up, or missing out on a good exit point and seeing a winning trade turn into a loss is stressful. I know I'm opening myself up to some of this with my gamble trade above.

Options selling really help in this regard, as long as you do it properly. It's all very mechanical, and you know the odds and your exit points before you enter the trade. It can be just fire-and-forget.  

With limited risk trades ( where a short option is covered by a long option slightly further away from the current price ), you know you can't lose more than your expect, and unlike stop-losses, which take you out of the trade if the market goes against you, an options trade stays active so if the market turns back in your preferred direction, you're back in play.  Psychologically this is a huge benefit.  

It can all be a bit overwhelming at first, but once you understand how it all works, it's actually pretty simple. At that point, options become a kind of financial lego, where you can construct any kind of trade you like, with exactly the risk profile and profit-loss potential you require, and know the probabilities of it working out before you enter the trade.  You can even construct "synthetic" stock positions based on ETFs like GLD that we can't currently access in the UK, which is nice.

[DoINeedOne]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing wrong with 85% profit banked.If we do see a good pullback it would be firepower to deploy into some silver miners.I missed the rally in SBGL this time as i didnt re-buy them due to the fact id owned them several times and they have been very king to me over the years and didnt want to tempt fate one last time 

 

Yeah i will probably sell today, rather than being greedy i was up 105% few days back 

Whilst nothing to do with gold i subscribed to RealVision and was watching a couple of the interviews when one mentioned a story about Isac Newton going broke from South Sea stocks after jumping back in, The story has kinda stuck in my head over the last days thinking about it a few times, also made me think about crypto and how that blew up and everyone was going mad buying 

 

Actually printed this off and now sits on my desk as a reminder 

 

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing wrong with 85% profit banked.If we do see a good pullback it would be firepower to deploy into some silver miners.I missed the rally in SBGL this time as i didnt re-buy them due to the fact id owned them several times and they have been very king to me over the years and didnt want to tempt fate one last time 

 

Reckon they are still worth it after saying they aren't going to extend mining operations at Driefontein? I'm pondering dumping the rest...

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Reckon they are still worth it after saying they aren't going to extend mining operations at Driefontein? I'm pondering dumping the rest...

Sorry no, my bad. Ignore.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Actually, it looks like a drop in palladium has been responsible for the big drops in SBGL...

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

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"London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html

AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very MAD...NICE!

 

[DoINeedOne]

Just sold all my SBGL

[leonardratso]

18 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just sold all my SBGL

good call, it will probably shoot to the moon now,  for no reason whatsoever. I was umming and arring over sla yesterday, wish id bought it now done nowt but go up today.

Ah well, be another one along in a minute.

[Wheeler]

17 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just sold all my SBGL

 

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

good call, it will probably shoot to the moon now,  for no reason whatsoever. I was umming and arring over sla yesterday, which id bought it now donr nowt by go up today.

Ah well, be another one along in a minute.

I’ve sold half of my SBGL and got back my original investment in them (or just about) so the remaining shares are effectively free. I’m happy to hold them regardless now.

 I just need to resist putting the extra funds into New Gold!