Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Well, silver is finally finding catching a bid.  Still not much chatter about PM's amongst the herd but at this rate they will catch on sooner rather than later hopefully!

I went from having no hope of having any Fresnillo to having a 1.5% position in two weeks.Worth a punt.As you allude,at some point silver will catch a bid.Gold/silver ratio at 89.

Looking at these long term charts makes me more of a silver bull

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

If you allow those using TLT as a dollar proxy to vote,then I'd say yes.DXY to weaken from here for some time.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Nobody told Hecla Mining about it. Down on good silver day thanks to its results. Buy more? Seeking Alpha not was not impressed

We have a few but we're not averaging in on that one

 

6 hours ago, kibuc said:

Happened to Great Panther not so long ago, when they diluted out of the blue. Went down -10% on a green day.

Shit companies have the highest potential to go exponential in a bull run but it's important to remember them all the way for what they truly are, so when they run 4 placements in a month or report an operating loss for a quarter, it does not surprise you.

And as far as shit companies go, Hecla is definitely up there with the worst of them.

I've sold all my Harmony today and redistributed between Yamana-ooh-na-na and Guyana-na-na-na. Of all pure gold miners on my radar, Guyana seems the most likely not to lag too much behind its silver-oriented counterparts. Yamana is mostly there for diversification (hahaha) between gold miners, and it's silver output should give it a slight edge over other choices. Both should outperform Harmony if the run continues IMHO.

And I know I might be forced to eat crow later this year but, boy oh boy, that $1300/oz ceiling for New Gold doesn't look too sexy now.

Can New Gold jsut hold production back until the agreements are finished?

I like the look of Yamana too we've held since 2017,ran out of ladders on the way down.

6 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

I was after something with miners rather than physical, something akin to GDXJ but silver focused. Suppose I will have to make do with the silver exposure in GDX/J and some major miners.

????

https://etfdb.com/etf/SIL/

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Worth noting that gold went up $230/oz since the 30th of May while DXY lost just 0.5%. Whatever is pushing gold up, it's not dollar weakness... at least not yet.

This is the most interesting aspect of what's ongoing by a country mile to me.A lot of my time at the moment is spent plotting reactions/solutions to various dollar movements.Golds move up without dollar weakness is a real conundrum to me.Can't get my head round it.

 

And as you say K,wait till DXY drops.I topped up a bit of Fres today,added some Rio2/Superior/POG as run off from the GDX components run up leaving us positive equity for now.'play n spray'.

It's the conundrum that you highlight that keeps me in to see what happens.

We'll be buying pullbacks on XAU/GDX/J/HUI from here.Just can't believe how quickly it's rocked up over two monhts.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im down about £5k i think on Centrica,up £1.5k on SLA,level on Vod but made more in cash terms on my portfolio than any other year apart from one just after the tech boom.Id be glad to buy some more SLA if they keep falling and also hope to top up many other stocks that have been smashed down.To be honest it couldnt of gone much better.PMs delivering massive profits with several 100% profits and nearly all 50%+ while other stocks been laddered into as they fall.Id be very happy if the stocks iv laddered into turn within another 20%.Many of them will go up 100%++ dividends over the next cycle.Some will fail of course.

We're heavily down on CNA.Worst calls of the last ten years in trading terms.I've reflected,realsied the mistakes I made.

[sancho panza]

On 06/08/2019 at 19:50, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Shaun Richards discussing the UK banks and why they're (still) doing badly:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2019/08/06/why-are-the-uk-banks-still-doing-so-badly/

Quite timely given the recent discussion on Lloyds, RBS & HSBC on here.

Shaun is one of the and I mean THE most underated economists out there.

Quite why we have to suffer the blundering fools on the BoE with their bloated imputed rents contribution to GDP and unbloated contribution to CPIH I really don't know.

On 06/08/2019 at 00:32, Cattle Prod said:

I spoke to guys in the majors about going into shale, as in "wtf are you playing at??". Their answer is its like a factory to them. Thin, but reliable margins. They dont have the sunk costs the smaller pioneers do, and are simply fire sale shopping. Oil managers, engineers, economists just love, and I mean LOVE, the predictable returns of shale. Most people in oil, like anyone else, can't cope with a 75% chance of losing ~ $50m. Typical of an exploration well. But I digress. 

However geology is not predictable, returns will not be even. I will watch with interest to see if Exxon (who are the best engineering company) can keep up production after the sweet spots are gone. 

I still don't buy it, and have favoured Shell over BP for this reason.

Thanks for the heads up CP.That makes perfect sense when you look at it their way.My Dad used to work for XOM.Said they were very good at what they did.

 

Oil down...again.The doom mongers are out and amongst it.Spending all spare time on big oil at the mo.

https://www.cityam.com/oil-price-falls-to-lowest-point-in-eight-months/

The price of international oil standard Brent crude plummeted to its lowest point since the beginning of the year today as trade war worries gripped the market.

The 3.2 per cent oil price drop came after a torrid week for markets, with prices down by around $8 since last Wednesday.

Read more: Market correction pushes up oil prices after Trump tariffs sparked rout

A barrel of the black stuff reached lows of $56.77 this afternoon.

“Oil has been crushed by recent events and the risks posed to the global economy and therefore the demand outlook,” said Craig Erlam, an analyst Oanda.

Meanwhile WTI crude, the US standard, hit $52.06 per barrel, down 2.9 per cent on the day.

 

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

42 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes, I'm pretty much following the advice in this thread with the smaller amount I have - so far the only thing to be up was Infrastrata which I took a small amount of profit from (Wish I'd sold the lot now!) and my physical bullion which I started buying over 5 years ago.  I just had a bit of a panic about whether my smaller amounts would make the whole exercise fruitless, if I hadn't managed to accrue enough in my portfolio by the time the credit deflation kicks in properly.

Never regret taking a profit! You don't know the future, and research suggests you feel a loss twice as hard as the same amount gained (though I may have phrased that wrong).
It's the greed vs fear balance. The psychology of investing is very important. You need to know when to not do something as well as when to do something.
It's also important to have a plan that you actually keep to i.e. take profits. I saw BTC go up to $20k and all the way back down again. The drop in my portfolio size was a year's wages.

It certainly won't be a fruitless exercise if you can increase your wealth. What's your ultimate aim for the money? Sorry if I missed that.
If it's all you can afford, then it's all you can afford. Surely it's better to increase whatever you do have?

I can see two positive ways of looking at it:
1 - if it's difficult to save larger amounts, then this is already an 'important amount' relative to your income/lifestyle/blah. Don't measure yourself against others. You ain't paying for them.
or
2 - if this is small change to you but you can't alter your income or outgoings and you don't need this money at all (due to job stability, etc.), you might feel more comfortable going much higher risk with it, with a potential bigger pay-off. I suspect this is much less likely than 1. It's certainly more gambling than investing. If 'gambling' tempts you and you're unable to stop yourself, limit it to a fixed amount. If you blow it, it's gone. Leave the investments to do their thing.

FWIW, when I first started it felt like a hard slog. Through various good luck (happy to share details via PM if interested) I've accrued about 2 years wages in my portfolio. Probably laughable to some here, but I'm a family man of 39 who can't really put much away.

Your good luck may well be getting into PMs or inflation stocks because of this thread. Or something completely different.
You really have no idea how things will go in the future, but the point is that you now have actual skin in the game, and that you started in the first place.

Keep going. You can only succeed if you try.

[Loki]

Thanks for that @Inoperational Bumblebee!  I'm doing it in the hopes that, as a minimum, that money which I can afford to set aside will have it's value preserved (In real terms) and of course any that multibag to use durhamborns phrase, will be a happy bonus.

26 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Your good luck may well be getting into PMs or inflation stocks because of this thread. Or something completely different.
You really have no idea how things will go in the future, but the point is that you now have actual skin in the game, and that you started in the first place.

Keep going. You can only succeed if you try.

You're completely right of course!  Important to keep learning too

[Harley]

I'm down CNA a bit too, although still averaging in.  Not at all bothered really as I bought it for the div and anything can happen, plus others to compensate. 

All I want my div portfolio to do is produce income not at the long turn cost of paying it with my capital.  So above inflation divs and breakeven capital value is my floor.  I won't know that for ages but I doubt it.  Even income trusts raid reserves during hard times.  

Comes back to being clear on your objectives, being consistent, and not over trading.  Things always change, good and bad, in the intermediate to long term.  Almost fire and forget for me on this one.  I'm not trading this portfolio do am more interested in what to do with each new investable pound.

Like VOD which is now showing a small profit due to recent laddering (having implemented a mechanical buying system) and the sale of their US stake way back (the proceeds of which I set against the share cost).

Re. you younger ones.  Nobody got rich by wasting money and time heals a hell of a lot, especially compounding a sensible asset allocation so being youngish is a massive plus. 

Maybe it is harder now but I was broke in my early 30s.  A few sensible, somewhat frugal, decades sorted that out enough (I hope!), and I did it renting for almost all of the time.  Taking the time to walk my own road without comparing or modelling myself on others was key for me.  Someone from work once picked me up from home.  I should have felt embarrassed but I had a bigger plan.

My one regret was not investing for the long term earlier.  I can fix a lot of things but not time.

[Straingone]

On 10/07/2019 at 16:30, billfunk said:

Nickel inventories are depleting and current production is not able to meet demand. There is a chart somewhere showing that a serious shortage will have developed by 2021-22. Chartwise HZM has recently formed a nice round double bottom and curled up.

Just caught this article below, will be interesting to see if this accelerates the share price any.

Not long to find out, markets opening soon.

 

Nickel soars on talk of Indonesia export ban
BY REUTERS
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: AUG 7

SINGAPORE — Nickel prices shot up on Thursday, with London nickel set for its biggest one-day gain in a decade and Shanghai nickel touching a record high amid worries that major supplier Indonesia could soon ban exports of ore.

Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange rallied as much as 12.7%, its strongest one-day jump since 2009, while the most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rallied to 124,890 yuan ($17,736.53) a tonne, its highest on record.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

6 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

FWIW, when I first started it felt like a hard slog. Through various good luck (happy to share details via PM if interested) I've accrued about 2 years wages in my portfolio. Probably laughable to some here, but I'm a family man of 39 who can't really put much away.

I don't think anybody would laugh at that.  It's huge, a cushion like that would provide a lot of peace of mind.

I need to get myself into a similar position.

[A_P]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'm down CNA a bit too, although still averaging in.  Not at all bothered really as I bought it for the div and anything can happen, plus others to compensate. 

All I want my div portfolio to do is produce income not at the long turn cost of paying it with my capital.  So above inflation divs and breakeven capital value is my floor.  I won't know that for ages but I doubt it.  Even income trusts raid reserves during hard times.  

Comes back to being clear on your objectives, being consistent, and not over trading.  Things always change, good and bad, in the intermediate to long term.  Almost fire and forget for me on this one.  I'm not trading this portfolio do am more interested in what to do with each new investable pound.

Like VOD which is now showing a small profit due to recent laddering (having implemented a mechanical buying system) and the sale of their US stake way back (the proceeds of which I set against the share cost).

Re. you younger ones.  Nobody got rich by wasting money and time heals a hell of a lot, especially compounding a sensible asset allocation so being youngish is a massive plus. 

Maybe it is harder now but I was broke in my early 30s.  A few sensible, somewhat frugal, decades sorted that out enough (I hope!), and I did it renting for almost all of the time.  Taking the time to walk my own road without comparing or modelling myself on others was key for me.  Someone from work once picked me up from home.  I should have felt embarrassed but I had a bigger plan.

My one regret was not investing for the long term earlier.  I can fix a lot of things but not time.

Great post Harly.

Just in regards to CNA though is there much point in the div with it's current trajectory? I have a feeling as 201p says with the rounds numbers CNA is at least  going to 50p. imo the div needs to be cut considerbly and unless things change drastically overthere it will be a compay for us young'un as you oldies won't be seeing a return on the capital in your lifetime at this rate

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

.......

Comes back to being clear on your objectives....

 

My one regret was not investing for the long term earlier.  I can fix a lot of things but not time.

Wish I had discovered this thread (or the thoughts it has propagated) thirty years ago!

[A_P]

7 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Never regret taking a profit! You don't know the future, and research suggests you feel a loss twice as hard as the same amount gained (though I may have phrased that wrong).
It's the greed vs fear balance. The psychology of investing is very important. You need to know when to not do something as well as when to do something.
It's also important to have a plan that you actually keep to i.e. take profits. I saw BTC go up to $20k and all the way back down again. The drop in my portfolio size was a year's wages.

It certainly won't be a fruitless exercise if you can increase your wealth. What's your ultimate aim for the money? Sorry if I missed that.
If it's all you can afford, then it's all you can afford. Surely it's better to increase whatever you do have?

I can see two positive ways of looking at it:
1 - if it's difficult to save larger amounts, then this is already an 'important amount' relative to your income/lifestyle/blah. Don't measure yourself against others. You ain't paying for them.
or
2 - if this is small change to you but you can't alter your income or outgoings and you don't need this money at all (due to job stability, etc.), you might feel more comfortable going much higher risk with it, with a potential bigger pay-off. I suspect this is much less likely than 1. It's certainly more gambling than investing. If 'gambling' tempts you and you're unable to stop yourself, limit it to a fixed amount. If you blow it, it's gone. Leave the investments to do their thing.

FWIW, when I first started it felt like a hard slog. Through various good luck (happy to share details via PM if interested) I've accrued about 2 years wages in my portfolio. Probably laughable to some here, but I'm a family man of 39 who can't really put much away.

Your good luck may well be getting into PMs or inflation stocks because of this thread. Or something completely different.
You really have no idea how things will go in the future, but the point is that you now have actual skin in the game, and that you started in the first place.

Keep going. You can only succeed if you try.

Certainly isn't laughable. Really that just goes to show what is achiaveable in a "short" time frame. Our journey started in 2015 when we started looking to buy a house and I got a serious jolt to the system. Between us we had no debt, however only a 10% deposit on a shoebox in the SE with a mortgage I wouldn't feel comfortable taking on due to my risk and debt aversion. It took some time and effort to adjust but really looking back it was mostly small steps, change of mindset and breaking the conditioning. It's quite amazing how so many of our "friends" have flat out said things are not possible. Then in the next bredth it's how we need to go on holiday as we've not had a big one for a few years. Looking at the Heathrow pictures yesterday I'm quite happy that I don't have the need to go on holiday anymore . Well four years later life is very different and really in the grand scheme of things, four years hasn't taken all that long.

For most it's just getting into the habit. Utilising tax efficiencies, saving on investment fees and let the snowball build. Services like Nutmeg, Moneyfarm, Vanguard are great starting platforms  that allow people to accumalate initially and really for most people in their 20's-30's really something like VG or an eqivulent will be far better than trying to be a stockpicker over the course of 30-40 years.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, A_P said:

Great post Harly.

Just in regards to CNA though is there much point in the div with it's current trajectory? I have a feeling as 201p says with the rounds numbers CNA is at least  going to 50p. imo the div needs to be cut considerbly and unless things change drastically overthere it will be a compay for us young'un as you oldies won't be seeing a return on the capital in your lifetime at this rate

Ta.  Re. CNA, I'm certainly not buying any more at the moment!  I seeded my portfolio early on with a purchase or two when I realised I needed an income portfolio and then adopted a mechanical system when I got smarter about it and am currently waiting for further buy signals. 

Highlights another rule I adopted - buy cheap, never an overpriced story - learnt in 2000!  That scared me out of the market for a long time until the pain of no retirement future and cash becoming trash became too great.  I matured a bit and got up to speed, learning to respect and fear the market and my emotions.

My system buys when momentum starts to pick up from a low level on a weekly basis.  Nothing fancy, many others available.  Also no guarantee as stock prices can sometimes still go down and I may have been lucky overall given the overall market.  However hopefully better than waking up in the morning, panicking, and buying some stock without looking at the chart.  Or listening to the MSM.

Also funny how the lessons learnt in the finance area (e.g. MSM) has spread to other parts of my life.  I have popped a lot of red pills since embarking on this finance journey. A lot of very clever organisations are out there to take my money.  But "it's my money and I don't have to spend it"!

[Loki]

3 hours ago, Shaneyson said:

Just caught this article below, will be interesting to see if this accelerates the share price any.

Not long to find out, markets opening soon.

 

Nickel soars on talk of Indonesia export ban
BY REUTERS
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: AUG 7

SINGAPORE — Nickel prices shot up on Thursday, with London nickel set for its biggest one-day gain in a decade and Shanghai nickel touching a record high amid worries that major supplier Indonesia could soon ban exports of ore.

Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange rallied as much as 12.7%, its strongest one-day jump since 2009, while the most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rallied to 124,890 yuan ($17,736.53) a tonne, its highest on record.

 That must be the news that sent my Horizonte up by 11% today.  

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  Re. CNA, I'm certainly not buying any more at the moment!  I seeded my portfolio early on with a purchase or two when I realised I needed an income portfolio and then adopted a mechanical system when I got smarter about it and am currently waiting for further buy signals. 

Highlights another rule I adopted - buy cheap, never an overpriced story - learnt in 2000!  That scared me out of the market for a long time until the pain of no retirement future and cash becoming trash became too great.  I matured a bit and got up to speed, learning to respect and fear the market and my emotions.

My system buys when momentum starts to pick up from a low level on a weekly basis.  Nothing fancy, many others available.  Also no guarantee as stock prices can sometimes still go down and I may have been lucky overall given the overall market.  However hopefully better than waking up in the morning, panicking, and buying some stock without looking at the chart.  Or listening to the MSM.

Also funny how the lessons learnt in the finance area (e.g. MSM) has spread to other parts of my life.  I have popped a lot of red pills since embarking on this finance journey. A lot of very clever organisations are out there to take my money.  But "it's my money and I don't have to spend it"!

Very true.Iv always found buying contrarian value plays with a mechanical strategy the best option.Yes some fail,but over a balanced portfolio others make up for it.In my portfolio the loss on Centrica so far is 12 weeks dividends on my portfolio,i can live with that.Examples,Iv got ladders in Royal Mail because i see fantastic risk/reward.They cover every address in the UK and today they make 0.24p a household profit a week.I think with inflation,investment,and growth in parcels they can increase that by a lot.My inflation road map and other things iv used says 0.74p profit per household by 2027.My roadmap says £8 a share likely.Could that be wrong?,yes very much.Do i trust myself to be right more than wrong across a portfolio that might hold 30 stocks?,yes i do.

The hardest part of investing is not to be whipsawed by the market.Whats just happened in the PM space shows that.It was very difficult sticking £30k into the likes of Harmony when everyone was saying it was down down and out.Eldorado smacking you for 50% red,but the stocks were spring loaded for a turn.My favourite tracker of all is sentiment.When that gets to lows as liquidity turns your close to bottom.Sentiment in the UK domestic market is as low as iv ever seen right now.Im happy to ladder into that in dividend plays and wait for something to trigger the turn.

 

The reflation/value stocks in the UK and many in the US wont turn as quickly,but i do think the market is chasing the wrong areas and has missed the inflection point.

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The reflation/value stocks in the UK and many in the US wont turn as quickly,but i do think the market is chasing the wrong areas and has missed the inflection point.

Hope so but what with stuff like the current HSBC thing and waiting for the next financial blow up (with depositor buy ins), I would rather own individual stocks right now, dividends, etc besides.  Only stress is waiting for the buy signals.  I do sometimes succumb and buy off plan, usually at a cost!

[Bricks & Mortar]

Seems we haven't minted any copper coins this year.  But don't worry.  We're not phasing them out, or changing the 'mix' of coins and notes...

I did some further digging, and found they stopped increasing the amount of bank notes in circulation these last couple years.  I guess that explains it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49275300
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/banknote

[Barnsey]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-repossessions/home-repossession-claims-in-england-wales-highest-in-more-than-four-years-idUKKCN1UY1BU

Quote

LONDON (Reuters) - Mortgage lenders’ claims for home repossession in England and Wales rose to the highest since late 2014 during the three months to June, according to official data that add to concern about households’ finances.

Britain’s Ministry of Justice recorded 6,179 claims in county courts for repossession, a 39% rise compared with a year ago and the biggest annual increase since the financial crisis.

“Such a large jump, topping the year-on-year rise seen in the final quarter of last year, raises fears serious financial strain among households is on an upward trajectory once again,” said Tim Waterlow, development director of mortgage provider Responsible Lending.

 

[Barnsey]

6 minutes ago, Tdog said:

If you look at an historic chart the numbers of repossessions are extremely low.

Trend is your friend, yes repossessions have been very low and steady of late, but this upward move not insignificant, and demonstrates real financial stress building despite mortgage rates being at record lows. 

[dgul]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Folks, a question on Fresnillio. (Dec. I own some). It is currently c. 50% below 2018 prices when silver was last 17 an oz, and gold was lower. I get that it missed earnings, but it hasn't participated in this rally at all. Production guidance dropped only a few %. Smells like am overreaction to me. RSI, Stochs, MACD all low and turning up.

I know its not a sexy name with you guys on here, so is there something I'm missing?! Time to take profits in Harmony (up 89%, hat tip to DB), and thinking of redeploying here.

Thoughts? P/E too high?

 

Fres isn't normal at the moment.   I'd agree that it has all been an overreaction and have invested accordingly -- but there's also geopolitical risk which muddies things somewhat. 

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also, anyone into wood/timber in a future inflationary cycle? I love it as a product, and I think it'll gain share on cement like gas will on coal, especially if carbon pricing comes in. I have a Pictet wood fund in my SIPP, and am tempted to buy Weyerhaeuser in my ISA but am holding off as it got seriously blasted in the last crash. If that happens again I'll be going in, balls deep!

Thoughs are welcome. I personally enjoy cutting snd chopping timber so I may have biases to be checked.

You might imagine that timber would be a play on the state of the global economy (construction, household goods, etc), so by the playbook you'd imagine it would get crushed on a market crash, then recover strongly with a reflation.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

CP, i been watching Fresnillio of late, cos i'm a TIGHT-WAD...hoping it will get to around its year low of 5.70 before buying...

however looking at the chart it could break that and go down all the way to £1.20 NO? ...who knows maybe mystic meg?

I remember very well when it was around this price in 2008 when i had my old finspread acc, (spread-betting) i only wanted to bet £1 p/point BUT ...didn't pull the frigging trigger, ONLY to watch it ROCKET to over £20 quid lol!

[dgul]

12 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

CP, i been watching Fresnillio of late, cos i'm a TIGHT-WAD...hoping it will get to around its year low of 5.70 before buying...

however looking at the chart it could break that and go down all the way to £1.20 NO? ...who knows maybe mystic meg?

I remember very well when it was around this price in 2008 when i had my old finspread acc, (spread-betting) i only wanted to bet £1 p/point BUT ...didn't pull the frigging trigger, ONLY to watch it ROCKET to over £20 quid lol!

It is difficult to know where we are.  I'd suggest that we're more like 2016 atm, but with the proviso that a 2008 could be just around the corner.

[Barnsey]

The Germans have finally caved into spending money, reflation QE on the way disguised by green energy agenda! Big move.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1UY1O3

Germany is mulling a fiscal policy U-turn and considering ditching its long cherished balanced budget goal by issuing new debt to finance a costly climate protection package, a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

[Festival]

On 07/08/2019 at 14:49, Festival said:

Anyone else feel like TLT is likely to top here or at least put in an interim top until a stocks bear market is in full swing? The long bond has risen very fast and feels ahead of where I was expecting it to be -142 today and rising 1-2% a day now for a while. Either that or stocks are about to come down heavily?

Thanks for peoples responses - i sold 50% of the holding in the end with the intention of buying back if it falls 7-8% into the high 120's. Looks like a number of you beat me to it selling TLT and its sisters IBTL and IDTL. Its difficult to see many other places to run to when the proverbial hits the fan other than UST and the dollar though but I'm trusting the yield curve that we are not there yet.

[A_P]

Just reading the freetrade forum as I saw online that Robinhood have won a license to operate in the UK. Will be interesting to see what proposition they bring over to our shores. Could be a good shakeup and across the whole field with some of the brokers who are charging far too much now for basic trades.

Anyway in the thread someone posted this.