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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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3 hours ago, Dogtania said:

I've heard that to reduce landfill and waste they now give these items away for free 1 hour before closing to any Tesco employee.  Not sure that's the reason but means staff don't have as much incentive or need to mark down if they can blag later.

Must be the latest strategy by the directors instead of a wage rise for the plebs, ..and reduce landfill. Trebles all round then

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19 hours ago, dgul said:

Surely the BBs are already fully in bonds (the youngest are about 55).   We're also at the point where the eldest BBs will start dying off.

But isn't it less relevant now -- the demand for bonds at the moment isn't set by natural forces (retirees, etc), but a safe haven play (or even, a play on people playing the safe haven play*) -- as soon as bonds appear poor value then investors will move out of them?

[* ie, investment bankers have bought bonds knowing that in uncertain times their price will be bid up]

Or even the legal requirements on pension funds to hold gilts, that dictate/influence bond prices?

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20 hours ago, Harley said:

And the FTSE go down less than the others?  The world ETFs have been on a tear but not so much the supposed worldly FTSE.  Would be nice if it turns out squirreling money away in the beaten down FTSE was a smart/lucky move, either for an 

14 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have stopped working extra hours as it is pointless at 1x time, you end up with less per hour and once you are over a certain age there is little benefit in topping a pension up due to the lack of compounding when there are less than 10 years to go.

Your time actually starts to be worth more than the little you get extra plus you also feel knackered after doing 8 hrs.

Don't agree with your second point about pension, unless I have it (the benefits of doing such) completely wrong (not unknown! :-))...granted if close to retirement you are not getting the benefits of compounding, but the extra pension contributions are reducing your tax burden, and so `giving` you extra in your pension pot rather than going directly to the govts pot..any one like to confirm this as CG has me questioning myself now!

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Pretty much what i do.I went back to work last october on about £35k + a pension a year and iv put all of it into my SIPP (and all of that went into PM stocks) because i made the allowance nearly on my business (that i have now closed down).Going forward i would put everything over £12.5k in my SIPP,and il draw down from 55 at £12.5k a year as well.I plan to have full state pension + £2500 a year from another pension,so no income tax and then everything else from within an ISA.I can live very well on £12.5k a year and thats all i want.I should get laid off soon as the credit crunch bites,unless the fall in sterling keeps the lag for another year.

I manage to avoid most VAT as well by buying almost everything 2nd hand,the only one that really hits me is council tax,i hate paying it,but my partner has a council final salary pension coming so i guess i shouldnt complain seeing as that where most of it goes.

So just to clarify, do you plan to have exausted/completed the dd on you SIPP by the time you reach state pension age, and thus able to keep your taxable income (state pension, db pension) below you personal allowance of £12.5k?

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Chewing Grass
11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fucking hillarious, Nieu Liebor was always banging on about how good it was to take people out of paying tax (especially low earners) exc VAT. Chickens flocking home to roost, luvvly jubbly.

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@DurhamBorn I didn't realise the sort of amounts people were talking about on this thread.  What would your advice be to someone with no debt, a decent wage, but also with no chance of investing multiple thousands of pounds into a strategy?

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55 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So just to clarify, do you plan to have exausted/completed the dd on you SIPP by the time you reach state pension age, and thus able to keep your taxable income (state pension, db pension) below you personal allowance of £12.5k?

My SIPP is only a very small part of my portfolio,almost all my wealth is inside ISAs (and a paid for house) and i intend to run my SIPP down to nothing by state pension age yes.At 55 il put into draw-down,take the tax free cash and draw down at £12.5k a year until it runs out.I also have a smallish final salary pension (£250 a month) +£33k tax free cash,but im considering moving that into my SIPP instead as it has a transfer value of £130k.If i do that il drawdown at £12.5k a year then drop to whatever keeps me at the tax allowance.

My ISAs would provide the income top up to the state pension from dividends,but its highly likely i will run my capital down.Im also considering selling my house and getting a council house if i reach 70.I intend to run capital down to perhaps £25k by 80 if im here.Id give to my children in my 70s.The state pension alone would do me fine in my later years plus a bit of capital for any emergencies.

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13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Pretty much what i do.I went back to work last october on about £35k + a pension a year and iv put all of it into my SIPP (and all of that went into PM stocks) because i made the allowance nearly on my business (that i have now closed down).Going forward i would put everything over £12.5k in my SIPP,and il draw down from 55 at £12.5k a year as well.I plan to have full state pension + £2500 a year from another pension,so no income tax and then everything else from within an ISA.I can live very well on £12.5k a year and thats all i want.I should get laid off soon as the credit crunch bites,unless the fall in sterling keeps the lag for another year.

I manage to avoid most VAT as well by buying almost everything 2nd hand,the only one that really hits me is council tax,i hate paying it,but my partner has a council final salary pension coming so i guess i shouldnt complain seeing as that where most of it goes.

A man after my own heart! I'll be doing exactly the same. Only difference is that I need 15k to live comfortably on. I've been noting down every penny I spend for over a year now so got a pretty good idea. Does your £12.5k factor in car replacement and boiler replacement? I've factored in a modest car replacement every 8 years and boiler every 10. I've also allowed £200 per month for travelling as that's my thing when I retire; amazing deals if you can travel in the week.

Agree on council tax. hate it but nothing you can do about it, grrr. I have a log burner and the woods near me are full of logs so heating should be cheap when I can be arsed to go get wood.

I furnished my house from gumtree as you did. Couldn't go spend thousands for something I can get for hundreds. It just takes a bit of time to keep looking until you find what you want. 

 

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12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My SIPP is only a very small part of my portfolio,almost all my wealth is inside ISAs (and a paid for house) and i intend to run my SIPP down to nothing by state pension age yes.At 55 il put into draw-down,take the tax free cash and draw down at £12.5k a year until it runs out.I also have a smallish final salary pension (£250 a month) +£33k tax free cash,but im considering moving that into my SIPP instead as it has a transfer value of £130k.If i do that il drawdown at £12.5k a year then drop to whatever keeps me at the tax allowance.

My ISAs would provide the income top up to the state pension from dividends,but its highly likely i will run my capital down.Im also considering selling my house and getting a council house if i reach 70.I intend to run capital down to perhaps £25k by 80 if im here.Id give to my children in my 70s.The state pension alone would do me fine in my later years plus a bit of capital for any emergencies.

I think that is a pragmatic approach -- my only concern would be whether the state pension would be so generous (relatively) in 20 years time.  Not sure what can be done about it, though.

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40 minutes ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn I didn't realise the sort of amounts people were talking about on this thread.  What would your advice be to someone with no debt, a decent wage, but also with no chance of investing multiple thousands of pounds into a strategy?

First i would learn to live very frugal.Cut down all spending.I still drive a 14 year old car,i buy everything 2nd hand,.Then see how much you have spare each month.Id then start to build a dividend portfolio.If i had £600 a month spare then id be buying a new share every 2 months with £1200 in.In two years you would have 12 stocks.Id stick to around 20 stocks maximum for this,and sometimes top a few up.Stick to  FTSE 350 stocks at first and be a contrarian.Think of the sectors hated but have a future.In 3 years you will find the shares that were hated might not be and new ones will be.I built my wealth with the above strategy.It wants PM miners that got me away,it was buying bus companies at £1 and selling for £5,tobacco companies 15 bagging etc.

Most people make the mistake of wanting everything now,but doing the above,even if you ended up with just £20k and nothing more would likely give you £1000 a year in dividends and likely grow over a cycle.My partner is currently doing the same.When i met her she owed £55k on a £70k house and had zero savings.8 years later she has paid off her house,has £450 a month rental income from it,has a share portfolio of £27k and a dividend income of £1400 a year.She saves around £1000 a month and she will retire at 56 instead of 67 .

Getting to £12k a year dividend income takes a long time and effort for ordinary waged people (im one of them),but even getting a third of the way along gets you a nice £4000 a year you dont have to earn.Minimum wage part time jobs are ten a penny,and if you have that sort of dividend income,it means you can work 16 hours a week instead of 40 if you choose,and instead of retiring,semi retire.

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26 minutes ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn I didn't realise the sort of amounts people were talking about on this thread.  What would your advice be to someone with no debt, a decent wage, but also with no chance of investing multiple thousands of pounds into a strategy?

One has to start somewhere. What age bracket are you in? If there is a will there is a way. Snowballing an army of dollar bills goes a long way, if you have time and effort on your side.

 

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2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

A man after my own heart! I'll be doing exactly the same. Only difference is that I need 15k to live comfortably on. I've been noting down every penny I spend for over a year now so got a pretty good idea. Does your £12.5k factor in car replacement and boiler replacement? I've factored in a modest car replacement every 8 years and boiler every 10. I've also allowed £200 per month for travelling as that's my thing when I retire; amazing deals if you can travel in the week.

Agree on council tax. hate it but nothing you can do about it, grrr. I have a log burner and the woods near me are full of logs so heating should be cheap when I can be arsed to go get wood.

I furnished my house from gumtree as you did. Couldn't go spend thousands for something I can get for hundreds. It just takes a bit of time to keep looking until you find what you want. 

 

Id run capital down for any bigger expenses as i intend to run my capital down anyway.I doubt a car would ever cost me more than £700 a year (buying and fixing).Iv just had new central heating done and did it in a way where it would be a simple boiler swap out when needed,so about a grand.I got all new double glazing as well,did the whole house including doors for about £3600.I need a new kitchen as its been in since 1992,but im holding off as i might do it myself once im laid off from work.I also fully intend getting an allotment in a few years,you can get them here for £5 a year, and great for healthy free food.

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I dont hold any Sirius  but i love the comment below that Ms Shaw said on the Today programme earlier.Concern about the prospects for potash.Its likely to be one of the best performing commods in the next cycle.How you price the bonds and equity in something like Sirius is one thing,but her complete lack of understand of things is incredible.I doubt some of the big mining companies are as stupid as Claire,and Sirius might end up not building the mine,but somebody will.I drove past it yesterday.

 

Claire Shaw from SYZ Asset Management told the Today Programme: "This was going to be the largest mine built in the UK for a generation."

"There’s a decade-long saga on this mine. It’s had to overcome environment opposition," she said, and there has been concern about the prospects for potash". It is set to be the world's largest mine for polyhalite, a potash fertiliser.

 

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13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Pick your town/area and you might find those figures are even worse than 50%.

And this isnt just the North now. Southern towns are rapidly benfitisationing now that the finsec has collapsed.

It really cant go on.

Noones really pulling all the figures together and seeing the bigger picture
 

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/scarborough-house-prices-up-by-0-3-in-may-but-property-sales-down-8-9-on-previous-year-1-9916964

(This will be SBC, so Whitby too).

Lowest rates in history, get a ~20% deposit together (good nice house ~200k, so 40k - yeah i know...) and you can borrow at ~3% fixed for 10 years), so 770/m mortgage, about the same as the rent.

And yet sales, which were already on multi decade floor are sinking by hefty amount.

Why?

Id guess ~60% of couples/buyers under 50 (this is *the* mortgage market 25-50) are getting the majority of their cash in TCs, so benefits, so no mortgage.

Anyone 60+ with a house, big or small, have no-one to sell to, no buyers.

Its that fucking obvious.

Selling a house in a lot of town will be like winning the lottery. Not because of the money paid, because of the rarity.

 

 

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont hold any Sirius  but i love the comment below that Ms Shaw said on the Today programme earlier.Concern about the prospects for potash.Its likely to be one of the best performing commods in the next cycle.How you price the bonds and equity in something like Sirius is one thing,but her complete lack of understand of things is incredible.I doubt some of the big mining companies are as stupid as Claire,and Sirius might end up not building the mine,but somebody will.I drove past it yesterday.

 

Claire Shaw from SYZ Asset Management told the Today Programme: "This was going to be the largest mine built in the UK for a generation."

"There’s a decade-long saga on this mine. It’s had to overcome environment opposition," she said, and there has been concern about the prospects for potash". It is set to be the world's largest mine for polyhalite, a potash fertiliser.

 

She's lying - or at least not up to speed.

The open cast mines in the NE are much much bigger.

But the are not man n pick mines, just a big fucking whole in the ground,

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41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id run capital down for any bigger expenses as i intend to run my capital down anyway.I doubt a car would ever cost me more than £700 a year (buying and fixing).Iv just had new central heating done and did it in a way where it would be a simple boiler swap out when needed,so about a grand.I got all new double glazing as well,did the whole house including doors for about £3600.I need a new kitchen as its been in since 1992,but im holding off as i might do it myself once im laid off from work.I also fully intend getting an allotment in a few years,you can get them here for £5 a year, and great for healthy free food.

Ah, I see. I guess I'd be doing the same thing in effect. I budget around £6k every 8 years for a car, so £62.50 per month. I do brakes, oil changes myself which keeps costs down. Biggest expense really is running a car (if you've got your house paid off). On top of the replacement cost of course is tax, insurance, fuel, maintenance, MOT, tyres... Could live on a lot less every month without a car but it's essential for me.

I think things are quite a lot cheaper up north. I'm in the South East. You'd have no chance of getting a boiler changed for a grand, no matter how simple. Tradesmen down here cost a fortune. So much so that I've learnt to do most things myself now, saves you a fortune over the years. Unfortunately you can't change a boiler yourself.

I've just started growing vegetables, but more for fun. Food is very cheap IMO. I spend a £100 a month on food for myself and I eat well.

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Chewing Grass
38 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Pick your town/area and you might find those figures are even worse than 50%.

And this isnt just the North now. Southern towns are rapidly benfitisationing now that the finsec has collapsed.

It really cant go on.

Noones really pulling all the figures together and seeing the bigger picture
 

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/scarborough-house-prices-up-by-0-3-in-may-but-property-sales-down-8-9-on-previous-year-1-9916964

(This will be SBC, so Whitby too).

Lowest rates in history, get a ~20% deposit together (good nice house ~200k, so 40k - yeah i know...) and you can borrow at ~3% fixed for 10 years), so 770/m mortgage, about the same as the rent.

And yet sales, which were already on multi decade floor are sinking by hefty amount.

Why?

Id guess ~60% of couples/buyers under 50 (this is *the* mortgage market 25-50) are getting the majority of their cash in TCs, so benefits, so no mortgage.

Anyone 60+ with a house, big or small, have no-one to sell to, no buyers.

Its that fucking obvious.

Selling a house in a lot of town will be like winning the lottery. Not because of the money paid, because of the rarity.

 

 

 

 

 

She's lying - or at least not up to speed.

The open cast mines in the NE are much much bigger.

But the are not man n pick mines, just a big fucking whole in the ground,

I think that mine, its location, the 3 tunnels (20 miles long) and the link to a harbour are fantastic cover for the glubberment to construct a mahoosive 21st century WW3 bunker complex for itself.

No problems hiding the spoil or materials used to build it.

Perfect cover.

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2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think that mine, its location, the 3 tunnels (20 miles long) and the link to a harbour are fantastic cover for the glubberment to construct a mahoosive 21st century WW3 bunker complex for itself.

No problems hiding the spoil or materials used to build it.

Perfect cover.

Theyve already got that with Boulby.

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
39 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/scarborough-house-prices-up-by-0-3-in-may-but-property-sales-down-8-9-on-previous-year-1-9916964

(This will be SBC, so Whitby too).

Lowest rates in history, get a ~20% deposit together (good nice house ~200k, so 40k - yeah i know...) and you can borrow at ~3% fixed for 10 years), so 770/m mortgage, about the same as the rent.

And yet sales, which were already on multi decade floor are sinking by hefty amount.

Why?

Id guess ~60% of couples/buyers under 50 (this is *the* mortgage market 25-50) are getting the majority of their cash in TCs, so benefits, so no mortgage.

Anyone 60+ with a house, big or small, have no-one to sell to, no buyers.

Its that fucking obvious.

Selling a house in a lot of town will be like winning the lottery. Not because of the money paid, because of the rarity.

 

 
spy I really don't understand this post, have ya have a few shots of whiskey :D this morning in ya coffee? ...OR is this just Scarborough specific? OR maybe me being a bit THICK :$
 
If those current houses are priced today @ say 200K ...and in several years collapse to £80K there be plenty of buyers! MOST of the buyers will be from this thread! lol!xD
 
BTW, SLA down today ...we may get a chance to snap some up on the cheap!
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-standard-life-aberdeen-h1-062941726.html
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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Pretty much what i do.I went back to work last october on about £35k + a pension a year and iv put all of it into my SIPP (and all of that went into PM stocks) because i made the allowance nearly on my business (that i have now closed down).Going forward i would put everything over £12.5k in my SIPP,and il draw down from 55 at £12.5k a year as well.I plan to have full state pension + £2500 a year from another pension,so no income tax and then everything else from within an ISA.I can live very well on £12.5k a year and thats all i want.I should get laid off soon as the credit crunch bites,unless the fall in sterling keeps the lag for another year.

I manage to avoid most VAT as well by buying almost everything 2nd hand,the only one that really hits me is council tax,i hate paying it,but my partner has a council final salary pension coming so i guess i shouldnt complain seeing as that where most of it goes.

 

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My SIPP is only a very small part of my portfolio,almost all my wealth is inside ISAs (and a paid for house) and i intend to run my SIPP down to nothing by state pension age yes.At 55 il put into draw-down,take the tax free cash and draw down at £12.5k a year until it runs out.I also have a smallish final salary pension (£250 a month) +£33k tax free cash,but im considering moving that into my SIPP instead as it has a transfer value of £130k.If i do that il drawdown at £12.5k a year then drop to whatever keeps me at the tax allowance.

My ISAs would provide the income top up to the state pension from dividends,but its highly likely i will run my capital down.Im also considering selling my house and getting a council house if i reach 70.I intend to run capital down to perhaps £25k by 80 if im here.Id give to my children in my 70s.The state pension alone would do me fine in my later years plus a bit of capital for any emergencies.

 
@DurhamBorn Ya post made me write something right now, however to go into details would take several pages!xD
 
Hands UP I'm in me mid-fifties, and I've paid into a personal pension for 35 years, over the last 6 weeks been trying to get my head around this pension malarkey, complex is an understatement, anyway...finally I get there and decide what i want (similar to your post DB), as my pot has grown to just a little over £100K, the provider allows FREE advice from their financial adviser, long story short...
 
...talking to this FA was a joke, i mean the questions he asked were like YOU had NO idea about managing money,  i mean it was just a waste of time AND...
 
If i took this FA C**T's advice ...he would have taken a piss taking RIP-OFF £3,000 commission, AND I could possibly LOOSE my entire pension pot, WHY...?
 
This FA C**T recommend a scheme from Legal & General Pensions Ltd, so I did my HOME-WORK, and guess WHAT?
 
Check this out folks:
 
Since 21/04/2016 Legal & General Pensions Ltd ...YOU will have NO protection, I even called the FSCS and they confirmed this, even they were shocked!
 
When i emailed the FA C**T about the above...for some odd reason he has NOT replied!  :wanker:
 
Now ya all know why I HATE financial advisers 99.9% are a bunch of f**king pricks! :Old:
 
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55 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
spy I really don't understand this post, have ya have a few shots of whiskey :D this morning in ya coffee? ...OR is this just Scarborough specific? OR maybe me being a bit THICK :$
 
If those current houses are priced today @ say 200K ...and in several years collapse to £80K there be plenty of buyers! MOST of the buyers will be from this thread! lol!xD
 
 

No, there won't.

Firstly, people won't be able to afford the mortgage at 10% or so.  Secondly, people will be running scared -- they'll personally know people that bought that £200k house at £150k (bargain), £120k (great bargain), £100k (massive bargain), each of whom will be crying into their mortgage statements each month.

I'd say the interesting problem is actually on the sellers side -- there's a point at which there's capitulation, but it'll take a long time.  Up to that point being reached you might have lower prices paid (because debt costs are higher), but sellers will sit tight (because they won't give it away).  

I actually find the potential futures of the UK housing market very interesting because of these dynamics (and also the sticky-wages for builders etc, who'll sit moaning about tight work conditions rather than put down their prices).

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6 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...

 
Now ya all know why I HATE financial advisers 99.9% are a bunch of f**king pricks! :Old:
 

Financial advisers are quite dangerous as they pretty much encourage herd behaviours.  This means you see the gains as you move through a cycle, but are massively overexposed at inflection points.  

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ashestoashes

will the state pension keep pace with high inflation ie won't be limited to 5% or 10% rises ?

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1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
spy I really don't understand this post, have ya have a few shots of whiskey :D this morning in ya coffee? ...OR is this just Scarborough specific? OR maybe me being a bit THICK :$
 
If those current houses are priced today @ say 200K ...and in several years collapse to £80K there be plenty of buyers! MOST of the buyers will be from this thread! lol!xD
 
BTW, SLA down today ...we may get a chance to snap some up on the cheap!

I have made many points. You appear to have misread them all.

People need to live somewhere.

You can rent. Or take the plunge and buy, fixing your mortgage and keeping the mortgage around the cost of renting.

Id not encourage over paying but if a FTB can jump straight and but the  the family with a fixed, ~3% mortgage, then the price dropping 30-50% might not matter too much.

Then the dynamics get interesting - starter home have to drop as the buyers are skipping., which puts pressure on flats, etc etc.

In short, its a buyers market. And will be for ther forseeable future.

And, for various reasons, there are very very few buyers in some towns.

FTB were killed by IO BTLers in 2002ish. Now IO BTL has been killed, and about time too.

Heres the current listing of houses 150-250.

https://www.home.co.uk/search/results.htm?high=150%2C000&low=250%2C00&minbeds=&maxbeds=&lat=54.2852&long=0.401645&location=scarborough&TOWN_SEARCH=1&MAP_SEARCH=&radius=3&sort=PRICE_DESC&found_since=&inc_sold=0&loose=1&showmap=0

307 for sales.

There were about ~100 house sales in Scabby in May, average selling price under 150k.

Id love to know the figures but I dont know where I can get them, but Id guess there were a lot more than 100 people dying in Scabby in May 19.

Prices have been stuck around same figures for 15 years.

Lets say you are Mr n Mrs Retiring, who are looking to move near the kids.

Mr Yellowcords EA has said he can sell your house for 200k.

Fater it sitting there for 12 months, what price would you accept? Like dgul, Im fascinated whne the damm will break. Its got to soon. EAs must be blowing off tramps i nthe park for loose change.

Most 70+ inthe area will leave their house in a box instead of a removal lorry.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

EAs must be blowing off tramps i nthe park for loose change

xDxDxD

@spygirl @dgul thanks, gotcha i understand now, told ya i can be a bit tick at times!O.o

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