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IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Bobthebuilder
6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  Some colleagues did some work at a shed and came out shocked when they found out the margins.  Couldn't stop talking about it.

What's "dry fix"?  Is that like just screwing the stuff together or full cabinet install excluding sinks and plumbing?

I quite like Ikea though (continental fit besides), but not checked the prices.

I've seem some truly horrendous installs in my time by so called specialists. 

This margin business is quite an eye opener.  I was amazed when looking over the shoulder of the manager at a builders merchants.  Simple things like roofing slates, 25% to 30% gross.  Then the installer's markup.

Dry fix is install cabinets only , no gas or electrical work.

In terms of quality of fit its like you said, you can buy a toilet for £50 get it installed by a monkey and it will cost you a grand in leak repairs.

I agree, fitting standards are shocking even danger to life TBH.

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Herbert took over from Trevor Finn on 1 April. Finn retired unexpectedly after almost 30 years at the helm.

 

Retired, yes ok right. Nothing whatsoever to do with pressure from institutional investors then.

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10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

In terms of quality of fit its like you said, you can buy a toilet for £50 get it installed by a monkey and it will cost you a grand in leak repairs.

I actually found the opposite.  Bought a cheapo as a temp fix but is great.  Needed a temp fix as had to return two far more expensive ones which were crap!  Sure, a bit of work to get things to fit given mismatching castings but a bit of work and fine.  Have an off the floor and Gerbit frame to install.  Muchas more so better be good.  At least the bowl casting is good compared with the last expensive one I sent back which must have been made in some beginners pottery class!  The amount of shite I see with a QS signature next to it!  Really is the wild west out there.

Back on topic - same with this investing malarkey.  Screw ups all over the place leaving you wondering in disbelief.

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Bobthebuilder
12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I actually found the opposite.  Bought a cheapo as a temp fix but is great.  Needed a temp fix as had to return two far more expensive ones which were crap!  Sure, a bit of work to get things to fit given mismatching castings but a bit of work and fine.  Have an off the floor and Gerbit frame to install.  Muchas more so better be good.  At least the bowl casting is good compared with the last expensive one I sent back which must have been made in some beginners pottery class!  The amount of shite I see with a QS signature next to it!  Really is the wild west out there.

Back on topic - same with this investing malarkey.  Screw ups all over the place leaving you wondering in disbelief.

Wild west for sure, i install boilers for my sins, you should see the shit i see on a daily basis.

On topic, Howdens shares anyone?

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Wild west for sure, i install boilers for my sins, you should see the shit i see on a daily basis.

On topic, Howdens shares anyone?

A certain new hospital in the North East looks good on the outside but the main contractor still has teams running round fixing things after 4 years.  Roof leaks like feck.  Another was being charged £10k a week for two years till they got out of the contract in court, the least painful problem was they built the ablutions the wrong size so you couldn't open the toilet doors.  But they will still get away with screwing everyone on the price as zombie companies fuelled by QE are not doing the decent thing and going out of business (yet).

May just be me, but i really disliked Howdens in my limited dealings with them.

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

May just be me, but i really disliked Howdens in my limited dealings with them.

+1.  Could never deliver all your order on the agreed day.  Late items could take weeks.  Gear was often poor quality.  Extremely variable discount structure had me paying twice as much for a greenwich base as a small contractor as I did when buyer for a larger contractor.  I closed my account about a year ago. 

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Most people I work with are private school types, and compare their ridiculous prices paid  for kitchens. Another colleague was stating about paying £70k for a single floor extension to extend his kitchen which I thought was excessive, until another pointed out he’d paid nearly that for his kitchen alone. Absolute madness.

If I ever need a new one it’s an Ikea/Howdens jobby for me, and my father and me will fit it like we did his (he was gas safe then so would need someone in nowadays).

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A crypto update for those interested. BTC zig-zagging for some time from 7.5-8.5k (we’ll see soon if we’re heading for another breakout from here).

I’ve achieved my first target by day trading upwards and increasing my holding to before where I took 25% profit. I aim to double what I hold now to put 1/3 of my BTC holding on a nano ledger (hardware wallet) and forget, another 1/3 to continue day trading the final 1/3 to take profit once again if we do indeed approach previous highs.

My strategy consists on swing trading larger amounts between BTC, ETH and XMR, and small amounts on speculative tokens. My recent example of FTM which I spoke about last time netted me 0.5 BTC in a short period of time.

Heres where it gets a bit jargon filled. I pick ERC20 ICO/IEO tokens that have been confirmed as being listed on Binance DEX (Binance DEX is not CEX) as Binance is one of the biggest exchanges this will invariably cause a pump, especially in the run up to the listing. These tokens can be traded on idex, and usually require transferring to wallets in a specific time window for conversion to a Binance format. You can either sell back to ETH before this date (selling the news) on idex or wait in the designated wallet until conversion where a lot of the tokens will be ‘burned’ (i.e not converted in the allocated time-frame). Some countries are blacklisted from using DEXs so either require a VPN or use a proxy through Trust Wallet. So each of these stages release another demographic of users trying to buy in.

Once listed on DEX, there’s usually a pattern where a few weeks later they’ll be listed on the main CEX exchange which causes another pump. Again sell the news, or wait until listed on Binance CEX for yet another pump, sell convert in BTC, rinse and repeat. Some of these will be big projects with decent dev teams, white papers and road maps so maybe prudent to hold back a small allocation.

I view crypto as no different to penny stocks. The volatility is fine for me, as I’m way in front of my initial outlay and already taken profit. You can even leverage spread bet on crypto on the likes of BitMex, but I stay well away as it’s a step too far for me.

Again, the whole target for me is increasing my BTC holding. At this stage I have no interest if BTC is $5k or $10k. My overall belief is that BTC is a hedge (like all my other investments and pension) against devaluation of currency.

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TPTB are going full steam ahead to get on top of the exchanges and crypto with KYC regulation. They want their slice through taxation and to be in control.

https://medium.com/@JLawlerCal/how-kyc-may-unite-the-developed-world-de16b519a399

A lot of exchanges now require passport/driving licence and facial recognition to be verified.

You can’t have 18 year old basement dwelling, early adopting, crypto millionaires all over the world. It upsets the Apple cart somewhat, as the younger generation are supposed to be in a life of debt servitude, not taking shortcuts to the boomer plateau.

This could go one of two ways for total privacy crypto like XMR. It will either go parabolic as people use it in decentralised transactions. Or as it’s blacklisted from exchanges, nodes shut down, declared illegal for use and could become extremely difficult to use.

The following quote is interesting from the article.

Already in process . . . the technology solve.

The global financial institutions want to solve the global financial problem. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Barclays (among many others) are focusing resources. Goldman just pumped $250 million dollars into an office in Bengaluru, India, reducing KYC processing time by between 50% and 90%. JP Morgan released an open-source protocol earlier in 2019 that will help identify financial transactions. Barclays filed patents related to streamlining KYC processing as well. Beyond the enterprise-level, other institutions are expediting the KYC process, too. For example, leading crypto projects have many choices to outsource KYC services.[14]

Technology finds easy application in the KYC process. That’s where projects like Civic and Everynym[15] and foundations like the Sovrin Foundation come in. Proof of identity as a use case for distributed ledger technology is low hanging fruit. The zero-knowledge-proof, for instance, will verify that an identity is not restricted from transacting, but not disclose the actual identity of the applicant. Moreover, most KYC processes already use artificial intelligence with facial recognition capabilities as a strong first step. At the moment, these systems are backed up by human review; that requirement should not last long. It is not hard to picture biometric KYC.

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47 minutes ago, Durabo said:

"Between 2013 and 2018 more than half the sales in England made by Redrow, Bellway, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt and Persimmon involved Help to Buy."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48610977

Disgusting. I can't wait to see the next big idea that "solves" the housing crisis by further inflating prices...

I think here the `issue` will solve itself, when those who bought shabby built new builds via HTB find that they can only sell them on (and move up the ladder) by offering a sizeable discount...the problem however is those self same people that use HTB are financially `maxed out` so unless they get an inheritance will not be able to move up and/or find themselves in a new-built `style` negative equity.

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22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You can always buy linkers.

And they are a good investment as part of a diversified portfolio, but the LT Gilts are specifically there to benefit from deflation. If I got rid of them completely then I wouldn't have the balance needed to smooth the volatility in the portfolio. The fact that they have been one of the best performing assets of the last few years has been really helpful at a time when we have been waiting for our PM investments and selected stocks to take off.

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20 hours ago, Harley said:

You can buy a perfectly good bog in a box for not much more than £50.  Of course you feel poor by sadly dreaming of spending loads on the overpriced tat out there.

Sanitaryware is one of the big cons.  Just need to know what you're doing.  Price is not a very good guide.  Trick is to spend on the highlights, with some imagination.

I returned a £300 item the other day.  There I was all worried about getting a credit and the guy at the shop says the supplier will probably just tell him to put it in the skip sight unseen.  Not worth their hassle as cheap as chips for them!

And anyone wanna talk about kitchens?  I feel poor because I didn't spend the £30k++ my relatives did but bought and fitted just as good/similar a one for under £10k, all (appliances, electrician, etc) in.  And I overpaid!

People and money!

sorry Harley, not seeking to distract from the direction this thread has taken, but my original post was not referring to sanitaryware (appliances) but to sanitary ware (female hygiene products). Crazy source story of course, but tragically 'true' - true in the sense that its yet another example of the type of story/narrative that preoccupies our increasingly irrelevant TV news culture.   

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22 hours ago, Harley said:

Me too.  I have too much in cash but won't buy the other asset classes (up to their target allocations) until I get the signals and don't really want to over-allocate to say gold only to then move that into equities.  Tough one but at least it looks like things are beginning to move so hopefully soon.

thanks Harley, I suppose i've just got itchy feet and feeling impatient, and is probably one of those classic types of irrational (investment) behaviours, warned against and best avoided at all (personal financial) costs.    

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Democorruptcy
9 hours ago, MrXxx said:

I think here the `issue` will solve itself, when those who bought shabby built new builds via HTB find that they can only sell them on (and move up the ladder) by offering a sizeable discount...the problem however is those self same people that use HTB are financially `maxed out` so unless they get an inheritance will not be able to move up and/or find themselves in a new-built `style` negative equity.

That's why HTB was up to £600k and not limited to FTBs. Lots of the buyers were moving up with equity from a sale, so might not need to move up again.

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Cracking article here from the Evening Standard,

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/neil-woodford-s-woes-are-not-the-problem-liquidity-is-a4164666.html

The irony is the people selling out of Woodfords funds with a 20%+ loss are probably putting the money into funds heavily invested in FANG stocks,or other momentum plays that will get smashed down in a sell off.

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's why HTB was up to £600k and not limited to FTBs. Lots of the buyers were moving up with equity from a sale, so might not need to move up again.

Ah, but need and want are two different things completely...how many couples without children need a three/four bed house? :-)

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4 hours ago, JMD said:

sorry Harley, not seeking to distract from the direction this thread has taken, but my original post was not referring to sanitaryware (appliances) but to sanitary ware 

Wow, a first!  I've never managed a double off-topic before!  How boring so sorry y'all and I better start behaving!

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The irony is the people selling out of Woodfords funds with a 20%+ loss are probably putting the money into funds heavily invested in FANG stocks,or other momentum plays that will get smashed down in a sell off.

.....But just before I do, reminds me of the old ambush - cover the bug out route with the gun group - you do more damage on the retreat.  That's why they teach the SFs to advance and fight - not expected!

Must be a lot of peed off people, peed off with a lot of people, not just the man.  20% (probably more if you add the assumed general FTSE gain) doesn't just happen overnight. 

I learnt a while ago never to buy into anything new.  They always take a tumble before settling down.  Especially for ETFs.  The man just had too much money with too many expectations to invest, amongst a few other things.  

DOYOeffingR! 

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Bobthebuilder
10 minutes ago, Harley said:

....But just before I do, reminds me of the old ambush - cover the bug out route with the gun group - you do more damage on the retreat.  That's why they teach the SFs to advance and fight - not expected!

I like the cut of your gib. I grew up in Salisbury plain and many of my school mates ended up in the Paras and the Marines. Used to go drinking with them 20 years ago in Camden, never seen so self assured, take no bullshit from anyone but honest and peaceful guys as them lot. a joy to be around and memories that will last a lifetime.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Ah, but need and want are two different things completely...how many couples without children need a three/four bed house? :-)

You said need and want are different things. They may not need yet, just want. Being childless is not a condition of the scheme. Ignoring 20% of the price means they might be able to buy the largest house they cannot really afford, largely because banks will lend on it. It's clearly being used as a second (or more) step scheme.

Equity loans are available to first time buyers as well as homeowners looking to move

 

 

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Noallegiance
2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Ah, but need and want are two different things completely...how many couples without children need a three/four bed house? :-)

Conversation overheard today suggests that the indoctrination is so strong that 18-21 year old folk are not living youth like those of previous generations. They genuinely now feel that if they don't get their degree (don't get me started) whilst stunting spending on any kind of fun, they'll not get near owning a home.

Government and central bank policy touches all generations. 

Ignorance ain't so blissful.

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Castlevania
1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

You said need and want are different things. They may not need yet, just want. Being childless is not a condition of the scheme. Ignoring 20% of the price means they might be able to buy the largest house they cannot really afford, largely because banks will lend on it. It's clearly being used as a second (or more) step scheme.

Equity loans are available to first time buyers as well as homeowners looking to move

 

 

I thought they’d changed it so only first time buyers can use the scheme, as well as reduce the value of houses that can be bought to be more in line with local averages?

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UnconventionalWisdom
On 13/06/2019 at 02:34, Sideysid said:

Most people I work with are private school types, and compare their ridiculous prices paid  for kitchens. Another colleague was stating about paying £70k for a single floor extension to extend his kitchen which I thought was excessive, until another pointed out he’d paid nearly that for his kitchen alone. Absolute madness.

If I ever need a new one it’s an Ikea/Howdens jobby for me, and my father and me will fit it like we did his (he was gas safe then so would need someone in nowadays).

Someone I know said they had to pay a similar price for an extension. Apparently all the builders colluded with each other and looked at the increase in house value it would offer and charged a little less. Another reason we need house prices to come down

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Financial bulletin boards for the FTSE PM miners are pretty dead, even with the moves in PM's over the past few weeks.

Good contrarian sign IMO that the bottom is in and we are on the way up.

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8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Financial bulletin boards for the FTSE PM miners are pretty dead, even with the moves in PM's over the past few weeks.

Good contrarian sign IMO that the bottom is in and we are on the way up.

Gold looks strong but it still needs to break 1380 level to give us a proper buy signal.

Silver looks weak.

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