Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Majorpain]

Well, silver is finally finding catching a bid.  Still not much chatter about PM's amongst the herd but at this rate they will catch on sooner rather than later hopefully!

[janch]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7326881/How-nearly-HALF-British-adults-pay-NO-income-tax-data-reveals-23-million-adults-exempt-PAYE.html

But..........they do pay NI which in my eyes is still a tax.  

 

Also every time we have a budget, the government makes a big thing out of "taking people out of tax" when half of them aren't paying IR anyway so then it makes no difference to them!

 

The worst of the lot has to be council tax from which there's no escape unless I decide to end my days in a van or tent

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, dgul said:

I think that is a pragmatic approach -- my only concern would be whether the state pension would be so generous (relatively) in 20 years time.  Not sure what can be done about it, though.

Agree that is always a risk,but given i can live very frugal and actually enjoy it its not too bad a risk.Its highly likely id struggle to spend my capital because i simply couldnt go out and buy anything flash,arent interested in holidays abroad etc.Im almost certain to be slowly running capital down until i kick the bucket.

[reformed nice guy]

Great advice on lifestyle planning for retirement - completely agree. I have been growing vegetables for the past few years, something that I have never done before, and this year I have noticed a significant saving on my food bill. Great hobby too.

On a parallel note: gold spiked over 1500 just a moment ago

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

Ah, I see. I guess I'd be doing the same thing in effect. I budget around £6k every 8 years for a car, so £62.50 per month. I do brakes, oil changes myself which keeps costs down. Biggest expense really is running a car (if you've got your house paid off). On top of the replacement cost of course is tax, insurance, fuel, maintenance, MOT, tyres... Could live on a lot less every month without a car but it's essential for me.

I think things are quite a lot cheaper up north. I'm in the South East. You'd have no chance of getting a boiler changed for a grand, no matter how simple. Tradesmen down here cost a fortune. So much so that I've learnt to do most things myself now, saves you a fortune over the years. Unfortunately you can't change a boiler yourself.

I've just started growing vegetables, but more for fun. Food is very cheap IMO. I spend a £100 a month on food for myself and I eat well.

Yes you can get jobs done cheaply up here still.A lot of people are on tax credits so are happy to do the work cheaper.Got upstairs double glazed all in for £1200.The lads use the same window company,no scaffold etc,just up with ladders and done.Good job as well.Cars i pay about £4k and expect to keep 8 to 12 years.Insurance this year was £205 for the year.Repairs are mostly free or very cheap,big parts local scrapyard,others ebay.When not working i tend to use around £15 max fuel a week.More like £10.

2 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

will the state pension keep pace with high inflation ie won't be limited to 5% or 10% rises ?

It will likely be one of the ways government uses to get money into the economy and will be printed if needed,so i would think almost certain to keep pace,at least of quoted figures of course.

[Festival]

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

[Agent ZigZag]

Yes you can get jobs done cheaply up here still.A lot of people are on tax credits so are happy to do the work cheaper.Got upstairs double glazed all in for £1200.

Im in process of doing mine £18k - and that was the cheapest quote from 5

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Agent ZigZag said:

Yes you can get jobs done cheaply up here still.A lot of people are on tax credits so are happy to do the work cheaper.Got upstairs double glazed all in for £1200.

Im in process of doing mine £18k - and that was the cheapest quote from 5

Just over £3k for my whole house here including front door and patio doors at the back etc.Really good job as well.I paid about £2.2k for new combi and all new radiators etc and all new pipes.Those prices are nuts down south.

[Agent ZigZag]

im moving north, but then maybe not as my heating bill will go up

[sleepwello'nights]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Check this out folks:

https://register.fca.org.uk/ShPo_FirmDetailsPage?id=001b000000MfsgUAAR

 

Since 21/04/2016 Legal & General Pensions Ltd ...YOU will have NO protection, I even called the FSCS and they confirmed this, even they were shocked!

 

 

Yes but there are many Legal and General subsidiaries that are regulated and authorised. I speculate that the specific company you looked up was deregulated during a reorganisation for some reason or another and is no longer trading or authorised. Perhaps the FA had some old marketing material that should have been destroyed. I wonder what Legal and General have to say?

https://www.legalandgeneral.com/legal-information/ 

[janch]

47 minutes ago, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

David Hunter‏ @DaveHcontrarian Aug 6

I would be a seller of T-bonds here.TLT has rallied 24% off Oct lows.Could see at least a 10-12 point correction in next few months as equity melt-up takes center stage. I still expect TLT to top out next yr at above 160 with 10yr & 30yr ylds falling below 1/2% & 1% respectively.

 

 

Looks like you're not alone I'm only sad I haven't got any but I shall keep my eyes open in case it starts to rally again although I'll favour the GBP equivalent IBTL

 

 

[Eventually Right]

49 minutes ago, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

I feel like it could quite easily drop a bit, unless this really is the beginning of "the big one". 

I sold out at $132 though, so that might just be me smarting over that!

[Loki]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

First i would learn to live very frugal.Cut down all spending.I still drive a 14 year old car,i buy everything 2nd hand,.Then see how much you have spare each month.Id then start to build a dividend portfolio.If i had £600 a month spare then id be buying a new share every 2 months with £1200 in.In two years you would have 12 stocks.Id stick to around 20 stocks maximum for this,and sometimes top a few up.Stick to  FTSE 350 stocks at first and be a contrarian.Think of the sectors hated but have a future.In 3 years you will find the shares that were hated might not be and new ones will be.I built my wealth with the above strategy.It wants PM miners that got me away,it was buying bus companies at £1 and selling for £5,tobacco companies 15 bagging etc.

Most people make the mistake of wanting everything now,but doing the above,even if you ended up with just £20k and nothing more would likely give you £1000 a year in dividends and likely grow over a cycle.My partner is currently doing the same.When i met her she owed £55k on a £70k house and had zero savings.8 years later she has paid off her house,has £450 a month rental income from it,has a share portfolio of £27k and a dividend income of £1400 a year.She saves around £1000 a month and she will retire at 56 instead of 67 .

Getting to £12k a year dividend income takes a long time and effort for ordinary waged people (im one of them),but even getting a third of the way along gets you a nice £4000 a year you dont have to earn.Minimum wage part time jobs are ten a penny,and if you have that sort of dividend income,it means you can work 16 hours a week instead of 40 if you choose,and instead of retiring,semi retire.

Thanks durhamborn, just what I needed, the bit in bold especially.  I've got about £1500 in my stocks and shares ISA, I can give more details if you like, most of them will be familiar to you and the other contributors to this thread though!

5 hours ago, A_P said:

One has to start somewhere. What age bracket are you in? If there is a will there is a way. Snowballing an army of dollar bills goes a long way, if you have time and effort on your side.

 

I'm 34.  Good idea about holding physical dollars!  

[VeryMeanReversion]

1 hour ago, janch said:

The worst of the lot has to be council tax from which there's no escape unless I decide to end my days in a van or tent

My in-laws get an exemption for low income and low savings. Since they have no mortgage and MrsVMR is their taxi, they have a higher disposable income than I do.  I worked out that it was actually better to set some of their savings on fire to get the exemption which saves ~£1600 per year. Instead, they got a few things done on the house, paid some utility bills in advance and gave some £ away.

With a bit more paperwork, employ yourself as an apprentice earning <£195/week to get a 50% discount. It appears that any accredited course is sufficient. Flower arranging would do.

From the small print, only the apprenticeship wages count. Other income sources seem to be ignored. I see nothing in the apprenticeship agreement that stops you employing yourself for 1 minute a year and then paying yourself to do a cheap mickey mouse course.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apprenticeship-agreement-template

Example application form for discount

https://www.herefordshire.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/1263/apprentice_discount_form.pdf

 

If you don't fancy that, there is always the mental impairment exemption.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

16 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yes but there are many Legal and General subsidiaries that are regulated and authorised. I speculate that the specific company you looked up was deregulated during a reorganisation for some reason or another and is no longer trading or authorised. Perhaps the FA had some old marketing material that should have been destroyed. I wonder what Legal and General have to say?

https://www.legalandgeneral.com/legal-information/ 

 

I asked to speak with a senior manager at L&G however was just fobbed off, their is NO info about protection on their site, again was given BS they are restructuring the site thats why no info, yet all the other pension sites i checked had indeed protection info on their sites...

 

At the end of the day, I'd rather go with what the FSCS has told me and that is if L&G get into trouble the FSCS can NOT help me.

 

Also why hasn't the FA come back to me with an answer about this issue?

[janch]

Raoul Pal‏Verified account @RaoulGMI 17h17 hours ago

Raoul Pal Retweeted zerohedge

This is a very important article. It's technical and you will have seen a few of us debate it on FinTwit but this is the best explainer Ive seen. I fear the EU banks in this...

Raoul Pal added,

zerohedge @zerohedge

liquidity is about to get so low, the Fed may need to launch QE in Q4 according to BofA. In 2008 the catalyst was Lehman and a market crash. Now it's currency war (and a market crash?) …

 

Your predictions are coming true

@DurhamBorn

 

 

The article is a bit beyond me but could be of interest to others............

 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

I asked to speak with a senior manager at L&G however was just fobbed off, their is NO info about protection on their site, again was given BS they are restructuring the site thats why no info, yet all the other pension sites i checked had indeed protection info on their sites...

 

At the end of the day, I'd rather go with what the FSCS has told me and that is if L&G get into trouble the FSCS can NOT help me.

 

Also why hasn't the FA come back to me with an answer about this issue?

Out of curiosity I searched Legal and General Assurance on the FCA register: https://register.fca.org.uk/shpo_searchresultspage?search=legal+and+general+&TOKEN=3wq1nht7eg7tr. 

Lots of their subsidiaries are authorised, some are not. I guess with an organisation that big there is an issue with administration. Probably some IT geeks haven't got their act together and properly updated their website as they say. Nevertheless for an organisation as large as they are they should ensure their regulatory administration is fully compliant.

[Bear Hug]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Well, silver is finally finding catching a bid.  Still not much chatter about PM's amongst the herd but at this rate they will catch on sooner rather than later hopefully!

Nobody told Hecla Mining about it. Down on good silver day thanks to its results. Buy more? Seeking Alpha not was not impressed

[A_P]

29 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks durhamborn, just what I needed, the bit in bold especially.  I've got about £1500 in my stocks and shares ISA, I can give more details if you like, most of them will be familiar to you and the other contributors to this thread though!

I'm 34.  Good idea about holding physical dollars!  

It was meant as figure of speech. Start early, no matter how small and you'll be surprised how quickly things can snowball.

Personally give your age (we are similar) I wouldn't go with the frugality first, unless you're already there and don't mind it. If you haven't done so looking at wastage within your day to day expenditure can free up a lot of money. If you're handy with excel download your statements and analyse the data. I track our spending and finances monthly and it's quite surprisingly how easy it is to generate a lot of momentum.

Given you're starting out I would go about it a differently to DB. More than one way to skin a cat though. I'd recommend you check out Lars Kroijer's youtube series investing demystified and his building of a financial model.

[Cosmic]

1 hour ago, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

I pulled out of IBTL at 394, thought I'd absolutely nailed the near term top for about 3 days. Thought we'd see the pound up on some sort of Brexit plan by now... still, profit in the bag and all that...

Really want a pullback on GDXJ to get some more for the long term, just keeps going though!

[A_P]

1 hour ago, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

with the fed cutting rates and likely another round of QE? Nothing goes up in a straight line but a mechancial approach could be one way to mitigate timing the market.

[Cosmic]

On 04/08/2019 at 23:32, Harley said:

The monthly charts can be interesting........

The SIL (silver miners ETF) price is now back at precisely where it was after it peaked in it's failed break out in January this year ($27). 

But then done just fine until recently. 

One to watch!

Don't suppose you've been able to buy SLV at all? AJBELL is a big no no for this one. I've spent some time trying to find an alternative vehicle for silver miners that is available to purchase here but have not had any success. My allocation would be too small (along with my knowledge) to pick in this sector.

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Great advice on lifestyle planning for retirement - completely agree. I have been growing vegetables for the past few years, something that I have never done before, and this year I have noticed a significant saving on my food bill. Great hobby too.

On a parallel note: gold spiked over 1500 just a moment ago

Gold 2.2% UP, Silver 4% UP, looks like panic buying to me...!

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, A_P said:

It was meant as figure of speech. Start early, no matter how small and you'll be surprised how quickly things can snowball.

Personally give your age (we are similar) I wouldn't go with the frugality first, unless you're already there and don't mind it. If you haven't done so looking at wastage within your day to day expenditure can free up a lot of money. If you're handy with excel download your statements and analyse the data. I track our spending and finances monthly and it's quite surprisingly how easy it is to generate a lot of momentum.

Given you're starting out I would go about it a differently to DB. More than one way to skin a cat though. I'd recommend you check out Lars Kroijer's youtube series investing demystified and his building of a financial model.

I'm naturally pretty frugal, not to the point of silliness, but only change vehicles when needed for example.  Do all my own cooking.  Buying secondhand is the only thing I could really work on, but I tent not to as I prefer things without an unknown history and some sort of guarantee, given that I don't buy frivolous things.  Luckily I can put some expenses down as business expenses.  I'm looking up Lars Kroijer as we speak, many thanks.

[A_P]

4 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Don't suppose you've been able to buy SLV at all? AJBELL is a big no no for this one. I've spent some time trying to find an alternative vehicle for silver miners that is available to purchase here but have not had any success. My allocation would be too small (along with my knowledge) to pick in this sector.

No KIID available

PHSP or SGLN are some options for silver exposure. I'm currently up 22% on PHSP.