Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[JMD]

hi DB, please could you give an update on your roadmap… in particular, do you think the S&P melt-up is fully underway, if so do your charts still show a 3500-4000 range in say Q3/4?

Also, do you still see silver dropping back to $8 (after an initial rally to approx. $26 this summer), If so would this price fall occur soon after the stock markets crash or might it be some time afterward? I know you don't look to provide specific timings/forecasts (its more about the macro env.), but could you explain why such a silver drop might happen, I am finding this aspect hard to understand because I would anticipate all commodities being highly sought after during/after an equity market shakedown?    

[StrugglingMillennial]

8 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Put in a snipe bid on EBay, wasn’t expecting it to go through at just above spot price. Even though they are 90% silver content, people sell them for a couple of quid each on EBay usually anyway.

Americans typically call it ‘junk silver’. You’ll find preppers buying up pre 1960s silver nickels and dimes as part of their survival kit, for smaller purchases after the zombie apocalypse.

I on the other hand am buying as part of a silver collection for my daughter. She likes to think she’s a pirate princess with her locked box of various silver coins. Plus its also a hedge against whatever financial climate she finds herself in the future when I’m dead and gone.

So whats a good value price for something like that, 99p?

[DurhamBorn]

17 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I coincidentally sold some IBTL today and bought Endeavour with the proceeds

I bought some too.

 

17 minutes ago, JMD said:

hi DB, please could you give an update on your roadmap… in particular, do you think the S&P melt-up is fully underway, if so do your charts still show a 3500-4000 range in say Q3/4?

 

Also, do you still see silver dropping to approx. $10, If so would this price fall occur soon after the stock markets crash or might it be some time afterward? I know you don't look to provide specific timings/forecasts (its more about the macro env.), but could you explain why such a silver drop might happen, I am finding this aspect hard to understand because I would anticipate all commodities being highly sought after during/after an equity market shakedown?    

 

The silver below $10 is based on the debt deflation finishing with a bang.There are that many derivatives out there i expect everything will be hit lower outside of T bills,but only for a very short window.We could see $8 and $25 within 12 months of each other.Im buying silver and the miners already and would see that as the chance to average down if it comes off.However there is a big chance inflation starts to show in the US first and that should see PMs trend.I have no problem buying silver and the miners here as i think we are in the early stages of the biggest silver bull in history.Im happy to hold several of the smaller silver miners like Endeavour,Panther etc as i expect some might  10,50 or even 100 bag in the next cycle.I top sliced most of them on the big run up and have started adding back now.Its highly likely what im buying il sell on time,rather than price.Im thinking 2026/27 sort of area,though if the complex doubles il likely sell 30% of my holdings.

 

 

[NogintheNog]

On 24/04/2019 at 11:32, Sideysid said:

No doubt you have read on here, the kind of diversification that many of us have in our ISAs, SIPPs etc.

Yes I know there has been much discussion on here about shares which are not gold related, VOD, CNA, BT, etc. The gist of my thread was aimed at anyone putting everything lock stock and barrel into the PM sphere, like my friend I refer to!

On 24/04/2019 at 11:32, Sideysid said:

In regards to house prices, I too sold in 2007 after coming out of a previous relationship. I think many on the likes of the HPC forum were looking for further drops in the market in 2011, but we would have quite happily bought at that point but we were not in the situation to. When we finally was in the position in 2013, the HTB scheme kicked in and as predicted the bubble blew into a ponzi at which we were not prepared to buy into and is now in reverse where I am.

I too would like to see the HTB ponzi finally cave in, I don't see how the current absurd situation continues! But I fear the CB's will somehow keep the plates spinning.
I hope that DB is right, and we are seeing the start of a debt deflation and HPC.

[CVG]

Quote

STAGECOACH

"Stagecoach Group plc ("Stagecoach" or "the Company") is today pleased to announce a share buyback programme to buy back shares with an aggregate market value of up to £60 million (the "Programme").

 

The Stagecoach Board believes that following the recent announcements regarding UK Rail coupled with the completion of the sale of the North America business, it is an  appropriate use of our cash at this time to buy back our own equity.

 

The intention is to complete the buy back over the next 12 months.  However, the Board of Stagecoach will keep the form and quantum of the programme under review.

 

The purpose of the buyback is to reduce the share capital of Stagecoach and it will take place within the limitations of the authority granted to the Board of Stagecoach at the general meeting, held on 31 August 2018, pursuant to which the maximum number of shares to be bought back was 50,000,000. The buyback will be conducted within the parameters prescribed by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014, the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/1052 and Chapter 12 of the Listing Rules. The repurchased ordinary shares will be held in treasury."

Currently up 5% on the day

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Currently up 5% on the day

Good to see I got in at the right time there, I had to cash out some BTC and free up some funds to get a chunk in at the 116 mark. Usually against my mantra, but when opportunities arise you have to make the most of it. Not sure what to make of the Arriva takeover rumours however, we shall see.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

16 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Adding to my HOC holdings this month, still up 10% with that even with the latest PM knock back. It’s been my main PM holding since 2018.

FRES I’m also averaging in at at the current price, as I think they’ll have a large upside in a PM bull run, even with the lower than expected output and political risk.

Another I’ve been averaging in on the lows is Centamin. Bit of a jump on higher than expected output results. I’m liking the fact that they’ve largely invested in solar power to reduce output costs too.

I was also eyeing up Polymetal (Russia based) last year, didn’t press the trigger due to debt levels. Relatively unaffected by the current PM knockback, has had some strong growth in the SP.

I bought some POLY after Will! (I think it was) on ToS mentioned them; up 22% inc. divs since I bought. Smaller allocation than other miners though.

[DoINeedOne]

16 hours ago, CVG said:

Currently up 5% on the day

Was going buy when it was around 115 just never got around to it, still bought my first ladder yesterday

[CVG]

7 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Was going buy when it was around 115 just never got around to it, still bought my first ladder yesterday

Yep, it's up again today. My alerts had me buying on 8th and 11th this month as the price plummeted after the rail franchise news. For me personally, the alerts take a load of stress and wasted time out my investing. I just act when I get my preset alert email. That way I can concentrate on my overall targets (using quite a few of the tips in here!).

[Bricks & Mortar]

31 minutes ago, CVG said:

For me personally, the alerts take a load of stress and wasted time out my investing. I just act when I get my preset alert email

Many thanks for this.   I haven't used them before.  Now, I'm reading about my providers service, and it's a bit of a eureka moment.

[DurhamBorn]

16 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Good to see I got in at the right time there, I had to cash out some BTC and free up some funds to get a chunk in at the 116 mark. Usually against my mantra, but when opportunities arise you have to make the most of it. Not sure what to make of the Arriva takeover rumours however, we shall see.

Lots more to come.These companies will chuck off cash in the next cycle.Arriva would be a fantastic buy if they got it cheap enough.Stagecoach need to forget rail and get scale in buses.Once they have that they can start to link everything together.Im not sure they can fund an Arriva buy,though they might buy parts and could probably fund around £250 million.Buying back their own shares but holding in treasury points to the fact they might have their eyes on something.I owned Arriva back in the late 90s,paid around £1 i think and sold them around £6.When i bought i think the yield was about 10%.Bahn would probably want cash though as it has huge debts.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Yep, it's up again today. My alerts had me buying on 8th and 11th this month as the price plummeted after the rail franchise news. For me personally, the alerts take a load of stress and wasted time out my investing. I just act when I get my preset alert email. That way I can concentrate on my overall targets (using quite a few of the tips in here!).

Taking the emotion out of it.Exactly what i do.Got some Imperial Brands yesterday on a ladder hit.Id re-bought  and re-sold at £30,but hit my ladder again yesterday,so some were bought.

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots more to come.These companies will chuck off cash in the next cycle.Arriva would be a fantastic buy if they got it cheap enough.Stagecoach need to forget rail and get scale in buses.Once they have that they can start to link everything together.Im not sure they can fund an Arriva buy,though they might buy parts and could probably fund around £250 million.Buying back their own shares but holding in treasury points to the fact they might have their eyes on something.I owned Arriva back in the late 90s,paid around £1 i think and sold them around £6.When i bought i think the yield was about 10%.Bahn would probably want cash though as it has huge debts.

Id not touch UK rail until rail unions and working practises are destroyed.

Railways have the most useless, pointless, expensive, make-work scheme going.

I owud not mind so much but everyone who works on railways dont seem to know fuck all.

Get the trains automated, rip out the old signalling, get heavy plant maintaining the track. Sorted.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id not touch UK rail until rail unions and working practises are destroyed.

Railways have the most useless, pointless, expensive, make-work scheme going.

I owud not mind so much but everyone who works on railways dont seem to know fuck all.

Get the trains automated, rip out the old signalling, get heavy plant maintaining the track. Sorted.

 

 

Exactly spy.Stagecoach should stay out of it until all the above happens.The big money in the next cycle is inter urban,not long distance.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

I've crossposted on the Trump thread, but maybe more appropriate here. US GDP (surprisingly) up to 3.2%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48067746

More evidence that whatever they do we're going to see either interest rate rises or inflation?

[Lightscribe]

On 25/04/2019 at 14:06, StrugglingMillennial said:

So whats a good value price for something like that, 99p?

All depends on the weight of the coin and if its pre-1920 (a 90% silver threepence is 1.4 grams), say for example you get 50 for around £35ish including postage. Spot price is just over $15 which would work out just under £29 for 70g. US bulk coins can be cheaper, but postage is higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junk_silver

Obviously it goes without saying the higher you go up in value and condition, then the rarity of the coin takes it way further from the spot price. In regards to the top of the scale only have to look at the likes of what a gold 5 guinea coin goes for.

Tradesman were paid and in pounds and the likes of Barristers in guineas, nothing changes with the elite always looking after their own.

http://logicmgmt.com/1876/living/money.htm

 

[spygirl]

13 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

I've crossposted on the Trump thread, but maybe more appropriate here. US GDP (surprisingly) up to 3.2%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48067746

More evidence that whatever they do we're going to see either interest rate rises or inflation?

I think its hilarious.

Fed can pause rising. Itll be happy to pause raising and step up selling off assets. One or other.

I told you US was red hot. You just need to know a few yanks and chat to them. Ive old work mates east coast, upstate ny, florida, west coast. The tales they tell are jaw dropping. Even in the most skilled job people are acting like burger flipppers - fuckit, ill go and work for  xxx for 20% more.

Part us economy booming, psrt boomers returing, part us dominant in tech and money floodung in, part 10% of working pop on presc smack.

The comedy is US v EU.

ECB n germans are shitting it. German exprters dont want € to fall against $ - Trump and various pols will go fucking nuts if eu trade surplus increases. And trump looks good for 2nd term.

EcB are pissing around, doing fuckall. Theyve hit the end of the road on buying binds - they are stuffed to the gills.

10 years and the ecb have still not sorted out the banks - desperate attemot at mergung db n commerz.

Ecb chickened on doing what was needed to to be reserve currency - europe is roughly balanced, which means theres not surplus of € floating in world.

Ecb n eu are a fucking disaster. And it shows.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Slightly OT but a good few days for me - GBPUSD short closed with good profit, BTCUSD short still open with very good profit (trailing stop now on), and my move from IBTL to Endeavour has now covered all trading costs and is in the green by 3%. Hopefully it's up from here eh @DurhamBorn! Only a few day's wages profit but I love it when everything aligns.
I've even been pretty productive in my day job. Despite the above.

11 hours ago, CVG said:

Yep, it's up again today. My alerts had me buying on 8th and 11th this month as the price plummeted after the rail franchise news. For me personally, the alerts take a load of stress and wasted time out my investing. I just act when I get my preset alert email. That way I can concentrate on my overall targets (using quite a few of the tips in here!).

 

10 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Many thanks for this.   I haven't used them before.  Now, I'm reading about my providers service, and it's a bit of a eureka moment.

Does your broker have the option to set limit orders? It'll just buy automatically at a price you set. No need to respond to alerts.

@spygirl, you don't reckon the dollar will turn now?

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Slightly OT but a good few days for me - EURUSD short closed with good profit, BTCUSD short still open with very good profit (trailing stop now on), and my move from IBTL to Endeavour has now covered all trading costs and is in the green by 3%. Hopefully it's up from here eh @DurhamBorn! Only a few day's wages profit but I love it when everything aligns.
I've even been pretty productive in my day job. Despite the above.

 

Does your broker have the option to set limit orders? It'll just buy automatically at a price you set. No need to respond to alerts.

@spygirl, you don't reckon the dollar will turn now?

Turn ? Up or down?

Itll strengthen.

Chinas blowing up.

Eutos still fuvked.

Ecb will have to raise rates to manage differential.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

I've crossposted on the Trump thread, but maybe more appropriate here. US GDP (surprisingly) up to 3.2%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48067746

More evidence that whatever they do we're going to see either interest rate rises or inflation?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html

Trump did booost the us econ. But not by that much.

Talk of yield curve ignores CB have fucked old signal for 20 years.

Basic fact is - stuff breaks, falls to bits whatever. And needs replacing eventually.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Dollar will top out soon even if one final push higher and head down to 86 it think,once they smell inflation around May/June the PM complex should run.The GDP increase in the US was mainly inventory build up,a classic warning signal.The main gainer on the dollar will be commod currencies and the Yen,maybe sterling.98 was my target on the dollar (97 to 98) and its tagged that now.As it falls it should power the miners.The Fed will be faced with rising inflation and falling GDP from here,the classic sell the dollar buy gold signal.Gold could still face a sell off first,even down to $1230,but then should really start to trend higher.Iv re-topped up some miners,but waiting on others as i still think we might get another down blast yet.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Does your broker have the option to set limit orders? It'll just buy automatically at a price you set. No need to respond to alerts. 

I'm reading about that now as well.  Seems they do.
I'm new to stocks & shares, but also off work with a busted foot.  Plenty time to just sit and watch exchange rates and charts for the next few weeks, and I'm finding that quite educational.  I'll play with these, and hopefully set them up for serious before I go back to work and once I'm sure I'll not accidentally bid more than the national debt or something.

Thanks again.

[StrugglingMillennial]

3 hours ago, Sideysid said:

All depends on the weight of the coin and if its pre-1920 (a 90% silver threepence is 1.4 grams), say for example you get 50 for around £35ish including postage. Spot price is just over $15 which would work out just under £29 for 70g. US bulk coins can be cheaper, but postage is higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junk_silver

Obviously it goes without saying the higher you go up in value and condition, then the rarity of the coin takes it way further from the spot price. In regards to the top of the scale only have to look at the likes of what a gold 5 guinea coin goes for.

Tradesman were paid and in pounds and the likes of Barristers in guineas, nothing changes with the elite always looking after their own.

http://logicmgmt.com/1876/living/money.htm

 

Great explanation, thankyou.

I would really like to increase my silver holding but i have no desire to pay VAT, ive got some gold but silver is attractive because its cheaper and i feel its undervalued. Im thinking a good few tubes of coins is the way forward 👍

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Great explanation, thankyou.

I would really like to increase my silver holding but i have no desire to pay VAT, ive got some gold but silver is attractive because its cheaper and i feel its undervalued. Im thinking a good few tubes of coins is the way forward 👍

Well, in larger amounts I would recommend silver-to-go (looks to be same as coininvest but slightly cheaper) and go with the silver 1oz 2019 Britainnas. No VAT on purchasing and no CGT to pay on any gains (unlike bullion) and they are .999 silver. Obviously postage etc doesn’t make it worth it for smalller amounts.

Im only buying the junk silver as it’s a bit of a hobby for my daughter and it’s a bit cheaper to buy smaller amounts here and there.

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Great explanation, thankyou.

I would really like to increase my silver holding but i have no desire to pay VAT, ive got some gold but silver is attractive because its cheaper and i feel its undervalued. Im thinking a good few tubes of coins is the way forward 👍

You only need to pay VAT if you take possession so it might be worth considering keeping it in a vault or buying a physical ETC.