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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think in life a lot of people get behind the curve early and simply never get ahead.

These are very good points.  I know lots of people in that kind of age and wage range who seem to spend every penny they earn and more.   

I guess a part of it is an expectation at the start that wages will continue rising as people progress with the career, and eventually there will be a surplus.  Rarely happens as I also know a few who went to London for longer hours and shit commute and managed to pretty much double their wages.  Just means that their holidays are now to some further away destinations, their bets are higher in a casino and they buy bigger rounds.  Still skint at the end of every month.  

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.......want for new all the time. 

I have a ton of good quality household stuff to get rid of, know of a youngster setting up home, but no, wants all new.  Would have thought I'd won the lottery back in the day.

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40 minutes ago, Harley said:

I have a ton of good quality household stuff to get rid of, know of a youngster setting up home, but no, wants all new.  Would have thought I'd won the lottery back in the day. 

https://www.dfs.co.uk/content/finance

You can borrow for 4 years for 0% interest....  WTF???!!!

That's probably going to come back to bite them when interest rates go through the roof.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
1 hour ago, Harley said:

@Sideysid

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

@Cosmic Apple

@Anyone else!

Thought about a PM but believe best to fix things in kind so apologies for being a prat!

PS:  Wish I had done this rather than extend my fixed line (and monthly cost) to fibre.

 
NO need to apologise ...well not to me anyway as I have THICK-SKIN!xD
 
Ya have to if you saw where i go for my REDUCTIONS...its like a freaking WAR-ZONE I kid you not! I'll disclose the town once i move hopefully by the autumn...
 
Harley I like ya input in this thread... anyways it shows you the calibre of person you are for the apology - just like the majority on here kind-hearted with no bitching & squabbling, that's what makes this thread so GREAT!
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So what do we think the roadmap is now for the miners? My holdings are in GDX/GDXJ with a small amount in Sibanye and Harmony all done very nicely.

A pullback before back off to the races as alluded to earlier? I see a few of you guys are selling/taking profits up... I don't want to to that I have too much cash!

 

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5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

It is spot on that about no understanding of money DB, 33K is a damn good wage up north, how they could be skint is nuts when living at home

Young, projecting the current into the future.

What could go wrong?

A branch of my family splintered off ~100 years ago and became miners.

By the late 70s/early80s - some, only some, most had been laid off during the Labour gov in 70s - the ones still down the pit were well into the top 10% of earners. Combination of unions pay deals overtime, introduction of some plant that counted as modern i.e. not a pony with a trailer.

And  they were living with their mam n dad in an NCB house. In ~81ish, I had one cousin who was pulling in the equivalent to ~80k, living at home, paying his mam about ~50/m rent. If he'd lived cheaply - not frugally, just cheaply, from age 16 (when he started, 78ish) to say 25, and invested the money hed have been set for life.

Spent it all. Cars, divorces.

Unemployed by 1988/late 20s.

 

 

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Don Coglione
8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Young, projecting the current into the future.

What could go wrong?

A branch of my family splintered off ~100 years ago and became miners.

By the late 70s/early80s - some, only some, most had been laid off during the Labour gov in 70s - the ones still down the pit were well into the top 10% of earners. Combination of unions pay deals overtime, introduction of some plant that counted as modern i.e. not a pony with a trailer.

And  they were living with their mam n dad in an NCB house. In ~81ish, I had one cousin who was pulling in the equivalent to ~80k, living at home, paying his mam about ~50/m rent. If he'd lived cheaply - not frugally, just cheaply, from age 16 (when he started, 78ish) to say 25, and invested the money hed have been set for life.

Spent it all. Cars, divorces.

Unemployed by 1988/late 20s.

Surely he could have picked up the phone to the rest of the clan and joined Special Forces to start shooting muzzers an' shit?

 

 

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Castlevania
30 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I know it’s nuts bet u don’t get a discount for cash

If you turned up wanting to pay cash I reckon the staff wouldn’t know what to do.

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Castlevania
15 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

So what do we think the roadmap is now for the miners? My holdings are in GDX/GDXJ with a small amount in Sibanye and Harmony all done very nicely.

A pullback before back off to the races as alluded to earlier? I see a few of you guys are selling/taking profits up... I don't want to to that I have too much cash!

 

Short term I think it comes down to what happens with the Fed meeting at the end of the month. My guess is cut by 50bps and it will be more gains. 25bps trade broadly sideways depending on the minutes. No cut and a big pullback. 

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4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If you turned up wanting to pay cash I reckon the staff wouldn’t know what to do.

As mentioned in another thread, I tried to pay £800 cash for car service at a dealership a couple months back. Complete panic stations.

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19 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

So what do we think the roadmap is now for the miners? My holdings are in GDX/GDXJ with a small amount in Sibanye and Harmony all done very nicely.

A pullback before back off to the races as alluded to earlier? I see a few of you guys are selling/taking profits up... I don't want to to that I have too much cash!

 

I want to see gold over 1500, silver north of 20 and Wesdome in double digits before I start considering what next.

In the meantime I might take profits on particular stocks that overachieve, but only to re-distribute it among others.

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15 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm still too far down on CNA and VOD to be up overall, but it's nice to see GDX and GDXJ clawing the gains back!

Hopefully the time will come...

Just to add to the sentiments here, great thread, long may it continue, and cheers DB!

I'm in this position too and can add RMG to the list!  It's all part of the learning curve and I'm glad I'm not the only novice on here.  I doubt I would ever have started without this thread so many thanks to DB for the thread and Spunko for the site.

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37 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Short term I think it comes down to what happens with the Fed meeting at the end of the month. My guess is cut by 50bps and it will be more gains. 25bps trade broadly sideways depending on the minutes. No cut and a big pullback. 

Frankly I'd be fine with any of them! A big pullback would allow me to put some more in which would be ideal at this point.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
1 hour ago, kibuc said:

As mentioned in another thread, I tried to pay £800 cash for car service at a dealership a couple months back. Complete panic stations.

Thats insane, what car do ya have ...rolls royce?

I've just done my Honda JAZZ service, renewed the spark-plugs (8) / oil + filter  (quality replacements - sent to me door total £42)

OR i'm i missing something...& this what dealships charge ? ?

Well what do i know, maybe i'm out of the times... as i drove the same MK1 Golf C for 21 years until a year or so ago, serviced it myself  (its garaged now appreciating in value every year its now my: GOLF ETF xD)

EDIT: Oh ...SORRY for being OFF TOPIC again! :P:Old:

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1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Thats insane, what car do ya have ...rolls royce?

I've just done my Honda JAZZ service, renewed the spark-plugs (8) / oil + filter  (quality replacements - sent to me door total £42)

OR i'm i missing something...& this what dealships charge ? ?

Well what do i know, maybe i'm out of the times... as i drove the same MK1 Golf C for 21 years until a year or so ago, serviced it myself  (its garaged now appreciating in value every year its now my: GOLF EFT xD)

11yo Hyundai i30. Bought it late 2018 and wanted to give it a one-over. Probably won't have another one in, like, ever.

Should have gone to the local garage but my missus insisted on having it looked at by a "proper" mechanic at least once.

Anyway, £2k purchase price with 90k on the clock, £800 at the dealership for new discs, suspension elements and whatnot, £400 for fixing the AC, possibly £250 for new tyres next year and, given our annual mileage of under 2k, it all should last long enough to be passed over to our daughter in 10 years from now.

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20 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Thats insane, what car do ya have ...rolls royce?

I've just done my Honda JAZZ service, renewed the spark-plugs (8) / oil + filter  (quality replacements - sent to me door total £42)

OR i'm i missing something...& this what dealships charge ? ?

Well what do i know, maybe i'm out of the times... as i drove the same MK1 Golf C for 21 years until a year or so ago, serviced it myself  (its garaged now appreciating in value every year its now my: GOLF ETF xD)

EDIT: Oh ...SORRY for being OFF TOPIC again! :P:Old:

I'm not going to ask where you are fitting those extra 4 spark plugs.... Unless the Jazz has a V8 in the back of course.... 

 

Funnily enough a 'friend' was asking me to look at his 2010 i10 after he was quoted ~£800 for some work, brakes and whatnot. I made excuses as he wanted to spend around ~£150... which was doable if I wanted to do a days work for nowt.

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Funny hearing people today complaining about public sector pay increasing above inflation.

When you tell them it isn’t above inflation, only what the public sector workers tell you inflation is (all the while knowing roughly what it really is), they don’t really understand it but you can see they feel something’s wrong!

As someone said earlier, if people are financially illiterate then you pretty much have them where you want them as a government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-49041295

 

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NHS practically endorsing vaping. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/09/vape-shops-open-nhs-hospital-sites-bid-stub-smoking/

biggest mistake since alcopops but it fits with keeping the population in line theme I suppose

People don’t realise how deadly nicotine is so we’ll see many kids getting into it for the flavours thinking nothings wrong with it. 

Give it 10 years and we’ll see the effects once again on the NHS   

Typical short term thinking so as not to offend the populace  

Still, great for our tobacco shares right?! 👍🏻

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leonardratso
46 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Thats insane, what car do ya have ...rolls royce?

I've just done my Honda JAZZ service, renewed the spark-plugs (8) / oil + filter  (quality replacements - sent to me door total £42)

OR i'm i missing something...& this what dealships charge ? ?

Well what do i know, maybe i'm out of the times... as i drove the same MK1 Golf C for 21 years until a year or so ago, serviced it myself  (its garaged now appreciating in value every year its now my: GOLF ETF xD)

EDIT: Oh ...SORRY for being OFF TOPIC again! :P:Old:

V8 jazz? thats not stock.

 

edit:ah, sorry i see CA already noticed. Actually id like to try a V8 jazz. Must be deadly.

 

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, kibuc said:

I want to see gold over 1500, silver north of 20 and Wesdome in double digits before I start considering what next.

In the meantime I might take profits on particular stocks that overachieve, but only to re-distribute it among others.

The only goldies I'm selling this side of the June 08 moment is NGD to be honest.After June 08 moment will be hopfuly buying them all back cheaper for the very long term.Everything elese ticking along nicely.Along with many others,didn't expect the market to race lik it has meaning our allotment plan has had to be rejigged givne I don't like chasing hot money markets.

Took advantage of the price being £2 over the 2015 £6 low and bought some Fres today.Reality is that it looks like I'm going to be well short of our intended 20% portfolio value.Currently at around 12%.

 

On the plus side,we now know thsi bull market is real and that were' likely at the end of the beginning rather than the bgeginning of the end.very few big Wall St banks coming in yet-although I suspect the recent price action indiates that has changed.Some decent size shares still look reasonable value eg  KGC/IAM and Yamana,the smallies are yet to run.Things like Rio2/Superior are yet to see any real money,so may add more of the smaller GDXJ/explorecos/producers insted of chasing Alamos and HMY at current prices.

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Short term I think it comes down to what happens with the Fed meeting at the end of the month. My guess is cut by 50bps and it will be more gains. 25bps trade broadly sideways depending on the minutes. No cut and a big pullback. 

Agreed CV.Fed is key here.Whatever they do,my read is that we're entering weaker dollar territory which is bullish.If they cut,then it's really game on,if they don't and we get a gold pull back,then I'll be plugging our 8% in rapid.

12 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

I think I understand the logic behind that (marginals switch from loss-making to profit, I guess), I just don't understand how the drop in Fresnillo's production is not being offset by the rising PM prices.  Anyway, I'll know for next time )

Bigger players are genereally less leveraged.Leveraged plays move more quickly as rising asset prices ease the financial constraints they face in terms of  arranging lines of credit etc.Aslo would likely reduce interest and also give option of rights issue/warrants.

55 minutes ago, janch said:

I'm in this position too and can add RMG to the list!  It's all part of the learning curve and I'm glad I'm not the only novice on here.  I doubt I would ever have started without this thread so many thanks to DB for the thread and Spunko for the site.

I've been in this game nearly 26 years since my grandad first got me buying Barclays shares with money I'd earned as a security guard).I've seena few bubbles and seen some incredible shares do nothing for years then explode with virtually similar revenue/net income figures.That's markets.I'm sat on plenty CNA/Big Oil.Just about to start buying some bombed out smaller US oil/gas companies that look very cheap.

Been sifting through OIH/FCG/PSCE ETF's.

 

DYOR natch

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45 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Frankly I'd be fine with any of them! A big pullback would allow me to put some more in which would be ideal at this point.

With you.Sounds strange but one thing I don't want is more exponential ramp up.Well until I've reached full allotment

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