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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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sancho panza
13 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

That makes sense to say for the long haul, but in the big downturn when the stockmarket halves  would PMs go down hard too and would that cause some of the miners to go bust, its that bit that I'm trying to get my head round

From wehat I can see ...dyor

phase Dollar heads down/Gold goes up

phase 2 gold plateaus/dollar plateaus

phase 3 gold down/dollar goes up-stock market collapse

phase 4 gold palteaus/dollar plateaus

phsae 5 gold up/dollar down

Stock market historians feel free to destroy my line of thought...

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32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

Have to say Errol that I've come round to your view through bitter experience over the last ten years of watching the central banks fuck things up and then fuck things up even more trying to reverse their original fuck ups.

My name is Sancho Panza and I have become a gold bug.

 

As I've said previously,I'm an awful timer of PM's and will be holding until s suitable exponential phase reminsicent of the tech bubble,when we'll sell and buy somethign more mundane with it.

I'd agree ,you wrote somewhere else about the tech bubble in the 90's which was my first.Like you I got out early,and missed the exponential phase,but I got out.The PM sector has all the hallmarks and I'll be learning my lessons form the past and jsut buying the dips till the exponential phase.

Monetary policy is in an 1970's ford cortina travelling down the m1 at 100mph with bold tyres in the pouring rain.An accident searching for a crash.

I had several tech shares long before the bull started.I used to subscribe to Techinvest newsletter as i saw the boom coming but didnt know who the companies were.I sold out way way too soon in most.One i sold on a double at £10k went to £70k,,,,,,two weeks later.The same time i went to an auction to buy a house to rent out in a little coastal village in Yorkshire,i backed off at £60k as it took a lot of my savings (i was about 28),it went for £62k i think and its now £400k and £550 a week holiday rentals.

I agree there is a good chance we could see the biggest bull market in history in the PM space.Silver looks like $200 for me simply from cycles work,never mind if the CBs go all in on printing.Looking around where i live everyone has a top of the range car,lives in a new house and works 16 hours for tax credits.Its insane and all from printing and kicking the can.My charts all point to complete theft of peoples savings to pay for these benefits and state pensions/spending.If they are even close to being right then we are going to see the PMs explode.Such is the potential they need to be inside tax free wrappers,SIPPs and ISAs.

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13 hours ago, leonardratso said:

same with crypto, i trade in and out playing troughs and waves, but they then fail that model and shoot to the moon(or to the floor), usually leaving me behind arnd then i um and arr about joining that wave higher up , ive learnt not to since it invariably leads to a reset eventually and you are stuck higher. Probably better to run it like a fund and just keep trickling in on a constant basis and not be hit by the big up/down swings.

I made the mistake a few years ago by trading vs tether (USDT). You will always get caught out with the volatility. By trading say BTC/ETH or XMR it’s much more stable.

Although currently I have a large amount of ETH and BTC pumped $2k in a day, so I’m waiting for ETH to catch up, so am down against BTC currently. The $ value is irrelevant to me, the no.1 priority is to not bleed sats out to BTC.

I believe that once hedge funds incorporate BTC and the wealthy look to guard against inflation with the likes QE and dollar devaluation we could see $100k+ per BTC in the next few years after the halving happening in 2020. 

The only other crypto I have is a small amount  of LINK and QNT (this one is very interesting and one to watch). That is because I do not see one winner with the likes of Facebook’s own crypto currency. It will be a multi-faceted, smart contract solution, but pinned on a store of value such as BTC.

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sancho panza
2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I had several tech shares long before the bull started.I used to subscribe to Techinvest newsletter as i saw the boom coming but didnt know who the companies were.I sold out way way too soon in most.One i sold on a double at £10k went to £70k,,,,,,two weeks later.The same time i went to an auction to buy a house to rent out in a little coastal village in Yorkshire,i backed off at £60k as it took a lot of my savings (i was about 28),it went for £62k i think and its now £400k and £550 a week holiday rentals.

I agree there is a good chance we could see the biggest bull market in history in the PM space.Silver looks like $200 for me simply from cycles work,never mind if the CBs go all in on printing.Looking around where i live everyone has a top of the range car,lives in a new house and works 16 hours for tax credits.

Its insane and all from printing and kicking the can.My charts all point to complete theft of peoples savings to pay for these benefits and state pensions/spending

If they are even close to being right then we are going to see the PMs explode.

Such is the potential they need to be inside tax free wrappers,SIPPs and ISAs.

Holy smoly DB,I used to subscribe to Techinvest as well about 97/98 when my Mum- bless her- put me onto it.Still going these days run yb Andrew Mchattie but I dont' subscribe.Conor whathisname is still sited as advisor

 

All separeted up and highlighted for the simple reason that it's good advice.All our goldies and silvies are in ISA's although the choice on offer from HSBC is poor.Thye'll offer the big miners but not much under $500mn market cap.Any recomendations in erms of providers.

I'm setting up ISA's with IG for family members this week.I'm taking the view that the price action over the last few days tells us the bull in gold is on.We have 2.5 tranches deployed since 2017.Spoke to family members this week and said I was worreid PM miners might rip north.Last tranches need to be in soon.

 

Just my views but prepping a list tonight and tmrw of top up trades that add to existing holdings so that we'll lift from  10% portofilio value to 15% if needed Tueasday.I'm obviously hoping of ra pull back so we're not rushing but B2G,FCX(still cracking value inmho),GORO(small and risky),HMY,IAM,KGC,PAAS,SBGL,AUY all offer realitve value picking apart the XAU.But there's loads more our there are below their prices from March.


been picking up some GDXJ plays like Dundee/Teranga and some GDX plays like Detour/Oceana,to add some diversity.

 

Interesting times.

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15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Holy smoly DB,I used to subscribe to Techinvest as well about 97/98 when my Mum- bless her- put me onto it.Still going these days run yb Andrew Mchattie but I dont' subscribe.Conor whathisname is still sited as advisor

 

All separeted up and highlighted for the simple reason that it's good advice.All our goldies and silvies are in ISA's although the choice on offer from HSBC is poor.Thye'll offer the big miners but not much under $500mn market cap.Any recomendations in erms of providers.

I'm setting up ISA's with IG for family members this week.I'm taking the view that the price action over the last few days tells us the bull in gold is on.We have 2.5 tranches deployed since 2017.Spoke to family members this week and said I was worreid PM miners might rip north.Last tranches need to be in soon.

 

Just my views but prepping a list tonight and tmrw of top up trades that add to existing holdings so that we'll lift from  10% portofilio value to 15% if needed Tueasday.I'm obviously hoping of ra pull back so we're not rushing but B2G,FCX(still cracking value inmho),GORO(small and risky),HMY,IAM,KGC,PAAS,SBGL,AUY all offer realitve value picking apart the XAU.But there's loads more our there are below their prices from March.


been picking up some GDXJ plays like Dundee/Teranga and some GDX plays like Detour/Oceana,to add some diversity.

 

Interesting times.

Dont forget the silver miners.Endeavour are super risky if silver doesnt get over $16 or $17 soon,but if it does should go well.They have permits to build a very nice new mine that could be producing in 18 months at 5 million silver equivalents (80oz silver to 1oz gold).Coeur Mining Inc are the no 9 silver producer and First Majestic could see serious increases if silver starts to follow gold as expected.My road map has silver at $25 in 2021 (likely tough resistance for a while there) even if we get an up down up to get there.

Most silver miners moved into gold and so there arent many almost pure play silver stocks left,so if a frenzy kicks in its likely they will be the ones to see the most upside.

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leonardratso

slvp seems to default to sslv over here, yet in dollar terms and on american soil its called 'SILVER MINERS ETC' also its $9 odd cf SSLV @ $14 dollars odd.

It might be a KIID document thing that i cant see it over here, can anyone see it on HL as tradeable? (or AJ Bell)?c

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7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Holy smoly DB,I used to subscribe to Techinvest as well about 97/98 when my Mum- bless her- put me onto it.Still going these days run yb Andrew Mchattie but I dont' subscribe.Conor whathisname is still sited as advisor

 

All separeted up and highlighted for the simple reason that it's good advice.All our goldies and silvies are in ISA's although the choice on offer from HSBC is poor.Thye'll offer the big miners but not much under $500mn market cap.Any recomendations in erms of providers.

I'm setting up ISA's with IG for family members this week.I'm taking the view that the price action over the last few days tells us the bull in gold is on.We have 2.5 tranches deployed since 2017.Spoke to family members this week and said I was worreid PM miners might rip north.Last tranches need to be in soon.

 

Just my views but prepping a list tonight and tmrw of top up trades that add to existing holdings so that we'll lift from  10% portofilio value to 15% if needed Tueasday.I'm obviously hoping of ra pull back so we're not rushing but B2G,FCX(still cracking value inmho),GORO(small and risky),HMY,IAM,KGC,PAAS,SBGL,AUY all offer realitve value picking apart the XAU.But there's loads more our there are below their prices from March.


been picking up some GDXJ plays like Dundee/Teranga and some GDX plays like Detour/Oceana,to add some diversity.

 

Interesting times.

HL seem to have upped their game with regards to the miners. Checked Dundee, Teranga and GORO for you as a sample and they’re all there. GDXJ seems to be easily available now too. Happy to check others.

Likewise I’m going to try and get our lass to open an ISA this week. She’s very careful with money though so miners might be a step too far to start with. Some reflation stocks could be a first step. It would be a lot easier to explain Vodafone than a South African mining company haha. Need to find a low cost ISA for her because she’d be dripping feeding in from her wages. Freeshare would be perfect if they had GDXJ.

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Napoleon Dynamite
On 22/06/2019 at 08:15, Democorruptcy said:

OBR figures:

I remember reading Scotland was up to 54% of council tax revenue  on pensions. It's mere coincidence that Scotland whacked up council tax in 2016. It will keep the public sector worker's 2nd homes and BTL ticking along so private sector workers can be outbid for a shelter.

It's ridiculous the amount that's funnelled into their pensions.

Wife works for the Local Council.  She earns £11K (£18K pro rata for a 3 day week).  Her pension increases £5K per year.

That said the day to day working environment has been tightened up a lot.  Staff numbers are reducing, people aren't replaced, less and less managers.  It's gone from a very comfortable place to work, to a very difficult one.

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14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In the meantime, the deleveraging continues, which is bad news not only for Turkey’s state-owned banks, which are having to pick up much of the slack in the credit markets, but also the five major European lenders that have carved out a sizable, and for many years highly profitable, presence in Turkey — — BBVA, Unicredit, BNP-Paribas, HSBC and ING — and are now struggling with rising default rates in their Turkish entities.

Unicredit had to splash out roughly €1.5 billion last year to support its part-owned Turkish subsidiary Yapi Kredi, of which it owns a 40% stake. Spain’s BBVA, which owns just under half of Turkey’s largest listed lender, Garanti Bank, has warned that conditions are likely to further deteriorate in 2019 on the back of stalling credit creation and rising defaults.

This week, the Bank of Spain, worried about the exposure of Spanish banks, echoed the concerns raised by the ECB, which had warned last year about the risks of Turkey’s unraveling economy for European banks. The Bank of Spain now warned for the second time this month of the contagion risks posed not just by BBVA’s outsized exposure to Turkey but also to Argentina, whose economy continues to sink despite the $56 billion bailout it received from the IMF last year. By Don Quijones.

SP, I haven't seen you mention Deutsche's 'bad' bank, or is that latest - but much signposted - financial wheeze just too hilarious//pathetic/disturbing (all three?) to comment on? 

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6 hours ago, Lavalas said:

HL seem to have upped their game with regards to the miners. Checked Dundee, Teranga and GORO for you as a sample and they’re all there. GDXJ seems to be easily available now too. Happy to check others.

Likewise I’m going to try and get our lass to open an ISA this week. She’s very careful with money though so miners might be a step too far to start with. Some reflation stocks could be a first step. It would be a lot easier to explain Vodafone than a South African mining company haha. Need to find a low cost ISA for her because she’d be dripping feeding in from her wages. Freeshare would be perfect if they had GDXJ.

Iv bought all my miners through HL.A lot of them are from the canadian stock market,but that makes no difference.There are very few you cant buy on HL.I am doing similar for my partner as well.Each month she sticks a grand in her ISA and i buy her a stock,no PMs though,she says she doesnt need them as if they rocket il give her some anyway.This week she is getting BT.She is already up to £120 a month in dividends.Once she saw them divis she didnt need convincing.Iv created a monster though,eating an ice cream at the coast she counted the people getting on a Go Ahead bus and said theres me dividends getting on.The Card Factory lasses will think she is a shoplifter as well as she goes in when passing to make sure the tills are busy (they always are).

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On ‎22‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 15:39, DurhamBorn said:

There is a very real chance £20k could be turned into £500k in the space in the next cycle so the potential is open to almost everyone.I myself went back to work to do something similar.I had my full allocation in the sector (about 20% of portfolio) and i wouldnt break my own rules.So i went back to work and have put every penny in wages and dividends since i went back into miners.Im counting it as outside my portfolio and giving up a years labour.I guess im more conservative as i get older.The truth is my portfolio delivers enough income when invested in divi stocks to retire and im not really interested in doubling it now,but a nice 30% on top would be very nice and so have taken some profits to funnel into stocks i want (i bought some Imperial last week with some).However im also well aware that there might be a chance here to make generational wealth.ie clear all three of my childrens mortgages and give them a dividend portfolio each.I really do think silver is going to around $200 in the next cycle,maybe even $300 and $10k gold is likely if inflation runs hot.That would deliver some 100 baggers in the space i expect and a lot of the sector would 25x 50x etc.If all i had was £10k id do exactly like you say,id buy 7 miners,add to them on dips with any spare cash and wait for the real bull to arrive.

Hi DB, when you refer to the next economic cycle, do you still think the up-trend and plateau point for PM's to be approx. 2028?

 

Your detailed reply above got me thinking. I do have a slightly more involved question, but hoping you might have done some of these comparisons already for your own portfolio.

You previously suggested a 70/30 silver/gold split was reasonable for most people. I agree with this and have personally achieved this using mix of mining stocks/ETF's/holding physical.

However, I would like to also include some platinum and uranium, as a buy and hold strategy, to say 2028. I would like to include platinum and uranium for diversification purposes but really only if the expected up-trend is somewhat similar to silver. Ideally I would also ideally like to understand possible gains to say 2028 (i.e. 10x/25x, as this would crucially allow me to judge the risk/reward compared to say buying silver).

Everyone's risk/reward profile is different, but to help me to plan my PM allocations correctly please would you be able to comment on what you think the different returns may be between: holding physical silver and physical platinum; and the uranium miners compared to the silver miners?

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

2 pieces of investmemt advice have always stuck with me: 

1. "You don't need to sell at or close tp the top of the market, by definition, very few do. Just make sure you're not stuck on the other side going down" - Dermot Desmond, Irish billionaire, early backer of Baltimore Technologies in the tech boom. Remember them?! IIRC he got out with a 200m profit, and got slated as the share price continued to rise. And then crashed spectacularly- not slated then!

2. "Never re visit decisions, as you will always have more information afterwards. Just make the best decision you can with the information you have" - board member of 50bn company 

So I never worry about potential lost gains, I just try to make sure I gain something, and move on to the next one. I got kicked out of a FTSE 100 short last year, which continued on down and 'lost' me 45k. Ah well, I made a bit. And I avoid hindsight. I'm not criticising at all, @DurhamBorn, just empathising that I too know the feeling and those two quotes helped me.

Yes its pointless,but i admit the one that sticks still is Staffware.I sold it just a few days before it rocketed.My friend even phoned me at work to congratulate me on it.I had to sit down when he said the price.When i said id already sold he went "oh,right".I remember Baltimore well.It was one of the real bubble stocks.Insane price it went to.Lots of execs made out like bandits.

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sancho panza
On 20/06/2019 at 08:41, DoINeedOne said:

Remember reading this about inflation

IMG_6430.thumb.jpg.ec13b50922fb24157743c2dbb70387ca.jpg

IMG_6429.thumb.jpg.d04f1bcd9febb17ab54533941446e7e5.jpg

 

Then went on to talk about Shrinkflation too and how products are shrinking but prices the same or going up.And how the average Joe is getting poorer but doesn't understand why

Which book is this from?Looks like a decent one stop shop for understanding the way the fraud is done.

 

I read Shuan Richards a lot and have learned loads but could do with a decent book on the subject that goes through the issues methodically.

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sancho panza
21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dont forget the silver miners.Endeavour are super risky if silver doesnt get over $16 or $17 soon,but if it does should go well.They have permits to build a very nice new mine that could be producing in 18 months at 5 million silver equivalents (80oz silver to 1oz gold).Coeur Mining Inc are the no 9 silver producer and First Majestic could see serious increases if silver starts to follow gold as expected.My road map has silver at $25 in 2021 (likely tough resistance for a while there) even if we get an up down up to get there.

Most silver miners moved into gold and so there arent many almost pure play silver stocks left,so if a frenzy kicks in its likely they will be the ones to see the most upside.

Bought some endeavour in tranche 2 in Dec 18 heeding a previous lead from you after you'd explaiend the rubber band theory of yours.DYOR natch.

Now looking at some new holdings in B2G/Centerra plus a few explorecos.Im going to wait a few days to see if $ rebounds sending gold lower .Appleid my chart work to DXY given $/Gold relationship.Sharp move down over a few days for DXY which could bounce from oversold.Chartwork is never 100%.If we don't get any more on,I won't chase a market moving like it did last two weeks.Easy to get carried away and overbid

 

Also going to top up previous holdings eg HMY and SBGL.

 

 

13 hours ago, Lavalas said:

HL seem to have upped their game with regards to the miners. Checked Dundee, Teranga and GORO for you as a sample and they’re all there. GDXJ seems to be easily available now too. Happy to check others.

Likewise I’m going to try and get our lass to open an ISA this week. She’s very careful with money though so miners might be a step too far to start with. Some reflation stocks could be a first step. It would be a lot easier to explain Vodafone than a South African mining company haha. Need to find a low cost ISA for her because she’d be dripping feeding in from her wages. Freeshare would be perfect if they had GDXJ.

Cheers for the heads up Lavalas particualrly with reference to those shares.I had to get a family member to buy them as HSBC couldn't deal in me n Mrs P's ISA'sAS long as they're somewhere in the familly I'm happy.

..I've got to start some new ones this week and HL looks perfect.Really can't thank you enough for taking the time to check your account.Very kind of you

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sancho panza
8 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, I haven't seen you mention Deutsche's 'bad' bank, or is that latest - but much signposted - financial wheeze just too hilarious//pathetic/disturbing (all three?) to comment on? 

Farcical is the word I'd use.I'm with Mish the Bish

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/ho-ho-ho-it-s-magic-deutsche-bank-market-cap-14b-to-spin-off-50b-in-assets-pEOHpNKMv0utjToOLwA2-A/

Deutsche Bank, with a market cap of under $14 billion looks to spin off $50+ billion in allegedly productive assets.

I am scratching my head a bit over this idea. From the expression on CEO Christian Sewing's face, he is too.

Deutsche Bank ($13bn mkt cap) is going to launch a $56bn bad bank spin-of

Deutsche Bank has drawn up plans for a radical restructuring which will involve the creation of a “bad bank” to hold tens of billions of euros of toxic assets and a round of severe cuts to its investment banking operations, according to reports.

The bad bank would house or sell assets valued at up to €50bn (£45bn) comprising mainly of long-term trades that have been a major drag on the struggling bank’s balance sheet, the Financial Times reported, citing four people briefed on the plan.

Deutsche Bank has been beset by a series of crisis in the past yearincluding money laundering allegations, failed merger talks with Commerzbank and concerns about the lender’s dealings with Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Derivatives Spin Off

If the headline sounds preposterous, the derivatives details as described by the Financial Times are even more amazing.

"While the derivatives destined for the non-core unit still provide some cash flow, all the profit on the deals — and therefore the associated bonuses for those who arranged them — were booked up-front."

Supposedly these $50 billion in derivative assets are actually productive, except for the fact that Deutsche Bank booked the profit up front.

Thus, the proposal is to spin off productive assets to the "bad bank" keeping what?

The Financial Times explanation is to keep its better bond business.

To top it off, Deutsche Bank supposedly has €260 billion in cash and liquid securities on hand.

Magic Steps Explained

  1. Deutsche Bank will spin off $50 billion in productive assets to a bad bank
  2. Deutsche Bank will keep its better performing assets
  3. Deutsche Bank has €260 billion in cash and liquid securities on hand
  4. Deutsche Bank has a market cap of $14 billion

Illusions

Bear in mind that deposits are liabilities. Banks pay interest on them. But in the topsy-turvy EU world, interest rates are negative. If so, the bank is gaining by holding deposits.

If the liquid securities are government bonds, those are highly likely to have a negative yield and the bank is losing on them. This is the foolishness of the ECB's negative interest rate policy.

The entire impact of item 3 rages from a likely a big nothing to a tiny gain or loss.

As for point one, even if the asset is performing, excess profits were booked on it. Spinning it off should result in a charge, even if someone else is willing to deal with the derivatives mess.

This spin off story makes perfect sense, in some magical alternate universe somewhere.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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sancho panza
7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv bought all my miners through HL.A lot of them are from the canadian stock market,but that makes no difference.There are very few you cant buy on HL.I am doing similar for my partner as well.Each month she sticks a grand in her ISA and i buy her a stock,no PMs though,she says she doesnt need them as if they rocket il give her some anyway.This week she is getting BT.She is already up to £120 a month in dividends.Once she saw them divis she didnt need convincing.Iv created a monster though,eating an ice cream at the coast she counted the people getting on a Go Ahead bus and said theres me dividends getting on.The Card Factory lasses will think she is a shoplifter as well as she goes in when passing to make sure the tills are busy (they always are).

xDMrs P has changed since we met.She now comments of footfall in shops,looks at deals in shops and thinks about the margins gettting eroded to fund them

 

Still rolls her eyes at the first mention of fractional reserve lending though

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I've finally realised central bank monetary policy is going to burn down the FIAT monetary system.

Its in transit. I want to buy some gold for my Lady friend. She has a five figure sum held in small amounts across various institutions. Divorce settlement, hubby was a wealthy builder.

I going for sovereigns I think.Start off with 10 ounces. She's going to store then in a deposit box at her bank.

https://www.hattongardenmetals.com/buy/

I like these guys above. Any feedback glady received. I think she's missed the trough. But maybe the peak is way off.

 

Cheers guys.

 

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reformed nice guy
8 minutes ago, Panda said:

I've finally realised central bank monetary policy is going to burn down the FIAT monetary system.

Its in transit. I want to buy some gold for my Lady friend. She has a five figure sum held in small amounts across various institutions. Divorce settlement, hubby was a wealthy builder.

I going for sovereigns I think.Start off with 10 ounces. She's going to store then in a deposit box at her bank.

https://www.hattongardenmetals.com/buy/

I like these guys above. Any feedback glady received. I think she's missed the trough. But maybe the peak is way off.

 

Cheers guys.

 

I have use them regularly since 2016 and I am happy with them

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17 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I have use them regularly since 2016 and I am happy with them

Are all gold 1oz coins VAT and CGT free or just gold sovereigns.

 

Cheers.

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24 minutes ago, Panda said:

Are all gold 1oz coins VAT and CGT free or just gold sovereigns.

 

Cheers.

All investment gold is VAT free in the UK -- coin or bar.

Only sovereigns are CGT free. 

Of course, CGT depends on your being honest -- although I'd suggest that you only need to 'worry' if it is a large amount, and if it is a large amount it'll be difficult to work 'under the radar' and without triggering the range of AML regulations that fly around money these days.

[ie, CGT is actually a useful quality of sovereigns] 

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RickyBacker
19 minutes ago, dgul said:

All investment gold is VAT free in the UK -- coin or bar.

Only sovereigns are CGT free. 

Of course, CGT depends on your being honest -- although I'd suggest that you only need to 'worry' if it is a large amount, and if it is a large amount it'll be difficult to work 'under the radar' and without triggering the range of AML regulations that fly around money these days.

[ie, CGT is actually a useful quality of sovereigns] 

As far as my understanding, if the coin is legal tender then it is free from capital gains tax. Thus, the Queen's Beasts, Britannias etc are all free from capital gains. That includes both gold and silver. Bullion bars will be liable for capital gains tax.

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Apologies if I've misunderstood the concept of this thread but what about KIER now? Their share price is a tenth of the year high!  Still too risky?

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50 minutes ago, Loki said:

Apologies if I've misunderstood the concept of this thread but what about KIER now? Their share price is a tenth of the year high!  Still too risky?

They are selling off the profitable housing business because they have run out of cash. The rest of the business is low margin which is why they are in a mess in the first place.

The insurers have completely withdrawn cover so subcontractors are on their own if they don't pay, we wont have anything to do with them until/if we get cover again.

I give them 6 months if they get a good price for the housing part (its firesale so lol!), 3 months if they don't.  Either way the shareholders will eventually get wiped out like Carillion/Interserve IMO.

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