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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

" This dual local currency system would allow the central bank to implement as negative an interest rate as necessary for countering a recession, without triggering any large-scale substitutions into cash. "

How about substitutions into gold,  silver, bitcoin, or locally tradeable barter tokens.

As they proceed with their monetary fuckery for the sake of negative couple percent interest, they'll force an sizeable chunk of gdp off the books and into alternative currencies - that the taxman doesn't necessarily know about.

I'm basically only working to build a small amount of wealth.  The government can't make me work for subsistence for as long as they keep handing subsistence to lazy cunts fo free.

EDIT:  Typed this last night, posted this morning, and can see its on the same lines as 2 comments above, which i only saw after.

A similar "dual monetary system" used to be implemented, probably more by accident than design, in all countries of the former communist block. You'd have an official currency of the given country, let it be Polish Zloty, Bulgarian Lev, Hungarian Forint, official means of payment, equivalent of "e-money". And then you had King Dollar, which you couldn't pay your taxes with or spend in any shop except for a designated few, but which - for some inexplicable reason - everybody wanted, including the government itself. You could exchange your dollars for spendable money (but usually not the other way round) in a bank at an official rate or you could exchange it for local money, good and services on the black market and easily get 10, 20, 50 times more bang for your literal buck.

If that got implemented again, we could see "official" and "market" rates for cash diverging massively, or people would start using other means of payments that are less manipulated. Not necessarily precious metals but possibly other currencies.

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45 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

That article I posted was attached to a tweet saying similar "Maybe we should buy some more gold and silver"

I used to think interest rates have to go up but over the last few years the more and more I read about the amount debt in the world personal, business and government I just can never see them going up any time soon

It's sad really the state of things...

Rates up or inflation up is the same thing,it pulls down purchasing power.The debt deflation already in motion is caused by margins being destroyed by input costs rising so much.Once things unfold governments will print too fast and the lag will see US long bonds start to fall and the yield rise.Thats where rates will go up first i expect.Council tax is £1480 in my home town on a band A.Thats the same as my mortgage was when i bought my first house there.

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HOC and FRES starting to look very interesting again, they are the last pieces of my portfolio for a hopeful run in the PM's.  Hoc's potential long term cup and handle could complete in June which ties in nicely with @DurhamBorn predictions.

Not long to go now to find out if we are right IMO.

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5 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

" This dual local currency system would allow the central bank to implement as negative an interest rate as necessary for countering a recession, without triggering any large-scale substitutions into cash. "

How about substitutions into gold,  silver, bitcoin, or locally tradeable barter tokens.

As they proceed with their monetary fuckery for the sake of negative couple percent interest, they'll force an sizeable chunk of gdp off the books and into alternative currencies - that the taxman doesn't necessarily know about.

I'm basically only working to build a small amount of wealth.  The government can't make me work for subsistence for as long as they keep handing subsistence to lazy cunts fo free.

EDIT:  Typed this last night, posted this morning, and can see its on the same lines as 2 comments above, which i only saw after.

I think the important point that you demonstrate here (and one I have seen in increasing measure on a number of forums) is one of changing sentiment, where people are now so disenfranchised with the system they are `opting out` by changing their lifestyle/consumerism and working at a level to avoid paying any/minimal taxation...a form of financial anarchy.

I also wonder if confidence in FIAT will get to such a low level that people will go back to bartering or another form of social currency.

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Agent ZigZag
20 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

HOC and FRES starting to look very interesting again, they are the last pieces of my portfolio for a hopeful run in the PM's.  Hoc's potential long term cup and handle could complete in June which ties in nicely with @DurhamBorn predictions.

Not long to go now to find out if we are right IMO.

Fresnillo still in a down channel but most defo on my watchlist

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38 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Fresnillo still in a down channel but most defo on my watchlist 

Posted just in time for Gold/Silver to receive another bash downwards!

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2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Bloody torture watching gold and silver

I’ve 2 cans of Guinness in the fridge for if Gold hits 1250. 

Watching now...

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Agent ZigZag
2 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

It's on sale! B|

Nearly there but just not yet. Gran Columbia a good bell weather Im also watching carefully. 

 

Is anyone got an opinion on Agri stocks, uranium

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53 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Is anyone got an opinion on Agri stocks, uranium

I've held URA since 2016 and it is down 1.26% since then. Long term I'm bullish but i felt the same in 2016.

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1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Is anyone got an opinion on Agri stocks, uranium

There's a report on the low uranium prices, over-reliance on foreign imports from adversarial countries, and struggling domestic producers which Trump is looking at and will be responding to in the next 90 days.. ( well, 80 ish now).  He could potentially increase tariffs on uranium imports, or force US uranium consumers to source a certain amount from domestic producers like Uranium Energy Corp.

Overall the aim is to support domestic producers for national security reasons, so there's a reasonable chance he'll do something like this, which should be good for any US based producers.  I've got a small position in UEC myself. 

If other friendly countries are included in the quota, it could help companies like Cameco and Denison Mining too. ( my two other uranium holdings )

https://www.rollcall.com/news/whitehouse/trump-weighs-action-uranium-imports

 

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6 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

It's on sale! B|

Managed to get a job lot of a few pre-1920 silver three pence the other day not too far off spot price to add to my daughters collection.

I can only think back in those days, people would have been checking their change after 1920 when the silver content was reduced by 50%!

Probably the start of TPTB devaluation of our currency into the farce that we find ourselves today. At least in the US they lasted until the 1960s.

938961E6-734B-4B7F-9F3E-AA54B04BF0C9.jpeg

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NogintheNog
15 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:
  19 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Bloody torture watching gold and silver

 

8 hours ago, Sideysid said:
  14 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

It's on sale! B|

I have a friend I've known for the last 10 years or so who is sat in cash and gold after selling a house pre GFC 2007. It has been a painful experience for him watching house prices climb out above his selling point, gold dropping since 2011 and cash being eroded by inflation. I remember him being very sceptical when I was buying BP and Shell shares, but jokes how his mining shares have halved his money!

To me having a cross section of investments is crucial, so although I watch the price of gold and silver I'm more interested in the revenue producing shares in my ISA. Some of the biggest dogs in my portfolio are gold miners, stand up and be counted Yamana!

However, I try to take the Warren Buffett approach, NEVER LOOSE MONEY. So I'll hang onto these dogs and hope that my friend gets his reprieve also! For me, gold and silver along with the miners are insurance, for any black swan events that will undoubtedly land at some point in the future.

Not sure if this video has been posted before, apologies if it has.:)

https://youtu.be/7nSJkwa2lyM

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48 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

 

I have a friend I've known for the last 10 years or so who is sat in cash and gold after selling a house pre GFC 2007. It has been a painful experience for him watching house prices climb out above his selling point, gold dropping since 2011 and cash being eroded by inflation. I remember him being very sceptical when I was buying BP and Shell shares, but jokes how his mining shares have halved his money!

To me having a cross section of investments is crucial, so although I watch the price of gold and silver I'm more interested in the revenue producing shares in my ISA. Some of the biggest dogs in my portfolio are gold miners, stand up and be counted Yamana!

However, I try to take the Warren Buffett approach, NEVER LOOSE MONEY. So I'll hang onto these dogs and hope that my friend gets his reprieve also! For me, gold and silver along with the miners are insurance, for any black swan events that will undoubtedly land at some point in the future.

Not sure if this video has been posted before, apologies if it has.:)

https://youtu.be/7nSJkwa2lyM

No doubt you have read on here, the kind of diversification that many of us have in our ISAs, SIPPs etc.

My physical silver is entirely for my daughter when she grows up in whatever state the financial climate is in at that point. 

I am not a ‘gold bug’ as such and have no interest in keeping PM miners for my lifetime portfolio, although I will have a small allocation of various PM ETFs for balance.

I think most on here have a similar outlook at looking for undervalued, well structured stocks that will provide growth and dividends coming out the other side of any financial downturn.

That value, may well come from infrastructure, clean energy and defensive stocks that have lost out to the FAANGs in the decade long QE frenzy.

In regards to house prices, I too sold in 2007 after coming out of a previous relationship. I think many on the likes of the HPC forum were looking for further drops in the market in 2011, but we would have quite happily bought at that point but we were not in the situation to. When we finally was in the position in 2013, the HTB scheme kicked in and as predicted the bubble blew into a ponzi at which we were not prepared to buy into and is now in reverse where I am.

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On 23/04/2019 at 13:15, Majorpain said:

HOC and FRES starting to look very interesting again, they are the last pieces of my portfolio for a hopeful run in the PM's.  Hoc's potential long term cup and handle could complete in June which ties in nicely with @DurhamBorn predictions.

Not long to go now to find out if we are right IMO.

HOC indeed looks promising in the short-medium term but I wouldn't touch FRES without seeing a strong bullish PA first.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

DXY just hit 98

I coincidentally sold some IBTL today and bought Endeavour with the proceeds

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StrugglingMillennial
20 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Managed to get a job lot of a few pre-1920 silver three pence the other day not too far off spot price to add to my daughters collection.

I can only think back in those days, people would have been checking their change after 1920 when the silver content was reduced by 50%!

Probably the start of TPTB devaluation of our currency into the farce that we find ourselves today. At least in the US they lasted until the 1960s.

938961E6-734B-4B7F-9F3E-AA54B04BF0C9.jpeg

Where did you find these?

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David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian Apr 23

 
 

I continue to believe the USD rally should top out soon near 98. Then we will likely see a big dollar selloff in coming months that sends USD to 85-86. Gold & the miners are nearing the end of their corrections with big rallies ahead. Gold to $1550, GDX to $40 & GDXJ to $70

 

David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian 7h7 hours ago

 
 

Despite the many calls for a rollover, I expect equity markets to continue to rally. Semis,industrials,rails & FAANG should continue to lead & miners will soon join them. USD rally nearing its end & poised for big decline. T-bond & gold corrections ending & nice rallies ahead.

 

 

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11 hours ago, BearyBear said:

HOC indeed looks promising in the short-medium term but I wouldn't touch FRES without seeing a strong bullish PA first.

Adding to my HOC holdings this month, still up 10% with that even with the latest PM knock back. It’s been my main PM holding since 2018.

FRES I’m also averaging in at at the current price, as I think they’ll have a large upside in a PM bull run, even with the lower than expected output and political risk.

Another I’ve been averaging in on the lows is Centamin. Bit of a jump on higher than expected output results. I’m liking the fact that they’ve largely invested in solar power to reduce output costs too.

I was also eyeing up Polymetal (Russia based) last year, didn’t press the trigger due to debt levels. Relatively unaffected by the current PM knockback, has had some strong growth in the SP.

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7 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Where did you find these?

Put in a snipe bid on EBay, wasn’t expecting it to go through at just above spot price. Even though they are 90% silver content, people sell them for a couple of quid each on EBay usually anyway.

Americans typically call it ‘junk silver’. You’ll find preppers buying up pre 1960s silver nickels and dimes as part of their survival kit, for smaller purchases after the zombie apocalypse.

I on the other hand am buying as part of a silver collection for my daughter. She likes to think she’s a pirate princess with her locked box of various silver coins. Plus its also a hedge against whatever financial climate she finds herself in the future when I’m dead and gone.

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UK Borrowing Surpasses Most Other Countries

The rate at which UK institutions, households and businesses are borrowing money is greater than that of all other OECD countries. This fact is alarming some economists not only because the rate of UK borrowing is high against the country’s GDP, but also because households, business and state coffers are running a deficit simultaneously for the first time since the 1980s.

Yet, a lot of the of the money borrowed is going into the housing market that is currently booming in the UK, therefore potentially creating valuable assets for citizens in the future. The same is true for the state, with some economists claiming investment in the future to be more important than a positive net lending score, according to reporting by the Financial Times.

The opposite of this attitude can be observed in OECD countries like Germany, where the government is among those pursuing a radically different borrowing strategy aimed at reducing debt. The country with the lowest borrowing rate in the OECD was Ireland.

Not included in the data by the OECD are overseas investments by Britons as well as foreigners’ financial business in the UK. Here, another troublesome statistic emerges. While the UK had been running a net profit for overseas lending and borrowing in the past, the situation has reversed since the financial crisis.

chartoftheday_17783_net_borrowing_and_lending_oecd_n.jpg.f1b54b8a388c2289c6bae9cb913c1433.jpg

https://www.statista.com/chart/17783/net-borrowing-and-lending-oecd/

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That statista data doesn't readily show what year its from, that's probably because its 2015.

Interesting, but about as much use as a chocolate fireguard in 2019!

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