Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

Bobthebuilder
6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Sm, med or lrg? Trying to compare with Oz prices out of curiousity (everything costs more down under..)

Medium with a cappuccino.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Majorpain
1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Did a good job rebuilding my tooth and it was free.

Grinds my gears when people say the NHS is free, i pay £1000's of tax a year for it! :CryBaby:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, null; said:

And interestingly, McDonalds is something where I have not noticed any reduction in quality or portion sizes. That's not to say there aren't any, but just that I havn't noticed any.

Perhaps better to see a price increase rather than a quality reduction.

In other areas I've seen lots of trimming back, I work away quite a lot and I've noticed that many hotels have cut back on the quality of things like breakfasts and even the shower gels and soaps in the rooms.

Their McFlurrys are much smaller than they used to be, and more expensive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drastic reduction in the size of the Aldi sole fish box.  The fillets rattled in the old bigger box but do the same in the smaller one.  Until now shrinkflation has been subtle but the bottom of the barrel has been reached so now it's obvious or higher prices.

There are two types of money printing and exchange rate induced inflation:  first the good (asset prices) and then the bad (costs).  Hope you all enjoyed the first to buffer against the second, or does that only apply to the 1%.

Oh, and bad news 1%er, in the Weimar Republic the initial asset price inflation ultimately failed to keep up in the face of the subsequent hyper inflation tsunami.

This thread is sound.  Above a relatively low level, inflation and deflation are bed fellows in terms of cycles.  One usually follows a large move in the other.  And neither are steady states.  Above this relatively low level each will exponentially increase like a rocket until they burn themselves out and the other takes over.  And the current data manipulation does not create a steady state, just an imaginary one.

This will absolutely not end well and we are already walking in the minefield.  We retrace our steps, make amends, and forgo the fake progress, or we walk on until we hit a mine.  We (they) will walk us on.

We can either amass enough money or use what money and time we have wisely to prepare.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, null; said:

And interestingly, McDonalds is something where I have not noticed any reduction in quality or portion sizes.

The standard McDonald burger has shrunk quite significantly over the last 15 or so years. The meat patty is thinner/smaller and the bun itself is smaller.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Drastic reduction in the size of the Aldi sole fish box.

Thinking about it, Aldi's frozen fish section is a good metaphor for the inflation, and other, statistics:

. Fish prices go up so reduce the size of fish for the same price (shrinkflation).  Subsequently only talk in absolute not relative (per 100g) terms.  The opposite to what they do with the GDP numbers (absolute v per capita).

. Fish prices go up so substitute for cheaper (e.g. Basa) fish.  After all, that more closely follows what people are buying!!!!!!

. Fish prices go up so reduce the weighting given to fish in the inflation index basket as people are buying less!!!!!!!!

. Fish prices go up but not against that awfully bad year we had when there were no fish to be had or when everyone wanted it because the doctor said so.  So rebase today's prices against then.

. And so on, fishy being very apt!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Harley said:

Drastic reduction in the size of the Aldi sole fish box.  The fillets rattled in the old bigger box but do the same in the smaller one.  Until now shrinkflation has been subtle but the bottom of the barrel has been reached so now it's obvious or higher prices.

There are two types of money printing and exchange rate induced inflation:  first the good (asset prices) and then the bad (costs).  Hope you all enjoyed the first to buffer against the second, or does that only apply to the 1%.

Oh, and bad news 1%er, in the Weimar Republic the initial asset price inflation ultimately failed to keep up in the face of the subsequent hyper inflation tsunami.

This thread is sound.  Above a relatively low level, inflation and deflation are bed fellows in terms of cycles.  One usually follows a large move in the other.  And neither are steady states.  Above this relatively low level each will exponentially increase like a rocket until they burn themselves out and the other takes over.  And the current data manipulation does not create a steady state, just an imaginary one.

This will absolutely not end well and we are already walking in the minefield.  We retrace our steps, make amends, and forgo the fake progress, or we walk on until we hit a mine.  We (they) will walk us on.

We can either amass enough money or use what money and time we have wisely to prepare.

There is no escape from such a monetary crisis. Either the system is abandoned voluntarily or total collapse is assured.

Gold is one of the few ways of saving yourself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

The standard McDonald burger has shrunk quite significantly over the last 15 or so years. The meat patty is thinner/smaller and the bun itself is smaller.

And I believe coffee is now a robusta/arabica mix.  Used to be pure arabica.  Or was that Burger King.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I think they’ve changed the oil used for the hash browns. Not sure if on cost grounds or perceived health grounds. They don’t seem as nice as they once were.

Intriguingly years ago when Charles Clover was researching his book The End of the Line on over fishing, the only large company that only sold fish from sustainable sources was McDonald’s. They’d switched to sourcing a different type of fish from somewhere between Australia and New Zealand purely on cost grounds which due to being plentiful was sustainable. No one noticed any change in taste.

 

That's interesting on the hash browns because now you mention it, I had been thinking they were not quite as good as they were 20 years ago. I had put it down to memory bias and looking back with rose tinted glasses. I still like their hash browns. I found this on the McD website but could not find if they have always used this blend:

" McDonald's hash browns are made in the West Midlands, using British-grown potatoes. They are then cooked in a 100% vegetable oil made up of a blend of sunflower and rapeseed oil. "

Some further searching on duckduckgo for McDs getting smaller throws up plenty of news stories so perhaps as per Errols post it would seem that there has been some shrinkage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ashestoashes
6 hours ago, Errol said:

There is no escape from such a monetary crisis. Either the system is abandoned voluntarily or total collapse is assured.

Gold is one of the few ways of saving yourself.

can it be confiscated ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Errol said:

The standard McDonald burger has shrunk quite significantly over the last 15 or so years. The meat patty is thinner/smaller and the bun itself is smaller.

Same as chocolate bars. All under the guise of tackling obesity?! Nowadays they are smaller but obesity is a bigger problem. Cunts.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Inoperational Bumblebee
On 03/05/2019 at 19:18, Castlevania said:

Ah the Sausage and egg McMuffin. Truly the breakfast of champions!

Double, of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
13 hours ago, Harley said:

Drastic reduction in the size of the Aldi sole fish box.  The fillets rattled in the old bigger box but do the same in the smaller one.  Until now shrinkflation has been subtle but the bottom of the barrel has been reached so now it's obvious or higher prices.

There are two types of money printing and exchange rate induced inflation:  first the good (asset prices) and then the bad (costs).  Hope you all enjoyed the first to buffer against the second, or does that only apply to the 1%.

Oh, and bad news 1%er, in the Weimar Republic the initial asset price inflation ultimately failed to keep up in the face of the subsequent hyper inflation tsunami.

This thread is sound.  Above a relatively low level, inflation and deflation are bed fellows in terms of cycles.  One usually follows a large move in the other.  And neither are steady states.  Above this relatively low level each will exponentially increase like a rocket until they burn themselves out and the other takes over.  And the current data manipulation does not create a steady state, just an imaginary one.

This will absolutely not end well and we are already walking in the minefield.  We retrace our steps, make amends, and forgo the fake progress, or we walk on until we hit a mine.  We (they) will walk us on.

We can either amass enough money or use what money and time we have wisely to prepare.

Thats right.Inflation is going to do the job rates should of done.Margins are being crushed in a lot of areas.If you cant front run inflation your in trouble.Council Tax for a band A in my home town is over £1400 a year.Someone now needs to earn nearly £2000 a year on the top of their note just to pay the council tax.The state has and is refusing to take any pain and is instead doing what it always does,try to take everyones assets/wealth.People dont understand how its going.Most are feeling ok due to housing wealth or tax credits etc.Its unlikely,but the government and elite might yet find themselves on the end of a rope,or a few being knocked off.France seems to be first down the road.They arent far away from another revolution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NogintheNog
15 hours ago, harp said:

Same as chocolate bars. All under the guise of tackling obesity?! Nowadays they are smaller but obesity is a bigger problem. Cunts.   

Aldi 85% Dark Chocolate, about 8 months ago £1.10p. Now £1.39p. It's up there with Red Wine and Guinness in the essentials category!:)

choc.png

Strangely this is despite raw Cocoa prices dropping????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AlfredTheLittle
3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

My plan for this to enrol on a part time PhD. Should be able to eke it out for 6 years at least, which should be enough time for people start rioting about it.

What is the low income threshold?

I think you only get the exemption if you're a full time student

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NogintheNog
19 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

A macro guy.  Broadly in line with the thread premise- thinks its up in the air if its deflation or straight to reflation.

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/the-expert-view/videos/fed-trapped-between-the-devil-and-the-deep-blue-sea

Thanks for the link. Really interesting video on the Devil (deflation) and the Deep Blue Sea (inflation).

Will the FED accept materially higher rates of inflation? I think that is a dead cert, I think they fear deflation far more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has anyone thoughts on where to get investment exposure to the coming 5G revolution - both in terms of technology rollout (i.e. telecoms or general infrastructures?), and also for the many various future applications? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats right.Inflation is going to do the job rates should of done.Margins are being crushed in a lot of areas.If you cant front run inflation your in trouble.Council Tax for a band A in my home town is over £1400 a year.Someone now needs to earn nearly £2000 a year on the top of their note just to pay the council tax.The state has and is refusing to take any pain and is instead doing what it always does,try to take everyones assets/wealth.People dont understand how its going.Most are feeling ok due to housing wealth or tax credits etc.Its unlikely,but the government and elite might yet find themselves on the end of a rope,or a few being knocked off.France seems to be first down the road.They arent far away from another revolution.

DurhamBorn, what form would a French 'revolution' take - surely no pitchforks, but they might just vote in the NF at the next general elections?

On this related point, I think the (mostly unreported) story from the recent UK local council elections was the gains made by independent councillors (661 gains), nearly as many as the LibDem gains (704 gains), but hardly mentioned. The UKIP vote fell away, so who exactly are these new independent councillors I wonder?  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
4 hours ago, JMD said:

Has anyone thoughts on where to get investment exposure to the coming 5G revolution - both in terms of technology rollout (i.e. telecoms or general infrastructures?), and also for the many various future applications? 

Huawei?

3 hours ago, JMD said:

DurhamBorn, what form would a French 'revolution' take - surely no pitchforks, but they might just vote in the NF at the next general elections?

On this related point, I think the (mostly unreported) story from the recent UK local council elections was the gains made by independent councillors (661 gains), nearly as many as the LibDem gains (704 gains), but hardly mentioned. The UKIP vote fell away, so who exactly are these new independent councillors I wonder?  

 

 

People who give a shit about their local communities?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
6 hours ago, JMD said:

DurhamBorn, what form would a French 'revolution' take - surely no pitchforks, but they might just vote in the NF at the next general elections?

On this related point, I think the (mostly unreported) story from the recent UK local council elections was the gains made by independent councillors (661 gains), nearly as many as the LibDem gains (704 gains), but hardly mentioned. The UKIP vote fell away, so who exactly are these new independent councillors I wonder?  

 

 

Independants win when its anyone but,,,,France will likely be a slow downward collapse.They will be hit hard by a reflation.Rigid economy,old industries etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
On 04/05/2019 at 11:50, Harley said:

Thinking about it, Aldi's frozen fish section is a good metaphor for the inflation, and other, statistics:

. Fish prices go up so reduce the size of fish for the same price (shrinkflation).  Subsequently only talk in absolute not relative (per 100g) terms.  The opposite to what they do with the GDP numbers (absolute v per capita).

. Fish prices go up so substitute for cheaper (e.g. Basa) fish.  After all, that more closely follows what people are buying!!!!!!

. Fish prices go up so reduce the weighting given to fish in the inflation index basket as people are buying less!!!!!!!!

. Fish prices go up but not against that awfully bad year we had when there were no fish to be had or when everyone wanted it because the doctor said so.  So rebase today's prices against then.

. And so on, fishy being very apt!

 

Iv found my local small river is full of signal crayfish.A tin of cat food with a couple of puncture holes in the tin inside a crayfish trap gets you dozens of them in a couple of hours.Nobody bothers with it or knows and a good place to put it is only a couple of minutes from a parking spot.Beautiful eating and free.I simply tip them  into one of those big plastic storage boxes you get at poundstretcher full of clean water for a couple of days to flush them out a bit.Worth checking out if signals are in your local river and d the same.You can get the traps on Ebay for a few quid.Your supposed to apply for a crayfish license on the Environment Agency website and attach it to the pots,they are free.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...