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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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21 hours ago, Starsend said:

Be interested in other people's views, DB? SP? Harley etc?

That's the arty bit.

Depends on (amongst others):

o Current retirement sum

o Years to retirement

o Years in retirement

o Annual £ amount required in retirement

o Gross investment return rate

o Personal (real) Inflation rate

o Desired legacies

o Amount of any required sinking funds during retirement

Many calculators out there to play around with these assumptions to give you a set that looks right such as: https://www.mycalculators.com/ca/retcalc1m.html.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Getting a sense that things are starting to get very interesting again out there in the global macro environment, just some recent noteworthy points:

- Today is June FOMC meeting day, will Powell stand his ground in defiance of Trump's threats for lower rates? And will markets tank as a result? Will he indicate easing at next month's meeting to compensate? What happens today through to July's meeting will probably decide whether the SPX goes into full melt up mode or not. Remember the Fed cuts in 50bp drops. US economists obviously getting a bit twitchy about NIRP.

- Yesterday, Draghi planted the QE/easing stimulus seed. BOE still suggesting a hike may be needed due to weak £, but I think they're just sitting on their hands and waiting to see what everyone else does, trying to prop it up best they can for now.

- Global negative yielding debt spiked to a new record of $12.5 trillion yesterday after Draghi's comments.

- Lot's of low/negative yield bond records being set, Denmark just 1bp away from ALL govt bonds negative, Australia 10 yr record low, Switzerland/Germany/Netherlands/Austria/Finland & Sweden 10 yr bonds all negative!

- I'm not a gold bug like many of you, but just worth mentioning that it seems some kind of temporary pull back is possible as it approaches high end of 10 year DSI

- US trucking tonnage rolling over (no pun intended), trucking industry now experiencing a significant downturn (remember, this sector was on fire until a few months ago) https://www.businessinsider.com/truckers-warn-bloodbath-companies-bankrupt-lower-expectations-2019-6

- Another UK economy success story, Premier Inn, has just posted 4.6% drop in sales for first 3 months of 2019, stating "weak trading conditions". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48687824

 

I still maintain Powell is a bit of wildcard here.There are a lot less perma doves on the Fed than when he started and the market has a pretty poor record of predicting fed cuts.Currently,unemployment low,corporate profits high,stock markets high etc etc.

QE/NIRP has destroyed risk pricing across a range of assets and has created a greater economic threat than the one it was meant to solve.It's tunred me into a goldbug I guess.

Wolf has a regular piece on who's buying US debt.Suffice to say foreign holders are slowly cutting

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/17/who-bought-the-nearly-1-trillion-of-new-us-government-debt-over-the-past-12-months/

US-treasury-holdings-TIC-foreign-v-total-2019-04.png

 

I was surprised by that PremierInn news Barnsey.Says an awful lot that a business like that is struggling for revenue.Be interesting to see how Q2 holds up.So many of these businesses are working slim margins that dissappear with the top 20% of revenue.

The day when risk starts getting repriced could usher in a new era and it doesn't even need rising rates to have an effect.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats right and how i see things.Dividend paying stocks are still the best way to retire (flexible,can stop start etc) but its going to be a different set that can manage to do that and other companies will be in a distribution cycle.Its crucial companies can at least track inflation higher without destroying sales.Those include companies that are leaders in their sector as others go under.Debt repayment timing is critical as well,the more debt that can be retired as it comes off the better (for a debt deflation watch the likes of Imperial change its capital policy soon,instead of 10% divi increases i expect 4% or RPI+2% and debts repayments instead).Vodafone has already done this.Its ironic but the companies with the best ability to pay coupons are the ones rolling off their debts.

The debt deflation is coming from two sides,none payers defaulting and strong companies paying off.

On GDX if the Fed doesnt cut tonight it might pull back to the $21.70-$22 area and i think this will be the last chance to get on board.Gold is in the start of a sustained move up.It has tested its 6 year old consolidation already and once it gets through that the move should start to speed up.

1) agreed.It's seems strange that the companies who seem to be deleveraging the most are the ones who don't necessarily need to

2) I've often argued that rate rises aren't necessary for a debt deflation,all you need is dropping demand creating dropping demand which as you say could occur two ways.Rate rises will exacerbate it but aren't a necessity.

Fishers paradox 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher

'Initially, during the upswing over-confident economic agents are lured by the prospect of high profits to increase their debt in order to leverage their gains. According to Fisher, once the credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy:

  1. Debt liquidation and distress selling.
  2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off.
  3. A fall in the level of asset prices.
  4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies.
  5. A fall in profits.
  6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.
  7. Pessimism and loss of confidence.
  8. Hoarding of money.
  9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates.

Crucially, as debtors try to liquidate or pay off their nominal debt, the fall of prices caused by this defeats the very attempt to reduce the real burden of debt. Thus, while repayment reduces the amount of money owed, this does not happen fast enough since the real value of the dollar now rises

 

 

3 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Ok, just doing some reading about this so let me check with you folks that I have it correct.

1. We are now in the slowdown stage (after the expansion stage where small/med caps ttraditionally do better), and the large caps are reducing divis to deleverage for the foreseen recession stage.

2. Gold is increasing as a flight to safety.

What I dont understand is why inflation is low; in expansion it should be high (or is this due to indice I.e CPI not including correct factors such as housing) AND why interest rates are so low; at this stage govts should be increasing to control expansion and allow a position to reduce from in a recession stage (to stimulate economy)....are we actually at the edge of slowdown stage and about to drop off the edge?

Finally, how does terms mentioned here (disinflaton/reinflation) relate to this financial cycle?

Thanks for any help.

Without boring on,inflation hasn't been low for lower income deciles for some considerable period of time and the causes are as you state.The ironically named 'Core CPI' which excludes food and fuel sums it up for me.

Govts lost control when they bailed out failed/failing financial institutions,not only did it create an even greater economic hazard than the bailing was meant to cure,but they also mistook headline GDP growth for real growth without using a population deflator.What I'm trying to say is that if inflation targetting is to be a central plank of monetary policy then

1) you need to calculate inflation adequately and effectively

2) you need to raise rates when said rate is above target.

So they had a plan and then ignored it.

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Getting a sense that things are starting to get very interesting again out there in the global macro environment, just some recent noteworthy points:

 

- Yesterday, Draghi planted the QE/easing stimulus seed. BOE still suggesting a hike may be needed due to weak £, but I think they're just sitting on their hands and waiting to see what everyone else does, trying to prop it up best they can for now.

 

 

Looks like Draghi was trying to box the ECB into a corner as he readies to leave.Nothing like the next ECB head U turning on Mario  'whatever it takes' Draghi.

Worth noting he's ex goldman

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/18/no-we-didnt-discuss-rate-cuts-ecb-insiders-out-draghi-as-fabricator-schemer-and-talk-to-reuters/

His vision laid out on Tuesday was quite a change from the June 6 post-meeting announcement, which didn’t mention anything about even discussing rate cuts. It said that the ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020,” before the ECB would begin to raise them, with the bias still on raising rates, not cutting rates. That was less than two weeks ago, and there had not been another ECB policy meeting since then.

Interviewing six “sources” at the ECB with “direct knowledge of the situation,” Reuters found that these policy makers “had not expected such a strong message and that there was no consensus on the path ahead.”

At the June 6 policy meeting, any possibility of a rate cut or renewed asset purchases had been mentioned “only in passing” and without any substantive discussion. The discussion had instead focused on the new package of loans for the banks, the sources said.

The sources told Reuters that ECB policymakers were worried “Draghi was flagging his measures so strongly to markets as a ‘fait accompli’ that there would be no chance for them to disagree with them in at the next policy meeting on July 25,” Reuters reported.

Several sources told Reuters that, because very little new economic information on the Eurozone will come out before the July 25 meeting, “it would be difficult to justify coming to a different policy conclusion than in June.”

And at the June meeting, the conclusion was to delay rate hikes – and there was no mention of rate cuts.'

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I still maintain Powell is a bit of wildcard here.There are a lot less perma doves on the Fed than when he started and the market has a pretty poor record of predicting fed cuts.

Very good point Sancho, I remember looking at a chart from Nordea revealing that markets usually call rate cuts way too early (~6 months) yet completely underestimate the extent of the cuts when they do begin. Also, with unemployment below 4%, once they start cutting then going by "history rhymes" theory, it pretty much means a recession has begun and unemployment will rapidly spike to 7% shortly thereafter. 

EDIT: Centrica just announced cutting 700 jobs

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Semi regular post to say thanks to all for their contributions. What a great thread.

I am saving and investing and paying down debt so hard right now.

As you were...

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22 hours ago, MrXxx said:

OK, here's is my shot after reading a number of FIRE sites.

Realistic drawdown rate after costs is 2.5-3%, this will mean you are unlikely to run out of money in a 30-40 year retirement...check out Pau who is the academic guru on this...also RIT/WICAO webpage.

This then means a £100k pot should give you £2.5-3 k per year.

Then decide how expensive your tastes are...Rowntree Foundation states £14k pyr minimum for a single person.

As always DYOR (do your own research).

Interesting. I've seen these drawdown figures before and they seem extremely conservative. I no longer have any housing or child costs and I've been recording every penny I spend for a couple of years - I can survive very comfortably on £15k a year.

Going by the above I'd need a pot of at least half a million - no chance, keep me in the office for too many more years.

I've worked out that if I retire with £250,000 at 55 and draw it down at the rate of £15k per year and achieve an average annual return of 3% above inflation that this will last me until I'm 76. This excludes starting to draw the state pension at 67 which would undoubtedly push out my running out of money moment years further.

I'm also quite likely to be able to supplement my income in other small ways - but only if I feel like it, which is the crucial difference.

Am I missing something? Really appreciate a sanity check. I just don't see why people need such a big pot, most people don't live long past 80. I'm not bothered about leaving anything as my kids will get the house.

Not sure where Rowntree get the minimum £14k from unless that includes rent/mortgage. A single person with no dependents can live for very little.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Looks even better as a picture

 

What really interests me here is a) the end result and b) how long this can continue spreading until the entire system collapses.

Seems to me it's either DB's massive money printing which will surely end in a crackup boom and destruction of the usd or could most of the world do a Japan? And if so how long is it possible for that to continue?

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

1) agreed.It's seems strange that the companies who seem to be deleveraging the most are the ones who don't necessarily need to

2) I've often argued that rate rises aren't necessary for a debt deflation,all you need is dropping demand creating dropping demand which as you say could occur two ways.Rate rises will exacerbate it but aren't a necessity.

Fishers paradox 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher

'Initially, during the upswing over-confident economic agents are lured by the prospect of high profits to increase their debt in order to leverage their gains. According to Fisher, once the credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy:

  1. Debt liquidation and distress selling.
  2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off.
  3. A fall in the level of asset prices.
  4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies.
  5. A fall in profits.
  6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.
  7. Pessimism and loss of confidence.
  8. Hoarding of money.
  9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates.

Crucially, as debtors try to liquidate or pay off their nominal debt, the fall of prices caused by this defeats the very attempt to reduce the real burden of debt. Thus, while repayment reduces the amount of money owed, this does not happen fast enough since the real value of the dollar now rises

 

 

Without boring on,inflation hasn't been low for lower income deciles for some considerable period of time and the causes are as you state.The ironically named 'Core CPI' which excludes food and fuel sums it up for me.

Govts lost control when they bailed out failed/failing financial institutions,not only did it create an even greater economic hazard than the bailing was meant to cure,but they also mistook headline GDP growth for real growth without using a population deflator.What I'm trying to say is that if inflation targetting is to be a central plank of monetary policy then

1) you need to calculate inflation adequately and effectively

2) you need to raise rates when said rate is above target.

So they had a plan and then ignored it.

The Government inflation figures are complete nonsense. Everything I see around me has double and tripled over the last 15 years, houses, electric, haircuts, food, tradesmen, eating out...

Pretty sure 15 years ago a bag of potatoes in Tesco was about 60p - now the best part of £2. Certainly more than 2% inflation that is.  Remember butter being about 70p not long ago as well, now it's £1.50.

Fark knows where the Government get their figures from but then who is the biggest beneficiary of high inflation, oh wait,  deficit spending Governments.

I do wonder if all these so called real returns in equities are actually nothing of the sort if measured against real inflation.

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On 15/06/2019 at 23:18, sancho panza said:

Interested that you're buying ITV and Card factory.... what's the logic if you dont mind me asking?

 

On 16/06/2019 at 21:48, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza Card Factory as an inflation hedge and free cash flow.I also think the company has done amazing considering the headwinds they have faced.NMW increases,sterling falling a third,high street footfall.Iv a contact in Aldi high up and they told me the stores where they ran a trial stocking Card factory cards saw an increase in footfall.Click and collect should really help them from this year.ITV because BT might buy them out,or invest in Britbox.ITV is very risky and ive got 3 ladders,£1.05,0.90p,0.75p not the normal 5.

Card Factory shares could be struggling while Woodford is, thanks to this...

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/woodford-doubles-card-factory-stake--3899658.html

Quote

Woodford Investment Management holds 10.06% of the budget card retailer's shares, Card Factory said. Woodford has doubled his stake since October 2017 when it was reported as 5.02%

And Woodford sold some of them just recently

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1559652326423925500/embattled-woodford-cuts-card-factory-stake-to-below-9-(alliss).aspx

Quote

LONDON (Alliance News) - Card Factory PLC on Tuesday said Woodford Investment Management Ltd reduced its holding in the greeting card and gift stores operator.

In a transaction on Friday last week, Woodford Investment lowered its stake in the FTSE 250-listed firm to 8.9%, having previously held over 10% interest.

The transaction came after Neil Woodford - the founding partner of Woodford Investment - decided to suspend withdrawal from his equity income fund amid investor exodus.

 

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33 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Interesting. I've seen these drawdown figures before and they seem extremely conservative. I no longer have any housing or child costs and I've been recording every penny I spend for a couple of years - I can survive very comfortably on £15k a year.

Going by the above I'd need a pot of at least half a million - no chance, keep me in the office for too many more years.

I've worked out that if I retire with £250,000 at 55 and draw it down at the rate of £15k per year and achieve an average annual return of 3% above inflation that this will last me until I'm 76. This excludes starting to draw the state pension at 67 which would undoubtedly push out my running out of money moment years further.

I'm also quite likely to be able to supplement my income in other small ways - but only if I feel like it, which is the crucial difference.

Am I missing something? Really appreciate a sanity check. I just don't see why people need such a big pot, most people don't live long past 80. I'm not bothered about leaving anything as my kids will get the house.

Not sure where Rowntree get the minimum £14k from unless that includes rent/mortgage. A single person with no dependents can live for very little.

 

 

 

14k is more than I live on now and I have to pay rent, run a car and feed/clothe two kids. 

On the road, India, SEA, South America I can live merrily on £10 a day incuding guesthouses. Strips of land in the tropics or the desert are dirt cheap. The area in my profile picture was a 1/4 acre in Peru for around £2000. Not much cop for growing my own food but with water/electric and the permits to build I could quite happily knock up a little shack to hang out in on it.

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Democorruptcy
22 minutes ago, Starsend said:

The Government inflation figures are complete nonsense. Everything I see around me has double and tripled over the last 15 years, houses, electric, haircuts, food, tradesmen, eating out...

Pretty sure 15 years ago a bag of potatoes in Tesco was about 60p - now the best part of £2. Certainly more than 2% inflation that is.  Remember butter being about 70p not long ago as well, now it's £1.50.

Fark knows where the Government get their figures from but then who is the biggest beneficiary of high inflation, oh wait,  deficit spending Governments.

I do wonder if all these so called real returns in equities are actually nothing of the sort if measured against real inflation.

It's very unfortunate but people who get minimum wage need to live. Therefore everything they buy goes up in price, so they lose the value of their pay increase. It doesn't make them better off in real terms, that's why they need living wage.

Even Wetherspoons have upped prices again recently, when they weren't due until Autumn.

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On 18/06/2019 at 10:24, DurhamBorn said:

Woodfords case might prove a focus to look back on in the future.He bought a lot of stocks that should do well in the future,but miss-timed,but also bought stocks with massive debts right at the end of the cycle.The irony is the people selling the funds down 20%+ are likely putting the money into funds that have gained most from deflation (FANGS/"growth" etc) and will likely see another big smack down.

Would you risk buying it at some point?  Given significant price to NAV disount?

For example, Woodford Patient Capital Trust (not the one with Card Factory) dropped 35% in a month.  Although it performed pretty poor all the way from its inception in 2015 by the looks of it.  I guess as long as it's not a proper Ponzi but just poorly picked/managed, there should be some money still to be made?

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36 minutes ago, harp said:

Hold your horses Gold.....!!

Still below the multiyear resistance... and the gains are diminished by weakening USD...

meanwhile: 

 

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ninjaborrower
1 hour ago, Starsend said:

The Government inflation figures are complete nonsense. Everything I see around me has double and tripled over the last 15 years, houses, electric, haircuts, food, tradesmen, eating out...

Pretty sure 15 years ago a bag of potatoes in Tesco was about 60p - now the best part of £2. Certainly more than 2% inflation that is.  Remember butter being about 70p not long ago as well, now it's £1.50.

Fark knows where the Government get their figures from but then who is the biggest beneficiary of high inflation, oh wait,  deficit spending Governments.

I do wonder if all these so called real returns in equities are actually nothing of the sort if measured against real inflation.

The inflation basket is carefully managed to get the figure they want, it keeps wage increase demands low i guess

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Bobthebuilder
2 hours ago, Starsend said:

The Government inflation figures are complete nonsense. Everything I see around me has double and tripled over the last 15 years, houses, electric, haircuts, food, tradesmen, eating out...

Pretty sure 15 years ago a bag of potatoes in Tesco was about 60p - now the best part of £2. Certainly more than 2% inflation that is.  Remember butter being about 70p not long ago as well, now it's £1.50.

Fark knows where the Government get their figures from but then who is the biggest beneficiary of high inflation, oh wait,  deficit spending Governments.

I do wonder if all these so called real returns in equities are actually nothing of the sort if measured against real inflation.

During the credit crunch my sister came up with the butter index as a guide to inflation, we watched it climb 150% in just 2 years.

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

During the credit crunch my sister came up with the butter index as a guide to inflation, we watched it climb 150% in just 2 years.

Same with lamb or salmon, the price has doubled in 2 years.

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6 hours ago, Starsend said:

Interesting. I've seen these drawdown figures before and they seem extremely conservative. I no longer have any housing or child costs and I've been recording every penny I spend for a couple of years - I can survive very comfortably on £15k a year.

Going by the above I'd need a pot of at least half a million - no chance, keep me in the office for too many more years.

I've worked out that if I retire with £250,000 at 55 and draw it down at the rate of £15k per year and achieve an average annual return of 3% above inflation that this will last me until I'm 76. This excludes starting to draw the state pension at 67 which would undoubtedly push out my running out of money moment years further.

I'm also quite likely to be able to supplement my income in other small ways - but only if I feel like it, which is the crucial difference.

Am I missing something? Really appreciate a sanity check. I just don't see why people need such a big pot, most people don't live long past 80. I'm not bothered about leaving anything as my kids will get the house.

Not sure where Rowntree get the minimum £14k from unless that includes rent/mortgage. A single person with no dependents can live for very little.

 

 

 

Im with you on this.Iv retired twice already,once at 29 until 36 then at 41 until 47.Both times on pots of around £300k and my pot went up.Im mortgage free and i can live very well on £12k a year.A grand a month is easily enough.My direct debits are £280 a month,food £30 a week so that means £600 left to spend,car probs takes £170 including buying,fuel,insurance,repairs etc.

If you have a full state pension at 67 thats £8k a year,so only £4k needed and i go by what a great old fella once told me,run out of money at 81 apart from £20k for boilers blowing up etc.So 14 years at £4k a year,then years before 67 at £12k a year.The years from 55 to 67 are easy,ram all your taxable income into a Sipp and then drawdown the tax allowance each year.If you have a works pension that gets you that £4k from 67 its even easier as you just need to fund the time from packing in up to then.

Another point is part time work.Nothing wrong with jacking in,but working 16 hours in a low stress low paid job.Even NMW doing that gets you over £500 a month.A £100k dividend portfolio,mortgage free and 16 hours a week at NMW would do me fine.I could retire now,but i went back to work as im saving 100% of the wage and put it into PM miners and probably only for another 6 months to a year.

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3 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Woah-gold just rocketed over $1380...

Hopefully this is the start of a big run up to $1500+

A cascade of stop-loss orders got triggered this night... :) 

 

edit: I've just found a tweet behind the move

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-believes-he-has-the-authority-to-replace-powell-at-fed-201906192359

Thanks Donald ;) can we have more?

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4 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Woah-gold just rocketed over $1380...

Hopefully this is the start of a big run up to $1500+

Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans, something went wrong for someone in a big way last night.  Gold Shorts panic closing as they realise they are about to be steamrolled by the bull market?

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36 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans, something went wrong for someone in a big way last night.  Gold Shorts panic closing as they realise they are about to be steamrolled by the bull market?

Lots going on, $1360 was resistance on a long 6 year consolidation.Im really pleased my road map picked the turn perfectly.I get calls wrong,but i think i got the turn late May early June about as good as anyone in the market.There is still a chance we get a pull back.My sentiment indicator is flashing borderline danger (83% bulls retail) and the commercials have gone heavily short.We might see a pull back in the GDX still to around $22.40 and if we do anyone not long the sector should use the chance to get in.No selling here though for me.Its crucial not to let a pull back if it happens shake you out.Just for information my road map is showing $1550-$1620 likely range for gold,GDX $30 target,then goes down as US equity markets really crack lower.These arent timing tools they are where we should end up.

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Barnsey mentioned 40 years, and that speaks to long term debt cycles. Passive investing and all the actuarial work that goes into it is too zoomed in, and tends not to look back far enough. As this disinflationary cycle ends, and a new cycle begins, all stocks are not going to broadly go up together. Disinflation loving stocks are going to cancel out the inflation loving ones in a big basket of thousands of stocks so youll get stagnstion and poor returns (negative real returns probably). If someone sorts out a decent index of inflation loving stocks only, I'd happily passive invest in that.

I recommended Ray Dalios videos on debt cycles. They zoom out far enough to help you see the next 40 years wont be like the last 40, if you believe we are now at a major inflection point. Which I do. Very hard to notice it while its happening, and most wont notice things have structurally shifted.

Perfectly put and exactly how im positioning.Passive investing is doomed in a distribution cycle.

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