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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-baoshang-bank-takeover-why-it-matters-2019-5?r=US&IR=T

Good article as I was interested.

For the Chinese to be meddling in the market, instead of just extend and pretend like the last 5 years, something serious must be up behind the scenes.

Shibor will be controlled by state owned banks, like everything in China (Baoshang had 2% NPL!) figures are manipulated to what the CCP wills.

 

 

Super read MP,thanks for posting.It's hard to see how Shanghai's property market collapse doesn't end in tears given the average flat  there is many mulitples of local incomes.Running alongside the collapse in Vancouver perhaps.

Great last sentence.

'Trade war or not, deleveraging the financial system was going to be painful for China.'

 

 

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On 26/05/2019 at 19:36, sancho panza said:

As I've said elsewhere,I use a lot of TA but have really struggled applying it to PM miners

Same here.  

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On 27/05/2019 at 08:57, Sideysid said:

For those of you that have an interest in Bitcoin, BTC is now around the $8.6k mark with no substantial pull backs so far.

I do now thanks.  I need to be more open to new ideas.  BTC could have been a great trade for me.  Fits with my TA,  had good buy signals and everything.  That would have been a very profitable trade. 

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On 26/05/2019 at 14:23, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Does anyone with  better chart knowledge than me (so pretty much anyone!) want to mark off a few that have good technical setups?

I'll look (for fun) to see if any have historically behaved in TA terms but this has never worked with GDX.  I focus on a specific technical setup which I screen the market for, rather than look at specific stocks to see if they might pop.  TA is a big field so needs that sort of specialisation.

However, I like what you've done thanks. It would be nice to get a subset of maybe the better ones. 

Maybe another approach is to compare the chart for each one to SIL to see which are highly correlated and therefore good proxies.  Say 5 of those may give us a good proxy for SIL.

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King Penda

Where is the best place to buy physical silver then I might buy 1ks worth and hope it increases enough to buy a very nice holiday abroad in a few years I don’t like the concept of paying vat on it or am I better off just geting an ounce of gold ?

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1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

Where is the best place to buy physical silver then I might buy 1ks worth and hope it increases enough to buy a very nice holiday abroad in a few years I don’t like the concept of paying vat on it or am I better off just geting an ounce of gold ?

Bear in mind the premium on physical silver is very high... you pay about 28% above spot price even without VAT, from somewhere like CoinInvest ( also trade as Silver-to-Go ) in Germany.

They're nice to have, but given the premium if I was planning to invest £1000 I'd maybe go for a tube of 25 of them, plus 3 gold sovereigns. That would come to around £1100. 

Or for a better upside with slightly higher risk, just a couple of silver Brits as keepsakes, a couple of sovereigns, and rest split between a gold miner and a silver miner. ( around £230 each).  

 

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14 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Where is the best place to buy physical silver then I might buy 1ks worth and hope it increases enough to buy a very nice holiday abroad in a few years I don’t like the concept of paying vat on it or am I better off just geting an ounce of gold ?

I would go with something like five of the 10oz Queen Beasts silver coins. Reason being, they have the collector value as well as the physical. Once they are stopped for that year and another design introduced they add on a premium. Then if silver skyrockets, winner winner.

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On 23/05/2019 at 21:04, Harley said:

Love days like today.  Volatility is good (throws up opportunities at some point) and gives you a chance to see the strong stocks versus the weak ones (e.g. ULVR held up well).

So many of my watch list are showing the same technicals of very low momentum (a stochastic below 20%) and a negative MACD cross which may signal further falls (bargains) ahead. 

On the FTSE, we are at an important point (as always!).  We are possibly either at trend support (so go up from here) or at the RHS of a bearish head and shoulders pattern (so further falls).

On the weeklies, the start of a past bull from 13 Jun 2016 showed a similar series of patterns like today's so that's a risk to shorting or not buying a pullback now. 

But the monthlies are showing a series of lower highs and lower lows on a number of indicators and this could be a rounding top.  But then MACD is up and this could be an inverse H&S!

But the dailies look a bit shite!

Take your bets!

Possibly looking further bearish on the dailies:

. Failed to meet the channel mid point, broke channel, and in the process of kissing the channel bottom? (as resistance?)

. Stochastics failed to rally, now falling

. MACD cross, negative

Take your bets!

Capture.thumb.PNG.62fe648a33fab2beb3239a31524feaab.PNG

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Nicolas Turgeon
19 hours ago, Harley said:

I'll look (for fun) to see if any have historically behaved in TA terms but this has never worked with GDX.  I focus on a specific technical setup which I screen the market for, rather than look at specific stocks to see if they might pop.  TA is a big field so needs that sort of specialisation.

However, I like what you've done thanks. It would be nice to get a subset of maybe the better ones. 

Maybe another approach is to compare the chart for each one to SIL to see which are highly correlated and therefore good proxies.  Say 5 of those may give us a good proxy for SIL.

Great idea for an approach Harley. If we can get it narrowed down to about 5 or 6 like you say then that would give a focus for averaging into some stocks.

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33 minutes ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Great idea for an approach Harley. If we can get it narrowed down to about 5 or 6 like you say then that would give a focus for averaging into some stocks.

I'd like to share my approach to the silver miners, not because I think it is the correct one - I am down 22% since the beginning of April after all! - but it might help others to formulate their own approach. I'm not recommending any of the companies I mention naturally, DYOR and all that.

I started by looking at the components of the SIL index, starting with the largest and working my way down. I discarded ones that were streaming deal companies like Wheaton as I wanted ones that had resources and were mainly involved in mining, refining and selling. I also discarded ones that weren't primarily focused on silver such as Korea Zinc. I wanted ones that might react strongly to an increasing silver price. I also tried to get a mix of geographical locations, though I am mainly in the Americas.

I then added ones that others had mentioned, after a little bit of research naturally. Though I was a bit lazy and sometimes just took a punt if I liked the name!

So far I have shares in the following (in alphabetical order):

  • Alexco
  • Coeur
  • Endeavour
  • First Majestic
  • Fortuna
  • Fresnillo
  • Great Panther
  • Hecla
  • Pan American Silver

I don't do any TA on the individual shares. In fact the only thing vaguely technical I'm following at the moment is the price of gold and silver. Gold looks like it might have bottomed out but I'm waiting for it to go consistently back above $1300 before I add any more gold miners (probably via the iShares SPGP ETF). For silver it looks like we are still in a down trend and I'd like to see that reverse, ideally get silver back over $15 and heading up before committing more money to the silver miners. I know that will mean missing out on the bottom price but I'd rather do that than risk it continue dropping.

For info since the beginning of April, my physical gold holding is up 2.34%, silver down 1.39%, gold miners down 10.65% and silver miners down 22.64%.

 

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21 hours ago, Harley said:

.......Maybe another approach is to compare the chart for each one to SIL to see which are highly correlated and therefore good proxies.  Say 5 of those may give us a good proxy for SIL.

So that was fun!

So, 24 stock holdings with the top 4 accounting for 49% of the ETF's Net Assets by value.  But one stock is only on the Korean exchange so 3 stocks accounting for 37%.  So lets add the next two (around 5% each) to get to 5 stocks at 47%.  The remaining stock holdings range from 4.9% to 0.2%.

Now let's chart the 5 year performance for these 5 stocks against SIL (in blue) using weekly price data:

Capture.thumb.PNG.6b957d0216c84bda49ccdee8f5f97bf0.PNG

So all quite well behaved until mid 2016 when some pulled ahead and have stayed ahead and even the others increased their divergence from SIL with only WPM staying sort of close.  Interestingly, all performed better than SIL which means some of the other minnow holdings we ignored must have crashed and burned to bring SIL down relative to the well performing top 5.  Presumably why some of them might now be minnow holdings!  I have not looked at the historic holdings for SIL but maybe a lot of churn.    BTW, Korea Zinc (the Korean one we ignored) can be ignored as that tracked SIL quite well.  Sure enough, the ones at the bottom of the holdings list like Minera Frisco have bombed (88% for them).  But then Silvercrest went up 2,583% (but even now is only 1.3% of ETF Net Assets)!

And then we can look at the 1 year performance for the 5 stocks against SIL (in blue) to see if there might possibly be any consistency in the findings across time periods:

Capture.thumb.PNG.c94879fba13a31f6967fb75ae03ee46e.PNG

Which gives us quite a similar story?  Er, no!

The next avenue would be to zoom in on when I got buy signals for SIL and see relative performance of these 5 holdings then.  Maybe they behave better when things really matter.  But that would be for another day.

So maybe you could have done better than SIL by holding the top holdings, but would have had quite a more exciting ride, if SIL wasn't exciting enough!  But could not easily replicate SIL by just buying a few of the top holdings.

Bottom line for now, SIL is trying to herd a bunch of alley cats so good luck!

Caveat:  I may have made errors in pulling this stuff together as well as made erroneous or incomplete conclusions!

Update: I ran SIL through my trading system and apart from Jan 16, a bit of a widow maker given the counter bear rallies since then.  The reason I trade setups and not specific stocks.

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1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

For info since the beginning of April, my physical gold holding is up 2.34%, silver down 1.39%, gold miners down 10.65% and silver miners down 22.64%.

An excellent saying I heard - "Buy gold to preserve wealth, add a little bit of silver for excitement, and gold miners once you have preserved enough capital!".  He never mentioned silver miners!

Tracking the PM prices and seeing how the miners interact with that (leads and lags) sounds a smart approach.

Apart from that SIL rally in early 2016, SIL has under performed the silver price:

Capture.thumb.PNG.6351e43c22af8ddb11262b3218f7eb15.PNG

Similar with gold:

Capture.thumb.PNG.e673f3c40aa077dec599450fc76bef9d.PNG

The miners are trading vehicles, but hard to trade, at least from a TA POV.  Another option may be trading gold and silver price derivatives such as ultra ETFs but again far more risk.

And going off tangent to be naughty, compare gold and silver against the stock markets (OK, without divs) over the longer term:

Capture.thumb.PNG.3633f9182f02432d833c49ab406dc97d.PNG

Which only shows the raw power of asset allocations!

PS: Despite all the above, those technicals on GDX (even SIL) are beginning to look interesting, but timing is everything else the machine will churn you up and spit you out!!!!!

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9 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

firstgroup looking to sell US greyhound bus business in news this morning

Up 42% since mid Dec 18!  Missed that!  But no divs!

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

An excellent saying I heard - "Buy gold to preserve wealth, add a little bit of silver for excitement, and gold miners once you have preserved enough capital!".  He never mentioned silver miners!

Tracking the PM prices and seeing how the miners interact with that (leads and lags) sounds a smart approach.

Apart from that SIL rally in early 2016, SIL has under performed the silver price:

Capture.thumb.PNG.6351e43c22af8ddb11262b3218f7eb15.PNG

Similar with gold:

Capture.thumb.PNG.e673f3c40aa077dec599450fc76bef9d.PNG

The miners are trading vehicles, but hard to trade, at least from a TA POV.  Another option may be trading gold and silver price derivatives such as ultra ETFs but again far more risk.

And going off tangent to be naughty, compare gold and silver against the stock markets (OK, without divs) over the longer term:

Capture.thumb.PNG.3633f9182f02432d833c49ab406dc97d.PNG

Which only shows the raw power of asset allocations!

PS: Despite all the above, those technicals on GDX (even SIL) are beginning to look interesting, but timing is everything else the machine will churn you up and spit you out!!!!!

My first rule is NOT to look at the share prices of the PM Miners any more than once a month! Seeing a wild daily rollercoaster will cause most folks to ditch and run.

My second rule is diversification. I allocate 20% of my portfolio to PM's, and rebalance that annually. Of the 20% allocation, I split that 4 ways - 30% Physical -buying Gold or Silver depending on their relative performance (the current Gold/Silver ratio massively suggests to me buying silver) - 30% held in vaults - 30% held in miners and 10% in PM ETF's as a way to quickly rebalance as needed.

With a mechanical approach like this I know that I'll sell high and buy low and spread my risk around without the need to worry about violent short term movements.

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sancho panza

Not an interest rate rise in sight.Debt deflation cometh.

 

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/uks-4-biggest-shopping-centre-landlords-face-long-term-risk-from-cvas/

Four of the UK’s biggest retail landlords are heavily exposed to struggling retailers and CVAs, according to new research.

Analysis from UBS has warned that around 20 per cent of shopping centre floorspace being let by the likes of British Land, Landsec, Hammerson and Intu are retailers that are either at risk of launching an insolvency procedure or are already in the midst of a CVA or administration.

UBS’s data came from 1477 retailers and 5666 stores across 50 shopping centres, and was based on weighing up floorspace exposure to struggling retailers rather than the typical industry metric of rental income.

For that reason, the investment bank said its findings were “significantly higher than the companies’ reported rent impacted by CVAs, which ranges from 2.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent of rental income”.

In addition, many of the struggling retailers have managed to either avoid store closures or succeed in securing some lower rents in their portfolios.

“The big unknown is the hits to the rental income,” UBS head of European real estate Osmaan Malik said.

“All of the retailers could decide ‘we’re going to go through CVAs, we’re going to cut our rents or we are going to move out of the centres that we don’t want to be in’, so it’s very difficult to judge.”

UBS said its analysis backed up its “already cautious” sentiments of the retail property sector.

It also reiterated its forecast of a further 20 per cent fall in the valuations of for shopping centres over the next two to three years.

 

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sancho panza

The credit machine making a funny noise.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/05/29/italian-banks-are-at-it-again-share-re-crushed/

The Italia All Share Banks Index dropped 18% so far in May, almost double the 10% fall registered by the Euro Stoxx 600 banking index during the same period:

Italy-bank-index-2019-05-29.png

Italy’s biggest bank, Unicredit, saw its shares fall through the €10 level for the third time this year. The stock has lost 20% of its value in May, and is close to its all-time low, registered in July 2016 when Italy’s banking system was being shaken and stirred by the slow-motion collapse of then-third largest lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS). Unicredit’s shares are down 97% since the Italian banking-hype peak in May 2007.

MPS, now 68% state owned following a controversial taxpayer funded bailout in 2017, is already reverting to type. In the first quarter of this year its net profits slumped 85% to €27.9 million euros as shrinking revenues and larger write-downs on problem loans due to Italy’s weak economy took their toll. MPS’s shares, now at €1.07, are down 36% year to date and 78% since the bank’s shares were re-floated in October 2017 .

 

Ever since pouring €8 billion of public funds into MPS to stave off its collapse, the government’s “investment” has done nothing but lose value. Every now and then, a passing reference is made to the possibility of re-privatizing the bank, but in reality there are no interested buyers, partly because MPS’ balance sheet, still infested with non-performing loans (NPLs), keeps getting messier as the Italian economy stagnates, but also because there are no banks in Italy healthy enough to take on such a burden.

Mid-sized lender Banca Carige, which failed earlier this year and was temporarily propped up by the government, ran out of potential rescuers two week ago after asset management behemoth BlackRock, having seen what it would get into, walked away from the table. If Carige can’t find a last-minute buyer in the next few weeks, European bank supervisors say it should be closed. But that runs contrary to Rome’s plan for a state-funded rescue. And relations between Brussels and Rome could be about to get even more fraught.

Unicredit has its sights set on acquiring Germany’s second largest lender Commerzbank, but labor representatives on Commerzbank’s supervisory board have vowed to do whatever it takes to block the merger.

As for Italy’s second largest lender, Intesa Saopaolo, it is still trying to fully digest the two Veneto-based banks it picked up in a shotgun marriage in 2017. Intesa has seen its market cap plunge 20% in the last month and 40% since May 15, 2018, by which date the formation of the current heavily populist, big spending, anti-EU establishment coalition government had become a foregone certainty. Italy’s third and fourth largest lenders, Banco BPM and Unione di Banche Italiane, are also respectively down 31% and 20% in the last month and 45% and 47% since May 15.

One of the reasons for the latest deterioration is the ongoing, escalating standoff between Brussels and Rome over Italy’s 2019 budget and other matters. For the moment neither side shows any inclination to back down.

On Monday Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, flush from La Lega’s victory in the European elections, said he now has a mandate to push through tax cuts and fight for changes to EU budget rules. Which went down like a lead balloon in Brussels, which hit back by threatening to fine Italy €4 billion over its rising debt and structural deficit levels.

Since then, Italy’s 10-year risk premium — the spread between Italian ten-year bond yields and their German counterparts — has surged almost 20 basis points to 289 basis points, its highest level since February. Given the constellation of threats and dangers circling Italy’s economy, this is arguably lower than it actually should be. Italy’s current 10-year yield of 2.675% pales in comparison with the 7.56% the Italian government was paying in November 2011, during the peak of the Eurozone debt crisis.

But it’s still three times as high as Spain’s risk premium (95 basis points), 2.6 times higher than Portugal’s (108 basis points) and just 39 points lower than Greece’s (329 basis points). In other words, the price of risk for Italian public debt is rising just as the price of risk for the public debt of just about all other Club Med economies, even that of Greece, is falling.

And that is particularly bad news for Italian banks, which are notorious hoarders of Italian treasuries. After the Bank of Italy, they are the second largest holders of Italian debt. Italian government bonds make up 20% of the banks’ entire asset base. While other Euro area banks, including even those in Spain, Germany and France, were net sellers of domestic government bonds in April, Italian banks doubled down on their purchases, buying up €7 billion more.

Over the last 12 months, Italian banks have increased their holdings of domestic government debt by €62 billion. This issue has been termed the “doom loop,” the interdependence between shaky banks and shaky government debt: When one gets in trouble, it will make the condition of the other even worse, thus creating a feedback loop.

As the ECB has gradually exited the market with the ending of QE, and with other market players unwilling and able to take up the slack, Italy’s banks and other financial institutions made up the difference. But they do so at huge risk to their already fragile financial health. By Don Quijones.

Just bumping along the bottom, from hopeless to hope and back to hopeless. Read…  Deutsche Bank Death Spiral Hits Historic Low. European Banks Get Re-Hammered

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On 29/05/2019 at 17:48, Harley said:

I do now thanks.  I need to be more open to new ideas.  BTC could have been a great trade for me.  Fits with my TA,  had good buy signals and everything.  That would have been a very profitable trade. 

BTC looks like it’s here to stay and is deemed a currency (albeit a reserve one) whether people accept it or not (even though some people would argue the Venezuela Bolivia is a currency). Yes if electricity is off in a SHTF scenario then it’s useless, but then so is a physical PM ETF.

TA works on short term movements or day trading but is at the mercy of sector manipulation long term. The big banks no doubt have enough BTC to control direction by now. As long as BTC remains stable or in a gradual bull trend, then TA is very straight forward against stable alt coins (not speculative pump and dump shit coins) using support/resistance levels and general MACD.

The caveat being is that they can’t print more. With a max of 21 million BTC and a lot of those lost/not mined a more conservative estimate would be 18 million in circulation. That doesn’t leave a lot for the worlds 36 million millionaires once accepted in hedge funds as a store of value as traditional fiat continues to devalue.

You can pay for shopping/coffee with crypto, so view it the same as any other currency trading pairs.  

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

For those of us in RM...interesting article from: Roland Head - Fool.co.uk 31 May 2019

Is the Royal Mail share price a falling knife to catch after plummeting 65%?

When investing in stocks, it’s all too easy to fall in love with your favourites. When this happens, we often fail to see risks and weaknesses that should have been obvious.

Royal Mail (LSE: RMG) is a potential example. Shares in the postal group have fallen by about 65% from their 2018 peak.

In my piece last weekend, I explained why I’m cautiously optimistic about the outlook for long-term investors in this business. Although I hinted at some of the risks facing the firm, I focused on the positives.

Here, I’m going to take the other side of the argument and highlight three risks facing investors in this 500 year-old business.

1. Big spender

Royal Mail boss Rico Back plans to spend another £1.8bn to help transform the business into a modern, parcel-focused service.

This new spend comes on top of the £2.1bn that’s already been invested in the business since its flotation in 2013. To put that in context, Royal Mail has only reported £2.4bn of profit over that period.

What these numbers show us is that Royal Mail is a capital-intensive business — it needs to invest a lot of money in its operations in order to be able to function. That’s okay if the business can generate attractive profit margins. Unfortunately, that’s not been true in recent years.

2. Low margins

Royal Mail reported an underlying operating margin of 3.6% last year. This included the ongoing modernisation programme, but excluded some one-off items. The group’s return on capital employed — which compares operating profit to capital invested in the firm’s assets — was just 6.3%.

What this means for shareholders is that much of the cash generated by the business is needed for reinvestment. Generous dividends may not be affordable — indeed the payout will be cut this year.

These figures highlight one of the big challenges for the chief executive. His services are always seen as a cost to customers — a necessary evil. No one wants to pay for postage. We do it because we need to. This means customers are always open to switching to cheaper, rival services.

In my view, Royal Mail’s parcel services — a key driver of growth — will always face intense competition on price. That could be a problem, as I’ll explain.

3. Tough competition

Royal Mail has more than 145,000 employees. According to the firm, they enjoy “the best terms and conditions in the UK delivery industry.” One reason for this is that, unlike some rival couriers, the group’s directly-employed workforce is represented by powerful unions.

Without getting into the politics of the situation, it’s probably fair to say this business is more vulnerable to disruption from industrial action than most other parcel firms.

The reality is that large parcel customers such as Amazon won’t hesitate to take advantage of cheaper rival services. In my view, this means Royal Mail needs to overcome its higher structural costs and find a way to gain an advantage from its unique delivery and collection network.

I believe this is possible. Indeed, on balance, I continue to rate the shares as a long-term buy. But the risks I’ve looked at are real and could make it hard for RMG to maintain attractive levels of shareholder returns.

 

...AND back at the ranch my FAV subject!

UK house price growth slows amid ‘subdued’ consumer confidence

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-price-growth-slows-065207267.html

Property prices dropped 0.2% month on month in May. yada...yada...

this is from Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide  They mean the DICKHEAD bullsh*ting C**T:Old:

areas i'm checking weekly are DOWN reductions are around £10k to £20K on £300k houses - even the EA's are telling me its a BUYERS market and the venders are open to offers, so...

I put a £250K offer on a house in SE thats for sale at £300K (reduced from 325k since xmas) on purpleshitingbricks -

AND the vender told me bugger off!:o

 

 

 

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Nicolas Turgeon
6 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Thanks for this Sid, and for the video. If I was the whale trying to buy up 25% of all bitcoin I'd be a bit annoyed at this publicity potentially driving the price up. Glad I've got my allocation in already - but tempted to increase it now!

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Nicolas Turgeon
20 hours ago, Harley said:

.....

The next avenue would be to zoom in on when I got buy signals for SIL and see relative performance of these 5 holdings then.  Maybe they behave better when things really matter.  But that would be for another day.

So maybe you could have done better than SIL by holding the top holdings, but would have had quite a more exciting ride, if SIL wasn't exciting enough!  But could not easily replicate SIL by just buying a few of the top holdings.

Bottom line for now, SIL is trying to herd a bunch of alley cats so good luck!

Caveat:  I may have made errors in pulling this stuff together as well as made erroneous or incomplete conclusions!

Update: I ran SIL through my trading system and apart from Jan 16, a bit of a widow maker given the counter bear rallies since then.  The reason I trade setups and not specific stocks.

Really interesting work Harley - thank you.It shows how an ETF works as an average of all its holdings - the winners cancel out the losers over the long term!

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10 minutes ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Thanks for this Sid, and for the video. If I was the whale trying to buy up 25% of all bitcoin I'd be a bit annoyed at this publicity potentially driving the price up. Glad I've got my allocation in already - but tempted to increase it now!

Going on from that we here in the UK can now get Coinbase Visa debit card.

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-launches-crypto-visa-debit-card-for-uk-and-eu-customers

Obviously fees would be an issue with BTC, but that’s where other day to day low fee use crypto comes in.

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