Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

x2 etc are only for short term trading,days or weeks really as they charge a fee every day for the puts and calls they have to buy and sell in the market.In affect if you hold that x2 for long enough your stake will go to zero because of the massive fees.x2,x4 etc are only for short term traders and will skint 99% of the people who hold them.If you want a leveraged play on platinum it would of been better to buy Sibanye.I mean this in a friendly way,and for everyone else,but i doubt more than one or two on this thread should be anywhere near those kind of funds,including myself.

Thanks DB, I live and learn (and made small amount so nothing lost). Unfortunately I couldn't buy Sibanye earlier in the year as Halifax don't do them. I have since also opened a HargreavesLansdown account but did miss the buy opportunity for Sibanye.  

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks DB, I live and learn (and made small amount so nothing lost). Unfortunately I couldn't buy Sibanye earlier in the year as Halifax don't do them. I have since also opened a HargreavesLansdown account but did miss the buy opportunity for Sibanye.  

you sure? im certain i bought sibayne 4 adr thru lloyds(ie halifax wrapped)... let me just try...

 

.. yes, theyll deal them to me  via international if i want them;

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks DB, I live and learn (and made small amount so nothing lost). Unfortunately I couldn't buy Sibanye earlier in the year as Halifax don't do them. I have since also opened a HargreavesLansdown account but did miss the buy opportunity for Sibanye.  

I missed a lot of it too as i was over-exposed in SA miners.I saw a big bounce in platinum but didnt buy many.

[A_P]

29 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

As if by magic, and as per your calls months ago, BBC today has an article confirming incoming massive infrastructure spend in the next budget.

Have you got a link I can't see anything on the website other than the extra for £2b for brexit? 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

LPLA will decay, as other have said. Thar said, it should have done better. But yeah after the big move I switched into physical. I just felt it was very oversold, but as other said, I'm not sure I leveraged it that much. What price did you buy LPLA at? Mine didnt decay anywhere near that, and I made I think 18%

Thanks CP, I sold LPLA today and it returned just 2%. Perhaps I was late in buying it - I bought it 1st July at $2.91. 

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, A_P said:

Have you got a link I can't see anything on the website other than the extra for £2b for brexit? 

Wish I'd taken a screenshot. The headline and content have been changed to illicit Brexit-bashing rather than any info about infrastructure spending on road, rail and information connectivity.

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks DB, I live and learn (and made small amount so nothing lost). Unfortunately I couldn't buy Sibanye earlier in the year as Halifax don't do them. I have since also opened a HargreavesLansdown account but did miss the buy opportunity for Sibanye.  

You need to sign up for international trading with Halifax. Send a request and you will have to answer a few questions , ie you are not trading other peoples money etc, etc.

I had to do that to trade the PMs on the NYSE.

[JMD]

27 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

you sure? im certain i bought sibayne 4 adr thru lloyds(ie halifax wrapped)... let me just try...

 

.. yes, theyll deal them to me  via international if i want them;

 

Leonardratso, your correct, I just checked Halifax and they do Sibanye. Perhaps this is a new addition as I looked for this stock back in January, or perhaps I just missed it at the time. Big shame for me... as I would have bought it because many here were proposing it as a good buy.  

[JMD]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You need to sign up for international trading with Halifax. Send a request and you will have to answer a few questions , ie you are not trading other peoples money etc, etc.

I had to do that to trade the PMs on the NYSE.

Bob, oh that might explain things!! Thank you for jogging my memory. I'm pretty sure I couldn't find Sibanye back in Jan. when I looked, but since then Halifax did prompt me to sign up for international trading. I did that and when I checked today I can now buy Sibanye.  

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

LPLA will decay, as other have said. Thar said, it should have done better. But yeah after the big move I switched into physical. I just felt it was very oversold, but as other said, I'm not sure I leveraged it that much. What price did you buy LPLA at? Mine didnt decay anywhere near that, and I made I think 18%

You might be better off buying a CFD/spread bet. They’ll charge you a made up daily funding charge, but you just have to put down a 10% margin. 

[leonardratso]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Leonardratso, your correct, I just checked Halifax and they do Sibanye. Perhaps this is a new addition as I looked for this stock back in January, or perhaps I just missed it at the time. Big shame for me... as I would have bought it because many here were proposing it as a good buy.  

im sure i bought it last year, im going to have to check now just to make sure im not imagining (my whole life up to this point).

 

aha..

Bought for 175p in jun

sold in oct for 227p.

See - i knew i wasnt mad.

 

[DownwardSpiral]

Great thread. I wish I could pop in more often and keep up to date but dipping in and out will have to do for now!

Have been watching quite a few gold/silver/deflation/hyperinflation type videos on YouTube lately and one of the videos mentioned the possibility of mines being nationalised when the SHTF. I don’t know if this has been discussed on the thread already but given that I am considering whether or not to enter mining stocks (I already hold physical silver) I wonder what the thoughts are on whether that is a genuine prospect and what the implication would be. Cheers!!

[Castlevania]

Just now, DownwardSpiral said:

Great thread. I wish I could pop in more often and keep up to date but dipping in and out will have to do for now!

Have been watching quite a few gold/silver/deflation/hyperinflation type videos on YouTube lately and one of the videos mentioned the possibility of mines being nationalised when the SHTF. I don’t know if this has been discussed on the thread already but given that I am considering whether or not to enter mining stocks (I already hold physical silver) I wonder what the thoughts are on whether that is a genuine prospect and what the implication would be. Cheers!!

Diversify geographically. See what happened to Acacia when they fell foul of the Tanzanian government.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wise words @dgul this really isn't the time to get greedy, there are no certainties, just when you think things are going your way finally is when you get kicked in the ballsack. Always think "what if" and don''t use leverage, I can't bring myself to short either.

I don't have much skin in the game, just started my regular investments, which I've now upped to 16 stocks, big thanks to many of you for the ideas (you may think a couple are mad but these are averaging in over a long time so i'm looking well ahead to reflation and ageing demographics):

Royal Mail

BT

Vodafone

Centrica

SSE

William Hill

Playtech

NewRiver

British Land

Balfour Beatty

Fresnillo

Imperial Brands

Tui

SAGA

Stagecoach

Standard Life Aberdeen

Looks like a familiar list!  I hold many but not all.  Also manage a second div portfolio where I hold equivalents like LandSec(!), BATS, etc.  I see you're out of financials.  I hold some insurers (life and casualty).  SAGA seems brave but maybe time for me to take another look (been a while), plus Tui, Playtech, NewRiver, etc.  Anyways thanks for sharing, DYOR, etc all understood.

PS:  I use my own sector allocation so hold William Hill in one portfolio and IG Index as an equivalent in the other!  Yes, spread betting for me is closer to gambling!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

As if by magic, and as per your calls months ago, BBC today has an article confirming incoming massive infrastructure spend in the next budget.

Thoughts anyone on good (preferably good divi) plays for infrastructure?

Individual shares, Investment Trust, Fund or ETF?

[Bricks & Mortar]

12 minutes ago, DownwardSpiral said:

Have been watching quite a few gold/silver/deflation/hyperinflation type videos on YouTube lately and one of the videos mentioned the possibility of mines being nationalised when the SHTF. I don’t know if this has been discussed on the thread already but given that I am considering whether or not to enter mining stocks (I already hold physical silver) I wonder what the thoughts are on whether that is a genuine prospect and what the implication would be. Cheers!!

 

15 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Diversify geographically. See what happened to Acacia when they fell foul of the Tanzanian government.

I've gone with a strong bias toward North American miners, operating in Can, US and Mex.  I can't say they won't get nationalised, but I'm thinking its least likely in these countries, and if it did happen the shareholders are most likely to be compensated.  I shoulda looked at Australia as well, but didn't.  Regret that now.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Harley said:

Thoughts anyone on good (preferably good divi) plays for infrastructure?

Individual shares, Investment Trust, Fund or ETF?

BT.Government will regulate more lightly and allow them higher returns to invest.I think a lot of the investment will be private sector with government throwing sweeteners.Transport for instance they might scrap the present train system for a one that provides more incentives.

In the US something like Energy Transfer LP units might do well.Its really tricky to invest in plays direct as some of the winners might not make it to the reflation bit.

[Castlevania]

9 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

I've gone with a strong bias toward North American miners, operating in Can, US and Mex.  I can't say they won't get nationalised, but I'm thinking its least likely in these countries, and if it did happen the shareholders are most likely to be compensated.  I shoulda looked at Australia as well, but didn't.  Regret that now.

Sensible but you arguably pay a premium. Russian gold miners for example trade at a big discount on most measures to their North American counterparts. But then if that discount remains it doesn’t matter. You might get a smaller dividend cheque, but I doubt you bought into the sector for  income.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

BT......

Ta. 

I bought an opening position In BT a few weeks ago and am now waiting for a buying signal.

I have GOG and SGC but and awaiting further buy signals.

Maybe the perverse housebuilder strength is expecting more butter!

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

I may be wrong, but doesn't the 'daily' aspect of LPLA means it resets daily i.e. you aren't getting the benefit of accumulated gains, but get the crappiness of daily drops doubled? I've deliberately stayed away from these for that reason, in that I don't have time to do stuff on a daily basis.

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks IB for the tips. APD looks interesting. I will be selling my own ITPS imminently.

Don't take that as a recommendation of it being a good time to sell them - I sold the ITPS as I wanted the cash for other things that I thought were a good time to buy! I was about 13% up on them but am still holding some.

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, Harley said:

 

PS:  I use my own sector allocation so hold William Hill in one portfolio and IG Index as an equivalent in the other!  Yes, spread betting for me is closer to gambling!

There’s a reason why it’s not called spread investing!

[Harley]

Just did my quick portfolio review for the week from a momentum POV.  Boring (probably no action for me next week) but at least the indicators are heading in the right direction.  Many stocks have turned down or already have low momentum.  A select few may have finished their uptrend pullbacks.  Pound still looking weak but thank heavens for PMs!  So far so good for platinum as palladium fades a bit but let's see.  Emerging cup and handle in Bitcoin (in USD)?  VIX up 45% last week and another 2% this week.  Maybe unusual to get a small uptick like this (usually continues strongly up or a small pullback) but then the main indices look a bit whatever.  Bonds continuing to walk away from me!  7% pop in GDX for the week and nice to see SIL more or less keeping up.  MACDs still strong but it's the last to fall.  Oil again pulled back to a rising trendline but will it hold?  CRB down again.  Willing industrial metals on but they seem uncertain.  A mixed bag with the underlyings all over the place.  Mixed bag on softs with SOIL a bit listless.  But don't listen to me and DYOR or lose money!  Rain forecast + boring = research (need more divi stocks)!  But then life is full of surprises!

[Harley]

Interesting factoid - HL made a third of it's profit from interest on client monies.  At least it shares some of it with its clients, unlike some other brokers.

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I notice BT went ex divi yesterday, I need to do some research on them, wondering if they might make a good long hold income stock for retirement. Im sure they must have massive pension liabilities, i have several neighbors on a BT pension.

Q. Say last eligible divi day is 1st Aug, so from 2nd Aug does share price drop by value of divi payout iregardless of when divi payout is actually made I.e it could be paid on say 8th Aug?

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Interesting factoid - HL made a third of it's profit from interest on client monies.  At least it shares some of it with its clients, unlike some other brokers.

That raises a couple queries. How much money do people keep in their accounts? Suggests accounts aren’t segregated?