Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I made this guess yesterday.  I think its far too high.  I only thought about imported goods, not all goods sold in the US economy. 

Yes, its even a little bit more complicated than that in that some retailers might swallow the 25% if their customers wont pay 25% more, some might be able to increase prices 25% no bother.  They are going to end up with 25% on all their c $600bn imports at this rate, that will do a lot more damage to Chinese manufacturing who need the work than American consumers who dont need to consume the cheap tat.  If you want a real shock it costs less to post a package from Beijing to New York than LA to New York due to the US postal service subsidising it, Trump pulled out of that agreement so the Chinese exporters/US Consumers at some point in the near future are going to have "issues" with postage costs.

https://www.ft.com/content/876bc3ec-aadb-11e8-8253-48106866cd8a

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I wonder what affect it will have on US jobs. If the stuff that is imported is replaced with US manufactured products. That would be beneficial for the US economy and population surely? 

The data is out there, the US has been booming jobs wise, they must be starting to run out of trained workers with the rate heading down below 4%.  Still no sign of wage inflation just yet but it will be coming unless the laws of economics have changed!  Trump's America first doctrine will win him a second presidency IMO, even if the economy/stock market crashes due to a worldwide slump he can point the blame at China and say i tried to do my best for the US.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Castlevania

Royal Mail would save a fortune if the U.K. also pulled out of subsidising Chinese postage. It’s absurd but you can buy a hairbrush for less than a pound posted to you from China. The same thing to simply post second class in the U.K. costs £3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clueless Imbecile

I'm considering investing in more silver mining stocks, but I just feel a bit nervous about the risk of them going bust before the silver price picks up enough to get me a decent profit.

I was therefore thinking about maybe investing in a silver miners ETF or Fund (OEIC or Unit Trust). I haven't found many though, and from what I've seen they tend not to be available on ISA platforms.

Here's one I did find (looks like it is Gold and Silver though; not just silver):

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/m/merian-gold-and-silver-r-gbp-accumulation/key-features

Generally speaking, with an ETF or Fund, my main worry would be that the annual fee would eat into the investment if the silver price didn't rise enough over the years.

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on silver mining stock ETFs/Funds?

Have you found any that are available on an ISA platform (if so, which ETF/Fund and which platform)?


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sound Money
4 hours ago, Craig said:

Looked awfully to me like CZ from Binance and his six mates could've quite easily amended the ledger if they'd wanted to. That to me rings serious alarm bells. 

Sorry but no. If they could do it, why didn’t they to save themselves what was it, $40M?

They would have to convince more than half of mining power to remove the transaction. And as long as one miner can still insert those transactions back into the new chain they would need to maintain >50% indefinitely, unless they could also convince users running full nodes to ban those transactions/addresses.

Not feasible at all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
1 hour ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I'm considering investing in more silver mining stocks, but I just feel a bit nervous about the risk of them going bust before the silver price picks up enough to get me a decent profit.

I was therefore thinking about maybe investing in a silver miners ETF or Fund (OEIC or Unit Trust). I haven't found many though, and from what I've seen they tend not to be available on ISA platforms.

Here's one I did find (looks like it is Gold and Silver though; not just silver):

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/m/merian-gold-and-silver-r-gbp-accumulation/key-features

Generally speaking, with an ETF or Fund, my main worry would be that the annual fee would eat into the investment if the silver price didn't rise enough over the years.

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on silver mining stock ETFs/Funds?

Have you found any that are available on an ISA platform (if so, which ETF/Fund and which platform)?


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Just checked Hargreaves Lansdown for the only two silver mining etfs I’m aware of in SIL and SLVP and neither have a KID so you can’t buy them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar
19 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on silver mining stock ETFs/Funds?

Have you found any that are available on an ISA platform (if so, which ETF/Fund and which platform)?


I wanted something in an ETF myself, and bought GDXJ on HL, (could buy it, but not GDX, which was weird).   Most of the companies its invested into also produce silver to some degree, some in very decent quantities indeed.

PS - your disclaimer, rightbackatcha.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/05/2019 at 17:55, Castlevania said:

Royal Mail would save a fortune if the U.K. also pulled out of subsidising Chinese postage. It’s absurd but you can buy a hairbrush for less than a pound posted to you from China. The same thing to simply post second class in the U.K. costs £3.

I absolutely love it though. As you say ordinary personal care items, hairbrush, nail clippers, more cheaply delivered to your home from China than you could buy in boots, without the petrol and parking. Same for loads of other things you might want. What's not to like? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BurntBread
11 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

What's not to like?

I guess it's the fact that you do still have to pay the full transportation costs for all that stuff, but clandestinely, out of your taxes ... and the only way to get ahead in the game - to benefit disproportionately relative to other taxpayers - is to fill your house up with crap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I guess it's the fact that you do still have to pay the full transportation costs for all that stuff, but clandestinely, out of your taxes ... and the only way to get ahead in the game - to benefit disproportionately relative to other taxpayers - is to fill your house up with crap.

:Jumping:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In case you’re interested, this weeks ‘Notes from the Rabbit Hole’ newsletter is free to non-subscribers. I’m not a subscriber but I know it commands a fair bit of respect. Usual cost $33.50 per month.

I always thought it was PM focused but it’s much broader than that and fairly technical. 

Useful insight, perhaps.

https://nftrh.com/2019/05/12/attn-subscribers-and-non-subscribers-nftrh-551-available-for-free/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

MTRO.UK -85% YoY

WOW!

Blood in in the water so the shorters are out in force, range of outcomes at the moment is looking like less than 100p to 0p (nationalisation). 

Every single withdrawal takes capital out the bank and makes the original problem (not enough capital) worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/05/2019 at 19:10, Clueless Imbecile said:

 

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on silver mining stock ETFs/Funds?

Have you found any that are available on an ISA platform (if so, which ETF/Fund and which platform)?

 

I got some GDX from AJ Bell a couple of months back but couldn't get SIL or GDXJ from them (no KID document I think).  They also do individual miners and the merian gold and silver fund.  I've no idea if the fund would be better than individual stocks or ETFs as like you I'm clueless!

PS GDX hasn't done anything since I purchased it, if anything it's a bit down so far:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar
On 09/05/2019 at 20:21, harp said:

Go on then, who's laddering in on Helca Mining? Killing me so far O.o

I have this.  I'm not laddering, I just bought the chunk I wanted about 4 weeks ago.  30% down already, and another 2.5% today.  Thankfully, I only ever intended this to be a smaller holding, but still, that stings.  Considering selling and taking the loss.  Or playing with the automatic sell option to watch that in action.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
4 hours ago, janch said:

AJ Bell a couple of months back but couldn't get SIL or GDXJ

I have gdx and gdxj with AJ bell. Couldn't get SIL though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom

I thought this was interesting from SRSRocco

https://srsroccoreport.com/precious-metals-are-setting-up-for-a-major-rally-while-the-broader-markets-are-primed-for-a-crash/

Comparison of Dow Jones and NASDAQ  with 200 day moving average vs gold and silver prices. Uses these as an argument to sat that there may not be much of a price drop in PMs when we get a downturn. 

Gold-Montly-200MA-51019-768x464.png

Silver-Price-Monthly-200MA-51019-768x465.png

NASDAQ-Montly-200MA-51019-768x460.png

Dow-Montly-200MA-51019-768x463.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My personal technical (momentum) reaction (not advice) looking at the weekly data....

FTSE action still looking interesting as does the other markets.  Several FTSE stocks I watch have now retraced their 2018 post year end bounce to year end levels and they have only just had a MACD cross meaning more decline likely.  Others have fallen a lot further, a few exceptions like ULVR and RSA seem to still be on the up, and the remaining ones are still up over the year end but their MACDs are heading down.  Sure, maybe just the summer doldrums but think I'll wait some more.  Funny how the market usually declines after the ISA/SIPP new year and all those new subs!  My ETF short ETFs are looking promising.

VIX up 28% today (42% since the start of April).  BTC up 52% since its Feb 19 uptick.  Gold in GBP and USD looking interesting.  Silver not quite there yet for me. Treasuries still in a slow bull from March 19. Cable a bit range bound (hence the same technicals for USD and GBP gold).  CRB and WTI bears look like they have a bit further to go, although WTI could bounce.  GDX may be bottoming.

The charts....

SPX.thumb.JPG.2e1d5460c4f865299cbc0918b45ba553.JPGVIX.thumb.JPG.82ec46f405daee6799c7abea4d57abd9.JPGBTC.thumb.JPG.97802ac1a38161297a35900bc2e6e51b.JPGWTI.thumb.JPG.a2b7dcf8e73e4a96bc02d1b72185e146.JPGGold.thumb.JPG.48221e80cd54c3a506511ee70a79b646.JPGFTSE.thumb.JPG.12207338eb3a5275952cc4940ad2dd6b.JPG

GDX.thumb.JPG.c84044c6f919290df5b06a0f3901f3c0.JPGCRB.thumb.JPG.ed208db35229c88aad78bb029811989f.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Majorpain said:

If you have less than £85k savings not a/your problem (FSCS covered), if you hold shares then it is...but this is the case for any equities..Caveat emptor!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe

Well, I have a real world example of margins being squeezed. In keeping up with the usual bargain discount posts, Iceland have now invented new stickers and  reduced their near date items to a 1/3 rather than 1/2 price. Still picked up a few packs of chicken breasts, but not great.

In other news in the spirit of the thrifty (tight bastard) ways off this thread, I thought I'd share that I gave away my longest serving jacket today. 12 years old North Face coat that travelled around the world with me, still looks as new, only the inside lining a bit worn (although still exactly same design as the modern version). My elderly parents bought me a new one as a gift today as they said they wouldn't be around to see me finish wearing out the next one. 

I was going to give my old one to a charity shop, but my partners best friend (who genuinely doesn't have much money) took my old one and thought it was in great condition and gave it to her son who thanked me. Hopefully it will see a good few more years use yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...