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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Talking Monkey
5 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I think the problem is no one knows where the market is going short term. I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the price of Gold and by definition the leveraged miners, with the minnows taking the brunt of the hit. That may not happen though, especially with the unpredictability of the world at the moment, gold may keep going on up. But can I be bothered to torture myself in making blind calls on gains I've made when they are not life changing amounts? (Which sadly they are not!)

I'd love to able to sell say Franco Nevada at the price now which is double where I bought at 4-5 years ago, and buy them back at 40% discount! If I had £100K worth of the stock I definitely would sell some of it. But with £5K's worth is it worth it? Especially as I think the price of these stocks will be much higher once we get through a credit deflation/reflation cycle.

Timing markets can certainly be profitable, but;
Timing markets can add significantly to risk profile.

PS. If the price of FNV was to drop by 40%, I'll double my holding! I don't think for one minute it will though!

Would any Fed cuts cause the PMs to go higher, and so the miners, I thought the large pullback would happen as the bear market overall got underway

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NogintheNog
35 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Would any Fed cuts cause the PMs to go higher, and so the miners, I thought the large pullback would happen as the bear market overall got underway

I think a 50 point cut is already priced in on Gold as the Fed has clearly communicated said cut. So no real change to my mind if that happens.

However, if they don't cut, and China/US sort out trade issues, expect a rapid decline in the price of Gold back to $1250-1300 and a bigger decline on the miners/streamers. The rest of the market will rise especially some of the FANGS.

What's gonna happen......

I've got no idea:/

I think we are still a quite a way from this;

Igiphy.gif

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Talking Monkey
16 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I think a 50 point cut is already priced in on Gold as the Fed has clearly communicated said cut. So no real change to my mind if that happens.

However, if they don't cut, and China/US sort out trade issues, expect a rapid decline in the price of Gold back to $1250-1300 and a bigger decline on the miners/streamers. The rest of the market will rise especially some of the FANGS.

What's gonna happen......

I've got no idea:/

giphy.gif

 

next couple of weeks will be interesting though if they don't cut I would have thought the market would absolutely tank

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54 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I think the problem is no one knows where the market is going short term. I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the price of Gold and by definition the leveraged miners, with the minnows taking the brunt of the hit. That may not happen though, especially with the unpredictability of the world at the moment, gold may keep going on up. But can I be bothered to torture myself in making blind calls on gains I've made when they are not life changing amounts? (Which sadly they are not!)

I'd love to able to sell say Franco Nevada at the price now which is double where I bought at 4-5 years ago, and buy them back at 40% discount! If I had £100K worth of the stock I definitely would sell some of it. But with £5K's worth is it worth it? Especially as I think the price of these stocks will be much higher once we get through a credit deflation/reflation cycle.

Timing markets can certainly be profitable, but;
Timing markets can add significantly to risk profile.

PS. If the price of FNV was to drop by 40%, I'll double my holding! I don't think for one minute it will though!

I’m not selling out of PM’s as this is just the beginning. But I too haven’t got the likes of 100k or so invested either. We’ve got much further to go for me to pull out my holdings before we start seeing ‘cash for gold’ adverts on TV and gold vending machines making a return.

Yes we may certainly have a pullback and if so I’ll be putting more in. The way I’m playing it, is I’m re-investing profits elsewhere in the sector. For example I’m taking all profits out of my Hochschild and putting into Fresnillo who have taken hit the last few days through less than expected results with investing in new infrastructure etc. 

I think we are much closer than people think. Recession indicators are filtering into everyday life. I’m on holiday in Mallorca at the moment in what would be a very busy area at this time of year. Hotel is not even half full, and this is 4* with 4.5 star reviews on trip advisor etc. In town in the evening even seems quieter than years gone past.

Fed can cut rates 0.5%, but that’s no longer going to be effective as it once was IMO. More QE will see the last hurrah certainly in the FAANGs, but I think the market can now smell it in the water and the smart money is going elsewhere. I’m pencilling in October to see where the land lies from there.

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19 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

I’m not selling out of PM’s as this is just the beginning. But I too haven’t got the likes of 100k or so invested either. We’ve got much further to go for me to pull out my holdings before we start seeing ‘cash for gold’ adverts on TV and gold vending machines making a return.

Yes we may certainly have a pullback and if so I’ll be putting more in. The way I’m playing it, is I’m re-investing profits elsewhere in the sector. For example I’m taking all profits out of my Hochschild and putting into Fresnillo who have taken hit the last few days through less than expected results with investing in new infrastructure etc. 

I think we are much closer than people think. Recession indicators are filtering into everyday life. I’m on holiday in Mallorca at the moment in what would be a very busy area at this time of year. Hotel is not even half full, and this is 4* with 4.5 star reviews on trip advisor etc. In town in the evening even seems quieter than years gone past.

Fed can cut rates 0.5%, but that’s no longer going to be effective as it once was IMO. More QE will see the last hurrah certainly in the FAANGs, but I think the market can now smell it in the water and the smart money is going elsewhere. I’m pencilling in October to see where the land lies from there.

Imperial has bounced 15% from its lows.The market talked the sector down so they could get it cheap,like they always do.They put a mask on and robbed the likes of those who own Woodford Equity who paid £30+ for their shares and sold below £20.

I havent had much time to run any of my macro data for a about 8 months,mainly as my ladders are already in place,plus all my work was on the PM sector.However iv done a little bit last night,and i think the UK might get an inflation jump very soon.The leads and lags on my sterling chart are flashing red for the window when the falls feed into prices.Cross market work i use on this one says things have now converged.Its highly likely we are about to see inflation move higher while a debt deflation builds.Interest rates might go up soon in the UK.Brexit is taking peoples eyes off the ball.If the BOE did cut on a no deal,it wouldnt last long.

Inflation and/or rate increases are going to  really hit home moving into autumn.I expect telcos and retailers to increase prices and get away with it,big ticket items like cars will have the rug pulled.The window is going to close soon for people to roll over debt,and i expect finance for new projects will be hard to come by,meaning incumbents will be able to crank up prices.The reflation is underway,and its running alongside the debt deflation,people just havent noticed yet.

Lets see if inflation starts to crank up as we move into autumn as my charts are saying.

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Clueless Imbecile

I just thought...

If we get stock market crash (possibly global), would that mean that companies that currently have a large pension liability would find it even harder to fund it? I've been looking at the juicy dividend yields quoted for some UK shares today but it just occurred to me that maybe some of those companies could really struggle due to this, for example if they suddenly had to divert a lot of money to prop up their pension fund (perhaps leading to a significant cut in the dividend).

Another thought I've been wrestling with is: should I keep a chunk of cash in order to invest in shares if we do get a crash (e.g. buy in cheaper than todays price), or would that cash be undermined by inflation in the meantime? I don't really feel I've got enough knowledge to understand the pros & cons of keeping a chunk of my investment pot in cash (other than that I know that in the long run my cash savings are getting withered in real terms by inflation).

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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Talking Monkey
2 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I just thought...

If we get stock market crash (possibly global), would that mean that companies that currently have a large pension liability would find it even harder to fund it? I've been looking at the juicy dividend yields quoted for some UK shares today but it just occurred to me that maybe some of those companies could really struggle due to this, for example if they suddenly had to divert a lot of money to prop up their pension fund (perhaps leading to a significant cut in the dividend).

Another thought I've been wrestling with is: should I keep a chunk of cash in order to invest in shares if we do get a crash (e.g. buy in cheaper than todays price), or would that cash be undermined by inflation in the meantime? I don't really feel I've got enough knowledge to understand the pros & cons of keeping a chunk of my investment pot in cash (other than that I know that in the long run my cash savings are getting withered in real terms by inflation).

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

I thought from reading this thread that a global stock market crash is very likely

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@Clueless Imbecile I think I take after your name🙂 but from my perspective I think it's good to have some powder dry regardless.  From experience averaging in works well at least psychology wise.  Wish I had been able to average in some of the miners obviously works both ways but I personally started averaging recently with a few stocks that hopefully can keep for long term.

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I read up on the Woodford patient capital trust I mentioned a few pages ago.  A bit off topic but just surprised the type of stuff he buys, he had a good reputation but think the stuff he is buying bit out of his norm.  Wouldn't touch now.

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32 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

I read up on the Woodford patient capital trust I mentioned a few pages ago.  A bit off topic but just surprised the type of stuff he buys, he had a good reputation but think the stuff he is buying bit out of his norm.  Wouldn't touch now.

He had a great team at Invesco behind him.The fact he invested so much in the AA when it was obvious to anyone the company had ridiculous debt levels should of been enough.The irony is he had a decent portfolio at first to provide income,as it was supposed to do,but he slowly sold the decent stuff to fund rights issues in basket cases.He sold BAT at £50,but instead of maybe buying Vod,or some other blue chip divi payer he bought the likes of Capita,Saga and funding rights issues at Kier.I kept reading on his site about the macro picture,saying the UK would be strong when China went down.The problem is as usual he ignored the leads and lags on that.If he had kept in the stronger stocks he could of used some of the dividends to buy as the shares fell,but he got in a right old mess,

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3 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I just thought...

If we get stock market crash (possibly global), would that mean that companies that currently have a large pension liability would find it even harder to fund it? I've been looking at the juicy dividend yields quoted for some UK shares today but it just occurred to me that maybe some of those companies could really struggle due to this, for example if they suddenly had to divert a lot of money to prop up their pension fund (perhaps leading to a significant cut in the dividend).

Another thought I've been wrestling with is: should I keep a chunk of cash in order to invest in shares if we do get a crash (e.g. buy in cheaper than todays price), or would that cash be undermined by inflation in the meantime? I don't really feel I've got enough knowledge to understand the pros & cons of keeping a chunk of my investment pot in cash (other than that I know that in the long run my cash savings are getting withered in real terms by inflation).

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Shares might fall 50%,but bond yields might go up 80%-300%.The pension obligations are about to be inflated away.Lots of schemes have introduced maximum 5% uplifts etc so once inflation runs over that the liability is cut.People are going to live as long as the trustees are pricing for,so some big schemes might even see a windfall for the company.

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leonardratso

you ever come across SSRM? kinross looks to be a subsiduary, i havent looked deeply at it yet, but it seems to have been around since 1946, thats some run.

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Any thoughts on INRG?

Clean energy ETF offered by BlackRock. Good performance over the last year with a lot of exposure to solar energy companies.

VanEck also have SMOG but it's not listed on the LSE as far as I can see.

There are also UKW - exposure to UK Wind industry, and NESF, for UK solar. They've both been good performers over the last year.

I'd like a pure clean energy play going forward, especially if we see a major crash, in which case I feel some kind of "green new deal" / infrastructure spending has massive potential to happen.

I know with CNA and other "reflation" stocks there is some energy exposure, but does low carbon etc factor into this thinking at all?

Does anyone have any holdings in this sector?

If anyone is interested in discussing clean energy investing I may start a new thread (unless there already is one that I've missed 🙄)

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@Hardhat

got this interesting mail on renewables from Freetrade (well worth signing up to their newsletter and if interested downloading the app for trading with no fees)  

TRIG is not an etf but a potential consideration all the same, I’ve seen others mention it on here  so maybe search back if interested, I’m looking at adding some this week  

sorry for the long post but can’t see it online to link to -

When it comes to our potential impending doom, there can be two investing approaches. 

  1. How can I invest in the beneficiaries of chaos? japanese_ogre
  2. How can I invest in solutions? 😇

The first approach might include companies like water traders or frackers.

The second obviously includes companies trying to power the world with less apocalyptic fuels like solar, tidal energy or wind. 

One of the UK's biggest investable options is The Renewables Infrastructure Group - or TRIG for short. 

TRIGger Happy laughing

TRIG was launched in 2013 to bring an accessible way for UK investors to invest in renewable energy.

It isn't an energy company itself, it's actually something called an alternative investment fund, a type of investment trust. These funds invest in more unusual assets like hedge funds, art and antiques, wine & whisky or in this case wind and solar energy farms. sunny

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Founded in 2013, TRIG buys energy assets throughout Europe; it's currently invested in 34 wind farms, 28 solar parks and one battery storage facility (crying sadly, by itself).

TRIG's network of producers sell on energy to wholesale energy providers: legacy players like British Gas or E.ON.

The energy goes to consumers on renewable tariffs as well as sourcing the general supply. While providers have to buy a certain amount of renewables to supply customers on green deals, the amount bought for the general supply partly depends on the price renewable suppliers can deliver vs other sources, as well as the overall demand for energy. 

They also sell on fixed contracts which are more controllable. And they have more opportunity with providers like Bulb and Octopus who build their proposition around green energy only. 

The price of air and sunshine money_with_wings

It's kind of magical to generate energy from air currents and sunlight. Then again, it's also pretty crazy to make it from ancient plants and animals.

In either case, on the cost front, wind and solar are increasingly winning. 

In the past, renewables were heavily supported by subsidies but the UK government somewhat curtailed these in 2016, which led TRIG to begin diversifying abroad.

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The Epine wind farm in France, one of TRIG's assets

However, improvements in generator and battery tech mean that renewables are now economically viable without support. In fact, wind and solar electricity are now cheaper than coal. Only natural gas hovers around a similar cost level and the expectation is that new tech will continue to drive down the cost of renewables.

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It’s still worth noting that even though renewables are economically viable without subsidies, favourable policies certainly help, especially since the initial capital costs are high. And politics can change all the time.  

Of the two renewables at TRIG, onshore wind is generally slightly cheaper compared to solar. Turbines are more efficient and productive than panels. But solar can be more reliable (the sun always rises).

Where fossil fuels currently win is storability: you can keep a gas canister around for a while before burning it. You can't keep sunshine until you need it and it's harder to store generated electricity. Better batteries are the big challenge here - ask Elon Musk - so it's unsurprising that TRIG have invested in a battery project too.

Utilities are famously good at delivering cash flow to investors and indeed TRIG has tended to pay a healthy dividend. But because of the shift to renewables, there's a growth story too. 

Tilting at windmills ♞

TRIG does look like a neat way to get investment exposure to the up-and-coming green energy sector. However, it does carry a few risks too. 

The big energy firms still have a huge amount of control and clout in the market. If they start to pursue renewables with rigour, they could muscle out smaller investment groups, limiting TRIG's growth.

Technological progress can also be a double-edged sword for a capital-intensive company. On the one hand, there's always something better to invest in and potential upgrades to your assets. On the other hand, if the pace of change outstrips the ability to upgrade, you risk being left with ageing assets vs superior competition. The actual assets are relatively illiquid so it’s less easy for managers to sell them and redeploy the money. That said, unlike an open-ended fund, as a trust TRIG doesn’t ever need to sell off assets to redeem shareholders selling their shares. 

TRIG will have to manage its portfolio shrewdly to ensure they stay at the forefront of costs and innovation. 

Finally, as with any closed-ended investment trust, investor enthusiasm can mean the share price races ahead of the net value of the assets it holds. In fact, the price premium on a share of TRIG vs net assets has increased recently. That said, it's always harder to judge the value of non-market assets compared to a pool of stocks.

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Morningstar

Clean and simple

Investing is all about calculating probabilities and navigating ambiguity. Here we have at least some certainty. Climate science is an unambiguous fact. So is the eventual depletion of fossil fuels. 

That doesn't predict the timeline or mean that wind and solar are the definite beneficiaries or even that TRIG is the best prospect in the sector.

Nonetheless, it's one of the UK's few ways to make a simple, direct and liquid investment in active green energy projects. 

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On 20/07/2019 at 12:02, Castlevania said:

Yep. Well said. The most important thing I’ve learnt is to learn from your own mistakes. 

+100

It's amazing how the contrarian mind can convince itself you're on to something, and overlook all the info suggesting otherwise. I think one foot in and one out isn't always a bad strategy, the herd isn't always right of course but not always wrong, especially in these highly manipulated times.

That being said, I still expect as many on here that a deflationary bust is going to catch most off guard late this year/early next.

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Agent ZigZag

Undecided whether to take profits on my miners today and leave my initial outlay in play. Will there be a sell off or is there more energy in the market left ? my overall view is a that there is more to go before the year is out and then take profits. Pure greed on my part. What is the census on the board.

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55 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Undecided whether to take profits on my miners today and leave my initial outlay in play. Will there be a sell off or is there more energy in the market left ? my overall view is a that there is more to go before the year is out and then take profits. Pure greed on my part. What is the census on the board.

I've sold up the miners in my ISA, but only because I have options positions to ride the PM sector higher in the near term. My exposure had grown too large, due to the GDX options, and rather than close some of these out (actually I did sell some to lock in profits), I sold the miners in the ISA instead. The ISA is retirement money, so I don't mind if I miss out on some short term gains. Capital protection is more important to me as I know there will always be other opportunities in the markets.

I'm also managing a chunk of capital I don't earn enough to add to, so I'm particularly careful to minimise losses. Given we're expecting a major crash at some point, and having traded 2 major crashes already, I'm being conservative now to ensure I have lots of cash in the ISA to pick up bargains if/when it happens.

The thesis of this thread is very convincing, and seems to be playing out so far, but I'm being careful not to assume it's definitely going happen as predicted. Even the best get it wrong sometimes.  Where the thesis really helps is it gives me what seems like a better than 50/50 chance of getting direction right in the near-mid term, along with some confidence to play for some specific targets. I can build my options strategy around this, including when to take profits, etc.

If I were just holding stock, I'd sell maybe 1/4 at a time as we approach the predicted target levels.  If I were able to put a good chunk away each month and was thinking purely long term, I may not sell at all, and simply leave new contributions in cash for a month or so until after a downswing, and then add to my positions. 

 

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A common Maxim I think is "leave some for the next man". So taking some profits always good. 

I'm letting things ride conversely but that could be to my loss.  Bit still in the red with some of the silver miners (unlucky timing over last year/ not averaging in) and not a trader.  Won't be the end of world if it all goes wrong either but hoping for something 🙂

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Undecided whether to take profits on my miners today and leave my initial outlay in play. Will there be a sell off or is there more energy in the market left ? my overall view is a that there is more to go before the year is out and then take profits. Pure greed on my part. What is the census on the board.

If you can sell your initial outlay and still have profits to run, then thats the holy grail of investing. It doesnt get any better than that.

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1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Undecided whether to take profits on my miners today and leave my initial outlay in play. Will there be a sell off or is there more energy in the market left ? my overall view is a that there is more to go before the year is out and then take profits. Pure greed on my part. What is the census on the board.

Im all in greed at the minute, wheels are coming off the economic wagon finally and PM's are catching a bid.  When the herd arrives it will be time to take profits but i dont think we are anywhere near that yet.

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Just now, Tdog said:

IAnyone still holding Infrastrata? I'm going for the shit or bust approach, bust seems to be looking more likely!

Yeah, took some out of it at it's highs but I'm just going to ride this mule to the end now.  No point selling.

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sancho panza
On 20/07/2019 at 07:47, Cattle Prod said:

I think your timing is spot on, I will dump all mine when I think the dollar has bottomed too. I know you're a Kaplan reader, and he's been speaking about insider buying. I'm one of them. My own shares sold off recently after a trading update highlighting improved free cash flow! It's a hated sector, I love that, I jumped on it. Sold off at the open, back up by the end of the day. Classic stuff. I expect at least a double by 2020.

Nat gas is good value, I agree. I personally have bias against US shale stocks as the oil ones don't mske sny money. I haven't done DD on Marcellus specific players. If you can find ones thst make money now, they could do well. But remember they have to mske money at US gas prices, not European or Japanese. It's not (yet) a true commodity, because of the transport issue.

Other exposure? Russia or Gazprom maybe. Natural gas storage is still an issue in the UK, but thats been covered here.

To your last question, I dont know. But a guess is that the ETF is not reflecting enough 'pure' gas, a few tanking shale oilies in there will bring down the average.

The key point is that the sector is cheap as you point out, and there are plenty of companies throwing off cash with low valuations.

Absolutely a Kaplan reader.He's really got me researching fresh and interesting lines of thought.As ever with these guys,you take what works for you and then exclude some of the other stuff.He got me to reevaluate the role of the dollar in what's coming,also emphasises some intruging correlations that can be back tested quite easily.

Hence my focus on finding that June 08 signal.

I'm ignoring emerging markets on the whole as the only viable eway to invest in most is via ETF's that have some dodgy looking 10%+ holdings in their banks.

Intrigued on finding natural gas players but from what you say,could be too complkicated/time consuming for me.WIll check Gazprom and see if I cna find some viable trades

As part of our weaker dollar holdings going forwards was sifting big oilies and a couple really caught my eye.Statoil particularly for the currency exposure/Total/ENI(which you've reccomended before)-in addition to UK oilies.certainly interested in looking at Russia

 

image.png.cd7f22cc457a1a340098c9ad55aef085.png

On 20/07/2019 at 08:05, Cattle Prod said:

Just had a peek at Gazprom. It did double in 2007, but unfortunately its already been ripping higher! Dammit, might have missed that. FT has them on a PE of 2.95 but I don't know what kind of PE that is.

FWIW I've been in a JV with them before. Somewhat black and white on subsurface issues (excellent scientists, but very maths oriented), but super professional. Always paid up, in full and on time. Unlike the Chinese, who constantly piss around. I wouldn't be blinded by western biases about investing in Russia. It was pointed out to me (repeatedly :-)) that Gazprom was a reliable supplier to Europe all through the Cold War. Which is true. Gazprom might be an arm of state that they use to threaten their former satellites, but they do not mess about with Europe.

Even at the current price,there apears a lot of upside potentialy

On 20/07/2019 at 09:12, DurhamBorn said:

10x potential,not bothered how risky they are.So the likes of Harmony,Sibanye,the smaller silver miners etc likely il keep around 10% of my portfolio in them.Im already up more than that on having sold a lot.Iv sold some 3 times since 2016 including Endeavour,Harmony,Yamana,Eldorado,Sibanye etc.I still think there is big potential for a big fall back in the miners and if so i would go back up to 20% of my portfolio as the reflation cycle gets underway.

The miners have really lagged the price of the yelow stuff over 20 years.A big pull back would suit me given the way we're getting AUD/GBP etc hihgs in gold itself.Current story is of dollar strength rather than gold weakness.

On 20/07/2019 at 10:20, Talking Monkey said:

The big fallback has been mentioned several times, is that big fallback most likely when the overall stockmarket bear is in full swing as it heads towards >50% down.

Goldies moved inversely to the general market during the moments of crisis in 08

On 20/07/2019 at 11:42, Harley said:

A timely post for any newbies who may be nicely up following DB et al advice.  Are you good traders or good at finding the right internet forums?  Take care out there or you risk being sucked in and spat out.  Nothing wrong with taking profits, especially covering your initial capital, and maybe investing some gains in buying (and reading!) a few books or attending courses.  Apologies if you're all seasoned pros but I've been at this game a long time and still make many dumb mistakes due to stuff like the above.  Bottom line, it requires bl**dy hard work to stay in this game over the longer term.

Absolutely.I lvoe investing and trading but it takes a lot fo time.Every day is a learning day.

 

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