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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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9 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Nobody told Hecla Mining about it. Down on good silver day thanks to its results. Buy more? Seeking Alpha not was not impressed

Happened to Great Panther not so long ago, when they diluted out of the blue. Went down -10% on a green day.

Shit companies have the highest potential to go exponential in a bull run but it's important to remember them all the way for what they truly are, so when they run 4 placements in a month or report an operating loss for a quarter, it does not surprise you.

And as far as shit companies go, Hecla is definitely up there with the worst of them.

I've sold all my Harmony today and redistributed between Yamana-ooh-na-na and Guyana-na-na-na. Of all pure gold miners on my radar, Guyana seems the most likely not to lag too much behind its silver-oriented counterparts. Yamana is mostly there for diversification (hahaha) between gold miners, and it's silver output should give it a slight edge over other choices. Both should outperform Harmony if the run continues IMHO.

And I know I might be forced to eat crow later this year but, boy oh boy, that $1300/oz ceiling for New Gold doesn't look too sexy now.

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6 minutes ago, A_P said:

No KIID available

PHSP or SGLN are some options for silver exposure. I'm currently up 22% on PHSP.

I was after something with miners rather than physical, something akin to GDXJ but silver focused. Suppose I will have to make do with the silver exposure in GDX/J and some major miners.

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2 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

I was after something with miners rather than physical, something akin to GDXJ but silver focused. Suppose I will have to make do with the silver exposure in GDX/J and some major miners.

Not available to us unless you have the big bucks.

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12 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Happened to Great Panther not so long ago, when they diluted out of the blue. Went down -10% on a green day.

Shit companies have the highest potential to go exponential in a bull run but it's important to remember them all the way for what they truly are, so when they run 4 placements in a month or report an operating loss for a quarter, it does not surprise you.

And as far as shit companies go, Hecla is definitely up there with the worst of them.

I've sold all my Harmony today and redistributed between Yamana-ooh-na-na and Guyana-na-na-na. Of all pure gold miners on my radar, Guyana seems the most likely not to lag too much behind its silver-oriented counterparts. Yamana is mostly there for diversification (hahaha) between gold miners, and it's silver output should give it a slight edge over other choices. Both should outperform Harmony if the run continues IMHO.

And I know I might be forced to eat crow later this year but, boy oh boy, that $1300/oz ceiling for New Gold doesn't look too sexy now.

Exactly.One of my top rubber band stocks was Endeavour Silver.Everyone said they were high grading etc and avoid.Of course they were,but that makes no difference when the turn comes.I sold a lot of my Harmony,i had a very big holding,but holding some.They might 20 bag in a real gold bull.I sold some Endeavour today.Lots of these companies are poor and anyone buying the sector needs to remember that.

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1 hour ago, janch said:

Raoul PalVerified account @RaoulGMI 17h17 hours ago

Raoul Pal Retweeted zerohedge

This is a very important article. It's technical and you will have seen a few of us debate it on FinTwit but this is the best explainer Ive seen. I fear the EU banks in this...

Raoul Pal added,

zerohedge @zerohedge
liquidity is about to get so low, the Fed may need to launch QE in Q4 according to BofA. In 2008 the catalyst was Lehman and a market crash. Now it's currency war (and a market crash?) …
 
Your predictions are coming true
 
 
The article is a bit beyond me but could be of interest to others............
 
 

 

 

:D

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

GOLD ...is ROCKETING, UP $36 today, is EVERY one on this thread holding GOLD coming in their panties with joy lol!xD

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leonardratso

yeah, unfortunately CNA+VOD+SLA all underperform and drag the shit pile all down, but never mind, look on the bright side, the goldies and silvers are propping the whole house of cards up with bits of string and sellotape. Proper good engineering going on.

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Bobthebuilder

Sold my profit in Harmony this evening, thats a few months drip feeding into the reflations sorted.

Cheers everyone. Im off to have a cold one.

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Worth noting that gold went up $230/oz since the 30th of May while DXY lost just 0.5%. Whatever is pushing gold up, it's not dollar weakness... at least not yet.

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

Ah ,apologies

np. just worth being mindful that chap is retweeting and following a lot of the doomsayers

 

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

yeah, unfortunately CNA+VOD+SLA all underperform and drag the shit pile all down, but never mind, look on the bright side, the goldies and silvers are propping the whole house of cards up with bits of string and sellotape. Proper good engineering going on.

I'm down 43% on CNA, an expensive four figure lesson. Thankfully i had the forsight to set a stoploss on SLA at 300 when it hit 311. VOD only 11% down with divs :CryBaby:

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Inoperational Bumblebee
9 hours ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn I didn't realise the sort of amounts people were talking about on this thread.  What would your advice be to someone with no debt, a decent wage, but also with no chance of investing multiple thousands of pounds into a strategy?

You've got to start somewhere! I started four or five years ago after working out what my outgoings where and stopped buying so much crap, putting what I could afford away each month. You might find you catch things at the right time by accident (or on purpose!) e.g. PM miners mentioned here, crypto, etc. If you don't, then adding a bit each month to assets that are themselves generating income will snowball over time. There are also unexpected windfalls! You can also either try to increase your income, reduce your outgoings, or both.
TINA, DYOR, but I'd be going for boring dividend stocks that didn't dip as much as the rest around 2008. With maybe a few quid here and there into high risk stuff like GDXJ or bitcoin.

3 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

I feel like it could quite easily drop a bit, unless this really is the beginning of "the big one". 

I sold out at $132 though, so that might just be me smarting over that!

I sold out too early too (it's up 23.7% since then...) but it went into stuff like Endeavour which is now up more than that. Interestingly, my whole portfolio is also up 23% since then.

 

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4 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Don't suppose you've been able to buy SLV at 

SSLN is the GBX iShares Physical Silver fund...

 

Reading a bit closer it seems you were looking for miners?

 

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10 hours ago, Starsend said:

Unfortunately you can't change a boiler yourself.

You can, but you either a) need a Corgi reg tradesman to connect the gas and issue a cert, or b) .....no, lets not go there as you would never be able to claim on you building insurance!

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40 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

SSLN is the GBX iShares Physical Silver fund...

 

Reading a bit closer it seems you were looking for miners?

 

Yes. Too many flipping tla/flas in my flipping head, should have checked my notes. It's slv for the silver miners.

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8 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 
@DurhamBorn Ya post made me write something right now, however to go into details would take several pages!xD
 
Hands UP I'm in me mid-fifties, and I've paid into a personal pension for 35 years, over the last 6 weeks been trying to get my head around this pension malarkey, complex is an understatement, anyway...finally I get there and decide what i want (similar to your post DB), as my pot has grown to just a little over £100K, the provider allows FREE advice from their financial adviser, long story short...
 
...talking to this FA was a joke, i mean the questions he asked were like YOU had NO idea about managing money,  i mean it was just a waste of time AND...
 
If i took this FA C**T's advice ...he would have taken a piss taking RIP-OFF £3,000 commission, AND I could possibly LOOSE my entire pension pot, WHY...?
 
This FA C**T recommend a scheme from Legal & General Pensions Ltd, so I did my HOME-WORK, and guess WHAT?
 
Check this out folks:
 
Since 21/04/2016 Legal & General Pensions Ltd ...YOU will have NO protection, I even called the FSCS and they confirmed this, even they were shocked!
 
When i emailed the FA C**T about the above...for some odd reason he has NOT replied!  :wanker:
 
Now ya all know why I HATE financial advisers 99.9% are a bunch of f**king pricks! :Old:
 

YRS I think your last statement is a bit harsh!...

 

 

.....i`d say 99.8%! :-)

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31 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/literature/fact-sheet/ssln-ishares-physical-silver-etc-fund-fact-sheet-en-gb.pdf

A $10k investment since its inception in 2011 would have fallen to about half. Could this be a time to get on board?

That was the fund I meant to quote rather than the gold. I went with phsp as I have the iShares physical gold myself. 

Who knows if it's the right time. Choose an allocation amount and rebalance as necessary? It's what I'm doing with phsp

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5 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm naturally pretty frugal, not to the point of silliness, but only change vehicles when needed for example.  Do all my own cooking.  Buying secondhand is the only thing I could really work on, but I tent not to as I prefer things without an unknown history and some sort of guarantee, given that I don't buy frivolous things.  Luckily I can put some expenses down as business expenses.  I'm looking up Lars Kroijer as we speak, many thanks.

Check out his book as well...mentioned in the `The Library` thread.

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

np. just worth being mindful that chap is retweeting and following a lot of the doomsayers

 

I'm down 43% on CNA, an expensive four figure lesson. Thankfully i had the forsight to set a stoploss on SLA at 300 when it hit 311. VOD only 11% down with divs :CryBaby:

Im down about £5k i think on Centrica,up £1.5k on SLA,level on Vod but made more in cash terms on my portfolio than any other year apart from one just after the tech boom.Id be glad to buy some more SLA if they keep falling and also hope to top up many other stocks that have been smashed down.To be honest it couldnt of gone much better.PMs delivering massive profits with several 100% profits and nearly all 50%+ while other stocks been laddered into as they fall.Id be very happy if the stocks iv laddered into turn within another 20%.Many of them will go up 100%++ dividends over the next cycle.Some will fail of course.

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5 hours ago, kibuc said:

Happened to Great Panther not so long ago, when they diluted out of the blue. Went down -10% on a green day.

Shit companies have the highest potential to go exponential in a bull run but it's important to remember them all the way for what they truly are, so when they run 4 placements in a month or report an operating loss for a quarter, it does not surprise you.

And as far as shit companies go, Hecla is definitely up there with the worst of them.

I've sold all my Harmony today and redistributed between Yamana-ooh-na-na and Guyana-na-na-na. Of all pure gold miners on my radar, Guyana seems the most likely not to lag too much behind its silver-oriented counterparts. Yamana is mostly there for diversification (hahaha) between gold miners, and it's silver output should give it a slight edge over other choices. Both should outperform Harmony if the run continues IMHO.

And I know I might be forced to eat crow later this year but, boy oh boy, that $1300/oz ceiling for New Gold doesn't look too sexy now.

Similar problem with Hecla

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-07-18/Hecla-Reports-Hedges-In-Options-Market-Higher-2Q-Silver-Output.html

Quote

The company said it established hedges that utilize put options on expected gold and silver sales through the first quarter of 2020, locking in a minimum average price of $1,400 per gold ounce and $15.13 per silver ounce.

Although I guess the upside isn't limited here, just wasted costs of buying options

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56 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Check out his book as well...mentioned in the `The Library` thread.

Already ordered! Good to have another recommendation for it though, thanks

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2 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

You've got to start somewhere! I started four or five years ago after working out what my outgoings where and stopped buying so much crap, putting what I could afford away each month. You might find you catch things at the right time by accident (or on purpose!) e.g. PM miners mentioned here, crypto, etc. If you don't, then adding a bit each month to assets that are themselves generating income will snowball over time. There are also unexpected windfalls! You can also either try to increase your income, reduce your outgoings, or both.
TINA, DYOR, but I'd be going for boring dividend stocks that didn't dip as much as the rest around 2008. With maybe a few quid here and there into high risk stuff like GDXJ or bitcoin.

 

Yes, I'm pretty much following the advice in this thread with the smaller amount I have - so far the only thing to be up was Infrastrata which I took a small amount of profit from (Wish I'd sold the lot now!) and my physical bullion which I started buying over 5 years ago.  I just had a bit of a panic about whether my smaller amounts would make the whole exercise fruitless, if I hadn't managed to accrue enough in my portfolio by the time the credit deflation kicks in properly.

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