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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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5 hours ago, JMD said:

thanks Stockton, ref cannabis investing I think i'll go low risk and buy some big tobacco stock.

Thats exactly what I am doing!

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11 hours ago, stockton said:

Thats exactly what I am doing!

One thing that has happened since i started investing aged 14 is that every 10 years people say tobacco is finished and a terrible investment.Each time so far i have bought heavily into the sector,and each time iv made silly amounts of money.This time could be different,there is no doubt smoking is under huge pressure in the west etc.However these companies have massive free cash generation and there is a huge market developing in new areas.Big tobacco will dominate cannabis.In Vaping people also seem to think there will be 100s of players so low profits.Not so.Once the sector develops regulations will come in more and more.Small companies wont be able to hit them.Big tobacco will also push all retailers to make sure their products get the shelf space.Others will be squeezed out.BAT has 7000 million of free cash .Seven thousand million.No small vape players or cannabis will be able to compete.

The only worry i have at these prices is debts are too high given im expecting rates to increase by a lot in several years.That means i want to see them continue to de-leverage by the £1.5 billion a year BAT and around £800 million a year Imperial.That would mean they retire a good portion before rates increase and then have the other 50%/60% of debt rolled over into bonds before rates increase and then roll those off.I also hope Imperial drop their dividend increases to perhaps 4% or RPI after this year,and BAT keep increases again to 4%.

Not reflation stocks,but im very happy to have added both back to my portfolio.

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Democorruptcy

Car payments are ruining our lives

Victoria put down £300 as a deposit and has to pay £329 a month for five years.

As a first year university student with a part-time job she'd originally gone out looking for a much smaller - and less expensive - car to help her get to and from lectures. But she was persuaded to buy the Audi, which will end up costing her more than £20,000. Mandy says her other daughter, Natasha, also took out car finance and was told to bring in three pay slips to prove she could afford the repayments.

But Mandy says there was nothing like that, what's known as an affordability assessment, for Victoria.

..

That's an issue that is key to Mandy's question about how her daughter was able to sign up to a car finance plan for more than £20,000 without being asked to provide any evidence she could actually afford the repayments.

"She [Victoria] should never ever have been sold that, or offered a car like that. She should have been given [an affordability] test to prove she could afford it, but the company didn't do it.

"I think it's criminal, the impact it's had on the family, my daughter, it's outrageous."

Car finance: The figures

  • £45.9bn was borrowed in 2018 for car finance
  • 91.2% of all new cars were bought using finance
  • 2.9 million cars were financed by members of the Finance and Leasing Association
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38 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Car payments are ruining our lives

Victoria put down £300 as a deposit and has to pay £329 a month for five years.

As a first year university student with a part-time job she'd originally gone out looking for a much smaller - and less expensive - car to help her get to and from lectures. But she was persuaded to buy the Audi, which will end up costing her more than £20,000. Mandy says her other daughter, Natasha, also took out car finance and was told to bring in three pay slips to prove she could afford the repayments.

But Mandy says there was nothing like that, what's known as an affordability assessment, for Victoria.

..

That's an issue that is key to Mandy's question about how her daughter was able to sign up to a car finance plan for more than £20,000 without being asked to provide any evidence she could actually afford the repayments.

"She [Victoria] should never ever have been sold that, or offered a car like that. She should have been given [an affordability] test to prove she could afford it, but the company didn't do it.

"I think it's criminal, the impact it's had on the family, my daughter, it's outrageous."

Car finance: The figures

  • £45.9bn was borrowed in 2018 for car finance
  • 91.2% of all new cars were bought using finance
  • 2.9 million cars were financed by members of the Finance and Leasing Association

Is Victoria an adult , can she add and understand English ? 

If yes to all three suck it up you’ve just had a £20 k lesson in not being fecking stupid 👍

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52 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Car payments are ruining our lives

Victoria put down £300 as a deposit and has to pay £329 a month for five years.

As a first year university student with a part-time job she'd originally gone out looking for a much smaller - and less expensive - car to help her get to and from lectures. But she was persuaded to buy the Audi, which will end up costing her more than £20,000. Mandy says her other daughter, Natasha, also took out car finance and was told to bring in three pay slips to prove she could afford the repayments.

But Mandy says there was nothing like that, what's known as an affordability assessment, for Victoria.

..

That's an issue that is key to Mandy's question about how her daughter was able to sign up to a car finance plan for more than £20,000 without being asked to provide any evidence she could actually afford the repayments.

"She [Victoria] should never ever have been sold that, or offered a car like that. She should have been given [an affordability] test to prove she could afford it, but the company didn't do it.

"I think it's criminal, the impact it's had on the family, my daughter, it's outrageous."

Car finance: The figures

  • £45.9bn was borrowed in 2018 for car finance
  • 91.2% of all new cars were bought using finance
  • 2.9 million cars were financed by members of the Finance and Leasing Association

No sympathy with these people. They should only be let off if they are clinically retarded (i.e sub 80 IQ) or otherwise mentally ill.

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4 minutes ago, Errol said:

No sympathy with these people. They should only be let off if they are clinically retarded (i.e sub 80 IQ) or otherwise mentally ill.

Not sure how the distribution looks, but you'd imagine with an average IQ of 100, a sub-80 score would probably be around a quarter of the population! 

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If someone is tested and has an IQ of 80 or below then I would let them off. It would mean they are totally incapable of entering into any contract or agreement.

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

 But she was persuaded to buy the Audi, which will end up costing her more than £20,000.

I'm sure it took a lot of persuading. Probably a gun to the head or something of similar ilk. 

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There’s YOLO and that is strong for civilians these days everywhere I go- and there’s also the gambling mentality too- if I get this great car... who knows what might happen..?

Denial means they don’t think they will have to Honour the debt- and vivid imagination means they think they might Get Discovered and with their new shiny car/and attitude/and looks maybe get onto Love Island or something. 

Not everybody finds this Frugal- Wonderful- Jedi- like thread.

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Castlevania

Being a non car person if I had to buy a car (I live in London so use public transport or walk) then I’d buy a second hand runner for a max of £2k. Ideally less. 

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Being a non car person if I had to buy a car (I live in London so use public transport or walk) then I’d buy a second hand runner for a max of £2k. Ideally less. 

being a non car person you're asking for trouble playing bangernomics. I spent a bit of time looking at older cars and in the end just wasn't worth it, nor my time. Its a complete minefield and unless you know what to look for and even better can fix yourself, imo, asking to get burnt, badly. Most people here with the right purchase could happily afford £50-£100 a month in depreciation and costs for peace of mind.

In the end I opted for a spotless low milage, three year old private purchase. 

With that said:

 

 

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leonardratso

no need to say anything at this juncture really, these people are arseholes, they know it, we know it, suck it up buttercup.

They will be poorer than ever after theyve finished the plan or have had to bankrupt themselves to avoid it, they still wont have a car, but hopefully they will realise that nothing is free and easy for the (slightly below/above even) average pleb.

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I think on cars paying around £5k for something 4 years oldish is the sweet spot and then keep it 10 years.Always go for a car that has been in production for a long time and is mass market.These have most faults ironed out and parts are cheap.it also means if a big part goes (gearbox,engine etc) you can get one from a scrapyard.Then find a local grease monkey backstreet garage where just the lads work there,no receptionist etc.Use them every time for all cars in the family and take them yourself.I have the figures somewhere but i think my average car cost since i was 18 is £8 a week,so roughly £36 a month.Thats all depreciation and repairs.

I build engines for a living.What breaks cars is mainly crap driving and temperature.Speeding up too fast,breaking too hard,cornering too fast etc.Another huge one is starting a car and pulling away straight away,especially in winter.Turn the key and allow the engine to run a minute in idle before pulling away.That will help your engine last pretty much forever.

Cars are built amazingly well now and can easily last 20 years without too much of a problem.Car parks are rammed with brand new ones though on lease deals.Lidl you cant move for Range Rovers,mercs and audis.

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DYOR etc etc  obviously folks... but here’s my current Stage Analysis for anybody who wants to compare theirs with this list while watching Glastonbury... for what it’s worth...

DXY.                 3/4

888.                 3

AEM.                2 

AG                    2

AU                    2

AUY.                  1/2

BAB.                  4

BATS.                 1/2

BHP.                   2

BT.                       4

B2Gold.               2

CDE.                   4/1....

CNA.                     4

DRX.                     3/4

EDR.                      4/1

EGO.                      1/2

FGP.                        4/1

FNV.                         2

Fres.                         4/1

GDX.                         2

GDXJ.                        2

GFI.                             2

GOG.                           2

GPR.                            1-2

GSAT.                           4/1

GVC.                             4/1

HL.                                4/1

HMY.                             2

HOC.                              2

IBTL.                              2

IMB.                              4

INFA.                             1

ITH.                                 1

MAG.                            2

Nat Grid.                      1

NGold.                          4/1

PAAS.                            4/1

PTEC.                            4/1

SBGL.                            2

SGC.                               4/1

SIL.                                  4/1

SMT.                                3

SVM.                              2

USAS.                            1/2

VGZ.                               1/2

VOD.                                4 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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20 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Car payments are ruining our lives

Victoria put down £300 as a deposit and has to pay £329 a month for five years.

As a first year university student with a part-time job she'd originally gone out looking for a much smaller - and less expensive - car to help her get to and from lectures. But she was persuaded to buy the Audi, which will end up costing her more than £20,000. Mandy says her other daughter, Natasha, also took out car finance and was told to bring in three pay slips to prove she could afford the repayments.

But Mandy says there was nothing like that, what's known as an affordability assessment, for Victoria.

..

That's an issue that is key to Mandy's question about how her daughter was able to sign up to a car finance plan for more than £20,000 without being asked to provide any evidence she could actually afford the repayments.

"She [Victoria] should never ever have been sold that, or offered a car like that. She should have been given [an affordability] test to prove she could afford it, but the company didn't do it.

"I think it's criminal, the impact it's had on the family, my daughter, it's outrageous."

Car finance: The figures

  • £45.9bn was borrowed in 2018 for car finance
  • 91.2% of all new cars were bought using finance
  • 2.9 million cars were financed by members of the Finance and Leasing Association

I really hope things are coming to a head

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Chewing Grass

A good response to the above

28 points · 3 hours ago
 

When I was in my mid twenties, I bought a flash car on finance (well, I thought it was flash). It felt great for the first couple of months as it was really nice to drive something that good. Fast forward a few months, and all those warm feelings had gone. Now it was just another car, and all I could think about was the several hundreds of pounds coming out of my bank account each month. I sold that car and bought something much more affordable.

Anyway, my theory is that you get used to nice things just as quickly as you get used to regular things. The shine always wears off very quickly.

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12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Anyway, my theory is that you get used to nice things just as quickly as you get used to regular things. The shine always wears off very quickly.

In my experience, it also works the other way: you get used to living cheaply, and can be equally happy with a frugal lifestyle as an expensive one. However, in the frugal case, there are many more options for an occasional treat.

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Bobthebuilder
24 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I really hope things are coming to a head

The whole Range Rover thing really annoys me, they seem to be every other 5th car in London. Give it a few years once the low emission zone is in and they will be worthless.

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Durabo said:

I really hope things are coming to a head

I think something like 80% of people earn under 40K,

probably if someone is on 80K they in the top 5% of earners

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leonardratso
5 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I think something like 80% of people earn under 40K,

probably if someone is on 80K they in the top 5% of earners

no no no, not on reddit where everyone tells the entire truth 100% of the time, in fact i think you have to earn over 80K to sign up and comment on reddit, they check your payslips and credit history and everything. I hear spunkos going to enforce career checking on here, any sjw type careers will lead to an instant ban apparently, but i may have just made that up since i cant actually supply any confirmation evidence. (since it doesnt exist).

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4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The whole Range Rover thing really annoys me, they seem to be every other 5th car in London. Give it a few years once the low emission zone is in and they will be worthless.

Have you heard the radio add for the Evoque? Marketing it as the best way to discover the city... hardly! An Aygo is much more suited and 1/4 the price spec for spec I bet!

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3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

any sjw type careers will lead to an instant ban apparently

Will I be alright as an LGBTQ+ support coordinator and transgender community outreach consultant with special responsibility for inner-city arts development? I'm thinking of jacking in my IT Support gig too much like hard work. 

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On ‎28‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 18:53, DoINeedOne said:

Whilst obviously i don't expect everyone to have a interest in him or the subjects he discusses but i couldn't help but notice his following number

964971700_2019-06-2806_50_49pm.png.c522ac5b3157ad0210d9c3f3f1157f1d.png

77778623_2019-06-2806_51_23pm.png.5ff60836afbf494da25b05bed77b3685.png

Unfair comparison or maybe everything that's wrong these days

To be fair... give Prof. Werner another 8 years and he may have notched up another 6o million followers. Then again social media is mostly toxic so to be expected I suppose.

However, I didn't expect the senior ex-banker in the RT interview to be totally unaware (he took out pen and pencil to make a note) of the peculiar electoral role of the City of London, or that it doesn't fall neatly within the jurisdiction of the UK, hence why it can operate more 'independantly' than it would otherwise be allowed do within the confines of the EU.

 

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Bobthebuilder
58 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Have you heard the radio add for the Evoque? Marketing it as the best way to discover the city... hardly! An Aygo is much more suited and 1/4 the price spec for spec I bet!

Yep, my wife has a VW Up more than enough for the smoke. Mind you /, she has been hit by a large 4x4 twice so far.

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