Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I see your logic.I think I've been reading too many copper bulls.

Technicals on some more liquid shares are pointing to weekly bottoms  ie medium term eg Freeport.And it does appear to be on it's arse.

In terms of the commodity I have zero expereince using technicals on them,don't know how they react.I find you have to study charts over years before you see the patterns and it also takes time yto find indicators that work for you.Shares is one thign and sometimes different sectors behave differently,so my comment is purely re the commodity co.s

Deflationary bust will likely see gold move up as CB's get into trouble,and then you're playing on the copper/gold production mix.

Funny you shoudl mention harmony and Copper/GOld givne I'm runnign my slide rule over adding some Freeport/HMY as part of tranche 3.

The more I read,the more I realise I know very little about thsi sector.

Ref New Gold,I've heard a few talking up their revival prospects,is it possible?

 

 

I threw in a towel on New Gold after they'd delivered an absolute stinker of a guidance for 2019 (and rightfully dropped like a stone). They are trying to fix their operations at Rainy River but those U$ 500mln bonds maturing in Nov 2022 are looming. High risk/high reward at current prices, above my personal risk treshold at the moment but I might revisit if they get RR in order and present a reasonable plan for dealing with debt that doesn't include gold or copper at fantasy prices.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Castlevania

I should get my SIPP top up soon (a few hundred pounds) for the money I put in just before the end of the last financial year. I’m tempted to put it all on New Gold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've got New Gold and Eldorado.

Best not to panic buy/sell.Check out Anglo Am's 205/16 chart for the ride from hell-and they're a blue chip.

My god what prompted it to increase 6 fold in the last 3 years. I guess that is a good example of what could happen to some of the miners we have bought. I can see what DB means that if gold or silver runs some of the miners could go up 20 or 30 times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nicolas Turgeon
On 23/05/2019 at 20:14, BearyBear said:

PMs deserve their own list, I've created that one on ProRealTime just by adding some of the companies mentioned in this thread. I do own a few from the list, small sizes though so I don't care much.

Alexco Resource Corp -24.46% YoY
Eldorado Gold Corp -42.87% YoY
Endeavour Silver -41.30% YoY
Fortuna Silver Mines -54.89% YoY
Great Panther Mining -44.31% YoY
Harmony Gold -3.43% YoY
International Tower Hill -30.90% YoY
New Gold -71.93% YoY
Sandstorm Gold +11.44% YoY
Sibanye Gold +24.63% YoY
Yamana Gold -32.05% YoY

for comparison:

si.f -11.01% YoY
gc.f -0.38% YoY

Thanks for this. Its prompted me to come out of my longterm lurking and actually post something!

With the potential surge in PM's just around the corner, I was looking to split my PM miners allocation across gold and silver miners. GDX/GDXJ looks like a sensible bet for gold, but as we can't buy SIL in the UK (unless anyone has a hot tip!) I thought it would be good to make a long(ish) list of Silver miners and then between us Team Dosbods can wittle it down to 6-10 that people might be interested in taking a punt on. I really like the sound of @DurhamBorn's idea of having some with good technical setup, and then some which are 'rubber bands'  ready to spring back up in price, and spread the silver portfolio across the two types.

So for starters, here's an alphabetical list on the current 25 contents of the SIL ETF :-

ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP
AMERICAS SILVER CORP
BUENAVENTURA-ADR
COEUR MINING INC
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP
FIRST MAJESTIC S
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC
FRESNILLO PLC
GOLD RESOURCE CORP
GREAT PANTHER MINING LTD
HECLA MINING CO
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC
INDUSTRIAS PENOL
KOREA ZINC CO LTD
MAG SILVER CORP
MCEWEN MINING INC
MINERA FRISCO
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP
POLYMETAL
SILVERCORP METALS INC
SILVERCREST METALS INC
SSR MINING INC
VOLCAN CIA MIN-B
WHEATON PRECIOUS

 

Does anyone with  better chart knowledge than me (so pretty much anyone!) want to mark off a few that have good technical setups?

And also can I just say thanks to all the contributors on here - a great range of perspectives and backgrounds! I follow the thread closely but rarely get to post.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
5 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Thanks for this. Its prompted me to come out of my longterm lurking and actually post something!

With the potential surge in PM's just around the corner, I was looking to split my PM miners allocation across gold and silver miners. GDX/GDXJ looks like a sensible bet for gold, but as we can't buy SIL in the UK (unless anyone has a hot tip!) I thought it would be good to make a long(ish) list of Silver miners and then between us Team Dosbods can wittle it down to 6-10 that people might be interested in taking a punt on. I really like the sound of @DurhamBorn's idea of having some with good technical setup, and then some which are 'rubber bands'  ready to spring back up in price, and spread the silver portfolio across the two types.

So for starters, here's an alphabetical list on the current 25 contents of the SIL ETF :-

ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP
AMERICAS SILVER CORP
BUENAVENTURA-ADR
COEUR MINING INC
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP
FIRST MAJESTIC S
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC
FRESNILLO PLC
GOLD RESOURCE CORP
GREAT PANTHER MINING LTD
HECLA MINING CO
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC
INDUSTRIAS PENOL
KOREA ZINC CO LTD
MAG SILVER CORP
MCEWEN MINING INC
MINERA FRISCO
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP
POLYMETAL
SILVERCORP METALS INC
SILVERCREST METALS INC
SSR MINING INC
VOLCAN CIA MIN-B
WHEATON PRECIOUS

 

Does anyone with  better chart knowledge than me (so pretty much anyone!) want to mark off a few that have good technical setups?

And also can I just say thanks to all the contributors on here - a great range of perspectives and backgrounds! I follow the thread closely but rarely get to post.

As I've said elsewhere,I use a lot of TA but have really struggled applying it to PM miners and commodities more generally.key thing is to try and find someone who has a vague understanding of the risk reward for each stock.

From memory,IKN has been dismissive of Hecla,Mcewen but you really need the likes of DB @kibuc @Majorpain et al to explain the pros and cons.The more I study the PM sector,the more I realise I don't know.

 

Edit to add,over the course of the thread msot of these shares have been discussed,but there's 350 pages to sift through....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
On 25/05/2019 at 01:07, Talking Monkey said:

My god what prompted it to increase 6 fold in the last 3 years. I guess that is a good example of what could happen to some of the miners we have bought. I can see what DB means that if gold or silver runs some of the miners could go up 20 or 30 times

Got oversold-there were reasons but clearly not valid for the scale of the sell off given the recovery..The major institutions do this regularly, ie sell off a sector/company way beyond where it should be jsut because someone said sell and started the viciouscircle off..During the tech bubble there were loads of these sort of trades availalble for a limited window.

All the PM miners offer substantial upside if PM prices head back up to say $1500.After that you have to remember to sell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

,over the course of the thread msot of these shares have been discussed,but there's 350 pages to sift through....

I've found the search feature on this site a useful tool, when theres something as specific as a company name.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Does anyone with  better chart knowledge than me (so pretty much anyone!) want to mark off a few that have good technical setups?

Its worthwhile spending some time training yourself how to invest, its a much better way to do it than trusting someone on the internet who may talk a good game but has no track record.  Lifelong skill that takes care of excess money if you can get good at it, and only you will be able to find out how you like to do it and most importantly, what you are successful at.

Small amounts in a couple of solid companies is no bad start, PM miners are risky and volatile so whilst it can be exciting, if you get your timing wrong you could lose 80% over 7 years if you bought at the wrong time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe

For those of you that have an interest in Bitcoin, BTC is now around the $8.6k mark with no substantial pull backs so far.

Quick recap, I’ve always had a tiny bit in various projects I liked the look of (e.g dev team, roadmaps etc). At one time I had quite a lot of ETH, but sold way too early (don’t we all).

The TA was pretty much bang on for BTC, so my plan was always to go back in under $4k. I ended up buying twice at the $4kish and $3.5k mark.

I then took 25% profit when it hit the first real support level at $5.5k. That went straight in my ISA on STG when it dropped. 

Since then my holding is now split into mainly 3, BTC, XMR, ETH and small amount for speculative interest like FTM.

As much as I know some regard it akin to tulips on here. But there’s certainly some interesting developments in the crypto world happening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn

The PM miners are only for experienced traders,or people who can stomach the swings.Iv found the sector has provided good moves over the last few years but its key to average in when they are down (for instance Endeavour Silver should be bought from $2.90CAD down in 7% ladders.),and also to take some profits when they ride up.I took 50% profit from some earlier in the year and have now bought them back.

However for people well underwater now is a very good time to average in IMO.Silver should see $190 an oz during the next cycle (up to 2026) and some of the stocks will 10 bag,maybe the odd 100 bag.I am now back fully invested in PM stocks,and will sell 30% next if/when GDX hits $26.5.Hold the rest,and if there is another pull back then re-enter to 100%.

As for pain,i think the Nasdaq and S+P is where its going to be.There is a very real chance both could go down 70%,just as many UK stocks have gone down similar amounts and to PE ratios of 7 to 9.For people who remain fully invested a 15% allocation to silver and the PM miners at these levels would likely protect them if the US markets do trend lower.

What most investors forget as well is silver and gold always goes through bear/bull markets,but some of the stocks that will go down 80% or more will never recover.The debt deflation is happening.High cash flow companies cutting divis to speed up de-leverage,or stopping increases to do the same is the start.They are the winners.Others wont be so lucky as cash flow goes up in smoke.Inflation wont be far behind.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
On 25/05/2019 at 00:07, Talking Monkey said:

My god what prompted it to increase 6 fold in the last 3 years. I guess that is a good example of what could happen to some of the miners we have bought. I can see what DB means that if gold or silver runs some of the miners could go up 20 or 30 times

Me and my dad had £12k in Anglo between us and we sold it for £32k .We bought in ladders and my first buy was at £9.40 my last ladder hit at £4.80 and at one point we were down 40%.I also did 80% up on our money in BHP Billiton,.The mistake i made there was i didnt ladder in as i concentrated on Anglo and should of had more BHP as well.My dad sold his last Anglo at £21,he has been buying Vod,BT,BAE,Royal Mail with the money.

Anglo nearly sold a brand new met coal mine in Australia that cost billions to build just as it went into service for a big loss to cover debts.A few days before they signed to sell met coal shot up in price then doubled and more.Just before they were going to sell they were losing $10 a tonne ($100 a tonne price),you can imagine what happened to profits when it went to $200 a tonne.This is what happens in the sector.The SA gold miners make around $100 an oz on gold at $1300 if they are lucky but have maybe 100 million oz in the ground.If gold goes to $2000 they will 10 bag,$5000 50 bag.Its a crazy industry,and gut wrenching on the way down.

I expect some silver miners will 100 bag in the next cycle,though like you say id be very happy if one of mine did 20x and across the portfolio 5x would be nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aside from the ethics, any thought on the buy now pay later companies? Out here Afterpay and Zip are flying on the ASX, think there’s too much hot money chasing them (they have global ambition and scalability), are there any similar fintech’s that operate in uk/eu that might have upside (given they could become even more popular in a downturn)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Aside from the ethics, any thought on the buy now pay later companies? Out here Afterpay and Zip are flying on the ASX, think there’s too much hot money chasing them (they have global ambition and scalability), are there any similar fintech’s that operate in uk/eu that might have upside (given they could become even more popular in a downturn)?

As with car finance and current mortgages, they depend upon cheap debt to operate.  If you get 5% interest rates they will find it difficult to raise the capital to operate versus sticking it in the bank.

In a downturn there is a strong chance that it will become "Buy now pay never" as people lose their jobs, chasing after people with no assets, who are likely to use these services, will be a complete waste of time IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chinese Bank went under on Friday, they are starting to feel the burn from Trump.  The CCP will be doing everything in its power to prevent a bank run lest the entire thing unwinds.

Im wondering when they shut down Bitcoin within the great firewall, seems to be the best way to get cash out of China at the moment which is reflecting in the current price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass

Chinese steel manufacturer Baowu Group is planning to relocate two blast furnaces from Xinjiang to Cambodia.

China becoming too expensive?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RickyBacker
39 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Chinese steel manufacturer Baowu Group is planning to relocate two blast furnaces from Xinjiang to Cambodia.

China becoming too expensive?

Definitely becoming 'more' expensive, cost of living and wages increasing to compensate. My wife's family have a factory in Shenzhen and the rent has just increased. They're also having to get more robotics/machinery to reduce salary costs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 26/05/2019 at 16:12, reformed nice guy said:

US Yield curve still inverted, 6month higher than 10 year now.

 

 

chart (8).png

Totally expected as divested end of last week 🙄

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sibanye have bought Lonmin

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/investors-back-sibanye-takeover-to-create-platinum-giant

Quote

Lonmin Plc investors have backed the platinum producer’s takeover by Sibanye Gold Ltd., bringing to an end a company that was once part of a business empire synonymous with British capitalism in Africa.

Sibanye’s all-share takeover was backed by 98.87% of votes cast at a meeting in London, based on provisional results, passing the required threshold of 75%. The vote is a triumph for Sibanye Chief Executive Officer Neal Froneman, a prolific deal-maker who faced investor concerns that his offer undervalues Lonmin’s assets. Sibanye investors approved the deal earlier in the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can get the full In Gold We Trust report 2019 now. It was released today:

https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en

 

In Gold We Trust report

The gold standard of gold research

Since 2007, the annual In Gold We Trust report is THE authoritative report on gold investing, and is required reading for anyone interested in the precious metal market. As a team, Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek analyze the state of the global financial markets, monetary dynamics and their influence on gold price developments like no other.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Me and my dad had £12k in Anglo between us and we sold it for £32k .We bought in ladders and my first buy was at £9.40 my last ladder hit at £4.80 and at one point we were down 40%.I also did 80% up on our money in BHP Billiton,.The mistake i made there was i didnt ladder in as i concentrated on Anglo and should of had more BHP as well.My dad sold his last Anglo at £21,he has been buying Vod,BT,BAE,Royal Mail with the money.

Anglo nearly sold a brand new met coal mine in Australia that cost billions to build just as it went into service for a big loss to cover debts.A few days before they signed to sell met coal shot up in price then doubled and more.Just before they were going to sell they were losing $10 a tonne ($100 a tonne price),you can imagine what happened to profits when it went to $200 a tonne.This is what happens in the sector.The SA gold miners make around $100 an oz on gold at $1300 if they are lucky but have maybe 100 million oz in the ground.If gold goes to $2000 they will 10 bag,$5000 50 bag.Its a crazy industry,and gut wrenching on the way down.

I expect some silver miners will 100 bag in the next cycle,though like you say id be very happy if one of mine did 20x and across the portfolio 5x would be nice.

Thank you for the explanation DB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BurntBread
6 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Chinese Bank went under on Friday, they are starting to feel the burn from Trump.  The CCP will be doing everything in its power to prevent a bank run lest the entire thing unwinds.

Im wondering when they shut down Bitcoin within the great firewall, seems to be the best way to get cash out of China at the moment which is reflecting in the current price.

Thank you: I missed that Baoshang Bank news. I wonder if anything else will follow? Nothing strange happening on Shibor yet...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nicolas Turgeon
On 26/05/2019 at 19:36, sancho panza said:

As I've said elsewhere,I use a lot of TA but have really struggled applying it to PM miners and commodities more generally.key thing is to try and find someone who has a vague understanding of the risk reward for each stock.

From memory,IKN has been dismissive of Hecla,Mcewen but you really need the likes of DB @kibuc @Majorpain et al to explain the pros and cons.The more I study the PM sector,the more I realise I don't know.

 

Edit to add,over the course of the thread msot of these shares have been discussed,but there's 350 pages to sift through....

Thanks Sancho - agreed - the more I look into the sector the more I realise there is to learn! Perhaps it's more a case of spray 'n' pray....

On 26/05/2019 at 20:56, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've found the search feature on this site a useful tool, when theres something as specific as a company name.

 

Good advice B&M. There's plenty of mentions of many of the companies. I guess I'm more interested in the state of them right now, this month, which is likely to be different to last time they were looked at. Becasue the next buying opportunity for the PM sector is potentially over the next month or so and the sands will have shifted.

On 27/05/2019 at 08:10, Majorpain said:

Its worthwhile spending some time training yourself how to invest, its a much better way to do it than trusting someone on the internet who may talk a good game but has no track record.  Lifelong skill that takes care of excess money if you can get good at it, and only you will be able to find out how you like to do it and most importantly, what you are successful at.

Small amounts in a couple of solid companies is no bad start, PM miners are risky and volatile so whilst it can be exciting, if you get your timing wrong you could lose 80% over 7 years if you bought at the wrong time. 

Always good to keep learning Major! So true about the PM's being volatile. Definitely 'exciting' (more like stressful!) - I know what you mean!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, BurntBread said:

Thank you: I missed that Baoshang Bank news. I wonder if anything else will follow? Nothing strange happening on Shibor yet...

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-baoshang-bank-takeover-why-it-matters-2019-5?r=US&IR=T

Good article as I was interested.

For the Chinese to be meddling in the market, instead of just extend and pretend like the last 5 years, something serious must be up behind the scenes.

Shibor will be controlled by state owned banks, like everything in China (Baoshang had 2% NPL!) figures are manipulated to what the CCP wills.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
On 28/05/2019 at 10:41, DurhamBorn said:

Me and my dad had £12k in Anglo between us and we sold it for £32k .We bought in ladders and my first buy was at £9.40 my last ladder hit at £4.80 and at one point we were down 40%.I also did 80% up on our money in BHP Billiton,.The mistake i made there was i didnt ladder in as i concentrated on Anglo and should of had more BHP as well.My dad sold his last Anglo at £21,he has been buying Vod,BT,BAE,Royal Mail with the money.

Anglo nearly sold a brand new met coal mine in Australia that cost billions to build just as it went into service for a big loss to cover debts.A few days before they signed to sell met coal shot up in price then doubled and more.Just before they were going to sell they were losing $10 a tonne ($100 a tonne price),you can imagine what happened to profits when it went to $200 a tonne.This is what happens in the sector.The SA gold miners make around $100 an oz on gold at $1300 if they are lucky but have maybe 100 million oz in the ground.If gold goes to $2000 they will 10 bag,$5000 50 bag.Its a crazy industry,and gut wrenching on the way down.

I expect some silver miners will 100 bag in the next cycle,though like you say id be very happy if one of mine did 20x and across the portfolio 5x would be nice.

One of the best posts we've had on here for demonstrating the stomach churning nature of investing in individual stocks in terms of both upside and downside.It resonates with me as over the years I've had loads of holdings that got pummelled initially (think blue chips in the tech boom-BLT hit £1.30 ffs) but then went on to do ok.Commodities sector just amplifies that.PM sector then makes the  wider commodities sector look like a walk in the park.As DB says you need a strong stomach for the PM's and a strategy that I didn't have in 2017 when I was lining up our Tranche 1 investments-all pray and no spray.

There are some that don't come back for sure but as you get older and hopefully wiser you see the error of your ways and that quite often there was a structural reason that that asset class imploded-think tech stocks in the noughties,banking stocks in 08.I lost  us money in Northern Rock for a few in the family.At the time I had no idea what FRB was and how credit was created.Those losses made me research Basel 2,FRB etc etc and enabled me to realise that there was a huge crisis coming and get out of HSBC/Stan/RBS in time.Still waiting to buy HSBC and Stan back.

In terms of multi bagging,I 'm not sure.What I do know for certain is that you can buy some PM miners at prices from 2000 versus buying Intertek at £50.I'll take my chances here.

 

 

The reality is that you 

5 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Thanks Sancho - agreed - the more I look into the sector the more I realise there is to learn! Perhaps it's more a case of spray 'n' pray....

 

If I'd known then what I'd have known now,I'd have buried the habit of a lifetime and bought the ETF's.

Having said that I've learned a shedload and that's no bad thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...