Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

theres its rally (and death) for this...

 

Why does my chart look nothing like your chart?

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Why does my chart look nothing like your chart?

 

this ones USD from NYSE, is yours CAD?

[Loki]

Just now, leonardratso said:

 

this ones USD from NYSE, is yours CAD?

 

It is indeed, I look forward to watching the belated plunge

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

It is indeed, I look forward to watching the belated plunge

ah yes, the CAD on the chart gives it away i see now. Missed that.

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

few years back had an old 06 golf tdi 19.PD, got to 130K when check engine light came on, quick scan said 1 glow plug was shot, wankers had put them under the cam shaft so got them out and tested them, ecu was bullshitting, 3 were shot and 1 was good, swapped them all out so all good. What isurprised me was the real lack of wear on the camshaft @130K miles, it was like it was brand new, thats from changing oil every 9-10K and using the expensive oil, came close to that 20 years ago with an old 16valve gti that had near 250K on the clock, i was living in manchester then and rapid fit on washway road were doing any car oil+filter for £9.99, i was in every 30 days for nearly 2 years with the gti, the oil was cheap bulk oil, but it was changed so often it didnt matter. Car ended up stolen, which was good really, since it was completely shagged, mainly by me.

Ah back in the day when VW made good cars. I had a mk1 Lhasa pirelli gti, then a mk2 but a 8 valve, heavily modded, it could out run sl Mercs at the time, revved like a mad man. In fact the revs went up and down almost as fast as my Harmony gold shares...

[dgul]

5 hours ago, Rave said:

Sorry to be a geek about this relatively trivial point but I've seen plenty of advvice against doing this. At idle the load on the engine is practically nothing and not much heat is being generated by burning such a small amount of fuel, so it takes a lot longer to warm up- hence you're running the engine cold for longer. I would agree that if you pull off your driveway onto a national speed limit road and need to accelerate hard up to speed straight away then warm it up first, but from my house it's the best part of half a mile before I even reach a 30 limit road, so I just pull away and short shift at 2-2.5k (or <2k on my larger engined cars)- which is more than enough to hit 20mph without holding anyone up.

The advice against 'waiting for it to warm' is more about not being worthwhile leaving the engine idling on a cold winters day to get the cabin warm -- it warms up much faster when you're driving.

It is certainly worthwhile waiting for the oil to circulate properly before moving off -- which takes a bit longer than you'd think.

[Lavalas]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

It is indeed, I look forward to watching the belated plunge

 

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

ah yes, the CAD on the chart gives it away i see now. Missed that.

Canadian exchanges closed today for Canada day. See where it goes tomorrow...

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

 

Canadian exchanges closed today for Canada day. See where it goes tomorrow...

Oh I can hazard a guess!

[Dogtania]

Thanks @Lavalas finally just worked out the discrepancy, was wondering what sort of bank holiday was on.  

[sancho panza]

For anyone who would like a great laymens explanation of how debt deflations kick off and run through an economy,Wolf surpasses himself with this 12 minute video.A credit/debt deflation is a near mathematical certainty.

As discussed before,rising interest rates don't really get a mention because they're more an accelerant for the fire than anything else

 

[sancho panza]

 

Makes a change.

[sancho panza]

Does Woodford own any?

Market Cap £5.13bn

https://www.investing.com/equities/auto-trader-group-plc

[Funn3r]

16 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

WHY listern to YRS...cos i'm am an EX- 35 years man&boy center lathe 

Good one YRS. I went for a job once as lathe operator but I got turned down. 

[Harley]

On 29/06/2019 at 22:12, Thorn said:

.....here’s my current Stage Analysis for anybody who wants to compare theirs with this list......

@Thorn thanks for the share.  Monthly, weekly, or daily?  Close fit to my weekly based system.

[Harley]

On 30/06/2019 at 23:42, sancho panza said:

.....Worth a read particualrly @Harley.....

@sancho panza very timely given the really rubbish trade I'm currently in, having broken most of those rules!

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Good one YRS. I went for a job once as lathe operator but I got turned down. 

should have knurled down and begged them.

[JMD]

On ‎30‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 22:06, sancho panza said:

I'd wait till they've tanked 90 % of peak, then buy Bat, Phil Morris and Imperial for when they hoover up.

Thank you SP. Yes I do plan to buy these type of stocks after we get the 'market correction'.

But when you say ‘90% of peak’, are you referring to the tobacco stock peak that occurred approx. in Q2-2017? …after all BAT and Imperial Brands are UK listed, whereas Phillip Morris is US. So would you expect all to fall so dramatically?

 

I ask because I think this feeds into a general question - occasionally discussed here but not for some time - that as we edge ever nearer, I wonder if expectations have changed as to what form the stock market correction will take in terms of the global markets?

For example, I think the majority opinion here has been that the S&P could fall dramatically say between 30-70% drop toward the end of this year. But that European markets may drop less. And the UK FTSE may not fall by much as some consider it fair value already. But what will Asian markets do?    

[Thorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

@Thorn thanks for the share.  Monthly, weekly, or daily?  Close fit to my weekly based system.

Yes weekly for sure- too choppy otherwise I think. 

[Lavalas]

14 hours ago, Dogtania said:

Thanks @Lavalas finally just worked out the discrepancy, was wondering what sort of bank holiday was on.  

No worries - to be aware also that the US Exchange is closed tomorrow afternoon and all day Thursday for Independence Day.

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

No worries - to be aware also that the US Exchange is closed tomorrow afternoon and all day Thursday for Independence Day.

so expect the ftsie to meander lazily to the left and down without any leader to show it which way to go (for a day and a half).

 

[Errol]

In case people haven't been paying attention:

 

- Emergency meeting of the EU Security Council called

- Putin cancels scheduled meeting to meet with Defence Minister and Chief of Staff

- VP Pence flight diverted - heading back to White House

- COBRA meeting called

 

Something is going down.

[Loki]

I wonder if it's related to Hong Kong events

[Errol]

In case people haven't been paying attention:

 

- Emergency meeting of the EU Security Council called

- Putin cancels scheduled meeting to meet with Defence Minister and Chief of Staff

- VP Pence flight diverted - heading back to White House

- COBRA meeting called

 

Something is going down.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Thank you SP. Yes I do plan to buy these type of stocks after we get the 'market correction'.

 

But when you say ‘90% of peak’, are you referring to the tobacco stock peak that occurred approx. in Q2-2017? …after all BAT and Imperial Brands are UK listed, whereas Phillip Morris is US. So would you expect all to fall so dramatically?

 

 

I ask because I think this feeds into a general question - occasionally discussed here but not for some time - that as we edge ever nearer, I wonder if expectations have changed as to what form the stock market correction will take in terms of the global markets?

 

For example, I think the majority opinion here has been that the S&P could fall dramatically say between 30-70% drop toward the end of this year. But that European markets may drop less. And the UK FTSE may not fall by much as some consider it fair value already. But what will Asian markets do?    

 

The time to buy Imperial and BATs is from the last few months onward.Im already back in mostly,but anyone who wants them should buy a ladder now and set up more buy ladders on any falls.SP will mean that the cannabis stocks will fall 90% and then big tobacco will buy them out.Equity will be wiped out and big tobacco will get the entry for dirt cheap.I have a very good friend who puts the machines in for BATs.He used to work for Rothmans 3 miles from where i live.BAT is a money making machine.He was over in Pakistan last year putting a machine in where they still make the fags by hand.He is often in Latin America as well,they have a huge business there.People dont really grasp the power these firms have.They can squeeze people out of markets easily.The only company who managed to escape them so far and do well is JUUL in the vaping space.

The toughest thing in following my road map was selling BAT and Imperial,it really did test me to let them go,but it proved a great move.Iv got them back for -54% and -49% of what i sold them at.

The only real worry is they both have too much debt,more so BAT and they need to keep de-leveraging.Part of a balanced long term portfolio look like decent entry points.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

In case people haven't been paying attention:

 

- Emergency meeting of the EU Security Council called

- Putin cancels scheduled meeting to meet with Defence Minister and Chief of Staff

- VP Pence flight diverted - heading back to White House

- COBRA meeting called

 

Something is going down.

Is that what caused the Gold price spike a couple of hours ago i wonder.