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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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StrugglingMillennial

You always make me smile DB 😂

I hope your river is clean, i had a go at cooking these once, got them out of a local pond and they were bloody aweful 😝. Tasted bitter like grass but the flesh is nice, they definately need a good flush, fiesty little bastards aswell.

Check out some of the swedish recipes, its a popular dish up that way 👍

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11 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

You always make me smile DB 😂

I hope your river is clean, i had a go at cooking these once, got them out of a local pond and they were bloody aweful 😝. Tasted bitter like grass but the flesh is nice, they definately need a good flush, fiesty little bastards aswell.

Check out some of the swedish recipes, its a popular dish up that way 👍

https://www.wikihow.com/Purge-Crawfish

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DurhamBorn
12 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

You always make me smile DB 😂

I hope your river is clean, i had a go at cooking these once, got them out of a local pond and they were bloody aweful 😝. Tasted bitter like grass but the flesh is nice, they definately need a good flush, fiesty little bastards aswell.

Check out some of the swedish recipes, its a popular dish up that way 👍

I find leaving them in a big tub of clean water for a few days is spot on.My local river isnt too bad.Good free food.

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DurhamBorn

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pacific-mining-newcrest-harmony-gold/us-allies-propose-financing-for-power-plant-for-papua-new-guinea-gold-mine-idUSKCN1SC0C6

“Infrastructure is the proxy for the greater competition happening between the U.S with its allies and China,” said Nick Bisley, professor of international relations at Melbourne’s La Trobe University. “The U.S. has to deliver on major projects to ensure it doesn’t lose ground on China.”

The United States and its allies worry that China is increasing economic aid to the Pacific region to exert influence over vast swathes of resource-rich ocean and international forums like the United Nations.

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DurhamBorn
18 minutes ago, Errol said:

Don't forget that China is essentially working with Russia. The US can't stop the Eurasian project or the OBOR.

Nope and both sides will invest like crazy against each other.

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find leaving them in a big tub of clean water for a few days is spot on.My local river isnt too bad.Good free food.

I’d have a go at this, but my local river is normally filled with shopping trolleys, condoms and the likes so doesn’t appeal to me to get dinner from there.

The licence is free and you can apply from the following link, however you would need to get the landowners permission. Fines can be up to £2000 if caught by the environmental officials. Just thought I’d add that for anyone interested.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/permission-to-trap-crayfish-eels-elvers-salmon-and-sea-trout

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On 03/05/2019 at 13:02, DurhamBorn said:

As expected inflation starting to show its hand in May.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-press-releases/-/2-03052019-AP

US should follow and the PMs should start to trend.GDX is now within the top of my buying range and i started to add positions yesterday to my favourite plays.I expect from here to -5% will be the likely bottom in the complex and a bounce into the 21.60 area then maybe one last pull back.After that i fully expect the sector to start to trend and any sellers selling on another bounce expecting a pull back wont get it.There will be some nasty pull backs later of course,but i expect the complex will be much higher in a year.

 

If we are about to see the USD turn down soon and PM's / miners start to trend up, as I buy in GBP I'm guessing with the fall of the USD then we here in the UK won't see much of a rise? Or is my guessing all wrong?

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StrugglingMillennial
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find leaving them in a big tub of clean water for a few days is spot on.My local river isnt too bad.Good free food.

To be honest i never knew at the time that you had to purge them, if i come across them again i will definately have a second go at cooking them.

We should start eating more of them, theyre an invasive species and a pain.

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Democorruptcy

One of the thread darlings Vodaphone are in the news

Quote

 

Vodafone Group has entered into a definitive agreement for a cable wholesale agreement in Germany with Telefónica Deutschland, it announced on Tuesday.
The FTSE 100 telecoms giant said the a agreement would allow Telefónica DE to offer high-speed broadband services to consumers on Vodafone and Unitymedia\'s cable network in Germany, and remained subject to the completion of Vodafone\'s acquisition of Liberty Global\'s operations in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, which itself was conditional on European Commission approval.

Under the terms of the cable wholesale agreement, Telefónica DE would be able to market broadband services over the combined Vodafone and Unitymedia cable network in Germany, which covered 23.7 million households.

Telefónica DE\'s customers would benefit from access to download speeds of up to 300 Mbps on the combined cable network, superior to the highest available speeds offered by wholesale DSL access, enabling Telefónica DE to deliver competitive broadband and over-the-top television services.

The cable wholesale agreement had been signed on a long-term basis, with Telefónica DE committed to achieving a minimum level of customers over the term of the contract.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vodafone-group-plc-usd0.20-2021/share-news

 

 

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18 hours ago, harp said:

If we are about to see the USD turn down soon and PM's / miners start to trend up, as I buy in GBP I'm guessing with the fall of the USD then we here in the UK won't see much of a rise? Or is my guessing all wrong?

I don’t think you are completely wrong. The gain in GBP terms won’t be as much as in USD terms but I think there will still be a gain because of the increased demand from the US investors. 

Just taking some example figures: say gold goes from $1280 to $1580 and the $/£ ratio goes from 1.3 to 1.5 (all just reasonable guesses), you would get a 23% increase in dollar terms and 7% in pound terms. 

If gold really takes off over the next few years then the exchange rate effect will be much reduced.

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

say gold goes from $1280 to $1580 and the $/£ ratio goes from 1.3 to 1.5 (all just reasonable guesses), you would get a 23% increase in dollar terms and 7% in pound terms. 

If gold really takes off over the next few years then the exchange rate effect will be much reduced. 

I agree with the first bit.  And if you're in miners, and gold goes to $1580, you should do pretty well despite the exchange rate.

As far as the next few years goes, I'm less clear.  The basis of this thread is massive money-printing and spending by central banks & governments, perhaps kicking off after the $ gets down to the 86 area later this year.  What that does to exchange rates, I'm not sure. 
Is it possible the $ could go back up?

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5 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I agree with the first bit.  And if you're in miners, and gold goes to $1580, you should do pretty well despite the exchange rate.

As far as the next few years goes, I'm less clear.  The basis of this thread is massive money-printing and spending by central banks & governments, perhaps kicking off after the $ gets down to the 86 area later this year.  What that does to exchange rates, I'm not sure. 
Is it possible the $ could go back up?

I'd expect the dollar to go back up, certainly relative to the pound as I imagine all of the western central banks will be in the same boat with money printing. I'm not sure about the far eastern currencies though. I'd guess that at the end of the cycle, if we get such massive money printing, that the dollar/pound/euro might collapse. Perhaps that may be a bit too doomsday as the pound survived the 70s and 80s.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
22 hours ago, harp said:

If we are about to see the USD turn down soon and PM's / miners start to trend up, as I buy in GBP I'm guessing with the fall of the USD then we here in the UK won't see much of a rise? Or is my guessing all wrong?

You are correct, but miners seem to work proportionately to PM price i.e. if gold goes up 10% miners go up 30% (arbitrary numbers for example). That's just what I've observed since investing. Others who are more experienced may be able to comment whether the relationship is linear, or otherwise. I suspect in a proper PM bull market certain miners go mental.

Rough figures, but Sibanye appeared to double in price on palladium going up 50%, and they mine other stuff too.

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sancho panza
On 06/05/2019 at 10:40, Castlevania said:

Yeah. Timing is not ideal. I’m only half way through buying up more gold and silver stocks.

Dow down 1.8% XAU up 1.34%

5 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

You are correct, but miners seem to work proportionately to PM price i.e. if gold goes up 10% miners go up 30% (arbitrary numbers for example). That's just what I've observed since investing. Others who are more experienced may be able to comment whether the relationship is linear, or otherwise. I suspect in a proper PM bull market certain miners go mental.

 

That's my experience,miners are a leveraged play on the underlying

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Inoperational Bumblebee
5 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

You are correct, but miners seem to work proportionately to PM price i.e. if gold goes up 10% miners go up 30% (arbitrary numbers for example). That's just what I've observed since investing. Others who are more experienced may be able to comment whether the relationship is linear, or otherwise. I suspect in a proper PM bull market certain miners go mental.

Rough figures, but Sibanye appeared to double in price on palladium going up 50%, and they mine other stuff too.

Today's figures for comparison:
Gold USD +0.2% [goldprice.org]
Gold GBP +0.33% [goldprice.org]
Silver USD +0.33% [goldprice.org]
Silver GBP +0.21% [goldprice.org]
For reference, GBPUSD -0.18%
iShares Physical Gold ETC [unhedged, GBP-denominated] up 0.96% (!?!?!? - should be same as gold GBP!)
Endeavour +1.46% [USDCAD +0.19%]
Harmony +6.71%
Sibanye +3.31%

Obviously, there's more to it than pure metal pricing, but it's amplified even in this subdued market. Works downwards too, hence trying to catch the bottom!

[EDIT] the first four don't even make sense in terms of a USD-denominated commodity in GBP, but that's what it says... Sometimes you get odd exchange rates on market/exchange. I've taken advantage of Bitstamp's ropey EURUSD rates before, and managed to make a (tiny) profit when I shouldn't have after fees at spot. I'm not going down the arbitrage route though; I think that way madness lies with my kind of mind.
 

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38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

That's my experience,miners are a leveraged play on the underlying

Yes, this is the whole point. Gold at $5000+ will see miners in a different universe.

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DurhamBorn
1 hour ago, Errol said:

Yes, this is the whole point. Gold at $5000+ will see miners in a different universe.

At $5000 Harmony would 30+ bag i expect.Gold miners tend to x3 the gold price over the short/medium term.In a real full on gold bull though people start to price the oz in the ground.Once that happens the high resource/high cost miners start to shine.We are now in the window where i expect we will see a bottom.It could be in or we could get one more up down,but i expect we will start to trend soon.Just need a sniff of inflation now in the US.

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On 06/05/2019 at 14:46, Errol said:

Don't forget that China is essentially working with Russia. The US can't stop the Eurasian project or the OBOR.

No.

They hate each other.

 

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

At $5000 Harmony would 30+ bag i expect.Gold miners tend to x3 the gold price over the short/medium term.In a real full on gold bull though people start to price the oz in the ground.Once that happens the high resource/high cost miners start to shine.We are now in the window where i expect we will see a bottom.It could be in or we could get one more up down,but i expect we will start to trend soon.Just need a sniff of inflation now in the US.

Indeed, Harmony and Endeavour will probably be my main picks for the huge bull run in gold and silver, respectively. Good size, production focused on their primary metal, and barely breaking even at today's prices. If feel that smaller price movements tend to favour small producers and explorers, as that extra $100/oz can be a difference between dilluting or not to stay afloat/continue drilling. That's just a very quick observation though, not much diligence behind it.

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