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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Samsung Electronics sees a 60% fall in profits
The downbeat guidance is the latest sign of woes hitting global electronics manufacturers as chipmakers have been hit by falling demand and rising stock inventories following a slump in smartphone sales.

Wow 60%....and yet the market indexes keep buoyant and rising...crazy.

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20 hours ago, billfunk said:

I am using excessive diversification as a defence for my ignorance.

LOL I'm in a similar position and am also new to the game.  I'm starting to look at some of the metrics eg P/E, cashflow, debt, past performance etc etc to try to make some kind of educated guesses.

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1 minute ago, janch said:

LOL I'm in a similar position and am also new to the game.  I'm starting to look at some of the metrics eg P/E, cashflow, debt, past performance etc etc to try to make some kind of educated guesses.

I would recommend Stockopedia. It makes all the fundamentals clear and assigns its own score to each share. I notice even some of the Biotech and Resource gamblers use it. 

If you do want to sign up, go to the Naked Trader's site and get 25% off.

I sound like i'm on a commission, but I always believe that recommending good services is good for the market.

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A few are having a bit of a shit day pretty crazy how much they have dropped so far i will buy more soon for longterm holding (I dont hold Stage Coach yet)

Vodafone -2.6%, Stagecoach -6%, Royal Mail -4% and Centrica -1.96%

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20 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

If we stay in the EU he would find nationalisation almost impossible under current European law, certainly at a price his government could afford. They would have to pay the full market rate and there would likely be legal challenges that would add costs on top. The FT quoted an estimate of £124 billion just for the six big power utilities alone.

https://www.ft.com/content/90c0f8e8-17fd-11e8-9e9c-25c814761640

The dopey cunt will keep us stuck in the EU then print the cash before we convert to euros. It's fucking textbook, bankrupt the country, collapse the currency, invite so many Labour voters to move here we can never get rid of them. 

Pile into CNA, soon as it's bought convert to euros before the deadline, last one out switches the lights off.

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On ‎04‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 15:51, DurhamBorn said:

I never consider those sort of things when investing.I try to make sure im balanced.If Corbyn got in i expect sterling would be toast and other investments would do well.I buy in ladders and have no interest outside of the buy triggers what price a stock is.I think most of the stocks im buying are worth x3 their prices at the end of a reflation cycle + dividends,and thats minimum.If a few fail thats fine.A balanced portfolio is the key as always.

In short id ignore price caps,Labour governments and sentiment and look at where we are going.

DB, can I ask -  are you still intending to buy 'TIP5 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD  this month? (I found this particular etf on HL, and believe its same one you mentioned couple months back). I think you mentioned holding until inflation began to show up later this year?

I also found the following two tips etf's, but despite reading their kid docs I am still none the wiser as to whether they are better/worse choice than the above etf: 'TP05 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD(GBP)'  and  'ITPS iShares II plc Capital USD TIPS'                        

 

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Inoperational Bumblebee
20 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, can I ask -  are you still intending to buy 'TIP5 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD  this month? (I found this particular etf on HL, and believe its same one you mentioned couple months back). I think you mentioned holding until inflation began to show up later this year?

I also found the following two tips etf's, but despite reading their kid docs I am still none the wiser as to whether they are better/worse choice than the above etf: 'TP05 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD(GBP)'  and  'ITPS iShares II plc Capital USD TIPS'                       

I've been buying ITPS, as the effective duration is longer than TIP5 so inflation figures will have a more marked effect on its price (both ways!)
I'd be surprised if you can buyTIP5 if TP05 is available, as it's the same thing just denominated in USD rather than GBP; the underlying holdings are USD-denominated so you'll get the currency effects too if this is unhedged (which I believe is the case). When I tried to buy IDTL previously I could only buy IBTL, but it's irrelevant as it's unhedged. In fact I'd say it's better as there are no forex fees from your broker - there obviously will be somewhere, but economies of scale suggest it will be much cheaper if done inside a big fund, rather just for you.

This is not a recommendation or financial advice; do your own research...

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On ‎06‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 14:23, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I've been buying ITPS, as the effective duration is longer than TIP5 so inflation figures will have a more marked effect on its price (both ways!)
I'd be surprised if you can buyTIP5 if TP05 is available, as it's the same thing just denominated in USD rather than GBP; the underlying holdings are USD-denominated so you'll get the currency effects too if this is unhedged (which I believe is the case). When I tried to buy IDTL previously I could only buy IBTL, but it's irrelevant as it's unhedged. In fact I'd say it's better as there are no forex fees from your broker - there obviously will be somewhere, but economies of scale suggest it will be much cheaper if done inside a big fund, rather just for you.

This is not a recommendation or financial advice; do your own research...

thanks IB, ill do some more research before buying, but ITPS sounds best one for me.

When you say 'duration' I was bit confused because thought these type of bonds didn't have a time horizon/redeemable date like ordinary 5/10/25 year bonds have? 

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On 05/04/2019 at 17:38, JMD said:

DB, can I ask -  are you still intending to buy 'TIP5 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD  this month? (I found this particular etf on HL, and believe its same one you mentioned couple months back). I think you mentioned holding until inflation began to show up later this year?

I also found the following two tips etf's, but despite reading their kid docs I am still none the wiser as to whether they are better/worse choice than the above etf: 'TP05 IShares II Plc USD TIPS 0-5 UCITS USD(GBP)'  and  'ITPS iShares II plc Capital USD TIPS'                        

 

 

Yes i am,though my main play is on the PM sector,silver miners mostly.I think sterling will rally 15% when we leave the EU so thats a bit of a worry in dollar assets.

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i am,though my main play is on the PM sector,silver miners mostly.I think sterling will rally 15% when we leave the EU so thats a bit of a worry in dollar assets. 

thanks DB, my time horizon for holding these bonds would be +/- 12 months as in terms of pound/dollar currency risk (which you rightly point out as risk), I think EU will grant us that 'flexit' they are now talking about, and which probably effectively means yet more parliamentary-posturing, before the conservative party finally get another chance to ditch T May.  

 

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Inoperational Bumblebee
7 hours ago, JMD said:

thanks IB, ill do some more research before buying, but ITPS sounds best one for me.

When you say 'duration' I was bit confused because thought these type of bonds didn't have a time horizon/redeemable date like ordinary 5/10/25 year bonds have? 

It's effective duration of the TIPS held within. These funds buy proper TIPS and as I understand it, when they expire and they get the capital back, they just buy more. It's an ongoing bond ladder, and the effective duration is the average bond duration of what is held.

Any change in the resale value of the bond portfolio overall is reflected in the fund price. You get the dividends, the effects of any change in the resale value, and the currency effects for non-GBP-denominated bonds held in the fund. The fund itself is effectively perpetual even if the bonds within it are not.

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leonardratso
13 minutes ago, spunko said:

Fucking hell. I remember whe @TheCountOfNowhere was posting about it slipping below 100. That's some Bitcoin bubble fall from grace.

makes bitcoin look sensible and stable.

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On ‎08‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 00:48, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

It's effective duration of the TIPS held within. These funds buy proper TIPS and as I understand it, when they expire and they get the capital back, they just buy more. It's an ongoing bond ladder, and the effective duration is the average bond duration of what is held.

Any change in the resale value of the bond portfolio overall is reflected in the fund price. You get the dividends, the effects of any change in the resale value, and the currency effects for non-GBP-denominated bonds held in the fund. The fund itself is effectively perpetual even if the bonds within it are not.

thanks IB, can I ask - is your plan to sell when TIPS top out (difficult to gauge exactly when that is I know), which presumably will happen after inflation shows up causing the TIPS funds to begin to run? Or will you be holding medium/long term?   

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On 07/04/2019 at 18:11, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i am,though my main play is on the PM sector,silver miners mostly.I think sterling will rally 15% when we leave the EU so thats a bit of a worry in dollar assets.

Regarding the Silver price DB, I did almost buy some more silver miners last week but held off due to expecting slightly lower prices. I am still anticipating one good opportunity  in April to top up the silver miners, perhaps that is wishful thinking..  How do you see it?

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South Africa’s largest gold producer Sibanye-Stillwater said that it would raise $130m in a share issue as it seeks to end a months-long strike at critical mines.

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Bobthebuilder

One of the shares that have been mentioned on here by DB i think ,is Standard Life, up approx 9% since then, well impressive.

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Castlevania
2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

South Africa’s largest gold producer Sibanye-Stillwater said that it would raise $130m in a share issue as it seeks to end a months-long strike at critical mines.

Ouch!

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Inoperational Bumblebee
8 hours ago, JMD said:

thanks IB, can I ask - is your plan to sell when TIPS top out (difficult to gauge exactly when that is I know), which presumably will happen after inflation shows up causing the TIPS funds to begin to run? Or will you be holding medium/long term?   

It is meant to be a short-term hold only for me, 3 or 4 months max. to benefit from the reaction to a sudden increase in US inflation. Playing it by ear though.
I intended the same with IBTL and I've held them longer as we've not seen a QE splurge yet. The coupon (I think this is the correct term for bond yield?) is quite welcome  on the chunk I have, and the currency hedge against GBP shitness has also been rather beneficial for my portfolio. I was only drip-feeding into ITPS until today, when I liquidated half my IBTL (a few months wages worth) to move into it tomorrow.

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

South Africa’s largest gold producer Sibanye-Stillwater said that it would raise $130m in a share issue as it seeks to end a months-long strike at critical mines.

In which case this 7% may well be oversold. It's not like this strike is news to anyone... Hopefully we'll get a nice rebound tomorrow.

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

One of the shares that have been mentioned on here by DB i think ,is Standard Life, up approx 9% since then, well impressive.

borat 'i like'

image.png.fe1469718c8394eea7d019019494254c.png

 

BAGLAR barings agriculture seems to be on a mini bull run as well, their main components look like potash producers and tractor makers;

image.thumb.png.cb3a566e8ae65af1ef08a14eba78a278.png

Memory's not great, but i seem to remember nutrien ingesting a major potash company last year (USA).

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10 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

In which case this 7% may well be oversold. It's not like this strike is news to anyone... Hopefully we'll get a nice rebound tomorrow.

Market was probably expecting a mines reopened RNS which is why it was soaring before xD

I'm pleased that ANC has become a little more pro mining with the new president, although its still high risk its not sky high like before.

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14 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

It is meant to be a short-term hold only for me, 3 or 4 months max. to benefit from the reaction to a sudden increase in US inflation. Playing it by ear though.
I intended the same with IBTL and I've held them longer as we've not seen a QE splurge yet. The coupon (I think this is the correct term for bond yield?) is quite welcome  on the chunk I have, and the currency hedge against GBP shitness has also been rather beneficial for my portfolio. I was only drip-feeding into ITPS until today, when I liquidated half my IBTL (a few months wages worth) to move into it tomorrow.

thanks IB, i've piled into ITPS using my ISA allowance as leaving lots in cash seems pointless ...a risk perhaps, but lets hope my exuberance is rewarded!  My plan is to sell out as US inflation takes off, and redirect etf profits into PM's or reflation stocks. 

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