Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[janch]

Just found this excellent article about gold and miners etc on the front page of AJBell's website so anyone can access it and you don't have to be an investor on their platform:

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/175869/how-play-gold-if-precious-metals-price-really-starts-shine

I'm finding their free Shares magazine useful too for general advice and some share tips (I haven't bought any as yet!).  This comes free every week if you have investments with them (over £4K) I think.

DB please take encourgement that so far your roadmap has been spot on and I for one decided to give investing another go having had my fingers badly burnt in the past.  Hopefully I have a more informed and considered approach than before.  Many thanks too for all the other posters most of whom have far greater knowlege than me.

I also like Max Keiser on RT 3x per week 8.30pm on Tues, Thurs, Sat although he does come across as a bit mad!  He says to buy gold and bitcoin.  I haven't taken the plunge with BTC yet............

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I just started the threads ,there are now many great people with fields of knowledge contributing.I must say though iv come close to stopping posting for one reason or another a few times.Im actually quite tired and at the end of the day im just a factory worker who collates information from many sources both known to me and outside.

What interests me now is the UK market.I had thought many reflation stocks would get to PEs between 6 and 8 after a crash,but many are there already.The question now is this.Is my roadmap right that they will turn at those levels,or not?.If its right then they would have to turn while US markets tank.Thats a big ask.The market is pricing them now to say deflation/dis-inflation will destroy them and they are simply companies in a liquidation process.Given my ladders are now being filled right down to 4th and even 5th (last) points my capital is going to suffer a good deal of pain if the market it right,and my roadmap wrong that deflation will usher in a reflation cycle.Time will tell.

 

 

 

@DurhamBorn Well i hope ya don't... NOT only will I (i'm sure i speak for MOST of us here) MISS ya updated stocks & deflation/reflation cycle posts...

 

But MOST of all for me, i'll miss your frugal-money-saving-tips-bargain-reduced-section posts!

 

BTW, did the boot sale Sunday for the 1st time this year. anyway for some reason i got up early, after a bacon-butty sandwich (reduced 49p for whole bacon pack lol) , made my way to the boot sale on me push-bike.

 

Had to cut a lot of the overgrown brambles etc with my small but Heavy Duty Hand Cutter Pruners! ...making a 2 quid saving on the entrance fee

 

AND what da ya know when i got inside it was 8:40am and the public were still queuing (they open 9am) as i made my way to the BEST stalls, oh boy did i CLEAN UP!

[spunko]

Does anyone in this thread have any crypto currency out of interest? Aside from those posting in the 'Investing' thread.

[leonardratso]

i had a lot last year, this year i have zero, well £100 worth earlier in the year, but i sold it all out when it was worth £200 and left a £100 sat on a limit order, it doesnt look like it will ever get filled now, or at least not for a long time.

Should have filled your fantasy portfolio socks from end of 2018 spunko, youd have been quids in. I think the spreasheet still exists, but cant remember where now.

[DoINeedOne]

16 minutes ago, spunko said:

Does anyone in this thread have any crypto currency out of interest? Aside from those posting in the 'Investing' thread.

Yes XRP (don't laugh)

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

https://www.ft.com/content/33ff579e-97e0-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36

UK transport operator Stagecoach is planning a retreat from rail to focus on its bus and coach business after it faces losing three key contracts this year.

The company said it had no plans to bid for new UK rail franchises once its operations ended in November. Stagecoach was disqualified from the auction of three significant routes including East Midlands and the West coast mainline, which it operates with Virgin after it was unwilling to take on “well in excess of £1bn” of pensions liability.

Martin Griffiths, chief executive, said on Wednesday that it was “highly unlikely” the company would be involved in UK rail again, but would “never say never”. Stagecoach is taking legal action against the Department for Transport over the rail franchise contests.

The travel group revealed a sharp rise in pre-tax profit to £101.2m for the year to April, compared with £77.6m a year earlier largely because of charges relating to the sale of its US business taken in 2018. Excluding these profits rose 3 per cent. Annual revenue from continuing operations fell to £1.9bn from £2.9bn, mainly because of its South West and East Coast franchises ending.

Analysts at AJ Bell said that while the loss of the rail franchises “could blow a hole in Stagecoach’s revenue”, the minimal profit expected from its rail arm helped explain the move away from the business. Stagecoach’s rail operations have come under pressure from strong competition. Last year its East Coast rail franchise was renationalised after coming close to collapse. It also sold off Variant, its North American bus business, for $271m, amid a competitive US market where low oil prices encouraged people to drive instead. Shares in the Perth-based transport group hit a 15-year low in early morning trading on Wednesday but recovered and by lunchtime were up 1.9 per cent.

Mr Griffiths added that the company would “continue to focus on driving growth at our core high quality bus and coach operations in the UK”. Operating profit for the regional and London bus operations was £127.7m in the year to April, compared with £24.6m for rail. But the London bus routes are also under pressure. Bus use across London has fallen for four consecutive years and Transport for London is planning further cuts to services, according to the company. As a result Stagecoach has said it will review its bidding processes for TfL contracts to improve revenue and profitability on those routes. AJ Bell added that while it could be a bumpy ride, “ultimately the company could come out the other side a more streamlined and efficient business”.

[leonardratso]

can someone do me a favour please next time they sign in to HL, can you just check and see if SLVP& SSLV give the same NAV value/ETC description,, thanks, much appreciated if someone could remember.

[kibuc]

46 minutes ago, spunko said:

Does anyone in this thread have any crypto currency out of interest? Aside from those posting in the 'Investing' thread.

I've got BTC. Might buy some more this week as I'm cash-heavy (physical cash, as in £50 notes in a jar) and I'm impressed with BTC resurgence with hardly any media coverage. It was all over the news when it broke £1k but it seems forgotten at £13k. When the sentiment returns it might get interesting.

Might be a Libra effect, it's not a cryptocurrency but is portrayed as such and it might make the entire cyrptosphere seem more legitimate to an average Joe. Still, relatively high barriers of entry remain.

[spunko]

44 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i had a lot last year, this year i have zero, well £100 worth earlier in the year, but i sold it all out when it was worth £200 and left a £100 sat on a limit order, it doesnt look like it will ever get filled now, or at least not for a long time.

Should have filled your fantasy portfolio socks from end of 2018 spunko, youd have been quids in. I think the spreasheet still exists, but cant remember where now.

I cant even remember entering that... Be interested to see how I did.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

 

I'm no investing expert. All I know is that all my assets should not be too correlated. I generally choose boring divi payers and have no crystal balls.

My shares (70%) are mostly FTSE100/250 with a mix of UK earnings and foreign earnings. I like the FTSE for regulatory reasons but want a spread of earning sources. I spread across sectors with 20+ different shares i.e. mining, banking, retail, land etc.....

The platinum and silver ETCs (20%) seem to be less correlated to shares than gold.

The rest is cash (10%) ready for any good deals that may come up.

My house equity is similar value to the SIPP.

I have no bonds.  If I came across a corporate bond investment trust with low costs, I would do it but haven't found any so far. Returns would be low but it spreads the risk.

 

Yes, I am diversified generally speaking across the market, and particularly trying to get a reflation edge. But recently I noticed that my PM allocations didn't include platinum or uranium. I subsequently got great tips from you guys on here, then did my own research to be certain, but now am in a quandary because I want to use all my PM's as buy-and-hold, for say 10+ years, until near/end of reflation cycle.

So I guess I'm seeking some expertise from 'PM experts' on whether platinum/uranium could possibly trend similar to silver or gold over the next 10 years - or at least have potential to - or is it not suited for holding and should instead be looked at as a short/medium term trade only?     

 

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

I cant even remember entering that... Be interested to see how I did.

ill digi it out, i think i put the inital prices in when people made their bets and then we had a live price update column and some columns for profit/loss and %ages, was pretty dynamic and accurate, had a $-->£ and CAD$-->£ converter in it as well, ill take a poke around and post the link. It was fully open as well so anyone could alter/add what they wanted.

 

[leonardratso]

heres the thread;

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/7261-fantasy-investor-2018/page/1

heres the google sheet, was a bit knackered so ive done a bit of fixing, also looks like our scrapers for crypto now have a lookup limit on them, but anyway, looks like you would have bought at about £153 ish - what is it now - £275 on gdax (coinbase pro), so an 80% gain or so, but having said that, im pretty sure that it was at one point about £80 and crypto resurgence is basically not a given (hence my using the word bets above), same as shares. I see  no reason why it cant again be £80 or lower (like zero) at some point in the future.

If you look thru the thread i think you wanted ethereum, we worked the sheet on the premise that everyone bought just 1 share or coin of what they wanted.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lggMOk7ZJd0TkFQamiN_jWgyhnJ3kLuJ2BhmjFmbVwY/edit#gid=1662780564

Looks like some one added a few more sheets as well, wasnt me, i just supplied the account and opened it out to here.

castlevanias LON:SHG gave crypto performance as well by the look of it. Mainstream bluechips (much to my chagrin) like CNA/VOD look like shit on that sheet. Good job i didnt just slap all my spare cash in those donks.

[leonardratso]

FANTASY INVESTOR 2018 DOSBODS							26/06/2019	usd/gdp 03/11/2018 :	0.7702		usd/gbp now :	0.7875
								cad/gdp 03/11/2018 :	0.5869		cad/gbp now :	0.6005
UID	Invested in	p/unit NAV @03/11/2018	p/unit NAV now	Profit/Loss pence	Profit/Loss Percent(%)	Total P/L (%) per UID	Notes
spunko	ETH/GBP	15,398.00	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	gb pence
stokiescum	lon:gaw	3,230.00	4,890.00	1,660.00	51.39%		gb pence
	lon:iqe	96.30	58.55	-37.75	-39.20%		gb pence
	lon:vod	150.52	125.76	-24.76	-16.45%		gb pence
	lon:bp	533.30	554.80	21.50	4.03%	40.37%	gb pence
castlevania	lon:shg	4.32	7.81	3.49	80.79%	80.79%	gb pence
kibuc	tse:wdo	237.11	320.07	82.96	34.99%	34.99%	ca cents->gb pence
nicolas turgeon	nysearca:udn	1,631.28	1,649.03	17.74	1.09%		us cents->gb pence
	nysearca:gdxj	2,161.18	2,768.06	606.88	28.08%	16.47%	us cents->gb pence
sound money	BTC/GBP	489,806.17	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!		gb pence
	nyse:auy	181.77	196.09	14.32	7.88%	#ERROR!	us cents->gb pence
ponty mython	lon:infa	0.51	0.71	0.20	39.22%		gb pence
	tse:tgz	207.18	230.59	23.42	11.30%	11.37%	ca cents->gb pence
doineedone	XRP/GBP	35.74	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!		gb pence
	spot gold 1oz	95,165.91	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#ERROR!	us cents->gb pence
sancho panza	lon:cna	145.10	87.40	-57.70	-39.77%		gb pence
	lon:vod	150.52	125.76	-24.76	-16.45%	-27.89%	gb pence
green devil	TRX/GBP	1.81	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!		gb pence
	EOS/GBP	422.02	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!		gb pence
	ETH/GBP	15,398.00	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	#ERROR!	gb pence
janch	nasdaq:fb	11,368.92	14,878.24	3,509.32	30.87%		us cents->gb pence
	nasdaq:amzn	123,669.47	149,310.00	25,640.53	20.73%		us cents->gb pence
	nasdaq:aapl	15,458.68	15,801.19	342.50	2.22%		us cents->gb pence
	nasdaq:nflx	23,638.21	28,674.45	5,036.24	21.31%		us cents->gb pence
	nasdaq:goog	78,743.71	84,990.15	6,246.44	7.93%	16.12%	us cents->gb pence
lavalas	tse:wdo	237.11	320.07	82.96	34.99%		ca cents->gb pence
	cve:gtt	107.99	54.65	-53.34	-49.40%		ca cents->gb pence
	indexsp:.inx	209,981.94	230,205.15	20,223.21	9.63%	9.63%	us cents->gb pence
dgul	lon:aca	158.65	179.40	20.75	13.08%	13.08%	gb pence
malthus	lon:lnga	2,532.42	877.28	-1,655.14	-65.36%	-65.36%	us cents->gb pence

[subutai80]

11 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

The platinum and silver ETCs (20%) seem to be less correlated to shares than gold

Which has been a shame otherwise i'd have made a killing! (hold similar %age as you)

[nirvana]

@leonardratso

SLVP - nowt found!

SSLV -> 

INVESCO PHYSICAL MARKETS SILVER P-ETC 31/12/60 USD (SSLV)
Sell:$14.82 Buy:$14.84   $0.12 (0.80%)

Edit: good heads up on that one, think I'm in for £5k worth tomorrow lol

Edit again: found this one!

ISHARES PHYSICAL METALS PLC PHYSICAL SILVER ETC (SSLN)
Sell:1,167.00p Buy:1,168.50p   6.50p (0.55%)

And they do this one - that's your lot for search 'silver etc'

XTRACKERS PHYSICAL SILVER ETC (XSIL)
Sell:$146.98 Buy:$147.13   $1.19 (0.80%)

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, confused said:

SLVP - nowt found!

SSLV -> 

INVESCO PHYSICAL MARKETS SILVER P-ETC 31/12/60 USD (SSLV)
Sell:$14.82 Buy:$14.84   $0.12 (0.80%)

thanks dude,  (or dudette?),  ive got some SSLV at the mo, wanted SLVP but when i look it up i just get quoted for SSLV, not even a 'not found', maybe im just getting confused over the 2, ill just forget about it, but thanks anyway.

[leonardratso]

14 minutes ago, confused said:

@leonardratso

SLVP - nowt found!

SSLV -> 

INVESCO PHYSICAL MARKETS SILVER P-ETC 31/12/60 USD (SSLV)
Sell:$14.82 Buy:$14.84   $0.12 (0.80%)

Edit: good heads up on that one, think I'm in for £5k worth tomorrow lol

Edit again: found this one!

ISHARES PHYSICAL METALS PLC PHYSICAL SILVER ETC (SSLN)
Sell:1,167.00p Buy:1,168.50p   6.50p (0.55%)

And they do this one - that's your lot for search 'silver etc'

XTRACKERS PHYSICAL SILVER ETC (XSIL)
Sell:$146.98 Buy:$147.13   $1.19 (0.80%)

looks like they are all just alias's for the same thing, SSLN, SSLV SVLP, not heard of XSIl, ill have a look at that, bit steep, wonder what it comprises of.

SSLN is probably just the gbp version of SSLV by the look of it, but im sure i saw SVLP for $9 odd somewhere and the description was Silver MINERS rather than physical silver, ah well, its unlikely ill be able to backtrack my web history and find it again, probably some old piece of crap or maybe its american only. Never mind, something will turn up.

SSLV isnt a great performer, doesnt seem to jump/dump with the price or sentiment like the miners do, at least it has little counter party risk, so is probably worth having just in case silver decides to fly, very much the litecoin of the metals market at the moment by the look of it.

[Bear Hug]

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

https://www.ft.com/content/33ff579e-97e0-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36

UK transport operator Stagecoach is planning a retreat from rail to focus on its bus and coach business after it faces losing three key contracts this year.

The company said it had no plans to bid for new UK rail franchises once its operations ended in November. Stagecoach was disqualified from the auction of three significant routes including East Midlands and the West coast mainline, which it operates with Virgin after it was unwilling to take on “well in excess of £1bn” of pensions liability.

 

I bought some first thing this morning, inspired by this forum and the recent dip.  Even splashed out on full AJ Bell dealing fee. 

[Lavalas]

21 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Funnily enough I was pondering Interactive Investor...what were the pluses and minuses of their service?

Big plus is that they appear to have every metals explorer under the sun available. Really seems like any company that’s even thought about sticking a drill in the ground is on there. Happy to check anything you would like. The platform and app do the job just fine too.

Only minus for me is costs which changed shortly after I’d deposited. It’s £9.99 a month but you get £7.99 (the cost of one US/UK trade) back as trading fees credit, which lasts up to 90 days. So all good if you’re trading a bit but my ‘portfolio’ just isn’t of that size really. I need to take some profits in HL and work those within that ISA.

4 hours ago, leonardratso said:

can someone do me a favour please next time they sign in to HL, can you just check and see if SLVP& SSLV give the same NAV value/ETC description,, thanks, much appreciated if someone could remember.

Had a look and SLVP haven’t supplied a KID so can’t view any details on NAV or description. 

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Big plus is that they appear to have every metals explorer under the sun available. Really seems like any company that’s even thought about sticking a drill in the ground is on there. Happy to check anything you would like. The platform and app do the job just fine too.

Only minus for me is costs which changed shortly after I’d deposited. It’s £9.99 a month but you get £7.99 of that back as trading fees credit. So all good if you’re trading a bit but my ‘portfolio’ just isn’t of that size really. I need to take some profits in HL and work those within that ISA.

Had a look and SLVP haven’t supplied a KID so can’t view any details on NAV or description. 

cheers anyway, ive got a HL account which i opened with a quid last year, but i just couldnt be arsed to use it, too much faff with all the security and passwords etc.

[Noallegiance]

BBC Business:

19:10

Pension danger list

The Pensions Regulator has two danger lists of defined benefit schemes - those are the more sought-after ones where you get a percentage of final salary - its new chief executive said.

Charles Counsell told MPs in the Work and Pensions Select Committee that 50 schemes are being monitored for short-term and long-term trouble, according to FT Adviser.

They can collapse if assets under-perform or pensioners live longer than expected, or if sponsoring companies go bust.

[nirvana]

I found this one (not for widows and orphans methinks)

ETFS COMMODITY SECURITIES 3X DAILY LONG SILVER (SI3L)

anybody dabbling?

[Ash4781b]

There’s Increasing focus on liquidity and The regulators are piping up.  

[Barnsey]

So Bitcoin dropped 13% in just 1 minute, yeah no thanks I'll sit this one out...

[Castlevania]

It’s almost as if Ambrose Evans Pritchard of the Torygraph has been reading this thread. 

One article on gold and a deflationary ice age

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/25/gold-hits-six-year-high-amid-warnings-deflationary-ice-age/

And another on “investment QE” as a response to such a downturn.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/26/next-tory-leader-does-not-tear-rule-book-spending-corbyn-will/