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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

They are selling off the profitable housing business because they have run out of cash. The rest of the business is low margin which is why they are in a mess in the first place.

The insurers have completely withdrawn cover so subcontractors are on their own if they don't pay, we wont have anything to do with them until/if we get cover again.

I give them 6 months if they get a good price for the housing part (its firesale so lol!), 3 months if they don't.  Either way they shareholders will eventually get wiped out like Carillion/Interserve IMO.

Thanks mate, I will steer clear

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On 23/06/2019 at 15:40, DurhamBorn said:

Iv bought all my miners through HL.A lot of them are from the canadian stock market,but that makes no difference.There are very few you cant buy on HL.I am doing similar for my partner as well.Each month she sticks a grand in her ISA and i buy her a stock,no PMs though,she says she doesnt need them as if they rocket il give her some anyway.This week she is getting BT.She is already up to £120 a month in dividends.Once she saw them divis she didnt need convincing.Iv created a monster though,eating an ice cream at the coast she counted the people getting on a Go Ahead bus and said theres me dividends getting on.The Card Factory lasses will think she is a shoplifter as well as she goes in when passing to make sure the tills are busy (they always are).

She sounds wise! It’s a useful reminder that I should restrain from encouraging her to invest in miners. I can stomach potential losses but that’s on the back of my own labour, not hers. Vod first, I reckon.

18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Bought some endeavour in tranche 2 in Dec 18 heeding a previous lead from you after you'd explaiend the rubber band theory of yours.DYOR natch.

Now looking at some new holdings in B2G/Centerra plus a few explorecos.Im going to wait a few days to see if $ rebounds sending gold lower .Appleid my chart work to DXY given $/Gold relationship.Sharp move down over a few days for DXY which could bounce from oversold.Chartwork is never 100%.If we don't get any more on,I won't chase a market moving like it did last two weeks.Easy to get carried away and overbid

 

Also going to top up previous holdings eg HMY and SBGL.

 

 

Cheers for the heads up Lavalas particualrly with reference to those shares.I had to get a family member to buy them as HSBC couldn't deal in me n Mrs P's ISA'sAS long as they're somewhere in the familly I'm happy.

..I've got to start some new ones this week and HL looks perfect.Really can't thank you enough for taking the time to check your account.Very kind of you

You’re very welcome! All chipping in with what we can is how I see it.

I’ve got some spare money for another miner this Friday. Undecided on who it will be so it’s useful to read your thoughts. It will probably be a rubber band stock but Friday is a long way away with the rate things are going. It’s never a straight line though so must not chase. I have no Endeavour yet so that’s a prime candidate but might put that one off until end of July when I’ll have more spare. A gold play this time maybe. B2G a contender. Same with RIO2. I’ve liked the look of Adriatic for  a while. 

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5 minutes ago, Errol said:

Presumably a correction in the gold sector is coming up. The shares have just gone insane - including Barrick, gdx, gdxj etc.

I always find this time the hardest Errol.Many stocks im up 50% from bottom ladders and 30%+ on a lot of holdings,even Eldorado Gold has gone into profit,and i least expected that when down 50%,but have to stay level headed.

In other news even online sales are now struggling.Im sure Amazon doesnt need massive sales growth to make it worth $1 trillion and $100 billion free cash flow to jusitfy the price will arrive in the next few years.

https://tamebay.com/2019/06/online-sales-in-may-see-worst-growth-on-record.html

Electricals (-27.5%) now that tells a tale,tapped out consumers.

 

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I know a few are interested in gambling stocks.Eldorado has bought Caesars 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48713474

And William Hill are the partner to Eldorado in running out sports betting in their properties

https://www.igamingbusiness.com/news/eldorado-resorts-finalises-william-hill-partnership

Iv got a very small holding in Hills,but might increase it.

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

Presumably a correction in the gold sector is coming up. The shares have just gone insane - including Barrick, gdx, gdxj etc.

I don't know the future but I think Gold should easily reach 1530-1550 area before any sizeable correction.

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sancho panza
On 23/06/2019 at 10:59, Castlevania said:

@sancho panzaFCX is primarily a copper miner

Yeah I know CV. I like a bit of colour in herd.I've got a couple of purer copper plays but take the view that if the copper dips we'll see the yellow stuff rise.If the yellow stuff doesn't rise then the copper wil.Best of both worlds is that they both rise.Part of a completely imbalanced portfolio.

FCX was also a cracking proxy for the complex back in Mar 08-Oct 08

5 hours ago, Lavalas said:

She sounds wise! It’s a useful reminder that I should restrain from encouraging her to invest in miners. I can stomach potential losses but that’s on the back of my own labour, not hers. Vod first, I reckon.

You’re very welcome! All chipping in with what we can is how I see it.

I’ve got some spare money for another miner this Friday. Undecided on who it will be so it’s useful to read your thoughts. It will probably be a rubber band stock but Friday is a long way away with the rate things are going. It’s never a straight line though so must not chase. I have no Endeavour yet so that’s a prime candidate but might put that one off until end of July when I’ll have more spare. A gold play this time maybe. B2G a contender. Same with RIO2. I’ve liked the look of Adriatic for  a while. 

I opened this years ISAs for me and Mrs P at HL today on the back of your heads up.HSBC have been safe but very poor for the more obscure shares

One more question,who you buying Rio2 through?I had a look on HL today and it didn't come up?

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Errol said:

Presumably a correction in the gold sector is coming up. The shares have just gone insane - including Barrick, gdx, gdxj etc.

That's my view.DXY looks heavily oversold in the short term.Some of the run ups have been incredible.Nothing goes to Heaven in a straight line

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's my view.DXY looks heavily oversold in the short term.Some of the run ups have been incredible.Nothing goes to Heaven in a straight line

Geopolitical tensions are not decreasing, Iran's in trouble which is why they are blowing up oil tankers and China will not agree to anything that doesn't allow them to steal IP at will.  If the Iranians get desperate enough to block the straights of Hormuz then  $1500 gold will be easily met, it was pushing $1440 overnight which is surprising me as I was expecting a pullback to $1360!

Im not trading this apart from trying to time top-ups so it doesn't affect me too much either way.

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11 hours ago, Errol said:

Presumably a correction in the gold sector is coming up. The shares have just gone insane - including Barrick, gdx, gdxj etc.

First Majestic went up near 50% while silver spot has moved very modestly, compared to gold.

Also, NewGold is going haywire. They are kept on life support by copper from New Afton, and majority of their Rainy River 2019 gold production is hedged to stay within 1200-1300 sale price range. $1400 or $1700 spot makes not that big of a difference to them, they have signed themselves out of the rally. So it makes perfect sense they are +25% in just a week :D

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, subutai80 said:

Anyone own NYSEARCA: SOIL (GLB X FUNDS/FERTILIZERS POTASH)? I've owned since 2016 and would like more exposure to the sector but as unable to buy more SOIL been looking through it's holdings. Does anyone have any favourites? any opinions on NYSE: MOS or TSE: NTR?

worabout baglar?

https://www.barings.com/gb/institutional/funds/ucits/barings-global-agriculture-fund/GB00B3B9VB40

 

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Hi Castle Mania, Cattle Prod, ReversionToMean,

Thanks for your really good info. received from you recently. If I may I do have a follow up question.

I have a good allocation of Silver/Gold in mining stocks/ETF's/coins. However, I would like to add some platinum, uranium, copper - for diversification - but crucially as part of my buy and hold strategy - along with my silver/gold holdings. I'm personally considering allocating 5% for platinum and uranium and copper (i.e. totalling 15% of my PM portfolio). I don't want to trade but rather hold for say 10 years, I think its been discussed here that the reflation cycle may plateau around 2028 (I know no one can predict exactly, but I need to have a strategy!).

I'm not asking for investment advise of course but was wondering what your thinking is regarding the PM space outside of silver/gold - do you think the up-trend over next 10 years for these metals may be similar to silver/gold? If you do hold other metals do you have a view on possible gains over say next 10 year (I think DB has suggested silver might 15x/30x, depending on inflation/money printing), I know there are different variable involved but any guestimate would be useful as i'm finding it difficult to judge risk/reward for investing in alternative metals - as buy and hold strategy - compared to say just buying more silver (I would prefer to diversify even if means taking on more risk than holding silver).

All replies very welcome...I know i'm being specific, but I think this question is kinda central to this blog, after all I don't want to miss out on any of that 'generational wealth making' DB has referred to (!?!) - however please feel free to shoot me down if you disagree!  

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah I know CV. I like a bit of colour in herd.I've got a couple of purer copper plays but take the view that if the copper dips we'll see the yellow stuff rise.If the yellow stuff doesn't rise then the copper wil.Best of both worlds is that they both rise.Part of a completely imbalanced portfolio.

FCX was also a cracking proxy for the complex back in Mar 08-Oct 08

I opened this years ISAs for me and Mrs P at HL today on the back of your heads up.HSBC have been safe but very poor for the more obscure shares

One more question,who you buying Rio2 through?I had a look on HL today and it didn't come up?

Oh dear, yeah doesn’t look like Rio2 is available on HL. I’ve rang up and asked them what the process is for making a specific stock available in the past but didn’t follow it through. I don’t think the process is particularly quick though.

Personally I was intending to buy through Interactive Investor as that is who my ISA allowance is with this year. I opted to them because they have every two bit exploreco on the Vancouver/Toronto exchange available and I flirted with investing in some before deciding it’s mostly not for me. Really regretting it now and wish I’d stuck with HL. I’ll be going back next financial year.

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Bricks & Mortar
16 minutes ago, JMD said:

If you do hold other metals do you have a view on possible gains over say next 10 year

I'm holding about 1 tonne of physical lead, (I'm a roofer, been saving the scrap and melting to ingots).  I'm thinking to get rid in the near future.   I think the deflationary event will push many into unemployment and poverty.  Leading to an increase in the scrap lead supply.  At the same time as increased silver mining floods the market with by-product lead.  While everyone in construction tries to use lead substitutes that don't walk in the night.  And vehicle batteries move to new technology.

Just my view - but have been thinking about this particular metal quite a bit, seeing as I have a supply.  I started saving it when I found myself agreeing with the thread premise on the other site - but been re-evaluating.

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reformed nice guy
24 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

 I’ve rang up and asked them what the process is for making a specific stock available in the past but didn’t follow it through. I don’t think the process is particularly quick though.

 

Iv phoned them up and bought shares in a company that wasnt available on the platform (Fanuc Corp). They did it straight away

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28 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Iv phoned them up and bought shares in a company that wasnt available on the platform (Fanuc Corp). They did it straight away

That’s encouraging, cheers. Perhaps a way for @sancho panza to buy Rio2 then, if they want to...

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3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I'm holding about 1 tonne of physical lead, (I'm a roofer, been saving the scrap and melting to ingots).  I'm thinking to get rid in the near future.   I think the deflationary event will push many into unemployment and poverty.  Leading to an increase in the scrap lead supply.  At the same time as increased silver mining floods the market with by-product lead.  While everyone in construction tries to use lead substitutes that don't walk in the night.  And vehicle batteries move to new technology.

Just my view - but have been thinking about this particular metal quite a bit, seeing as I have a supply.  I started saving it when I found myself agreeing with the thread premise on the other site - but been re-evaluating.

thanks Bricks & Mortar, not a precious metal perhaps but I think your absolutely right on lead prices. Must confess had to look up 1 tonne = 2200 lbs apparently ...that's a lot of lead!! 

btw, why 'bricks and morter' if your a roofer? or is this your 'under cover' name! (silly joke, sorry couldn't resist)

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Bricks & Mortar
2 hours ago, JMD said:

btw, why 'bricks and morter'

It was my handle on tos - where I originally joined to read about that sort of thing.  I just carried it over here

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/25/gold-hits-six-year-high-amid-warnings-deflationary-ice-age/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Gold hits six-year high amid warnings of a deflationary ice age

I just love how almost everyone misses the leads and lags in a credit driven economy.Mainstream now.Maybe we should point them all to our two threads.If any bankers are reading we are available freelance,but it cant affect us getting to the reduced counter at Tesco.My dad sold out of Harmony earlier.He touched 48% up and sold.He said at 78 he aint interested in the long term because he might not see it O.o.He phoned me from the working mans club,asked the price and said sell that gold miner xD

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Noallegiance
19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/25/gold-hits-six-year-high-amid-warnings-deflationary-ice-age/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Gold hits six-year high amid warnings of a deflationary ice age

I just love how almost everyone misses the leads and lags in a credit driven economy.Mainstream now.Maybe we should point them all to our two threads.If any bankers are reading we are available freelance,but it cant affect us getting to the reduced counter at Tesco.My dad sold out of Harmony earlier.He touched 48% up and sold.He said at 78 he aint interested in the long term because he might not see it O.o.He phoned me from the working mans club,asked the price and said sell that gold miner xD

On TOS I messaged you privately long ago to thank you for sharing your knowledge. I've not been brave enough to dive into most of the things your talk about as I'm way out of my depth, but I have done some things that have been aided by your guidance.

On behalf of everyone here, lurker or poster, I sincerely hope you have some level of understanding as to the light you shine for the layperson fortunate enough to have made their way to this thread.

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Noallegiance

Anyone care to take a guess as to what the heck the last sentence means?!

BBC Business 19:41

Italian gold plan

The European Central Bank gave an opinion that could clear the way for Italy to sell its gold reserves.

Italy's ruling right-wing League party is looking to show that the Bank of Italy doesn't own the gold it holds in reserve

Italy's opposition say its aim is to allow the ruling coalition to sell the gold to fix Italy's public finance problems. In an official opinion published on the ECB's website, the bank said EU treaties do not use the concept of ownership with regard to official gold reserves.

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Just now, Noallegiance said:

On TOS I messaged you privately long ago to thank you for sharing your knowledge. I've not been brave enough to dive into most of the things your talk about as I'm way out of my depth, but I have done some things that have been aided by your guidance.

On behalf of everyone here, lurker or poster, I sincerely hope you have some level of understanding as to the light you shine for the layperson fortunate enough to have made their way to this thread.

I just started the threads ,there are now many great people with fields of knowledge contributing.I must say though iv come close to stopping posting for one reason or another a few times.Im actually quite tired and at the end of the day im just a factory worker who collates information from many sources both known to me and outside.

What interests me now is the UK market.I had thought many reflation stocks would get to PEs between 6 and 8 after a crash,but many are there already.The question now is this.Is my roadmap right that they will turn at those levels,or not?.If its right then they would have to turn while US markets tank.Thats a big ask.The market is pricing them now to say deflation/dis-inflation will destroy them and they are simply companies in a liquidation process.Given my ladders are now being filled right down to 4th and even 5th (last) points my capital is going to suffer a good deal of pain if the market it right,and my roadmap wrong that deflation will usher in a reflation cycle.Time will tell.

 

 

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