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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Bricks & Mortar

DXY up to 97.5 region today.  I sat for a couple hours this afternoon, watching it rise, and noting every time it put on a couple points,  the mining shares I was watching (yamana, endeavour, couer, wesdome) seemed to go down correspondingly.  Can anyone explain the relationship?

The predicted, (by DB and his friend), buying opportunity for miners is materialising, with some 25% down from recent peaks.  The prediction was DXY to 98, so might be a wee bit to go, but it was close enough for me to dip my toe in Couer and Yamana today.

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31 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

DXY up to 97.5 region today.  I sat for a couple hours this afternoon, watching it rise, and noting every time it put on a couple points,  the mining shares I was watching (yamana, endeavour, couer, wesdome) seemed to go down correspondingly.  Can anyone explain the relationship?

The predicted, (by DB and his friend), buying opportunity for miners is materialising, with some 25% down from recent peaks.  The prediction was DXY to 98, so might be a wee bit to go, but it was close enough for me to dip my toe in Couer and Yamana today.

Gold is priced is dollars so if the dollar gets stronger and goes up versus the basket of other main currencies, you can’t buy so much gold per dollar. So the gold price goes down.

Amazing watching things play out. DB you’ve been a marvel and it’s so interesting to watch. 

Re Centrica I don’t think it’s a short term play. And I do think more and more electrification is on the way...

DYOR etc but it really boils down to if you’re looking to flip it short term or hold for a longer term. I’m with DB on the cycle I am seeing things change everywhere. 

 

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Bricks & Mortar
4 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Gold is priced is dollars

Ah.  So simple.  I had myself in knots thinking the companies had mines in the Americas, so were paying wages in $ and related currencys...  I was thinking on the wrong side.

Hats off to DB and his friend.

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Any views on UK wage inflation? There seems to be a lot in the statistics (national minimum benchmark for a start) and I can only think in certain areas of the country firms margins will be crushed. 

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StrugglingMillennial

Slightly of the current topic but im after a new share dealer as ive had enough of the current one. Im not a frequent dealer so cheap and cheerful should be enough.

Any suggestions?

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1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Slightly of the current topic but im after a new share dealer as ive had enough of the current one. Im not a frequent dealer so cheap and cheerful should be enough.

Any suggestions?

I use IG.com for my current self select ISA.  £8-10 trades ( £15 for US shares I seem to recall?)  and no annual ISA management fee.  They have great charts, particularly in their spread betting section.

I'm thinking of using ii.co.uk  for this year's allowance and possibly a SIPP. They charge a quarterly fee for the ISA, but this can be offset against trading commissions, and the SIPP annual fee is cheaper than IG - £100 vs £230 ish.  Also ii.co.uk seems to offer a slightly wider choice of investments than IG,  in particular Canadian shares, which is useful in the mining space.

Who are you using at the moment?

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1 hour ago, MvR said:

I use IG.com for my current self select ISA.  £8-10 trades ( £15 for US shares I seem to recall?)  and no annual ISA management fee.  They have great charts, particularly in their spread betting section.

I'm thinking of using ii.co.uk  for this year's allowance and possibly a SIPP. They charge a quarterly fee for the ISA, but this can be offset against trading commissions, and the SIPP annual fee is cheaper than IG - £100 vs £230 ish.  Also ii.co.uk seems to offer a slightly wider choice of investments than IG,  in particular Canadian shares, which is useful in the mining space.

Who are you using at the moment?

ii have just changed their fees, now have to pay £9.99 a month which includes £7.99 trading credit I believe, so not as good as it was, although trading costs have been lowered too.

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StrugglingMillennial
10 hours ago, MvR said:

I use IG.com for my current self select ISA.  £8-10 trades ( £15 for US shares I seem to recall?)  and no annual ISA management fee.  They have great charts, particularly in their spread betting section.

I'm thinking of using ii.co.uk  for this year's allowance and possibly a SIPP. They charge a quarterly fee for the ISA, but this can be offset against trading commissions, and the SIPP annual fee is cheaper than IG - £100 vs £230 ish.  Also ii.co.uk seems to offer a slightly wider choice of investments than IG,  in particular Canadian shares, which is useful in the mining space.

Who are you using at the moment?

I was using Equiniti, Kind of fell into using them through the job i had at the time.

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

I was using Equiniti, Kind of fell into using them through the job i had at the time.

im actually fairly happy with my lloyds dealer, its basically a rebadged halifax trading platform, having said that ;

1.dealing charge=£11 per stock, goes down to £7 if you do more than 7 per month

2.£15 for a american/canadian stocks

3.funds = £1.50 per trade, but ive found that by including stock buying in regular (ie once  or monthly) buying then i only get charged £1.50 per trade, dont know if its a site fault or deliberate, has the down side that i cant buy straight away, but can buy like 4 times a month on DD dates for £1.50 per trade, im topping up SLA and SGC every month for £1.50 each. I still have to try this with american stocks, might work for them as well? Anyway i use this regular trickle in to buy like barings agric and swerso etc, so £1.50 per month each.

4.£20 platform fee per 6 months

5.reasonable coverage of stocks/funds, a few i cant find, but most are there.

Got some down sides, but not enough for me to bother moving.

 

 

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leonardratso

hmm, looks like equinti does something similar;

Buy shares from just £1.75 per stock, per trade using Regular Investment or Dividend Reinvestment - click here for the full list of stocks available under these options.

Standard Investment Account dealing from just £12.50 per trade

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Inoperational Bumblebee

 

22 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Slightly of the current topic but im after a new share dealer as ive had enough of the current one. Im not a frequent dealer so cheap and cheerful should be enough.

Any suggestions?

Iweb: £25 one off opening fee, no ongoing charges. £5 a trade. ISA available.

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On 17/04/2019 at 19:15, Democorruptcy said:

Postie mate of mine reckons 8,000 jobs could be going at RMG to be announced in May. Not sackings, people won't be replaced when they leave/retire etc.

He also said they are trying to bring forward the next USO review. If ever they manage to reduce deliveries from 6 to 5 days the cost savings will be immense.

 

I think that USO review is the big one,iv been eyeing that myself.Im not sure on the 6 days to 5 due to parcels.Most retailers want the full coverage.However they might be able to drop a day in more rural areas.The main thing however is inflating prices quicker than wages.Thats where the free cash is or them.That 8000 figure would tie in.I also think they might introduce new services.Not sure what,but there are lots delivered that they dont do,like prescriptions etc.

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On 17/04/2019 at 08:22, BearyBear said:

CNA is in a 5 years downtrend making new lows nearly every day for the last 2 months. Better not touch.

If they manage to offload the Nuclear stake fill your boots.Centrica have stakes in huge growth areas and might even be world leaders in things like block chain energy markets.They are having to structure at the end of a difficult cycle,but might not be far off being the price setter soon.Of course a max of 4% of a portfolio just in case they went under before the value is surfaced.I dont really care where the price goes until around 2027 when i expect if it hasnt gone bust,or taken over it will be a lot higher.

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On 18/04/2019 at 22:02, Bricks & Mortar said:

DXY up to 97.5 region today.  I sat for a couple hours this afternoon, watching it rise, and noting every time it put on a couple points,  the mining shares I was watching (yamana, endeavour, couer, wesdome) seemed to go down correspondingly.  Can anyone explain the relationship?

The predicted, (by DB and his friend), buying opportunity for miners is materialising, with some 25% down from recent peaks.  The prediction was DXY to 98, so might be a wee bit to go, but it was close enough for me to dip my toe in Couer and Yamana today.

Il be buying miners from the first week in May each week until June.I expect them to start to trend then.Yamana and Endeavour Silver will be two.I like the deal Yamana has just done.Likely someone will take them out at some stage 70% above the current price (Agnico?).Very pleased the sector sold off as expected.

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Talking Monkey
10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il be buying miners from the first week in May each week until June.I expect them to start to trend then.Yamana and Endeavour Silver will be two.I like the deal Yamana has just done.Likely someone will take them out at some stage 70% above the current price (Agnico?).Very pleased the sector sold off as expected.

On another note Db there are more and more articles talking about a recession not coming until late 2020 if not 2021, I just don't see how the plates can be kept spinning till then, though anything is possible I suppose. In terms of the big leg down in the markets do you still see that happening later this year

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Noallegiance
20 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

My initial and uneducated response is as follows:

Ahem.....

Are these cunts fucking nuts?

So when nobody has any cash left and everyone's on e-money, a relentless march insues into ever-decreasing negative interest rates resulting in even more worthless-than-fiat e-money accelerating alongside the need to earn earn earn so we can spend spend spend then borrow borrow borrow...

What can we replace this failed money system with, chaps?

Ooh, ooh I know this one! An even more fucktarded idea which is really more of the same but on hyper-steroids and we'll put 'e' infront of it so it sounds all modern and hip-hop-happening!

Yep. Sounds like a credible plan.

#publish

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Lightscribe
9 hours ago, Sound Money said:

Bitcoin 😎

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-signals-readiness-to-combine-steps-if-more-stimulus-needed-idUKKCN1RZ05H

Indeed. The ideas have now run out.

The ever increasing drive for more consumerism with both parents working in the 90’s-00’s, then taken over with mass migration once that had source was tapped out, which I think Japan is being put under pressure to implement.

This is the one sticking point I have. Will we ever have a high interest rate scenario again to save the major currencies from inflation? Or will they print and print until fiat becomes worthless, as mass consumer defaults in failing to pay debt back would bring down the economy anyway?

In a SHTF mad max scenario, yes crypto would be worthless. But with a finite supply and the removal for the need of the corrupt banking system I consider it a mistake to regard the likes of BTC as ‘made up’ money. It’s no more made up than the promise note in your wallet.

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2 hours ago, Sideysid said:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-signals-readiness-to-combine-steps-if-more-stimulus-needed-idUKKCN1RZ05H

Indeed. The ideas have now run out.

The ever increasing drive for more consumerism with both parents working in the 90’s-00’s, then taken over with mass migration once that had source was tapped out, which I think Japan is being put under pressure to implement.

This is the one sticking point I have. Will we ever have a high interest rate scenario again to save the major currencies from inflation? Or will they print and print until fiat becomes worthless, as mass consumer defaults in failing to pay debt back would bring down the economy anyway?

In a SHTF mad max scenario, yes crypto would be worthless. But with a finite supply and the removal for the need of the corrupt banking system I consider it a mistake to regard the likes of BTC as ‘made up’ money. It’s no more made up than the promise note in your wallet.

I think you have`hit the nail on the head`...previously my thoughts were `people are crazy to pay for made-up money`, but it's no different to FIAT, and in both cases it is only worth something whilst people have confidence in it and continue to trade I.e pay for goods/labour.The difference is that at the moment Governments have control of the former, hence why they are trying to destroy (through sentiment) or gain control of the latter.

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Bricks & Mortar
13 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Are these cunts fucking nuts? 

" This dual local currency system would allow the central bank to implement as negative an interest rate as necessary for countering a recession, without triggering any large-scale substitutions into cash. "

How about substitutions into gold,  silver, bitcoin, or locally tradeable barter tokens.

As they proceed with their monetary fuckery for the sake of negative couple percent interest, they'll force an sizeable chunk of gdp off the books and into alternative currencies - that the taxman doesn't necessarily know about.

I'm basically only working to build a small amount of wealth.  The government can't make me work for subsistence for as long as they keep handing subsistence to lazy cunts fo free.

EDIT:  Typed this last night, posted this morning, and can see its on the same lines as 2 comments above, which i only saw after.

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That article I posted was attached to a tweet saying similar "Maybe we should buy some more gold and silver"

I used to think interest rates have to go up but over the last few years the more and more I read about the amount debt in the world personal, business and government I just can never see them going up any time soon

It's sad really the state of things...

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