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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

ha yes lets hope not.Actually we might see some pull backs as there are some big gaps to fill so there might be some more reduced stickers yet.However its up 8% today as we speak.Lots of energy in rubber band stocks once you get a turn,but if we dont turn they provide lots of pain.

Incredible to think Woodford had to suspend his fund,but if he is quick he can buy the rubber band stocks and get things back in shape,sell them on the run up and ladder into some reflation stocks.Imagine if before it goes back trading the top ten holdings become silver and goldies xD

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MrXxx said:

Well that's why, you mentioned it on here and everyone went out and bought it!...just hope YRS didn't see your post today and bought in otherwise it will be `bombing` tomorrow! :-) :-) :-) 

 

xDxDxD

I bought Endeavour Silver & Yamana Gold on 13 May - i mentioned it a few pages back, ...and YEAH!

They went DOWN a few days later:Old: and you had around a 4 day window of opportunity to get 'em CHEAPER tham me!:D

anyway they are nearly up to what i paid on 13 May.

i see my new gold stuck i'm only down 67% on thesexD

my best performer is Harmony Gold up 40% THANKS @DurhamBornand when all is said and done my portfolio is only down -14%.

so not too bad in the grand scheme of things...

 

BTW, i went to Blackbushe Car Auction yesterday, NEVER been there before...cos fedup in my area trying to buy a 2nd-hand car from scammer-dim-wits!

had my eye on 4 hondas and could NOT beleve it, they went well over my buget, however these were VERY good LOW millage cars, i mean one honda 2009 had 11,000 miles it looked BRAND NEW - i even checked out the history online a BRILLANT basically NEW car ...biding started at £3,100 which shocked me...was expecting around 2k...AND final bid £4,200!

BUT...some GOOD News!

there are 3 auction halls and hall 1 i hadn't even looked in, so took a mosy on over ...well feck-me WHAT a place!

cars going for 100 quid!xD ...i kid you NOT...this was the REDUCED Section, how the feck could I of missed it!:Old:

this hall was FULL of bottom feeder bargain hunters oh boy did i feel at home here!

one car came in, and the auctioner couldn't get a 100 quid starting bid, so he reduced it to 99 ...an indian guy stepped up and asked did he say 99p!

the auctioner retored back in a NICE laughable way... what the f**k do you think this palce is the POUND SHOP!xD

one dealer chap who looked like he'd just got out of bed with a wisky bottle inside his shirt bought 6 cars while i stood there in AMAZMENT!

he did not pay over £250 for any car! the only down side to these motors is they are HIGH millage, some even at 170,000, but hey-hoo ya take a chance cos most of 'em had good bodywork, and of course the problem for us private buyers is we pay more commsion, anyhow i'm going back next Monday for MORE FUN!:Jumping:

I will say this there is NO RECESSION in the used car market thats for sure!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I work in the construction industry and things still seem to be busy. As others have said, it usually dips quickly as we head towards a recession. The canary for us is builders ringing up asking for tendering opportunities. 

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35 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I will say this there is NO RECESSION in the used car market thats for sure!

If anything prices on used cars seem to be UP at the moment. I don't have full market data but purely anecdotal based on my own search. I was looking at ~2015 Seat Leon 1.4 ACT's and they are £1000 UP on 6months ago. I'm not sure if its seasonal or not though.

Luckily the GFs 2005 Civic has gone through its MOT with some spannering this year (bushes have finally become an issue) - I want to replace it but its hard to find value at the moment. If there is a seasonality in the used car market I can wait it out until winter.

 

Sold out of IBTL today. Anyone still in/have thoughts? I did after its recent run up and think that we may be close to a resolution of the B issue which may see a rise in the £.

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Noallegiance
1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

For anyone interested, Powell to talk up stocks at 2:45pm UK time

You can watch live here: https://www.chicagofed.org/conference

Interest rate reductions and QE4 inbound 'when the next crisis occurs'...... You know..... That crisis we wouldn't see in our lifetime.....

I guess there'll be another 'Peter Schiff was Right' video.

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DoINeedOne


https://www.ft.com/content/f333e3c0-869f-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

Hargreaves Lansdown shares fell on Tuesday as the fund platform was dragged into the deepening crisis at Neil Woodford’s investment group.

Its customers held 31 per cent of the now-gated Equity Income Fund at the end of last year.

Clients have withdrawn their money from the Equity Income Fund on a net basis for 23 consecutive months.

He also runs £3.5bn of funds for clients of FTSE 100 wealth manager St James’s Place, whose shares fell 2 per cent on Tuesday morning. Clients of SJP have contributed around a third of Mr Woodford’s total assets under management.

Hargreaves has long been listed as a “related party” on Woodford’s flagship equity fund because of its large stakes in the Equity Income fund. Six of HL’s own-brand funds have invested in Woodford Equity income, amounting to around £700m at the end of March, with 14 per cent of the company’s £3bn Income and Growth fund invested in Mr Woodford’s funds.

Emma Wall, head of investment research at Hargreaves, said: “When the fund resumes trading, the value of the fund will be based on the value of the underlying holdings, so in the event that shares that Woodford owns increase in value the fund will be repriced accordingly, and vice-versa.” She added: “We understand there will be some concern among investors, but it will not affect their ability to buy and sell Hargreaves multi-manager funds, we are in communication with the regulator and the administrator and continue to review the situation and make ongoing decisions.” Mr McGinnis said shareholders in Hargreaves feared its reputation among retail investors may suffer and it could lose business as a result. He said that investors who had bought the Woodford fund on Hargreaves’ recommendations may “now blame Hargreaves” and move their money to another investment manager.

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28 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Interest rate reductions and QE4 inbound 'when the next crisis occurs'...... You know..... That crisis we wouldn't see in our lifetime.....

I guess there'll be another 'Peter Schiff was Right' video.

Biggest takeaway for me BY FAR was his suggestion to drop the word "unconventional" tools, get ready for everything and more on steroids!

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Noallegiance
1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Biggest takeaway for me BY FAR was his suggestion to drop the word "unconventional" tools, get ready for everything and more on steroids!

These people are insanely clever for themselves and at the same time monstrously stupid for the rest of us.

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UnconventionalWisdom
4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Housing secretary: Let young people raid pension pots for housing Young people should have access to pension pots to help fund the deposit for their first home, housing secretary James Brokenshire said on Monday, raising the prospect of a rewrite of the UK’s pension rules.

Saw this, bonkers! Young people don't have a big pension pot. Is the guy delusional. 

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UnconventionalWisdom
4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Then it's the waiting game for rates back to 0% and QE to be unleashed once more (guaranteed IMO), so my original time frame of buying in summer 2020 may now be 2021

You are prob right because the central bankers are idiots, but there has to come a point when people turn round and say, "these methods aren't changing anything, sort it out another way"

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I find the whole Woodford fiasco illuminating as I clearly remember his Midas days at Invesco (perpetual ?) And then striking off on his own.  

He was clearly very talented for the skill set and stock picking in those times but it's like others have said here that he couldn't take those glasses off and change tread.  I guess some of the more outlandish picks db alluded to him getting mixed up in would have ticked all the right boxes correctly at one time.

Harbinger of things to come?

I'm personally seeing some price inflation in the supermarkets but not obvious across the board.  Definitely some lidls projects jumped close to 20% and Tesco's keeping tighter stock management as well as no longer ridiculous 90% bargains.  Still don't rate their fresh bread though old or not.  Elsewhere all I hear is the laments of margins being crushed 

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40 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Saw this, bonkers! Young people don't have a big pension pot. Is the guy delusional. 

Well 50% of them don't anyway, as they will be using any surplus salary paying off their student loans until they retire!

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Bricks & Mortar
5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Housing secretary: Let young people raid pension pots for housing

In an ideal world, the Chancellor and Minister for pensions would head this off at the pass. 

Oh!  Silly me.  They'll be long gone before this blows up.  Carry on then.

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

I'm personally seeing some price inflation in the supermarkets but not obvious across the board.  Definitely some lidls projects jumped close to 20% and Tesco's keeping tighter stock management as well as no longer ridiculous 90% bargains.  Still don't rate their fresh bread though old or not.  Elsewhere all I hear is the laments of margins being crushe

I agree with this. Did a Lidl shop recently for pizza making items, grated mozzerella £1.79 im sure it was 89p last time i went and those choccy croissonts 10 in a bag £1.69, cmon they wernt that much a year ago.

 

Meanwhile,

I am still monthley drip feeding into my dosbodders portfolio, currently down 14%  inc fees and divis.

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King Penda

Well. Tesco’s fish pies ready meal things have increased from a quid to £1.20 that’s a chunky rise luckily Aldi do one for 70p

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6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Biggest takeaway for me BY FAR was his suggestion to drop the word "unconventional" tools, get ready for everything and more on steroids!

After QE and all the other stuff they've done nothing is unconventional anymore. Even straightout printing money and handing to people in the street.

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8 hours ago, Errol said:

After QE and all the other stuff they've done nothing is unconventional anymore. Even straightout printing money and handing to people in the street.

And because the majority of the electorate are financially illiterate/disinterested the move of wealth to a select few will just continue happening!

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Democorruptcy
18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

LE2 average price is circa £230k average wage circa £23.5k......................crazy.Only going to end in tears

BoE are happy with no more than 15% of mortgages OVER 4.5x household income. 23.5k x 2 x 4.5 = 212k.

19 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Housing and house renovation is still looking strong, I think it will be the last domino to fall after people start getting laid off.  Hopefully in the long run housing costs will fall and stop sucking income out of the real economy, average house prices should be at the £120,000 level IMO.  That's a nasty 50% drop.

 

Minimum wage is £8.21 25 or over, £7.70 at 21 to 24. Taking the BoE income multipliers above at the middle of the wages, say £8 for a couple is 16 x 40 x 52 x 4.5  = £150k. That's for people earning the minimum wage, before any deposit with no equity from a previous house.

 

 

 

 

 

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Democorruptcy
16 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:


https://www.ft.com/content/f333e3c0-869f-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

Hargreaves Lansdown shares fell on Tuesday as the fund platform was dragged into the deepening crisis at Neil Woodford’s investment group.

Its customers held 31 per cent of the now-gated Equity Income Fund at the end of last year.

Clients have withdrawn their money from the Equity Income Fund on a net basis for 23 consecutive months.

He also runs £3.5bn of funds for clients of FTSE 100 wealth manager St James’s Place, whose shares fell 2 per cent on Tuesday morning. Clients of SJP have contributed around a third of Mr Woodford’s total assets under management.

Hargreaves has long been listed as a “related party” on Woodford’s flagship equity fund because of its large stakes in the Equity Income fund. Six of HL’s own-brand funds have invested in Woodford Equity income, amounting to around £700m at the end of March, with 14 per cent of the company’s £3bn Income and Growth fund invested in Mr Woodford’s funds.

Emma Wall, head of investment research at Hargreaves, said: “When the fund resumes trading, the value of the fund will be based on the value of the underlying holdings, so in the event that shares that Woodford owns increase in value the fund will be repriced accordingly, and vice-versa.” She added: “We understand there will be some concern among investors, but it will not affect their ability to buy and sell Hargreaves multi-manager funds, we are in communication with the regulator and the administrator and continue to review the situation and make ongoing decisions.” Mr McGinnis said shareholders in Hargreaves feared its reputation among retail investors may suffer and it could lose business as a result. He said that investors who had bought the Woodford fund on Hargreaves’ recommendations may “now blame Hargreaves” and move their money to another investment manager.

I have never invested in the Woodford funds but have registered for updates for HL's Wealth 50.

I got an update today from HL about Woodford. You can well understand HL clients blaming them, when it's in their "Wealth" instead of a "Poor" 50. It cannot be good for HL

 

 

 

 

hlw.jpg

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What to do if you're one of Woodford's fund hostages

Epic clickbait from the Mail this morning!

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Minimum wage is £8.21 25 or over, £7.70 at 21 to 24. Taking the BoE income multipliers above at the middle of the wages, say £8 for a couple is 16 x 40 x 52 x 4.5  = £150k. That's for people earning the minimum wage, before any deposit with no equity from a previous house.

I was very rough when I did it, average UK salary for single person just under £30k x 4 is £120k.  With an appropriate amount of economic turmoil (looking at you deutsche bank) I don't think that's unrealistic, but it of course depends on how bad and how long the economy takes a hit (and BOE firing up the printing press).  That's before you get into the nitty gritty of how enthusiastic the banks will be lending 4x salary to a couple of with ropey job prospects.

Corbyn's popularity among the young is mainly the result of being priced out of living in the UK IMO, house prices must come down but the result of that will be less wealth effect amongst the older generations.  Rock meet hard place!

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Democorruptcy
6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

 

Epic clickbait from the Mail this morning!

I was very rough when I did it, average UK salary for single person just under £30k x 4 is £120k.  With an appropriate amount of economic turmoil (looking at you deutsche bank) I don't think that's unrealistic, but it of course depends on how bad and how long the economy takes a hit (and BOE firing up the printing press).  That's before you get into the nitty gritty of how enthusiastic the banks will be lending 4x salary to a couple of with ropey job prospects.

Corbyn's popularity among the young is mainly the result of being priced out of living in the UK IMO, house prices must come down but the result of that will be less wealth effect amongst the older generations.  Rock meet hard place!

Single person mortgages, how quaint and old fashioned! They have had another 10 years since the crash, for people who bought houses using one income to sell them to people happy to use two.

Corbyn's popularity among the young at the last election was his fake promise to abolish tuition fees.

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14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Single person mortgages, how quaint and old fashioned! They have had another 10 years since the crash, for people who bought houses using one income to sell them to people happy to use two.

Corbyn's popularity among the young at the last election was his fake promise to abolish tuition fees.

Taking only two incomes into consideration is also very 1990 and probably ménage à trois phobic.

It might sound tongue-in-cheek, but when you think about it, the latest initiative by Lloyds or whatever to let people's parents put their money into a saving account as deposit actually makes as many as 4 (or is it 6?) people and their money involved in a mortgage on a single property.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Cor blimey...GOLD is doing well in the last few days, if this breaks the double top at $1340 and continues up for a few days...

Looks like i'll be up to see @DurhamBorn AND pay for his fish&chips! :o ...boy is that going to be problematic for a TIGHT-WAD like me!xD

image.thumb.jpeg.954895da8f8b54c911d1bba27653cec2.jpeg

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21 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Luckily the GFs 2005 Civic has gone through its MOT with some spannering this year (bushes have finally become an issue) - I want to replace it but its hard to find value at the moment. If there is a seasonality in the used car market I can wait it out until winter.

Used car prices seem extremely strong at the moment. I'm looking at city cars and superminis and in my part of the country they're around £2.5k for a 9 or 10 year old example. O.o

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