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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Endeavour Silver delivered production results and markets are not impressed. Though I believe it has more to do with the company explicitly stating that q2 financial will be less than impressive and that operational issue will still need to be ironed out during q3 - possibly leading to even more capital expenditure. 

If someone believes in a silver bull run this could be a nice entry point, as all the issues usually get forgotten when that happens, even if only for a short while. 

Yamana also came up with q2 production, all pretty much in line with guidance. 

Expecting WDO today after close. 

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sancho panza
27 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Endeavour Silver delivered production results and markets are not impressed. Though I believe it has more to do with the company explicitly stating that q2 financial will be less than impressive and that operational issue will still need to be ironed out during q3 - possibly leading to even more capital expenditure. 

If someone believes in a silver bull run this could be a nice entry point, as all the issues usually get forgotten when that happens, even if only for a short while. 

Yamana also came up with q2 production, all pretty much in line with guidance. 

Expecting WDO today after close. 

At some point something has to give-40 yr  of the GSR

 

XAU up again.....have a list of adds but am tempted to sit and wait for some down days.

image.thumb.png.ef68820a8f31342718f2c391124e1346.png4

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Bobthebuilder

Hi Durhamborn,

Harmony is running like a cat on fire at the moment. Your dad would have got an extra 10% ish by waiting a week. Its a lovely green to see, just getting an itchey sell trigger finger right now.

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and work.

 

Bob.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
7 hours ago, janch said:

I don't have a landline either.  I have free-view TV and a dongle for internet for my PC.  It's much easier if you move house not to have a landline with the hassle of informing BT etc of a move.  I'd be interested to see if landlines do go out of favour especially with younger renters/students etc who move home a lot and use their mobiles for just about everything.  It's cheaper too as SP says which is an added bonus for a cheapskate like me.

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

You dont need a landline. Few people do.

You *do* need a conductor to the roadside box, which goes back to the exchange. 

 

5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

This. I know in some countries they provide such lines really cheaply. It annoys me we still have to pay for fully fledged land lines (though most 'normal' users will have a bundle so don't notice it) just to run FTTC on top.

Don't forget people that businesses will always need fixed lines (internet connectivity, not PSTN), 4/5G may factor in as a backup but only to a leased line with an SLA, OpenReach have a bit base there. I can't see any drop off in demand, especially as ISDN is being dropped in favour of VoIP which means quality bandwidth is a must for businesses of all sizes.

Guys, thanks for the replies/input.
 
( EX-cluding mobile ) Can i really have Internet with no land line ?
 
Let me explain what I'm after...
 
Basically i don't give a sh*t about TV, as i threw my television in the skip over a decade ago!
 
I don't use Internet on mobile, ALL I want is Internet to my PC, as from here i have a land line in the form of ->vonage UK as I've been with them for a few years i get a great deal - ONLY £3.99 p/month 100 call minutes & unlimited for receiving calls, great for biz use.
 
So its all about -> dongle OR conductor to the roadside box ?
 
Can this been done anywhere in UK even if ya live in the sticks?
 
Thanks for any info in advance.
 
 

 

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Durhamborn,

Harmony is running like a cat on fire at the moment. Your dad would have got an extra 10% ish by waiting a week. Its a lovely green to see, just getting an itchey sell trigger finger right now.

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and work.

 

Bob.

personally,we'll be staying on until the final station.

Biggest mistake I've made in the past is selling early.The yellow Stuffs story is yet to really unfold.The last two months ahs transformed our goldies portfolio after one or two early errors in terms of stock picking and not spraying n praying wide enough.

 

one of the hardest things in trading besides cutting your losses is buying a share back after it's gone up from where you previously sold.

Persoanlly,I'm weighing adding some more and averaging up.

 

On another matter,check this out

image.png.c44e7927dadae57d67613664ea42d753.png

image.png.d4aabe65b1c2d12bdf643d2e45ee4507.png

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sancho panza
Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

 

Guys, thanks for the replies/input.
 
( EX-cluding mobile ) Can i really have Internet with no land line ?
 
Let me explain what I'm after...
 
Basically i don't give a sh*t about TV, as i threw my television in the skip over a decade ago!
 
I don't use Internet on mobile, ALL I want is Internet to my PC, as from here i have a land line in the form of ->vonage UK as I've been with them for a few years i get a great deal - ONLY £3.99 p/month 100 call minutes & unlimited for receiving calls, great for biz use.
 
So its all about -> dongle OR conductor to the roadside box ?
 
Can this been done anywhere in UK even if ya live in the sticks?
 
Thanks for any info in advance.
 
 

 

you can buy shove a USB cable off your mobile and intoi the computer.Tethering I think it's called.One of the young uns will nkow.I've done it when our landline is down but not really what to do as Mrs P is a computer whizz.

BUT you need to be sure you mobile connection is good enough for it.Otherwise you'll need a landline.

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Bobthebuilder
38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

personally,we'll be staying on until the final station.

Biggest mistake I've made in the past is selling early.The yellow Stuffs story is yet to really unfold.The last two months ahs transformed our goldies portfolio after one or two early errors in terms of stock picking and not spraying n praying wide enough.

 

one of the hardest things in trading besides cutting your losses is buying a share back after it's gone up from where you previously sold.

Persoanlly,I'm weighing adding some more and averaging up.

Thanks SP. Im going to put the kettle on and play with my train set.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

 

Guys, thanks for the replies/input.
 
( EX-cluding mobile ) Can i really have Internet with no land line ?
 
Let me explain what I'm after...
 
Basically i don't give a sh*t about TV, as i threw my television in the skip over a decade ago!
 
I don't use Internet on mobile, ALL I want is Internet to my PC, as from here i have a land line in the form of ->vonage UK as I've been with them for a few years i get a great deal - ONLY £3.99 p/month 100 call minutes & unlimited for receiving calls, great for biz use.
 
So its all about -> dongle OR conductor to the roadside box ?
 
Can this been done anywhere in UK even if ya live in the sticks?
 
Thanks for any info in advance.

 

My £20 a month unlimited data, minutes and texts Three SIM allows tethering. I just go into the settings on my smartphone and tick the 'Wifi Hotspot'. The smartphone then plays the part of a router and both my laptop and smart TV have wireless, so can connect to it for internet use. I'm out in the sticks and on the Three coverage map I'm not supposed to get a signal but it always works fine.

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9 hours ago, janch said:

 

I think I've missed the boat on both Imperial and BAT though unless they both go down a bit........

Really?

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3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Durhamborn,

Harmony is running like a cat on fire at the moment. Your dad would have got an extra 10% ish by waiting a week. Its a lovely green to see, just getting an itchey sell trigger finger right now.

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and work.

 

Bob.

Trust me he wont be bothered.I sold quite a few as well,but i had a very large holding,far too large to be honest.Very happy to be up so much on them and also very happy to of booked some profits.I totally understand people running the sector for the longer term,but i fully intended to use profits from the miners to ladder into stocks i want for the next cycle and thats what iv been doing.To put it into context im down on several stocks iv been buying into,but Harmony has made up for all of them with money to spare.The irony is it and Endeavour Silver were two of my top rubber band stocks and Endeavour is stuttering with silver where it is,but Harmony is up 70%.I do have a road map that says Harmony 20 bags in a bull and Endeavour 50 bags.The other side is both could go bust,be nationalised etc.Hence why a spread is needed.Sibanye is up over 100% now and im expecting Platinum to run soon so they could really run.

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Wesdome, oh my Lord. 

22.5k oz produced, head grade at Eagle River 23.4g. Sick, sick numbers. 

Why do I even bother owning anything else? 

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The daft Fed is being allowed wall street and Trumpy to dictae its policy.

Daft idea.

Theyll have to do a token cut.

However, theyll prob  step up reducing its assets.

Most ofthe QE junk its reduced by ~3-5% a year without doing anything.

They need to step up a bit.

The 'oh trade issues' is total BS. Its obvious that jobs are coming back from China at a rapid clip.

If China collapses and burns and goes back to eaten grass then US will just sell fwer ipads - but most Chinese had movedto chinese mart phones anyhow.

I doubt china will end that way. Most likely outcome is chinese wages go up, more chinese retire, so put upwardpressure on returns and chinese start consuming to turing around the last 25 years of export deflations.

 

 

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@billfunk regarding hzm and nickel interesting to hear.  Seems nickel is quite popular with demand in amongst other things EV batteries.

I may have a small punt too but also may sit out.  I see that it's got a market cap of 30 million.  Lots of optimistic news on potential work.  Do you hold a position already?   Looks like other nickel companies have been fairing better recently but do like the logic.... Just wonder how serious the company is or whether more of a total gamble on the share price and investor sentiment and not underlying fundaments like say a slightly bigger operation.

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For me i own these and this is how much they are currently up

Wesdome +37%

Harmony +44%

Barrick +38%

Eldorado +51% (never thought this would be green again only a small little bet on this one)

Sold Sibanye a while back +85% roughly but it continued to rise 

Yamana -1.5%

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6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

For me i own these and this is how much they are currently up

Wesdome +37%

Harmony +44%

Barrick +38%

Eldorado +51% (never thought this would be green again only a small little bet on this one)

Sold Sibanye a while back +85% roughly but it continued to rise 

Congrats on your gains.

After my initial losses on Tahoe, Coeur and the like, I went all in WDO @2.75 and broke even @3.4. The plan was to stay that way until the bust, but then the gambler in me took over and I started losing money on haphazard trades. Today WDO is +67% since then (and will be more after open) while my portfolio is down 6%. That hurts big time. Listening to right people, adding my own research that turned out to be correct and still losing money, fuck my life.

Gold at $2000/oz cannot come soon enough ;)

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I’m currently +158% on Wesdome and happy to hold. If only I hadn’t lost a dump load of that on other crap trades. Although I’ve sure learnt a lot more from those than Wesdome.

First lessson : don’t make other crap trades

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41 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

For me i own these and this is how much they are currently up

Wesdome +37%

Harmony +44%

Barrick +38%

Eldorado +51% (never thought this would be green again only a small little bet on this one)

Sold Sibanye a while back +85% roughly but it continued to rise 

Yamana -1.5%

Yes that old dog Eldorado making us money.More to come as well.Greece just elected a government that will permit their Greek mines at last i expect.

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2 hours ago, Dogtania said:

@billfunk regarding hzm and nickel interesting to hear.  Seems nickel is quite popular with demand in amongst other things EV batteries.

I may have a small punt too but also may sit out.  I see that it's got a market cap of 30 million.  Lots of optimistic news on potential work.  Do you hold a position already?   Looks like other nickel companies have been fairing better recently but do like the logic.... Just wonder how serious the company is or whether more of a total gamble on the share price and investor sentiment and not underlying fundaments like say a slightly bigger operation.

My style is to go for smaller companies and multi-bag. I like the set-up on HZM currently. There are probably "safer" ways to gain nickel exposure but I don't generally invest in big companies. HZM own two Tier 1 nickel assets with supposedly the highest grade, lowest cost nickel and apparently there is news coming (isn't there always).

As I say I play low stakes and high odds. If it were the other way I might stick it in BHP. Over the next few years I would think you are unlikely to lose much on them, given this stage of the cycle and the historic divergence of resources to stocks.

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New Gold production report is in. I'm fasting and my brain too hazy to digest it properly at the moment, but from the looks of it it seems they had a solid and rather uneventful quarter with production meeting their guidance, although grades at Rainy River are comming in quite low. I assume markets should like it, then again, New Gold spiked recently so maybe it's already priced in.

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6 hours ago, spygirl said:

The 'oh trade issues' is total BS. Its obvious that jobs are coming back from China at a rapid clip.

If China collapses and burns and goes back to eaten grass then US will just sell fwer ipads - but most Chinese had movedto chinese mart phones anyhow.

I doubt china will end that way. Most likely outcome is chinese wages go up, more chinese retire, so put upwardpressure on returns and chinese start consuming to turing around the last 25 years of export deflations.

???

‘Reshoring’ Report Finds Factory Work Not Returning to U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reshoring-report-finds-factory-work-not-returning-to-u-s-11562795251

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10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

???

‘Reshoring’ Report Finds Factory Work Not Returning to U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reshoring-report-finds-factory-work-not-returning-to-u-s-11562795251

Its bullshit.

Why, if you are worried about tariffs, would you move to another country outside of US?

Theres some stuff shifted to other Asian countries but their manufacturing capacity is tiny.

There  is loads of stuff coming back and other stuff staying the US.

Many reasons.

One, China is nto cheap.

Two, the benefits, bar very mass cheap stuff, are pretty hard to find.

Three, US is just goign that way now.

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its bullshit.

Why, if you are worried about tariffs, would you move to another country outside of US?

Theres some stuff shifted to other Asian countries but their manufacturing capacity is tiny.

There  is loads of stuff coming back and other stuff staying the US.

Many reasons.

One, China is nto cheap.

Two, the benefits, bar very mass cheap stuff, are pretty hard to find.

Three, US is just goign that way now.

 

 

 

We have a lot of American work that used to be done in China for the US now done here for the US to avoid tariffs,also here to China instead of US.A lot of factory work is and will come back because like you say China isnt cheap now,and its quality is still pretty poor.China will need to start consuming and spending and the deflation tap has already been turned off.Short sharp deflation then off to the inflation races.We are making TVs in my home town and washers down the road again.Close to market will be key going forward due to transport costs.

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16 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

 

Guys, thanks for the replies/input.
 
( EX-cluding mobile ) Can i really have Internet with no land line ?
 
Let me explain what I'm after...
 
Basically i don't give a sh*t about TV, as i threw my television in the skip over a decade ago!
 
I don't use Internet on mobile, ALL I want is Internet to my PC, as from here i have a land line in the form of ->vonage UK as I've been with them for a few years i get a great deal - ONLY £3.99 p/month 100 call minutes & unlimited for receiving calls, great for biz use.
 
So its all about -> dongle OR conductor to the roadside box ?
 
Can this been done anywhere in UK even if ya live in the sticks?
 
Thanks for any info in advance.
 
 

 

If I were doing it in my house I'd want a 4G/5G router with an external antenna.

Depending on the reception where your PC is you could get away with a dongle in the back and off you go.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes that old dog Eldorado making us money.More to come as well.Greece just elected a government that will permit their Greek mines at last i expect.

INDEED! Just loged into HL & yeah my Eldorado holding up 30%! (Portfolio only down now 2.0%)

I have a gut feeling about our other DOG ... New Gold ...it done a double-bottom @ around 88cents really should buy more even if i only put a monkey in, otherwise i'll ONLY be moaning when it does finally ROCKET!:o

 

23 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

If I were doing it in my house I'd want a 4G/5G router with an external antenna.

Depending on the reception where your PC is you could get away with a dongle in the back and off you go.

Thanks,  however my vonage line (internet phone-line) works from an ethernet cable from the vonage box, could this still be achievable?

 

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