Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Lavalas said:

No sign of Sancho since March. Hopefully just taking a break from it all.

He is fine,im sure he will be back when things get going.

 

[DurhamBorn]

The potash companies i have ladders in are Mosiac Co and K & S AG,i dont have Sirius as i worry the equity might be diluted away,though its resource is superb.I also know several engineers who work there (its nots that far from me) who used to work at the Steel works and the mine is coming along very well.Teesport is perfect for shipping and they can already use it.Massive demand for potash in the next cycle.It will explode in price i expect.

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, MvR said:

Sirius Minerals, who mine fertiliser in Yorkshire ( there's got to be a joke in there somewhere) , has been mentioned here in the past as a possible re-inflation stock. 

I notice they're down almost 30% over the last couple of days on news of the completion of a $3.8bn finance deal with JP Morgan, which apparently includes more potential stock dilution than shareholders were expecting if bonds are converted to stock at some point. If that's now priced in, maybe it isn't a bad time to take a punt?

I've had a little nibble in my ISA.  Not a recommendation at all, but thought some might be interested.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8e3371a-6be5-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84

They dig holes, thats all.

 

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

Any willing to give a quick intro summary of the premise of the thread for @One percent? I did start one but I've had very little sleep and a bottle of wine...

[One percent]

On 01/05/2019 at 19:51, spygirl said:

They dig holes, thats all.

 

Have they actually dug a hole or have they just pretended to? 

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Any willing to give a quick intro summary of the premise of the thread for @One percent? I did start one but I've had very little sleep and a bottle of wine...

Economy is debt.

Cost of debt increasing.

Economy decreases.

Debt load doesn't decrease.

Debt crushes economy.

Government starts QE to infinity to stop Economy collapsing from last round of QE induced debt.

 

Central banks are therefore paranoid about keeping the cost of debt down, which the Fed has completely ignored and raised interest rates/removed money from economy.

[DurhamBorn]

As expected inflation starting to show its hand in May.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-press-releases/-/2-03052019-AP

US should follow and the PMs should start to trend.GDX is now within the top of my buying range and i started to add positions yesterday to my favourite plays.I expect from here to -5% will be the likely bottom in the complex and a bounce into the 21.60 area then maybe one last pull back.After that i fully expect the sector to start to trend and any sellers selling on another bounce expecting a pull back wont get it.There will be some nasty pull backs later of course,but i expect the complex will be much higher in a year.

 

[janch]

Does anyone have a go-to site to keep an eye on company news?  This would be very useful for shares I own or am looking to buy into in case there are likely to be any sudden drops or gains. 

[Majorpain]

My own anecdotal story, was in the dentist this week and a sign had been put up about the abuse the reception staff had been receiving from multiple people over the last couple of months.  When its described as the worst period over a 20 year career it does seem a little bit of an outlier, its certaintly not cheap but how financially strained do you have to be to blow your top over £60, or even £256 if your really unlucky? 

[MvR]

29 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could I please add an equally important source of inflation data to that comment?

I was shocked and excited (given my GDXJ holdings) this week to find my once in a while treat Sausage and Egg McMuffin has gone up to £2.50. It was £2.20 a short while ago, and I'm certain it was £2 even less than 3 years ago as I paid for it with £2 coins. Now that is a savage rate of inflation. I don't care how they hedonically adjust it, its all around and can't be hidden much longer. 

To add: it was still very very tasty

Edit: come to think of it, I logged on to the HL app while eating it and bought a bit more GDXJ, in case you ever wonder what a nondescript McD denizen might be doing on their phone :-)

I'm noticing Tesco meat prices are edging up a little. Admittedly my personal inflation rate has risen since I've been going for better quality meat, but I noticed their "finest" ribeyes, lamb chops and sausages are now only a tiny fraction cheaper than my local organic farm butcher by weight, and not nearly as good quality.

Today's butcher's bill ( at the farm shop ) was around £35 for lots of sausages, a couple of rib-eyes, some black pudding and a joint of lamb.. about 5 days worth for me at the moment .. I'm eating a lot of good meat, but in the spirit of this thread, I paid for it with a nice United States Steel earnings play.. a "big lizard" (short straddle with covering long call) on the options expiring this week, which made me about just about £35 this morning.  

There's something strangely satisfying about mentally linking a trade to a particular shopping bill.  Feels like a hunter making a kill,  and the meat tastes better for it!

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

As expected inflation starting to show its hand in May.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-press-releases/-/2-03052019-AP

US should follow and the PMs should start to trend.GDX is now within the top of my buying range and i started to add positions yesterday to my favourite plays.I expect from here to -5% will be the likely bottom in the complex and a bounce into the 21.60 area then maybe one last pull back.After that i fully expect the sector to start to trend and any sellers selling on another bounce expecting a pull back wont get it.There will be some nasty pull backs later of course,but i expect the complex will be much higher in a year.

 

Is a move higher in PMs just linked to weakening fiat? Or is there finally a recognition of demand for the real (not paper traded) stuff coming?

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

My own anecdotal story, was in the dentist this week and a sign had been put up about the abuse the reception staff had been receiving from multiple people over the last couple of months.  When its described as the worst period over a 20 year career it does seem a little bit of an outlier, its certaintly not cheap but how financially strained do you have to be to blow your top over £60, or even £256 if your really unlucky? 

NHS? Should really be free in the spirit of it tbh. Also, my last dental check-up was £14 IIRC, it was £11 last time I remember it! Wales, if that affects things. Quite a percentage increase.
I do think people are starting to find things tight - retail profits demonstrate this.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could I please add an equally important source of inflation data to that comment?

I was shocked and excited (given my GDXJ holdings) this week to find my once in a while treat Sausage and Egg McMuffin has gone up to £2.50. It was £2.20 a short while ago, and I'm certain it was £2 even less than 3 years ago as I paid for it with £2 coins. Now that is a savage rate of inflation. I don't care how they hedonically adjust it, its all around and can't be hidden much longer. 

To add: it was still very very tasty

Edit: come to think of it, I logged on to the HL app while eating it and bought a bit more GDXJ, in case you ever wonder what a nondescript McD denizen might be doing on their phone :-)

I bought a sausage egg mcmuffin meal for the 1st time in a while this week, £3.69 it was £3.29 last time i went.

I install boilers for a living, 2 years ago a Typical Vaillant with all the controls was about £1250, now nearly £1600.

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could I please add an equally important source of inflation data to that comment?

I was shocked and excited (given my GDXJ holdings) this week to find my once in a while treat Sausage and Egg McMuffin has gone up to £2.50. It was £2.20 a short while ago, and I'm certain it was £2 even less than 3 years ago as I paid for it with £2 coins. Now that is a savage rate of inflation. I don't care how they hedonically adjust it, its all around and can't be hidden much longer. 

To add: it was still very very tasty

Edit: come to think of it, I logged on to the HL app while eating it and bought a bit more GDXJ, in case you ever wonder what a nondescript McD denizen might be doing on their phone :-)

Ah the Sausage and egg McMuffin. Truly the breakfast of champions!

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

My own anecdotal story, was in the dentist this week and a sign had been put up about the abuse the reception staff had been receiving from multiple people over the last couple of months.  When its described as the worst period over a 20 year career it does seem a little bit of an outlier, its certaintly not cheap but how financially strained do you have to be to blow your top over £60, or even £256 if your really unlucky? 

My stupidly expensive private dentist put up their prices at the start of the year, for the first time since I became a patient five years ago. 

[Thorn]

Size but not amounts in the ground...

https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-biggest-silver-producers-2340234

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Is a move higher in PMs just linked to weakening fiat? Or is there finally a recognition of demand for the real (not paper traded) stuff coming?

It will be because people see the Fed cant tighten,but inflation is running up.A debt deflation is the real problem,but inflation will do the job instead of rate increases.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I bought a sausage egg mcmuffin meal for the 1st time in a while this week, £3.69 it was £3.29 last time i went.

I install boilers for a living, 2 years ago a Typical Vaillant with all the controls was about £1250, now nearly £1600.

One of the reasons i put a new boiler in and replaced all windows etc a couple of years ago.I use the Burger King app,really good discounts and they tend to hold them down.The KFC one is also decent,just less choice.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

My stupidly expensive private dentist put up their prices at the start of the year, for the first time since I became a patient five years ago. 

Go to the hospital on a Saturday tea time with raging toothache.They get you in with an emergency dentist and that way you dont have to pay.Its classed as NHS treatment under the hospital.Only works on a Saturday evening though.Of course only good for a filling or extraction.My NHS dentist has been taken over by BUPA.You used to get a check up and a clean same price.Now the dentist checks you,but then sends you to the hygienist in the next room,up the pay band then to £60 instead of £20 odd.

[Sound Money]

Quite a drop for EGO today. Q1 report doesn’t sound good at all

[RickyBacker]

Just for a bit of cross-country comparison... I live in Taiwan and here I can get the sausage/egg mcmuffin meal for 89NT$ which is about £2.20. The even better deal is the healthcare... I was amazed the first time that I visited a dentist visit over... got a full check-up with thorough teeth clean. The bill? 50NT$ and they even threw in a free bottle of mouthwash with that!

[Sugarlips]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I bought a sausage egg mcmuffin meal for the 1st time in a while this week, £3.69 it was £3.29 last time i went.

I install boilers for a living, 2 years ago a Typical Vaillant with all the controls was about £1250, now nearly £1600.

Sm, med or lrg? Trying to compare with Oz prices out of curiousity (everything costs more down under..)

[invalid]

11 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Ah the Sausage and egg McMuffin. Truly the breakfast of champions!

And interestingly, McDonalds is something where I have not noticed any reduction in quality or portion sizes. That's not to say there aren't any, but just that I havn't noticed any.

Perhaps better to see a price increase rather than a quality reduction.

In other areas I've seen lots of trimming back, I work away quite a lot and I've noticed that many hotels have cut back on the quality of things like breakfasts and even the shower gels and soaps in the rooms.

[Castlevania]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Go to the hospital on a Saturday tea time with raging toothache.They get you in with an emergency dentist and that way you dont have to pay.Its classed as NHS treatment under the hospital.Only works on a Saturday evening though.Of course only good for a filling or extraction.My NHS dentist has been taken over by BUPA.You used to get a check up and a clean same price.Now the dentist checks you,but then sends you to the hygienist in the next room,up the pay band then to £60 instead of £20 odd.

Yeah I broke one of my teeth a few years ago and went to the emergency NHS dentist at the hospital. Most of the people there didn’t have dental emergencies. The dentist seemed surprised when he took one look at my mouth and realised I actually had a problem that needed addressing ASAP I.e. an emergency. Did a good job rebuilding my tooth and it was free.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, null; said:

And interestingly, McDonalds is something where I have not noticed any reduction in quality or portion sizes. That's not to say there aren't any, but just that I havn't noticed any.

Perhaps better to see a price increase rather than a quality reduction.

In other areas I've seen lots of trimming back, I work away quite a lot and I've noticed that many hotels have cut back on the quality of things like breakfasts and even the shower gels and soaps in the rooms.

I think they’ve changed the oil used for the hash browns. Not sure if on cost grounds or perceived health grounds. They don’t seem as nice as they once were.

Intriguingly years ago when Charles Clover was researching his book The End of the Line on over fishing, the only large company that only sold fish from sustainable sources was McDonald’s. They’d switched to sourcing a different type of fish from somewhere between Australia and New Zealand purely on cost grounds which due to being plentiful was sustainable. No one noticed any change in taste.