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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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9 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Would seem UPS have lost or stolen my silver coins parcel from CoinInvest 

tenor.gif.67a8f0e5c59c92e3c10240a031198f75.gif

Was it supposed to come to your home, or a collection point?

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1 minute ago, MvR said:

Was it supposed to come to your home, or a collection point?

Home 

was delayed due to strikes in Germany but finailly got to my local depot and not updated for 5 days 

Called the local depot twice to try locate it no luck, the last call said maybe the label fell off O.o

Anyway emailed Coininvest yesterday they chased it up UPS apparently promised to delivery it, but the tracking now just says come back later will email them again tomorrow as that will be nearly 6 days at my local depot with no updates

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2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Home 

was delayed due to strikes in Germany but finailly got to my local depot and not updated for 5 days 

Called the local depot twice to try locate it no luck, the last call said maybe the label fell off O.o

Anyway emailed Coininvest yesterday they chased it up UPS apparently promised to delivery it, but the tracking now just says come back later will email them again tomorrow as that will be nearly 6 days at my local depot with no updates

Damn..  well, at least given it's presumed value and with Coininvest on the case, UPS should be motived to find it.  Annoying though!

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In the crypto world, BTC is on a very sharp trend upwards (BTH even more so). Too fast for any financial environment correlation, so other factors must be at play. Reasons range from Russia (when does it not?) to automated bots algo activity over certain key resistances. I'm not complaining in regards to my crypto holdings, but will be keeping a very close eye on BTC MACD. 

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9 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Lots of things in the mix here, incompetent management board, wasting money in wrong areas, possible Shell takeover, dividend suspension (I’m all for this to reduce debt and restructuring etc)

I think a lot of short positions will close if it heads down below £1.

Yes there’s risk but as been stated before on here, once the financial headwinds hit, then a lot of the smaller players will be wiped out and leave us at the mercy of the bigger fish for our ever increasing energy demands.

For me the risk at current prices is worth a small percentage allocation in my ISA.

I dont agree on incompetent management now (i do a few years ago),i think they have done the right things and set in place whats needed.Debt is down a lot and IF they can flog the nuclear power stations they might take it down to around £1.4 billion.Thats very low compared to their assets.Centrica might have £2 billion in cash flow a year to invest if they decide to run down their oil and gas assets,as i think they might.They have invested in some very nice areas,although very small for now.Hive is a very interesting part and i fully expect them to leverage that into many more areas.In home care alone it could prove very profitable.There is a risk they go under,there always is at the end of cycles ,but there is also potential to 3x 5x in price.Its pretty obvious big oil will be thinking about taking them over.They will have massive free cashflow for a decade yet,but they need to position more as the economy turns to electric.Shell made the first move with First Utility,and it wont be the last.If i was Shell i would buy Centrica now.Centrica are probably the best positioned for the electric car market,just not many see that yet.They have just brought in an exec who was a top guy at Nissan's electric car unit.Its only a small maybe,but maybe they have a unit that will prove very lucrative going forward.Iv about 4% of my portfolio in them,and in context they are down less than Go Ahead are up.Always pays to construct a portfolio with balance,just tilted to what should be the macro environment.

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leonardratso

so far, the only greens ive got are funds;

fundmith T class +40%

evestor portfolio 2 +10%

 BARINGS GBL AGRICULTURE +5%

 INVESCO INCOME UK Y ACC +5%

TB RIDING HOUSE GBL GOLD RES B  INC +8%

oh, and i bought up some SLA, thats up a few +2%

all other are down by small amounts and a couple a good wedge, but i trickle in and rarely bulk load anything, ive got time to wait so i havent rushed in, plus £37.68 doesnt divide up well (hahaha).

ETH is powering ahead(+10% in 2-3 days), but i just gamble there, wish id shoved my couple a hundred in LTC instead, thats up 30% in basically 2-3 days.

 

 

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Inoperational Bumblebee
4 hours ago, Sideysid said:

In the crypto world, BTC is on a very sharp trend upwards (BTH even more so). Too fast for any financial environment correlation, so other factors must be at play. Reasons range from Russia (when does it not?) to automated bots algo activity over certain key resistances. I'm not complaining in regards to my crypto holdings, but will be keeping a very close eye on BTC MACD. 

I'm suspicious of this $100M buy over three exchanges kicking it all off. I reckon it's been carried on by bots as the daily close was above the 200MA for the first time in just over a year. I suspect it was a deliberate ploy to increase price as volume had been consistent for some time, and approaching the 200MA i.e. possible to punch through into an area with no significant sell wall. That kind of purchase could have been slowly accumulated over time or bought OTC so as not to affect the price, but no, it was coordinated over Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. All long-standing euro-centric exchanges.

image.thumb.png.c0ca61f07897df42131afd57a3bad294.png

I don't really subscribe to a lot of TA other than nice round numbers that people seem to have a mental fixation on, but S/R makes a lot of sense to me as a self-fulfilling prophecy, and VPVR as it shows historical buying volume at a particular price level. I'd be surprised (based on very little analysis admittedly) if we get past $6k, so I'm tempted to start scaling in shorts slightly below. If not $6k, then the weekly close 50MA (currently just above $5700). I reckon there's a huge amount of bot trading which can only be based on TA, so I think it's worth taking it into consideration for crypto.

I did have a glance at the bitmexrekt twitter account (but there's way too many posts to look through), as I wondered if the continuation was also a bunch of shorts liquidating.

I've had sell orders triggered all the way up here but I've just missed another by about $25 so did it manually. I've not missed out on much (taken about 20% profit in 48 hours) but I can't help feeling there are some massive drops coming by the end of next week. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, which is why I only trade with half my stack... Unsure yet where I'm putting buy orders in though.

I'm calling bull trap.

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Cross rail another £3 billion over budget and 2 years late.. because they forgot about the points and stations.. 

How much do they pay these people.. 🙈

I’m going to my boss, based on intelligence levels U.K. plc.. I should be earning £8 million a year basic.. 

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13 minutes ago, macca said:

Cross rail another £3 billion over budget and 2 years late.. because they forgot about the points and stations.. 

How much do they pay these people.. 🙈

I’m going to my boss, based on intelligence levels U.K. plc.. I should be earning £8 million a year basic.. 

Ah you see, that's where you are going wrong...You are assuming salary is positively correlated with competence when in fact it is a negative correlation...just look at the evidence....CEO`s, bankers, uni VC`s...I would even include MP`s but they don't really get paid that much (but they do FA anyway!) :-)

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3 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Ah you see, that's where you are going wrong...You are assuming salary is positively correlated with competence when in fact it is a negative correlation...just look at the evidence....CEO`s, bankers, uni VC`s...I would even include MP`s but they don't really get paid that much (but they do FA anyway!) :-)

As far as I can tell, in the corporate world (as opposed to self made business leaders), skill, ability and intelligence are all secondary to hard work, Teflon shoulders and most importantly the ability to stand on their hind legs and broadcast corporate grade BS on command. They would refer to this as "leadership". 

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6 hours ago, Calcutta said:

What happens to the utilities when Corbyn wins a GE? 

I saw this issue raised on the Stocko board where they have a chap who is showing his high yield portfolio off. He said he wouldn't buy any utilities as he feared a Labour GE victory followed by renationalisation with shareholders not fully remunerated.

I bought a few Centrica on the 22nd Feb dip this year for 119p. A good buy, I thought! 

I know @DurhamBornis a long term Centrica bull. I wonder what his thoughts are on potential renationalisation?

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10 minutes ago, billfunk said:

I saw this issue raised on the Stocko board where they have a chap who is showing his high yield portfolio off. He said he wouldn't buy any utilities as he feared a Labour GE victory followed by renationalisation with shareholders not fully remunerated.

I bought a few Centrica on the 22nd Feb dip this year for 119p. A good buy, I thought! 

I know @DurhamBornis a long term Centrica bull. I wonder what his thoughts are on potential renationalisation?

Cheers. The whole concept of it is completely alien to me, I don't know if he'd have to pay more than market rate, if the price would collapse or rise, if it just gets seized and  fuck the shareholders,  can't get my head around it. 

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11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Cheers. The whole concept of it is completely alien to me, I don't know if he'd have to pay more than market rate, if the price would collapse or rise, if it just gets seized and  fuck the shareholders,  can't get my head around it.  

Its a potential can of worms, but there are certain problems that make it more difficult than simply nationalising.  Shareholders are not just big hedge funds, you also have small investors and Pensions, if you skimp on the price then both (voting) groups are not going to be happy when they find out they have been short changed.  Then there is the South Africa/Mines problem, where if the government nationalises the mines it gets the blame when miners die or jobs are lost and not the evil companies.  Does Corbyn really want to choose between raising prices in the winter or running out of gas and killing loads of OAP's when companies like CNA can take the blame for hikes?

That's before you get into the finding the £Bn's from the slightly broke treasury....

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1 hour ago, billfunk said:

I saw this issue raised on the Stocko board where they have a chap who is showing his high yield portfolio off. He said he wouldn't buy any utilities as he feared a Labour GE victory followed by renationalisation with shareholders not fully remunerated.

I bought a few Centrica on the 22nd Feb dip this year for 119p. A good buy, I thought! 

I know @DurhamBornis a long term Centrica bull. I wonder what his thoughts are on potential renationalisation?

I never consider those sort of things when investing.I try to make sure im balanced.If Corbyn got in i expect sterling would be toast and other investments would do well.I buy in ladders and have no interest outside of the buy triggers what price a stock is.I think most of the stocks im buying are worth x3 their prices at the end of a reflation cycle + dividends,and thats minimum.If a few fail thats fine.A balanced portfolio is the key as always.

In short id ignore price caps,Labour governments and sentiment and look at where we are going.

Take Hive,

https://www.hivehome.com/services/connected-care-hive-link

This is going to be a huge growth area in the future,and i mean huge.If Centrica can keep the lead in this it should become a very profitable side to the business.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/16/centrica-to-join-london-blockchain-trial-for-alternative-billing/

Centrica have world leading positions in companies at the cutting edge of block chain tech for distributed energy.Its likely this will be a huge area in the future.

https://www.compelo.com/energy/news/centrica-alcoa-guleslettene/

This is another huge growth area.Green energy tends to need very strong balancing skills and the above shows Centrica's strengths in this area.In a reflation these skills will be worth a lot more.

https://driivz.com/

Another company Centrica holds a big stake in and one that could become the EV charging partner of choice.This is likely to become the VISA of car charging and stand between the networks and the consumer.

 

Now none of the above might make it.Centrica might go down the pan before they do,or they might fall to such a level the debt holders take control and equity is wiped out.There is,and always will be risk with equity investment.

However i want access to those areas for the next cycle,and i dont want to be investing in start ups so Centrica it is.I have no interest in the share price today,i do hope its £5+ in 8 years,and still exists.If not im sure other parts of my portfolio will make up for it.In the short term though i do wish they could flog the nuclear power stations.Getting rid of them is likely the main short term focus.

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13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I never consider those sort of things when investing.I try to make sure im balanced.If Corbyn got in i expect sterling would be toast and other investments would do well.I buy in ladders and have no interest outside of the buy triggers what price a stock is.I think most of the stocks im buying are worth x3 their prices at the end of a reflation cycle + dividends,and thats minimum.If a few fail thats fine.A balanced portfolio is the key as always.

I am using excessive diversification as a defence for my ignorance. My new year's allowance will go on between 10 and 20 companies, to add to the 7 I already have. I guess I see each of my picks as a gamble. When I have a bit more money in I will consider laddering. In fact I am wondering about doubling my stack in Centrica if it hits 100p.

Anyway thanks for your thoughts, as ever they are valuable to a beginner such as myself.

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Alright, stupid question number two for today...what happens to our savings and investments if we join the euro?

I remember the Dutch etc kicking off as prices went up when they converted to the Mark but no idea of they were fleeced of the family silver as well.

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29 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Alright, stupid question number two for today...what happens to our savings and investments if we join the euro?

I remember the Dutch etc kicking off as prices went up when they converted to the Mark but no idea of they were fleeced of the family silver as well.

Euro wont exist.

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leonardratso

i reckon we should convert to zimbabwe dollars, its the only way ill ever be a millionaire.... albeit a starving millionaire.

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Just some other info I had saved on Centrica's Hive

Hive – Hive is a smart home technology provider to help homeowners save on their energy bills with smart products, such as thermostats, lightbulbs, sensors, plugs and a range of other products such as cameras and leak detection sensors providing the user with the opportunity to manage and receive alerts via their smartphones. Centrica says it’s planning to roll out a series of smart packages in the UK for these Hive products, As of May 2018 Hive had over 1,000,000 customers.

Centrica and HAX have also announced plans to develop new smart solutions to benefit the growing ageing population as the next phase of Hives ambition. Centrica’s newest system “Hive Link” allows families and friends to keeps track of elderly family members using sensors on doors, cupboards and appliances such as kettles, The program is designed to learn their routine and notify loved ones if they deviate from it.

Also South East Water has partnered with Hive to trail leak sensors with 800 customers and if successful it could be extended to South East Waters 2,200,000 customers.

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Bobthebuilder
21 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just some other info I had saved on Centrica's Hive

Hive – Hive is a smart home technology provider to help homeowners save on their energy bills with smart products, such as thermostats, lightbulbs, sensors, plugs and a range of other products such as cameras and leak detection sensors providing the user with the opportunity to manage and receive alerts via their smartphones. Centrica says it’s planning to roll out a series of smart packages in the UK for these Hive products, As of May 2018 Hive had over 1,000,000 customers.

Centrica and HAX have also announced plans to develop new smart solutions to benefit the growing ageing population as the next phase of Hives ambition. Centrica’s newest system “Hive Link” allows families and friends to keeps track of elderly family members using sensors on doors, cupboards and appliances such as kettles, The program is designed to learn their routine and notify loved ones if they deviate from it.

Also South East Water has partnered with Hive to trail leak sensors with 800 customers and if successful it could be extended to South East Waters 2,200,000 customers.

Hive has a bit of catching up to do compared to Nest.

Nest are currently taking over the heating controls business, its a much better bit of kit.

British Gas are also falling behind in terms of engineers at present. Subbing out boiler fits and repairs.

I drip feed monthly into Centrica but not for Hive reasons.

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Virgil Caine
11 hours ago, Calcutta said:

What happens to the utilities when Corbyn wins a GE? 

If we stay in the EU he would find nationalisation almost impossible under current European law, certainly at a price his government could afford. They would have to pay the full market rate and there would likely be legal challenges that would add costs on top. The FT quoted an estimate of £124 billion just for the six big power utilities alone.

https://www.ft.com/content/90c0f8e8-17fd-11e8-9e9c-25c814761640

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Quote

Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Our research tells us that about 74 percent of millennials, the single largest cohort of homebuyers, now report having to cut back on other categories of spending to afford their housing costs.”

The road is starting to run out, the wealth effect of high house prices is over time being replaced by a wealth drain as high house prices suck the life out of the real economy.  Deflation beckons.

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Samsung Electronics sees a 60% fall in profits
The downbeat guidance is the latest sign of woes hitting global electronics manufacturers as chipmakers have been hit by falling demand and rising stock inventories following a slump in smartphone sales.

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