Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That raises a couple queries. How much money do people keep in their accounts? Suggests accounts aren’t segregated?

I'm sure they say they are.  It's on cash balances and dividends.  Huge sums.

https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2019/08/09/interest-on-client-cash-behind-third-of-hargreaves-profits/

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Q. Say last eligible divi day is 1st Aug, so from 2nd Aug does share price drop by value of divi payout iregardless of when divi payout is actually made I.e it could be paid on say 8th Aug?

Share price usually drops before the open on the morning they trade ex dividend then go from there.Once ex dividend you dont get the dividend.Many years ago i had a £10k pot i used to buy the big divi payers in the week before they went ex divi on a down day and buy back once they made back 3/4s of the divi drop.So if a share paid a 15p divi i bought it and once it recovered 10p after falling 15p when the divi was paid i sold.Used to made 2%/3% and it worked really well.Only did it in FTSE 100 stocks though not smaller companies.Doesnt work as well in bear markets like now though,but it will when markets are rising again.

[Dogtania]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Interesting factoid - HL made a third of it's profit from interest on client monies.  At least it shares some of it with its clients, unlike some other brokers.

Was reading something about that too, kind of surprising such a big share of profits in low interest environment.

The article was reading was comparing to some of the upstart banks like Monzo or may have been free trade etc who i don't think are making profit but hope too.  I guess what there saying is such a large portion of the profits at HL come from the fees that they charge for holding funds and large portfolios rather than individual share dealing fees (neither of which free trade or Monzo - albeit different companies- make)

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49302996

Kick the utility sector so their margins get tiny,end up with power cuts.

Its a lot less damaging for government to add £30 on someones bill a year than to face these headlines.Just another example of why margins are too low and why that means the backbone of the economy needs investment.

 

[A_P]

Article reads a bit like a sales pitch to me. The average account has what? £8k cash in it? Hardly newsworthy they pass on bit of interest, they're not the only one to do so. Given their trading costs, fx fees and general costs i would hope they wuold.

I'm sure they're going to start seeing a bit of competition in the next few years now that Robinhood are coming over. I became aware of M1 Finance yesterday which really knocks it out of the park. Just goes to show how far they are behind over here. AJ Bells app although does the job, is quite laughable given its 2019. To add II's app looks better but you can't even see your cash transactions or if dividends have been paid. Ludicrous 

[Bear Hug]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Share price usually drops before the open on the morning they trade ex dividend then go from there.Once ex dividend you dont get the dividend.Many years ago i had a £10k pot i used to buy the big divi payers in the week before they went ex divi on a down day and buy back once they made back 3/4s of the divi drop.So if a share paid a 15p divi i bought it and once it recovered 10p after falling 15p when the divi was paid i sold.Used to made 2%/3% and it worked really well.Only did it in FTSE 100 stocks though not smaller companies.Doesnt work as well in bear markets like now though,but it will when markets are rising again.

Would the opposite strategy work in a bear? These could be cheaper to execute now with low fee brokers.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49302996

Kick the utility sector so their margins get tiny,end up with power cuts.

Its a lot less damaging for government to add £30 on someones bill a year than to face these headlines.Just another example of why margins are too low and why that means the backbone of the economy needs investment.

 

Rebecca wants to kick NG

Quote

Shadow business and energy secretary Rebecca Long Bailey said the impact of the power cut was "unacceptable" at a time when National Grid reported £1.8bn in profits and increased dividends to shareholders

 

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Rebecca wants to kick NG

 

Rebecca is Labour, she wants free money.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Rebecca is Labour, she wants free money.

Naughty Rebecca.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Rebecca wants to kick NG

 

Rebecca wants power. 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Tdog said:

She may well have a point as they are a monopoly dishing out money to shareholders and not bothering to run a competent business.

I work on pipelines from time to time and this company has more pointless staff doing absolutely nothing than any company i've ever come across, by many times.

I worked on a £100m pipeline project job for them that in any other country would have half a dozen welders, a couple of welding inspectors, a foreman and several others thrown in for good measure working out of a few containers. This project has circa 150 office workers  on site in vast temporary offices where roads and a car park were built especially, not to mention those involved at their main offices. Along with the 6 welders, few welding inspectors and foreman! 

The waste is truly sickening.

I suppose 'kick' wasn't the right word, Rebecca might want to 'pet' it with Labour planning to nationalise it.

 

[Harley]

I buy what's on the market but in this case I would rather have cheap, efficient and reliable energy.  I don't know the answers but privatisation is not the panacea it was billed to be and I feel a bit cheated.  But nor was nationalisation the cuddly thing some now make out.  Anyways, not so much about the form as the ability to set policy, regulate and deliver, most of the actors involved seeming to not be up to this difficult job for which they are still very well paid.  Politicised for gain, like the NHS and many others.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Tdog said:

Its just jobs for the usual suspects who went to the right schools and know how to keep their head well below the parapet.

Still wonder if it'll affect the share price on Monday, could be a time to buy!  if Boris wins the impending election can see the share prices of former utilities going through the roof and the opposite if Corbyn wins.

I much prefer SSE to National Grid.They own electricity networks,but also some very interesting producing assets and cables.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I much prefer SSE to National Grid.They own electricity networks,but also some very interesting producing assets and cables.

Looks like they want to keep the cables not the retail side.

SSE confirms it is in talks with OVO to sell energy retail business

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Looks like they want to keep the cables not the retail side.

SSE confirms it is in talks with OVO to sell energy retail business

Yes they have been wanting out a long time.Not sure they will get a good price,but possible it was loss making,so a good move.SSE is far better as an energy/network play.I hope in time they use their hydro for storing wind power,UKs biggest batteries.Iv been wanting to buy some more,got last ladder at £10.39,so have to see if they go lower at some point.

[Errol]

 

[No One]

I just posted on the main page. There are some many stories now about a coming recession.

 

It's coming boys, get ready

[JMD]

On ‎09‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 19:18, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Don't take that as a recommendation of it being a good time to sell them - I sold the ITPS as I wanted the cash for other things that I thought were a good time to buy! I was about 13% up on them but am still holding some.

IB, thanks for taking time to clarify, but i had decided to sell ITPS soon anyway. 

[Bricks & Mortar]

Maybe there really isn't so much free money in peoples pockets...
I always buy my working jeans 2nd hand on ebay.  Go for brands like Levi or Wrangler, for the denim quality, not the label.  Usually £12-£15 including postage and miss out on quite a few at that rate.  . I tried a new strategy.  I set a limit of £11 inc post, and bid on 17 different pairs.  So far, 6 have finished and I've won 4, all between £6 and £10.  Guess I'll be following db's strategy of stocking up then.
-------------
There is indeed a new round of economic doomsaying.   I think the number of commentators predicting we go straight to inflation from here outnumbers those who countenance a deflation hypothesis by several orders, (I mean inflation/deflation of the gold/silver price, specifically, as I'm 100% invested in that for the moment.  Yeah, like all the wealth/savings I have in the world outside of my business!)  I think the present rise in pm prices is mostly driven by people in the inflation camp now, with deflationists left or plotting an exit.  And I think there's potentially a large effect on my wealth if I do the right or wrong thing here.  I fear an event that crystallises the future and starts either panic-buying, or panic-selling of the pm's.
I don't think it's imminent, but I plan to sell 1/3 before the next fed meeting mid-September.  And another 1/3 before Fed meeting end of October, if not sooner.  The last 1/3 I'll leave in, in case we go straight to inflation - probably in 2 or 3 mining shares - whichever I think is least risky - need to check out debt levels.  My guess is October for fireworks - based on traditional crash season as seasonal affective disorder takes hold.

 

[JMD]

My question might appear bit convoluted but all comments would be greatly received. I know investment decisions should not be made for tax reasons, but if silver prices do fly, putting some thought into this type of scenario might prove very productive. 

Following the thread ethos, I personally now have a substantial holding of silver Britannia coins, bought mainly because of no cgt when it comes to selling. I've recently been looking into buying silver bars as price/oz is cheaper than equivalent in silver coin. However, there is cgt due when selling silver bars.

My question is: are there legitimate ways to avoid paying cgt when selling silver bars? I'm not asking for ways to evade tax. Instead, are there 'clever' - not widely known - ways to structure the sale of large silver bars... i.e. in future if/when I decided to sell, for example a 5kg silver bar, could I legally avoid a potential large cgt charge by 'exchanging' my 5kg bar for a 4kg bar from the buyer and therefore effectively only selling 1kg of silver to the buyer?

Even if the above was possible I accept it may appear overly complicated (and if such a scheme was currently available it might not be in future under different HMRC regime) and also probably restricts selling through high-end retail concerns so reducing profit gains. But if there are ways to sell silver - and keep below cgt threshold in order to reduce cgt liabilities - I would be very interested to learn more from silver bugs here.               

[Noallegiance]

8 hours ago, No One said:

 

It's coming boys, get ready

.....and girls, ladies, gentlemen, the undecided, the alphabet soupers, and the confused.

Tut tut.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

My question might appear bit convoluted but all comments would be greatly received.....

I know of no legal ways to avoid CGT on silver sales that are not CGT exempt (Britannias) except maybe spread betting (but that's not physical) and ISAs and the like.  That's not to say there aren't, just I don't know. 

However, my understanding (unless things have changed) is each person has their own sizeable annual allowance (presumably an issue if someone had a large indivisable bar), can set off other capital lossess, and can carry forward capital lossess for a few years.  Plus the rate is not too high, at the moment. 

Or maybe someone could leave the country for a no tax one long enough before sale!  I heard some folk went to live in Belgium to avoid tax on other things (not sure it's possible any longer and wherever, you may now have to be out of the UK for a long time).  Personally, I would rather had paid the tax!  But then if PMs went high enough maybe that would signal severe enough other problems to leave.  But then again where?  I've lived in some already dangerous countries, like one where machete attacks were the norm!  The UK my be getting more like them but they could have become even worse! 

There are various guidance notes on the HRMC website.  Interested to hear any other better informed comments.....

[Castlevania]

I can’t think of any other than “don’t tell the taxman”. If you do want to go down that route it might be easier if you hold said bars offshore and also sell offshore. Although that also throws up issues around VAT. In theory both silver coins and bars are subject to VAT, but only if you take possession. It’s at that point you’re liable for VAT so if they’ve gone up in value you’d be subject to paying more in VAT.

Probably best to man up and pay. You can always put some money in a pension to offset any tax due.

[Bricks & Mortar]

How those lovely, cuddly, landlords we all know and love manage to get by...
https://www.lovemoney.com/guides/5090/how-to-avoid-capital-gains-tax-by-using-your-taxfree-allowance-spreading

 

[kibuc]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

My question might appear bit convoluted but all comments would be greatly received. I know investment decisions should not be made for tax reasons, but if silver prices do fly, putting some thought into this type of scenario might prove very productive. 

Following the thread ethos, I personally now have a substantial holding of silver Britannia coins, bought mainly because of no cgt when it comes to selling. I've recently been looking into buying silver bars as price/oz is cheaper than equivalent in silver coin. However, there is cgt due when selling silver bars.

My question is: are there legitimate ways to avoid paying cgt when selling silver bars? I'm not asking for ways to evade tax. Instead, are there 'clever' - not widely known - ways to structure the sale of large silver bars... i.e. in future if/when I decided to sell, for example a 5kg silver bar, could I legally avoid a potential large cgt charge by 'exchanging' my 5kg bar for a 4kg bar from the buyer and therefore effectively only selling 1kg of silver to the buyer?

Even if the above was possible I accept it may appear overly complicated (and if such a scheme was currently available it might not be in future under different HMRC regime) and also probably restricts selling through high-end retail concerns so reducing profit gains. But if there are ways to sell silver - and keep below cgt threshold in order to reduce cgt liabilities - I would be very interested to learn more from silver bugs here.               

I believe if you dispose of CGT-taxable items but re-purchase it within 30-days window, in some cases it does not trigger tax liability (or advantage).

The reason for this rule was to prevent people from selling their positions just to bank some taxable losses (to offset them against gains in other investments) or to trigger CGT liability while still under tax-free threshold, but then immediately re-purchasing their position.
 

So I would look into tax implications of selling your 5kg silver bar but then buying a 4kg one within 30 days.

https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Adviser/literature-and-support/knowledge-direct/individual-taxation/capital-gains-tax/30-day-bed-and-breakfast-rules-and-cgt/