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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

 

I’ve sold half of my SBGL and got back my original investment in them (or just about) so the remaining shares are effectively free. I’m happy to hold them regardless now.

 I just need to resist putting the extra funds into New Gold!

Nice i was going to do that too, selling half that is but may buy back in at some point

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I recently read "Lords of Finance". The late stages of 1929 were properly f*cking mental 

True.. Looking at the chart the Dow rose 28% from 297 at the end of May to 380 at the end of August 1929. Even from the previous round top earlier that year it was an 18% gain.

Those percentages applied to the S&P, would put the top between 3250 and 3750. It still feels like a long shot,  

531053632_Screenshot2019-03-29at16_37_01.thumb.png.eec4d05c089fa147e2fd7999bfc15c7a.png

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Castlevania
4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I recently read "Lords of Finance". The late stages of 1929 were properly f*cking mental 

That’s a great book

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, MvR said:

True.. Looking at the chart the Dow rose 28% from 297 at the end of May to 380 at the end of August 1929. Even from the previous round top earlier that year it was an 18% gain.

Those percentages applied to the S&P, would put the top between 3250 and 3750. It still feels like a long shot,  

531053632_Screenshot2019-03-29at16_37_01.thumb.png.eec4d05c089fa147e2fd7999bfc15c7a.png

Bloody hell it lost over 80% that would have been brutal to lots of folks

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Castlevania
26 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Bloody hell it lost over 80% that would have been brutal to lots of folks

A lot of people traded with leverage from the bucket shops (the olden day equivalent of your spread betters). Houses in the Hamptons lost 90% of their value.

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I’ve sold my tw. Today  .   Will put a bit to it and that’s another 25% of my mortgage gone when I return the crest form 

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Castlevania
11 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’ve sold my tw. Today  .   Will put a bit to it and that’s another 25% of my mortgage gone when I return the crest form 

Nice one, I thought you’d never sell due to you liking the help to buy funded dividend cheques and the fact you bought them the old school way. Sounds like a great investment you made. Never ever be scared to take a profit or something. Have a beer to celebrate :)

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7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Nice one, I thought you’d never sell due to you liking the help to buy funded dividend cheques and the fact you bought them the old school way. Sounds like a great investment you made. Never ever be scared to take a profit or something. Have a beer to celebrate :)

I’ve had a large bet that I can pay it off before Xmas in order to do that I’d have to overpay it by 1k a month the rules are no bank loans use of credit cards or useing my overdraft and I won’t cheat however I’ve just had to stump up 1600 quid for carpets for the girlfriends place that fucked up my strategy a bit top that off with my car insurance being due so I’ve sold them shares we re not meantioned so it’s not cheating the bet is for a larger amount than the yearly dividends due this year I bought the fuckers 8 and a half years ago apparently 

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Castlevania
3 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’ve had a large bet that I can pay it off before Xmas in order to do that I’d have to overpay it by 1k a month the rules are no bank loans use of credit cards or useing my overdraft and I won’t cheat however I’ve just had to stump up 1600 quid for carpets for the girlfriends place that fucked up my strategy a bit top that off with my car insurance being due so I’ve sold them shares we re not meantioned so it’s not cheating the bet is for a larger amount than the yearly dividends due this year I bought the fuckers 8 and a half years ago apparently 

Best of luck. Being mortgage free sounds awesome.

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UnconventionalWisdom
9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Yeah i will probably sell today, rather than being greedy i was up 105% few days back 

Whilst nothing to do with gold i subscribed to RealVision and was watching a couple of the interviews when one mentioned a story about Isac Newton going broke from South Sea stocks after jumping back in, The story has kinda stuck in my head over the last days thinking about it a few times, also made me think about crypto and how that blew up and everyone was going mad buying 

 

Actually printed this off and now sits on my desk as a reminder 

 

CRD61-Asset-Isaac-Newton-Graph-v01.png.b06ed1100472c71a41bc09c2d0faeeed.png

There's a great YouTube set of 4/5 10min episodes on the south Sea bubble. 

 

Facinating. Really makes you think the dosbodder approach of not trusting those in power and going against the crowd embracing a corrupt system will pay off. 

 

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Best of luck. Being mortgage free sounds awesome.

It’s only a shitty terrace and there might have been a benifit that has not manifested itself yet in keeping a small mortgage on however I like a challenge I might get a bigger house next year saying that the crash has far has I’m concerned can now start

3 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

There's a great YouTube set of 4/5 10min episodes on the south Sea bubble. 

 

Facinating. Really makes you think the dosbodder approach of not trusting those in power and going against the crowd embracing a corrupt system will pay off. 

 

Was it worse than the tulip problem

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I’m just stunned how long they have kept the plates spinning for if I’m honest a lot of housing in stoke has still not got back to pre 2009 levels the guy who I bought my hovel off paid 18k more than I gave him for it 

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UnconventionalWisdom
2 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Was it worse than the tulip problem

Similar in terms of people thinking they would get rich speculating. This though had government involved so rather than people speculating, they were encouraged to do so. Buying shares in a company that would trade in South America. Problem was that Spain owned all the ports and would only allow one ship a year. But they used different methods to keep the stock price high-everuone saw their mates make money so got involved... Just like today's btl. 

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Castlevania
10 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

It’s only a shitty terrace and there might have been a benifit that has not manifested itself yet in keeping a small mortgage on however I like a challenge I might get a bigger house next year saying that the crash has far has I’m concerned can now start

It’s the element of freedom from having to pay rent. I hope you smash it. Then you can join us in buying dodgy silver mining companies or tell your boss to fuck off if he’s being a dick.

5 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Similar in terms of people thinking they would get rich speculating. This though had government involved so rather than people speculating, they were encouraged to do so. Buying shares in a company that would trade in South America. Problem was that Spain owned all the ports and would only allow one ship a year. But they used different methods to keep the stock price high-everuone saw their mates make money so got involved... Just like today's btl. 

Sounds more like bitcoin to me

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Well greed brought Scotland hundreds of years of servitude to England so that’s a lesson learnt I think btl is toast has well I’m just wondering how they will try and punish those who own a second home outright and rent the other out .at the moment the safest way of making your house pay for itself spears to be lodgers .

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Castlevania
4 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Well greed brought Scotland hundreds of years of servitude to England so that’s a lesson learnt I think btl is toast has well I’m just wondering how they will try and punish those who own a second home outright and rent the other out .at the moment the safest way of making your house pay for itself spears to be lodgers .

Yeah. If I owned a house I’d definitely have a lodger. As long as they’re not complete bellends you get someone to have a chat with and essentially free money.

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5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s the element of freedom from having to pay rent. I hope you smash it. Then you can join us in buying dodgy silver mining companies or tell your boss to fuck off if he’s being a dick.

Sounds more like bitcoin to me

Well if I had not have gone abroad twice in the last 20 months and spunked 7k on a car it would have taken less than 6 years on a single careworkers wages 3 years of that was minimum wage however i fell into the because I’m worth it trap it’s easily done and in all honesty I’m at my happiest geting pissed on Aldi 5% Larger chatting shit on the internet and watching crap films with the odd romantic interlude thrown in for good measure I basicly love being a tight bastard

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Talking Monkey
18 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Well if I had not have gone abroad twice in the last 20 months and spunked 7k on a car it would have taken less than 6 years on a single careworkers wages 3 years of that was minimum wage however i fell into the because I’m worth it trap it’s easily done and in all honesty I’m at my happiest geting pissed on Aldi 5% Larger chatting shit on the internet and watching crap films with the odd romantic interlude thrown in for good measure I basicly love being a tight bastard

Good on you Stokie, well done paying down the mortgage

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

Well if I had not have gone abroad twice in the last 20 months and spunked 7k on a car it would have taken less than 6 years on a single careworkers wages 3 years of that was minimum wage however i fell into the because I’m worth it trap it’s easily done and in all honesty I’m at my happiest geting pissed on Aldi 5% Larger chatting shit on the internet and watching crap films with the odd romantic interlude thrown in for good measure I basicly love being a tight bastard

As ive said before, Aldi and Lidl German lager is the nuts.

Well done reducing the house debt. You will be in a much stronger position going forward.(more lager)

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8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

tight bastard. hahahahah.

It realy pisses me off when I see young couples in the pub moaning they can’t even buy a 55k terrace yet both are working granted they might both be on minimum wage but it can be done but I’d happily see house prices crash 50 % to make it easier for them .i even fell out with my next door neighbour when he moved out and knocked on insuinating your poor ie only a care worker do you want my old furniture before I skip it I asked him where he was going to and how long he had rented it for he replyed xxxx and 17 years I told him maybe if you didn’t boast about your 40k a year job and your wife works on top used a bit of common sense and lived within your means then he might not have to leave to avoid a rent increase of 30 quid then the shit hit the fan he’ll he was winning like a bitch saying I’ve basicly bought this house for his landlord I basicly insinuated he was a fucking idiot for spunking his cash on shit

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leonardratso
12 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

It realy pisses me off when I see young couples in the pub moaning they can’t even buy a 55k terrace yet both are working granted they might both be on minimum wage but it can be done but I’d happily see house prices crash 50 % to make it easier for them .i even fell out with my next door neighbour when he moved out and knocked on insuinating your poor ie only a care worker do you want my old furniture before I skip it I asked him where he was going to and how long he had rented it for he replyed xxxx and 17 years I told him maybe if you didn’t boast about your 40k a year job and your wife works on top used a bit of common sense and lived within your means then he might not have to leave to avoid a rent increase of 30 quid then the shit hit the fan he’ll he was winning like a bitch saying I’ve basicly bought this house for his landlord I basicly insinuated he was a fucking idiot for spunking his cash on shit

yep, thats about the crooks of it.

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Bobthebuilder
3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

It realy pisses me off when I see young couples in the pub moaning they can’t even buy a 55k terrace yet both are working granted they might both be on minimum wage but it can be done but I’d happily see house prices crash 50 % to make it easier for them .i even fell out with my next door neighbour when he moved out and knocked on insuinating your poor ie only a care worker do you want my old furniture before I skip it I asked him where he was going to and how long he had rented it for he replyed xxxx and 17 years I told him maybe if you didn’t boast about your 40k a year job and your wife works on top used a bit of common sense and lived within your means then he might not have to leave to avoid a rent increase of 30 quid then the shit hit the fan he’ll he was winning like a bitch saying I’ve basicly bought this house for his landlord I basicly insinuated he was a fucking idiot for spunking his cash on shit

Yep, i know many people like that, even fookin worse attitude when they eventually buy an overpriced shitbox.

By the way Panther down 10% ish, still on for -25%?

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Inoperational Bumblebee
23 hours ago, leonardratso said:

good call, it will probably shoot to the moon now,  for no reason whatsoever. I was umming and arring over sla yesterday, wish id bought it now done nowt but go up today.

Ah well, be another one along in a minute.

I've been feeling the same watching INFA zoom back up...

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