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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Not investing advice, DYOR, only for discussion purposes, etc.....

Momentum is just one signal and is no silver bullet but here's the monthly BT chart.

After a blip, still going down but maybe getting a lot closer to a bottom.

Currently about 67% down from last peak.

I opened a position at the Jun18 blip (had a weekly buy signal) but that's weekly data for you (a weekly low, but not a monthly one!).

Question is, can I (should I) wait until the monthly turns or do I get in probably earlier on a weekly buy signal?

Many of the usual suspects are like this one.

Capture.thumb.JPG.b8fb74e59c68fc99d5f75d47a289cde7.JPG

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

In the UK a lot,by the end of the next cycle i expect a lot of the blue chips getting smashed to treble or more before dividends.However they could keep falling a while yet as the market is shaken out.Everything is proceeding as expected,the only thing now is for the governments to start to inject liquidity.The market hasnt any sniff that the next cycle will be a full on reflation,and they wont until we are well in to it.So the stocks that will gain might continue down in the short term.

One sector i think is very very cheap is telcos.The next cycle will suit them as their investment cycle slows just as inflation runs higher.Key will be if they can pay off debt as it comes due.Their bond holders will take a bath though.

Pretty much all the UK consumer cyclical sector is now very cheap.The transports etc should be big winners going forward.The next cycle will be the first one in a very long time where car ownership levels fall.Second hand car sales will even start to fall at the same time as new cars do.The cyclical sector will also start to gain when everyone wakes up to the fact sterling is going to go up from here,not down.

Once the shake out happens i will be buying some insurers who have taken on final salary pension schemes etc because gilt yields will rise a lot through the cycle,so they should be able to release lots of cash for shareholders as the liabilities get cheaper to fund.Companies are offloading them at the worst point in the cycle.Legal and General will clean up,but they need to get through a credit deflation first.

Quote
AGREE!
 
Listening to LBC radio on Monday evening the £/$ hits its lowest point since brexit 1.2017...and the financial tart that comes on from the FT was going on about the RECORD amount of SHORTS on £ sterling...
 
I'd say the BELL has RUNG for the bottom for the... 'ol £!
 
YEP £ up over 160 points (1.2167) since Mondays low 1.2017, was thinking about opening an acc with cmc as you can bet with them @ 50p a point on currencies, so on £ ... chuck in £200 into the acc ...that gives me 400 points to set me stop loss @ 1.617 ...AND either go for BUST or £ goes UP, up...up and just keep rolling the contract over until 2027 HA-ha!
 
Just managed to CASH my pension in, which was NO easy feat with the company i had it with, my pension pot was valued at £4K more going back a few weeks - however as markets dived in the last few days, i got less, however imagine the POOR buggers who will have to cash in when markets are dire, pensions really are pot luck for most...
 
Anyway...taking part as a fixed monthly income, plus with part-time work (scavenging scrap metal thats me below ;- ) this will keep me just under the annual tax threshold!:D
 
image.jpeg.aca744edc9a907ca6dcbc0205bd4fdec.jpeg
 
...when i turn 67 will get the GOV pension if there is anything left:o
 
I will also have a smallesh lump sum left from the fixed monthly income pot, this i intend to buy an annuity,as per this thread IR should be in double figures in 10...12 years, if that is the case would annuity rates be a LOT higher than they are now, and more to the point if IR were 10% would annuity rates be close to that?
 
I asked this question: "if IR were 10% would annuity rates be close to that?" ...to the FA that i was dealing with a few weeks back AND he did NOT have a clue! ...Did i ever mention on this thread that i didn't like FA's!:Old:
 
@DurhamBornOr anyone here, can YOU answer the above question, THANKS!:D
 
 
 
 
 
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Not investing advice, DYOR, only for discussion purposes, etc.....

Talking of regional sectors, here is a chart of monthly data for a number of regional ETFs (in GBP), mostly Vanguard, showing the percentage change since they were all available.

No Russian or African GBP ETF seems to be available, but maybe included in the Emerging Market one.  

Capture.thumb.JPG.acedba14eae22115c353bbbfdfe99b4e.JPG

I believe this is correct:

VUSA (S&P): 116%

VWRL (Global): 68%

VJPN (Japan): 56%

VERX (Europe): 34%

VAPX (AsiaPac): 22%

VFEM (Emerging): 21%

VUKE (FTSE100): 2%

LTAM (South America): -10%

The majority of the individual charts don't look hugely different from each other, with the MACD and stochastic indicators easing a bit, or at least pulling back.

And do we have an emerging megaphone chart pattern forming in the FTSE.....

Capture2.thumb.JPG.89958532145707771d4b5d493298199d.JPG

This definition sounds a bit plausible:

https://bullishbears.com/megaphone-patterns/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broadeningformation.asp

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Annuity rates will be higher,but you dont even need one if they are,youl be able to buy long dates US treasuries and or gilts and get the same affect.Inside a SIPP you can even draw it down.Simply divide by the number of years left until death,youl have to guess at that one though xD,.The pension at work allows 4 funds,mostly trackers and beyond bad.I feel sorry for people in them to be honest,but then they take no interest in them so i guess they deserve it.

Iv just had a phone call from a pharma company offering me a £48k job and only 17 miles away.I declined though.I said id consider it if it was £12k and i could work one day a week.There was a long bit of silence xD.I cant imagine anything worse than sitting through gut wrenching corporate meetings and talk.Horrid.Il stay where i am building engines until the work collapses and i get the bullet.Bottom of the pile suits me just fine.

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Just now, Harley said:

In GBP?  KID?

No Global X funds,i used to use them a lot over the years.Hopefully when out of the EU things will change.

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@Harley

VFEM has 7% in africa. iirc HSBC have a russia etf.

Also something to consider when comparing is the TR and yield. VUKE is probably yielding 4.5% whereas VWRL is likely 2%. Additionally im not sure whether using the FTSE 100 is worthwhile these days, FTAS is where the growth performance is

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So apart from VOD,,BT ,SSE,RM and Stagecoach , any other shares worth buying for medium to long term, ive invested in PMS this month, think gold might reduce in price so waiting for that event, got some platinum and a large horde of silver.

 

what mining shares would anyone recommend buying now that might go up? I am happy to sit on shares, initially looking to invest a grand or two, that means couple grand in PMs, then add shares and have pension and cash savings, house is paid off.

 

thanks, want to keep ahead of the curve:)

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2 minutes ago, Sman said:

So apart from VOD,,BT ,SSE,RM and Stagecoach , any other shares worth buying for medium to long term, ive invested in PMS this month, think gold might reduce in price so waiting for that event, got some platinum and a large horde of silver.

 

what mining shares would anyone recommend buying now that might go up? I am happy to sit on shares, initially looking to invest a grand or two, that means couple grand in PMs, then add shares and have pension and cash savings, house is paid off.

 

thanks, want to keep ahead of the curve:)

People cant really give advice Sman,names are mentioned as talking points.It all depends on other parts of your portfolio,risk,etc etc and people make up their own minds into how to invest.In investing its always best to remember you can be very very wrong and thats why being diverse is important.

Inexperienced people will say "Centrica is down 60%",not Centrica has cost my portfolio 0.4% of performance.Portfolios should be looked at as a whole,and insured as a whole.Iv always found buying in several ladders the way that suits me best.

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5 minutes ago, A_P said:

iirc HSBC have a russia etf.

Ah, thanks, problem solved.  TradingView shows HRUB when entered direct but not when searching "Russia".  But that's because it only shows the first 100 search results (with no warning!).  All fine when I restrict the search to the LSE.  Nice to know!

Yes, FTAS has done slightly better but would need to check some other parameters.  However, I agree about casting the net wider, especially as I now have all the FTSE100 (and 250) individual holdings I want and am happy to take on more risk(?).  I'm trying to sift through it all.

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3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ah, thanks, problem solved.  TradingView shows HRUB when entered direct but not when searching "Russia".  But that's because it only shows the first 100 search results (with no warning!).  All fine when I restrict the search to the LSE.  Nice to know!

Yes, FTAS has done slightly better but would need to check some other parameters.  However, I agree about casting the net wider, especially as I now have all the FTSE100 (and 250) individual holdings I want and am happy to take on more risk(?).  I'm trying to sift through it all.

Im very similar in having most of the FTSE 350 shares i want with ladders set up.I need to put more work into other markets,bit lacking there to be honest as all work went into the PMs for a year.

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11 minutes ago, Sman said:

So apart from VOD,,BT ,SSE,RM and Stagecoach , any other shares worth buying for medium to long term, ive invested in PMS this month, think gold might reduce in price so waiting for that event, got some platinum and a large horde of silver.

 

what mining shares would anyone recommend buying now that might go up? I am happy to sit on shares, initially looking to invest a grand or two, that means couple grand in PMs, then add shares and have pension and cash savings, house is paid off.

 

thanks, want to keep ahead of the curve:)

I'd highly recommend going back and reading through the thread as much as you can. It's all in here. A wealth of discussion and knowledge from some top brains. Not advice or buying tips, of course, and "DYOR" is the oft used phrase. I've just been catching up on the last 30 pages or so. Took me a few days to absorb but very well worth it. There is plenty of discussion on the miners and reflation stocks within.

This place is an education I am badly in need of :)

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Annuity rates will be higher,but you dont even need one if they are,youl be able to buy long dates US treasuries and or gilts and get the same affect.Inside a SIPP you can even draw it down.Simply divide by the number of years left until death,youl have to guess at that one though xD,.The pension at work allows 4 funds,mostly trackers and beyond bad.I feel sorry for people in them to be honest,but then they take no interest in them so i guess they deserve it.

Iv just had a phone call from a pharma company offering me a £48k job and only 17 miles away.I declined though.I said id consider it if it was £12k and i could work one day a week.There was a long bit of silence xD.I cant imagine anything worse than sitting through gut wrenching corporate meetings and talk.Horrid.Il stay where i am building engines until the work collapses and i get the bullet.Bottom of the pile suits me just fine.

Thanks DB, thats what i thought, i mean look what folks got for buying an annuity back in 1989/ 90 when IR's were 15%!

BTW, just being nosy ...(you can tell me to pi** off xD;-)...what sort of pharma work do ya do that pays 48K ? as i thought you were an engine builder?

48K good moolah, you look at the work that i used to do, 7 years training CNC + manual high precision machining, 35 YEARS in the game... even today the guys in this trade would be lucky to get £26K PA, in SE UK ...one of the compays i worked at F1 xtrac.com CAN NOT even find subcontractors to do their work because it is so complex!

When i was there i would remember guys coming for interviews, and when the manager showed them the parts they made, the job hunter would turn bright RED!xD

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32 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Gonna be a bitch for sterling PMs if £/$ reversed.

Maybe, maybe not but a pullback would be good IMHO.  And if it did due to GBP strength versus a period of weakness then it's doing its job for me.

Here is gold in GBP and USD.  Things currently look good in both currencies, albeit a lot better in a "cheaper" GBP.

Capture.thumb.JPG.1665f5389aefd28c1baf82e6d294521d.JPG

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4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Thanks DB, thats what i thought, i mean look what folks got for buying an annuity back in 1989/ 90 when IR's were 15%!

BTW, just being nosy ...(you can tell me to pi** off xD;-)...what sort of pharma work do ya do that pays 48K ? as i thought you were an engine builder?

48K good moolah, you look at the work that i used to do, 7 years training CNC + manual high precision machining, 35 YEARS in the game... even today the guys in this trade would be lucky to get £26K PA, in SE UK ...one of the compays i worked at F1 xtrac.com CAN NOT even find subcontractors to do their work because it is so complex!

When i was there i would remember guys coming for interviews, and when the manager showed them the parts they made, the job hunter would turn bright RED!xD

I was the highest grade manufacturing technician at Glaxosmithkline,they had grades from 4 to 1,i was a 1.In affect a 1 set up and ran the plant making the active drugs.The other grades worked on packaging machines etc.We would have 2 guys me and someone else on a job making probably £2million a batch of drug.One mistake whole batch lost.I never lost a batch.The job was for QA,i said i wasnt a QA,but they werent bothered,they said they thought my experience was what they wanted.They have a new plant making medical products,not drugs,but wipes etc for surgery,so similar.Setting up and running a pharma plant is similar to building an engine.Its all about understanding getting everything set right,not making mistakes etc.I worked on Zantac and in a room about 30 foot by 30 we knocked out a billion pounds worth of drug a year.(thats making the tablets).

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leonardratso

im basically scalping the gold/silver profits and leaving it in the account to be monthly divided over the other failures (vod/cna/sgc/bt/ptec/sla), i say failures because they are all down by either a bit or a lot. Its a sort of leveller or mechanical division, i do monthly (i suppose as mini ladders) because my impatience would lead to big ins/outs and big fees no doubt, fine in a bull, best way to get to zero in a bear. Also putting them in a regular invester means i only pay £1.50 per trade as opposed to £8 (or £12 before 8 have been done), brings the average a lot closer to nav what with stamp duty always meaning its immediately less. I also tend to like funds best since the losses are slower/auto diversified over the winners, im not greedy, just impatient and doing it this way makes me more patient).

As far as work pensions, ive mentioned before that we have a LANDG auto pension at work, I actually sold out the 100% 'managed pension' and bought back the same fund (zero trading costs) which now allows me to split the pot to other funds and a cash one as well, and also allows me to split the monthly contribution. Still the allowed funds is absolutely dire, and when they revamped the website i 'accidentally' managed to buy an illegal precious metals miners fund (illegal to the pension funds fund), the fuckers noticed and sold me back into a legal fund, i wasnt happy [this was a few months ago before the miners took off], anyways, no real point to all of this, just a bit of an anecdote.

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leonardratso
8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was the highest grade manufacturing technician at Glaxosmithkline,they had grades from 4 to 1,i was a 1.In affect a 1 set up and ran the plant making the active drugs.The other grades worked on packaging machines etc.We would have 2 guys me and someone else on a job making probably £2million a batch of drug.One mistake whole batch lost.I never lost a batch.The job was for QA,i said i wasnt a QA,but they werent bothered,they said they thought my experience was what they wanted.They have a new plant making medical products,not drugs,but wipes etc for surgery,so similar.Setting up and running a pharma plant is similar to building an engine.Its all about understanding getting everything set right,not making mistakes etc.I worked on Zantac and in a room about 30 foot by 30 we knocked out a billion pounds worth of drug a year.(thats making the tablets).

why not just do it but do the same as you have been with your wages (--> straight to the market)?

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Talking of employment.....

Partner just applied for a work-from-home job.  Salary might be rubbish, but not so bad when one looks at the cost and time savings, etc.  This has been talked about a lot but are we finally there now?  Financially, companies won't/can't pay a workable rate say down south so that was a bit of a push but the take-up was muted.  But now with all this crime, the oldies easing up, etc, this may be its time.  Has to be a bit of travel to meet in person to cement the team which is fine as long as they include a stab jacket.  We could see a leapfrogging from a move to outside London (aka the So-Called BBC sort of moving to Media City) to a far more dispersed workforce which would make the move to outside London a bit pedestrian (which would be apt for the So-Called BBC!).  Only worry would be the ease they could then go to a serf workforce (even an international one) - bid for the work, like the old days waiting outside the factory gates.  Plus tribalism.  Only works for knowledge workers (or someone with a 3D printer!) though and not sure how the youngsters get to that point.  Wonder what that means for current companies and those of the future (opportunities).  Anyways, something's gotta give.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im very similar in having most of the FTSE 350 shares i want with ladders set up.I need to put more work into other markets,bit lacking there to be honest as all work went into the PMs for a year.

How many different shares do you currently own and plan to own?

I currently have 23 (which is more than I thought I had, varying between 1% to 10% of my portfolio) and have another dozen or so on my radar. I can’t help but think that’s too many to actively track results/performance, although I’ve learnt the hard way with PM miners the importance of diversification...

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

People cant really give advice Sman,names are mentioned as talking points.It all depends on other parts of your portfolio,risk,etc etc and people make up their own minds into how to invest.In investing its always best to remember you can be very very wrong and thats why being diverse is important.

Inexperienced people will say "Centrica is down 60%",not Centrica has cost my portfolio 0.4% of performance.Portfolios should be looked at as a whole,and insured as a whole.Iv always found buying in several ladders the way that suits me best.

thanks Durhamborn, will take that advice on board:)

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48 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

How many different shares do you currently own and plan to own?

For me, my aim for my income portfolio is 25 with 4% of portfolio value in each holding and no duplicate sector holdings unless that 4% gets too large in £x terms or the price of a holding precludes further purchases (and I buy a substitute). 

I currently have about 19 holdings, hence the need to expand my net.  I may have to view small caps and/or foreign stocks differently from my current UK large caps to get to 25 with that sector rule.

My balanced portfolio has different rules as it is currently ETF based, although I may use funds and trusts too.  I choose ETFs to limit a holding in any one beyond £x and in total beyond £x for a given provider. 

My asset allocation rules also determine the number of my holdings.  I have four asset classes and then allocate within these (e.g PMs allocated down to gold and silver, bonds and equity down to region, etc).  So maybe 20 atm, maybe more as I invest more and hit those £x ceilings.

Others?

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