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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, M.C. UK said:

Craig

Thanks -  now I vaguely remember this been mentioned - I am still struggling with the idea though O.o

 

Accumulated 120m oz in the space of eight years, according to the first Google link I clicked on - https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/silver-prices-physical-silver/

Quite impressive!

While concurrently manipulating the price, naturally - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/ex-jp-morgan-silver-traders-guilty-plea-could-boost-manipulation-suit.html

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DurhamBorn
3 hours ago, janch said:

Innovation at Royal Mail.  Considering how much of their business is parcels now I should think this is a good thing which should help the business long term.

 

                  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48334721

Market will keep hitting RM probs as they focus on the downsides and ignore the future.They have the network to do this and it will be returns where they clean up.Companies will offer a return label and people can pop it in a box.Another like VOD who probably need to cut the divi by 30% and use the capital to keep debt low and invest in things like this.This sort of thing will pull the rug from under Hermes/Collect+ etc,but only once it is everywhere.These boxes mean no margin is lost to collection points etc.The market is pricing people who deliver food at PEs of a zillion yet people who deliver everything at PEs of 6.Classic end of cycle stuff.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Market will keep hitting RM probs as they focus on the downsides and ignore the future.They have the network to do this and it will be returns where they clean up.Companies will offer a return label and people can pop it in a box.Another like VOD who probably need to cut the divi by 30% and use the capital to keep debt low and invest in things like this.This sort of thing will pull the rug from under Hermes/Collect+ etc,but only once it is everywhere.These boxes mean no margin is lost to collection points etc.The market is pricing people who deliver food at PEs of a zillion yet people who deliver everything at PEs of 6.Classic end of cycle stuff.

I don't know who delivers for Amazon but they must surely be doomed when the equity holders realise how much they're subsidizing deliveries.

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sancho panza
On 19/05/2019 at 22:33, DurhamBorn said:

Even Imperial Brands is paying down debt rather than  buy back shares.These heavy cash flow companies know whats coming.Not rolling over debt will make a huge difference going forward.

Annual last four years.CNA

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Castlevania
2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I don't know who delivers for Amazon but they must surely be doomed when the equity holders realise how much they're subsidizing deliveries.

They’ve been setting up their own delivery network. I think that’s only in big cities where it’s cost effective. 

My parents live in the middle of nowhere, and I just can’t see how Amazon make any money out of them.

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6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I don't know who delivers for Amazon but they must surely be doomed when the equity holders realise how much they're subsidizing deliveries.

Lot of random people with their own cars a few years ago, it seems to be a lot self employed with their own van these days.

Amazon setting up their own network might be a sign they are running out of people to take advantage of.

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sancho panza
Just now, Majorpain said:

Lot of random people with their own cars a few years ago, it seems to be a lot self employed with their own van these days.

Amazon setting up their own network might be a sign they are running out of people to take advantage of.

It's like that old adage about people retiring to work their knackers running a pub to line the breweries pockets

We pay £72 a year for prime.Those guys are here three/four times a week delivering kids forks/knife sets,paddling pools etc.We get them for cheaper than the shops.AMZN will one day be a lot lower than it is now.

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sancho panza

Recent weakness in the builders after two three months of strong momentum.Last week or two they started cracking one by one. 

@Harley what's your technical view from here?I took a few hosings short Feb/mar on these but have stuck in for the turn.

Crucially in 2008,the hosuebuilders played a canary role,BDEV/PSN peaking end 06,start 07

 

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sancho panza

The bear food jsut keeps coming.

I take Junior Panza watching the tills in M&S during our saturday morning trips to the market.Their food still does well but their clothing offering is not that liquid and the trade is mainly older demographics.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/ms-close-100-stores-2022-ceo-expects-profits-slump/

/ M&S to accelerate store closure programme
// It aims to shut 100 stores by end of 2020
// It has closed 14 stores since the end of March, making a total of 63 closures in just over 2 years
// M&S chairman Archie Norman & CEO Steve Rowe anticipate a drop in annual profits

Marks and Spencer has said it is focusing on closing down 100 outlets by the end of next year, speeding up its store closure scheme by two years.

The British retailer initially aimed to shut 100 stores by 2022, and has closed 14 stores since the end of March, making a total of 63 closures in just over two.

The news follows M&S chairman Archie Norman and chief executive Steve Rowe anticipating a drop in annual profits when it releases its full year results on Wednesday, according to The Times and Sunday Telegraph.

In the 13 weeks to December 29, total UK sales declined by 2.7 per cent to £2.7 billion.

M&S is reportedly eyeing job cuts in its clothing and home teams as it aims to simplify operations.

According to Drapers, 47 roles could be made redundant across buying, merchandising, marketing, supply chain and logistics in order to speed up decision-making processes.

Over 1000 people currently work in M&S’s clothing and home team

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Castlevania
15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Recent weakness in the builders after two three months of strong momentum.Last week or two they started cracking one by one. 

@Harley what's your technical view from here?I took a few hosings short Feb/mar on these but have stuck in for the turn.

Crucially in 2008,the hosuebuilders played a canary role,BDEV/PSN peaking end 06,start 07

 

image.png.cc5ddd29a53bdc7204cc8734a87a995f.png

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What’s behind the above? I’m on holiday so a bit behind on news. 

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sancho panza

 

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What’s behind the above? I’m on holiday so a bit behind on news. 

I follow the LSL/LCP Acadata surveys and charts rather than the newsflow as the latter is jsut noise these days..Housing in SE has been weak for sometime, price wise,transactions are  down across the regions-there's no argument on that -but the shares have been steady in the run up to Brexit day.Bizarrely so if you ask me.I never been one for conspiracy theories and world markets were building on the strong post santa rally,but still I was watching perennial help to buy favourite go up and up,wehn the portents for HTB addicts were getting worse.

PSN topped out,then one by one,RDW,BDEV,BWY,BKG.

It's been a strange experience CV,at times the hosuebuilders were shwoing stregnht when the wider market got pummelled-a safe haven play if you will(when nthey're anything but).I jsut couldn't figure it.Still can't.These prices are heading towards reality though.

 

PS happy to be enlightened if anyone knows why these moves occurred @Bricks & Mortar??? or anyone else in the trade

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Castlevania
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

 

I follow the LSL/LCP Acadata surveys and charts rather than the newsflow as the latter is jsut noise these days..Housing in SE has been weak for sometime, price wise,transactions are  down across the regions-there's no argument on that -but the shares have been steady in the run up to Brexit day.Bizarrely so if you ask me.I never been one for conspiracy theories and world markets were building on the strong post santa rally,but still I was watching perennial help to buy favourite go up and up,wehn the portents for HTB addicts were getting worse.

PSN topped out,then one by one,RDW,BDEV,BWY,BKG.

It's been a strange experience CV,at times the hosuebuilders were shwoing stregnht when the wider market got pummelled-a safe haven play if you will(when nthey're anything but).I jsut couldn't figure it.Still can't.These prices are heading towards reality though.

 

PS happy to be enlightened if anyone knows why these moves occurred @Bricks & Mortar??? or anyone else in the trade

Thanks. It’s a strange one as most trade on PEs of less than 10 and yield the best part of 10%. Help to buy was the gift from heaven to them.

The one company that intrigues me most is Berkeley who are by far the highest quality builder of the listed house builders (ironically seeing as they were set up by a chap from the travelling community) but they charge for that quality. Seeing as they’re heavily reliant on London I’d have expected them to fold first, but it doesn’t quite feel that way.

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Bricks & Mortar
10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Housing in SE has been weak for sometime, price wise,transactions are  down across the regions-there's no argument on that -but the shares have been steady in the run up to Brexit day.Bizarrely so

My impression of the market in Scotland was that it was red-hot over this period, and probably still is.  I can see more developments underway locally than at any time in a decade.  I read stories of tradesman (bricklayers) and material (plasterboard) shortages, and can confirm higher rates are being offered and my local merchant is scrambling to make sure they have board by using several different manufacturers.

I was unaware the average transaction price was falling.  Nobody ever reports bad news for the housing market.  I suspect many amateur investors might be similarly unaware.

Rising costs, falling sales...  not really that good, to put it mildly.

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@Harley what's your technical view from here?I took a few hosings short Feb/mar on these but have stuck in for the turn.

A funny bunch as they come up on my stock screener (buy signals) every so often but I run a mile (and have missed out)!

A quick scan of the weekly data looks like they are on the way down.  Momentum has just started to decline for some and might bottom soon for others.

Re. your Feb/Mar shorts:

.  Momentum did indeed turn then for, say CRST, which bounced off trend support.

.  But that was a bit short term as that 10% bounce up is now only 5%, but price is still above trend support.

.  However, for CRST, unlike Feb/Mar, MACD has now turned negative (just!).

Alas I have no system for shorting (oh I have tried), other than to look for buy signals on short ETFs!

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

My impression of the market in Scotland was that it was red-hot over this period, and probably still is.  I can see more developments underway locally than at any time in a decade.  I read stories of tradesman (bricklayers) and material (plasterboard) shortages, and can confirm higher rates are being offered and my local merchant is scrambling to make sure they have board by using several different manufacturers.

I was unaware the average transaction price was falling.  Nobody ever reports bad news for the housing market.  I suspect many amateur investors might be similarly unaware.

Rising costs, falling sales...  not really that good, to put it mildly.

It's very regional as memory serves me,the only places that are negative yoy are SE,London and North East(Overall,HPI is still postivie-it's transactions that are down).

Here in the East Mids,they're still building and day rates are up.Added to declining transactions and clearly the builders will get squeezed at some point.

LCP's April report is here.Particualrly good as it provides analysis of new build premium.

It states England & Wales  new build transactions are  down -17.3% QoQ

All transactions down 6.5% QoQ

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/research-media#print-broadcast-coverage

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sancho panza
14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Thanks. It’s a strange one as most trade on PEs of less than 10 and yield the best part of 10%. Help to buy was the gift from heaven to them.

The one company that intrigues me most is Berkeley who are by far the highest quality builder of the listed house builders (ironically seeing as they were set up by a chap from the travelling community) but they charge for that quality. Seeing as they’re heavily reliant on London I’d have expected them to fold first, but it doesn’t quite feel that way.

as per reply to BnM,the new build transactions in London are down -26.6% QoQ and -15.2% annually.New build premium is 21.8% so revenues may be hiding the damge.

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

A funny bunch as they come up on my stock screener (buy signals) every so often but I run a mile (and have missed out)!

A quick scan of the weekly data looks like they are on the way down.  Momentum has just started to decline for some and might bottom soon for others.

Re. your Feb/Mar shorts:

.  Momentum did indeed turn then for, say CRST, which bounced off trend support.

.  But that was a bit short term as that 10% bounce up is now only 5%, but price is still above trend support.

.  However, for CRST, unlike Feb/Mar, MACD has now turned negative (just!).

Alas I have no system for shorting (oh I have tried), other than to look for buy signals on short ETFs!

Apologies, I missed chart for Crest:

Capture3.thumb.PNG.dd0324a0789a3fc2ec30361353bb014f.PNG

 

22 Oct 18 was a buy point, with the 18 Mar 19 dip being a pull back to trend support.

Now at or near trend support but the momentum indicators are falling.  MACD has turned negative (just) and the stochastics failed to break above 80% before heading back down.

Good example of why I don't short but do sell longs in three lots -  I have no good sell signals.  18 Mar 19 looked promising but was a fake.

If I had bought on 22 Oct 18, I would have sold a third on 18 Mar 19 when it broke below 80% and MACD had weakened and I would still be holding a speculative third to see what happens next.

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DoINeedOne

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 217.20p15.70 (6.74%)

Tomorrow

22 May2019
Full Year 2018-19 Results and Strategy presentation
 
FINANCIAL RESULTS
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27 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 217.20p15.70 (6.74%)

Tomorrow

22 May2019
Full Year 2018-19 Results and Strategy presentation
 
FINANCIAL RESULTS

The monthly data isn't showing any rays of sunshine......

Capture4.thumb.PNG.b10bdaed16712044fc557dcecaca4306.PNG

Maybe time to take off my watchlist.  I like yield but........!

A nibbled a while back just to get it on my radar.  Wish I had just given the money to my posties at Christmas!

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DurhamBorn
19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The bear food jsut keeps coming.

I take Junior Panza watching the tills in M&S during our saturday morning trips to the market.Their food still does well but their clothing offering is not that liquid and the trade is mainly older demographics.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/ms-close-100-stores-2022-ceo-expects-profits-slump/

/ M&S to accelerate store closure programme
// It aims to shut 100 stores by end of 2020
// It has closed 14 stores since the end of March, making a total of 63 closures in just over 2 years
// M&S chairman Archie Norman & CEO Steve Rowe anticipate a drop in annual profits

Marks and Spencer has said it is focusing on closing down 100 outlets by the end of next year, speeding up its store closure scheme by two years.

The British retailer initially aimed to shut 100 stores by 2022, and has closed 14 stores since the end of March, making a total of 63 closures in just over two.

The news follows M&S chairman Archie Norman and chief executive Steve Rowe anticipating a drop in annual profits when it releases its full year results on Wednesday, according to The Times and Sunday Telegraph.

In the 13 weeks to December 29, total UK sales declined by 2.7 per cent to £2.7 billion.

M&S is reportedly eyeing job cuts in its clothing and home teams as it aims to simplify operations.

According to Drapers, 47 roles could be made redundant across buying, merchandising, marketing, supply chain and logistics in order to speed up decision-making processes.

Over 1000 people currently work in M&S’s clothing and home team

Iv bought some nice M&S shirts this week.3 for £12 delivered from Ebay.Lovely pair of Clarks shoes as well £6.50 delivered.The world is awash with "stuff".Im pretty miffed really it will end as you can live dirt cheap if you do this.

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

I follow the LSL/LCP Acadata surveys and charts rather than the newsflow as the latter is jsut noise these days..Housing in SE has been weak for sometime, price wise,transactions are  down across the regions-there's no argument on that -but the shares have been steady in the run up to Brexit day.Bizarrely so if you ask me.I never been one for conspiracy theories and world markets were building on the strong post santa rally,but still I was watching perennial help to buy favourite go up and up,wehn the portents for HTB addicts were getting worse.

PSN topped out,then one by one,RDW,BDEV,BWY,BKG.

It's been a strange experience CV,at times the hosuebuilders were shwoing stregnht when the wider market got pummelled-a safe haven play if you will(when nthey're anything but).I jsut couldn't figure it.Still can't.These prices are heading towards reality though.

 

PS happy to be enlightened if anyone knows why these moves occurred @Bricks & Mortar??? or anyone else in the trade

Id say Tesco bank pulling out of mortgages.The shrewd know very well what that means margins are too small and will be going up on rates.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv bought some nice M&S shirts this week.3 for £12 delivered from Ebay.Lovely pair of Clarks shoes as well £6.50 delivered.The world is awash with "stuff".Im pretty miffed really it will end as you can live dirt cheap if you do this.

I pop into our local barnardos charity shop once a week, 95% of everthing is £1, anyway there was a really nice jacket on there EXPENSIVE rail section @ £12 !

Popped in last friday and feck my old boots they REDUCED it to £1 they must of just REDUCED it that morning it fits me perfectly. plus got a brand new high qulitly T-shirt £1 ...boy Does it just MAKE YA FEEL GOOD ALL OVER getting these BARGAINS!xD

@DurhamBorn Surely this WON'T end when the MEGA inflation comes..?

Bought/added more Endeavour Silver & Yamana Gold today (wish i sold 'em when they were up a while back- who says this game is EASY?:ph34r: )as they look like they have hit a support line - though now i've added these I guess they'll go through support & down further! ha-HA!

I see royal-mail is down today over 9%  -21.5p ...now £2.15 good job i only bought a small stake @ 2.77...i reckon these going to 2 quid soon...

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DurhamBorn
1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I pop into our local barnardos charity shop once a week, 95% of everthing is £1, anyway there was a really nice jacket on there EXPENSIVE rail section @ £12 !

Popped in last friday and feck my old boots they REDUCED it to £1 they must of just REDUCED it that morning it fits me perfectly. plus got a brand new high qulitly T-shirt £1 ...boy Does it just MAKE YA FEEL GOOD ALL OVER getting these BARGAINS!xD

@DurhamBorn Surely this WON'T end when the MEGA inflation comes..?

Bought/added more Endeavour Silver & Yamana Gold today (wish i sold 'em when they were up a while back- who says this game is EASY?:ph34r: )as they look like they have hit a support line - though now i've added these I guess they'll go through support & down further! ha-HA!

I see royal-mail is down today over 9%  -21.5p ...now £2.15 good job i only bought a small stake @ 2.77...i reckon these going to 2 quid soon...

GDX will go up 40% i think this year and downside is max 5% from here.I sold a lot of Endeavour when they ran but have been buying back.Il buy more Royal Mail tomoz if they get whacked on bad results,ladder is £2.04 last one.Lots of classic end of cycle stuff going on.Iv got about 30 stocks now with ladders going.I topped out on VOD this week so thats them full now.I think 6 of the 30 are full.Id always expected that if all ladders hit id be down around 16% before divis,but it looks like it would be 11% now,mainly due to taking some profits on some miners when they ran and selling a few bottom ladders in Standard Life,BAT and Imperial earlier when they ran up.Imperial is back being bought again though.Im very pleased to be building out this portfolio  as the stocks im buying are nearly all down 50% from highs,some 75%.I actually thought PEs of 8 were likely before a turn and many are at that now (or under).The market is selling inflation stocks hard ,but the next cycle will be kind to them.I ignore the noise and simply buy when price points are met.

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NewGold is catching my eye again. Haven't followed them ever since I sold and frankly I don't see why I would own anything other than WDO at the moment, but at C$0.90 NGD looks almost tempting. 

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