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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

DurhamBorn

By DurhamBorn
in Property Prices & Economy

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

By the way @Harley  or anyone else.do you know a UK site that lists UK based ETF's in a user friendly format?

I'm using this one for the US which has been a super tool as I'm moving to trading sectors and indices that way to reduce volatility and managing dividend flows.

https://etfdb.com/compare/volume/

The reality may be that we're one year into a bear market,and there's already some cracking bargains.Quite who's buiyng Dunelm over VOD/CNA I'll never know.But that's what makes markets

Welcome to the club!  I like trading sector ETFs, weekly, over the mid term.  I include countries/geos in that.  Been doing it for years.  Easier in the US with all their ETFs than here though.

Been a while since I researched but, other than Morningstar and the one you mention, here are a few other bookmarks (may be dead now though):

https://www.etfworld.co.uk/

https://www.etf.com/

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/

https://www.justetf.com/uk/find-etf.html

In the good old days before KIDs I selected what I called the best of breed ETF per sector.  A lot of work but gave me a sector list of the best ETFs (size, tracking performance, costs, etc).

The technicals for most of my high yield watchlist shares are negative and I'm waiting for a buy signal before buying.  That maybe a few weeks away. 

In the meantime, I opened a trading FTSE short.  I may have hit gold and bought on the right shoulder of a H&S pattern, or just a pullback for the summer.

Should have done it earlier when I got the buy signal so missed quite a pop today but I expect a possible retrace so could buy more and am looking mid-term. 

Mid-term for me.  That's where the money and my availability lies.  IMO, best for trading sectors.  I'm not interested in (or available for) being glued to my screen day trading and scalping a few pounds.

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Majorpain

Majorpain

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

PMs deserve their own list, I've created that one on ProRealTime just by adding some of the companies mentioned in this thread. I do own a few from the list, small sizes though so I don't care much.

Alexco Resource Corp -24.46% YoY
Eldorado Gold Corp -42.87% YoY
Endeavour Silver -41.30% YoY
Fortuna Silver Mines -54.89% YoY
Great Panther Mining -44.31% YoY
Harmony Gold -3.43% YoY
International Tower Hill -30.90% YoY
New Gold -71.93% YoY
Sandstorm Gold +11.44% YoY
Sibanye Gold +24.63% YoY
Yamana Gold -32.05% YoY

for comparison:

si.f -11.01% YoY
gc.f -0.38% YoY

Nice list showing the dangers of getting attached to a PM stock and thinking its going to the moon!

Buy low, sell high is the way to do it, not looking at my stock account is my current strategy xD

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted

Love days like today.  Volatility is good (throws up opportunities at some point) and gives you a chance to see the strong stocks versus the weak ones (e.g. ULVR held up well).

So many of my watch list are showing the same technicals of very low momentum (a stochastic below 20%) and a negative MACD cross which may signal further falls (bargains) ahead. 

On the FTSE, we are at an important point (as always!).  We are possibly either at trend support (so go up from here) or at the RHS of a bearish head and shoulders pattern (so further falls).

On the weeklies, the start of a past bull from 13 Jun 2016 showed a similar series of patterns like today's so that's a risk to shorting or not buying a pullback now. 

But the monthlies are showing a series of lower highs and lower lows on a number of indicators and this could be a rounding top.  But then MACD is up and this could be an inverse H&S!

But the dailies look a bit shite!

Take your bets!

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Castlevania

Castlevania

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@BearyBear thanks, how is New Gold -71.93% YoY ..when i look at this chart its down from $3.00 to 90 cents over a year, i'm not nit-picking -

i'm i missing somin...or is it cos i'm dyslexic & just a bit thick ... ha-ha!:Geek:

image.jpeg.a440a3fcb07fb9759da2f896bba490c9.jpeg

Divide the current price (0.9) by last year’s price (3.0) and you’ll have 0.3 or 30% i.e. one share is now worth 30% of how much one share cost last year.

Take away 1. And you have -0.7 or a 70% loss.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted

 

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Welcome to the club!  I like trading sector ETFs, weekly, over the mid term.  I include countries/geos in that.  Been doing it for years.  Easier in the US with all their ETFs than here though.

Been a while since I researched but, other than Morningstar and the one you mention, here are a few other bookmarks (may be dead now though):

https://www.etfworld.co.uk/

https://www.etf.com/

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/

https://www.justetf.com/uk/find-etf.html

In the good old days before KIDs I selected what I called the best of breed ETF per sector.  A lot of work but gave me a sector list of the best ETFs (size, tracking performance, costs, etc).

The technicals for most of my high yield watchlist shares are negative and I'm waiting for a buy signal before buying.  That maybe a few weeks away. 

In the meantime, I opened a trading FTSE short.  I may have hit gold and bought on the right shoulder of a H&S pattern, or just a pullback for the summer.

Should have done it earlier when I got the buy signal so missed quite a pop today but I expect a possible retrace so could buy more and am looking mid-term. 

Mid-term for me.  That's where the money and my availability lies.  IMO, best for trading sectors.  I'm not interested in (or available for) being glued to my screen day trading and scalping a few pounds.

 

Cheers Harley,much appreciated

I'm trading these via IG over the short term.Much less volatile than picking individual US housebuilders or AMZN/FB/AAPL.and there's a plethora of ETF's avaialble for all my needs.I was trying indices trading but managing the divi flow was a pain and an utter distraction from the main purpose of short term trading.

WHne the markets bottoming then we'll be looking to put some away longer term.

 

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Things are moving quite rapidly, we will be lucky if the US-China trade war doesnt end up with bullets flying.  Its a little worrying when two superpowers are starting to take chunks out of each other and the markets reaction is "meh".

loooking at the market ,some sectors looking very oversold in the near term.I'm daring to even think of going long semiconductoirs.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Cheers Harley,much appreciated

I'm trading these via IG over the short term.Much less volatile than picking individual US housebuilders or AMZN/FB/AAPL.and there's a plethora of ETF's avaialble for all my needs.I was trying indices trading but managing the divi flow was a pain and an utter distraction from the main purpose of short term trading.

WHne the markets bottoming then we'll be looking to put some away longer term.

I really must see about rejoining IG.  Maybe a shareholder discount?  For now, after a broker suitability questionnaire, its FTSE short and ultra short ETFs for me.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Divide the current price (0.9) by last year’s price (3.0) and you’ll have 0.3 or 30% i.e. one share is now worth 30% of how much one share cost last year.

Take away 1. And you have -0.7 or a 70% loss.

i see...thanks!

anyway all i see is i'm down 70% & i've only held 'em 6 months ! still i'm NOT bothered as  ...my SGC are up 3% haha!xD

 

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Harley said:

I really must see about rejoining IG.  Maybe a shareholder discount?  For now, after a broker suitability questionnaire, its FTSE short and ultra short ETFs for me.

Yeah I can see the purpose of those now.I've had some reasonable nibbles on AMZN but the charts are like a lottery,you leave a lot to chance and less to your judgement on when to move.

Found an interesting one via IG SQQQ

https://etfdb.com/etf/SQQQ/

QQQ-can't work out what Pepsi is doing there???B|

https://etfdb.com/etf/QQQ/

All 104 Holdings

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, kibuc said:

That's USD as opposed to CAD. NewGold is listed both in New York and Toronto. 

Kibuc ......you got a view on where the sector is headed currently?I'm looking at XAU and it jsut keeps dribbling down.Sizing up Tranche 3 of PM purchases(few copper plays in there).It looks to me like it's turned using monthlies.

There looks to be some good value out there,including some copper plays?

Obviously don't want to put you on the spot/DYOR ,feel free to stay out of the debate.etc...

 

 

 

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Kibuc ......you got a view on where the sector is headed currently?I'm looking at XAU and it jsut keeps dribbling down.Sizing up Tranche 3 of PM purchases(few copper plays in there).It looks to me like it's turned using monthlies.

There looks to be some good value out there,including some copper plays?

Obviously don't want to put you on the spot/DYOR ,feel free to stay out of the debate.etc...

 

 

 

There's quite a few people expecting copper to do well based on declining inventories but I'm not prepared to make any plays on a purely industrial metal. If there's a deflationary bust then the most likely short-term direction is down not up imho, and that's when true bargains should emerge. However, if technicals indicate that copper is oversold then who am I to argue? I don't do TA.

For the next cycle it might be worth looking into Gold-Copper deposits, like the one that (barely) keeps New Gold afloat in New Afton, or Harmony's Wafi-Golpu project. If I believed in higher copper prices together with gold, New Gold would definitely receive a lot of my attention at today's prices.

 

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0x80

0x80

Posted
Posted

Apologies for butting in but you know, public forum and all that... :-)

I'm no expert but for copper-gold,  IKN Mark has a few early stage picks like Regulus Resources (disclosure: I have a couple K just for speculation).

https://twitter.com/ikn_mark?lang=en

Anyway, I'm sure many on here have read his stuff before, just thought I'd add it for newbies like myself.

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0x80

0x80

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, sam1994 said:

Watch this week's This Week

Interesting economic analysis.

I started watching that, had to smile when Andre Neil said "busts follow booms, there's been no boom".

sp500.png

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, 0x80 said:

Apologies for butting in but you know, public forum and all that... :-)

I'm no expert but for copper-gold,  IKN Mark has a few early stage picks like Regulus Resources (disclosure: I have a couple K just for speculation).

https://twitter.com/ikn_mark?lang=en

Anyway, I'm sure many on here have read his stuff before, just thought I'd add it for newbies like myself.

I always thought of AntaKori as a copper deposit, gold mineralization at 0.25g/t is basically dirt and would never get mined on it's own. It's used as a by-product to drive down the overall AISC.

I think Regulus valuation confirms that line of thinking as it's been mostly agnostic to gold prices, although there's always a caveat of them being in exploration stages and hugely influenced by drilling results.

 

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0x80

0x80

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I always thought of AntaKori as a copper deposit, gold mineralization at 0.25oz/t is basically dirt and would never get mined on it's own. It's used as a by-product to drive down the overall AISC.

I think Regulus valuation confirms that line of thinking as it's been mostly agnostic to gold prices, although there's always a caveat of them being in exploration stages and hugely influenced by drilling results.

 

Interesting, thanks. Note to self, don't buy stock based on what you read on twitter!

EDIT: that sounds like I'm blaming IKN Mark's recommendation, I'm not....I clearly didn't understand what I was buying.

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Majorpain

Majorpain

Posted
Posted

D6moPqnW4AA3x3Q.png:large

Reason #1 why silver is struggling IMO, until China stops importing copper/base metals and the mines stop producing base metals with their silver byproduct, then the primary silver producers will be subdued.  When the happens silver will be the place to be IMO, timing is all on the communists so timing is problematic to say the least.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Posted
Posted

@DurhamBorn Royal Mail shares UP this morning +11p now £2.09 boy this is some roller coaster market!

did ya manage to get any? or are ya busy LOOKING for RYS bargains! :Beer:

 

EDIT: FTSE UP - £ UP....maybe cos that treasonous C**T is GOING/LEAVING being kicked out on 7 JUNE! ...HOORAY!:Jumping:

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, 0x80 said:

Interesting, thanks. Note to self, don't buy stock based on what you read on twitter!

EDIT: that sounds like I'm blaming IKN Mark's recommendation, I'm not....I clearly didn't understand what I was buying.

Don't buy stock based on what you read on DOSBODS either ;)

I follow Mark on twitter and I think he sees Regulus as a copper play as well. A good person to follow if you have high tolerance for sizeable egos ;)

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janch

janch

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Standard Life Aberdeen -23.16% YoY
Vodafone -36.74% YoY
Metro Bank -76.76% YoY
Centrica -29.38% YoY
Royal Bank of Scotland -23.35% YoY
Purplebricks -76.43% YoY
SSE -24.14% YoY
Barclays -25.68% YoY
Sainsbury -36.76% YoY
Debenhams -100% YoY
Countrywide -90.12% YoY
Thomas Cook Group -89.84% YoY
Sports Direct -33.30% YoY
Royal Mail -61.49% YoY

I do have a few on that list but I'm holding my nerve...........our day will come.  In retrospect I bought too soon:( But as I'm new to this game I obviously still have a lot to learn:D So far I'm down around 14% but it could be worse...........I could have some New Gold!

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 0x80 said:

Interesting, thanks. Note to self, don't buy stock based on what you read on twitter!

EDIT: that sounds like I'm blaming IKN Mark's recommendation, I'm not....I clearly didn't understand what I was buying.

IKN Mark is very good.The reason I adopt a more 'spray n pray' attitude and defer to people like Kibuc/Majorpain/DB is that they understand these things a lot more than I do.

The thing is with IKN is that he's honest (as far as i can see and genuine-unusual in itself for a letter writer-has a long record of calling BS when needed)

We have some regulus as well .

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

D6moPqnW4AA3x3Q.png:large

Reason #1 why silver is struggling IMO, until China stops importing copper/base metals and the mines stop producing base metals with their silver byproduct, then the primary silver producers will be subdued.  When the happens silver will be the place to be IMO, timing is all on the communists so timing is problematic to say the least.

Like that line of thought MP.Given teh major driving role they've played extending stimulus since 08,then that follows.Might as well explain gold/silver ratio being around historical extremems possibly -but I'm no geologist.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, janch said:

I do have a few on that list but I'm holding my nerve...........our day will come.  In retrospect I bought too soon:( But as I'm new to this game I obviously still have a lot to learn:D So far I'm down around 14% but it could be worse...........I could have some New Gold!

I've got New Gold and Eldorado.

Best not to panic buy/sell.Check out Anglo Am's 205/16 chart for the ride from hell-and they're a blue chip.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, kibuc said:

There's quite a few people expecting copper to do well based on declining inventories but I'm not prepared to make any plays on a purely industrial metal. If there's a deflationary bust then the most likely short-term direction is down not up imho, and that's when true bargains should emerge. However, if technicals indicate that copper is oversold then who am I to argue? I don't do TA.

For the next cycle it might be worth looking into Gold-Copper deposits, like the one that (barely) keeps New Gold afloat in New Afton, or Harmony's Wafi-Golpu project. If I believed in higher copper prices together with gold, New Gold would definitely receive a lot of my attention at today's prices.

 

I see your logic.I think I've been reading too many copper bulls.

Technicals on some more liquid shares are pointing to weekly bottoms  ie medium term eg Freeport.And it does appear to be on it's arse.

In terms of the commodity I have zero expereince using technicals on them,don't know how they react.I find you have to study charts over years before you see the patterns and it also takes time yto find indicators that work for you.Shares is one thign and sometimes different sectors behave differently,so my comment is purely re the commodity co.s

Deflationary bust will likely see gold move up as CB's get into trouble,and then you're playing on the copper/gold production mix.

Funny you shoudl mention harmony and Copper/GOld givne I'm runnign my slide rule over adding some Freeport/HMY as part of tranche 3.

The more I read,the more I realise I know very little about thsi sector.

Ref New Gold,I've heard a few talking up their revival prospects,is it possible?

 

 

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